今日早盘，科技成长板块集体走强，截至午间收盘，国证成长100指数上涨2.4%，国证自由现金流指数上涨0.6%，国证价值100指数上涨0.3%。 华西证券表示，2026年是多个正面因素叠加的"大年"，牛市基础仍扎实，且春季躁动已提前演绎，关注新兴成长和反内卷周期机遇。 成长ETF易方达 跟踪国证成长100指数 该指数E 该指数由A股成长风格突出的 截至午间收盘 该指数 该指数涨跌 滚动市盈率 发布以来 100只股票组成,信息技术、 原材料行业的占比合计超65%, 2. 4% 54. 1倍 74 其中信息技术占比较高 价值ETF易方达 核心风格因子指数基本情况跟踪 (2026年1月5日) 跟踪国证价值100指数 | 该指数A股价值风格突出的100 | | 截至午间收盘 | 该指数 | 该指数 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 只股票组成,可选消费、金融、 | | 该指数涨跌 | 滚动市盈率 | 发布以来 | | 工业行业的占比合计超65%, | 其中可选消费占比较高 | 0. 3% | 9.5倍 | | 自由现金流ETF易方达 The First 跟踪国证自由现金流指数 | ...

远川投资评论 . 看更好的资管内容 2025 年的 A 股市场，在 DeepSeek 的技术突围中开局，又在摩尔线程和沐曦科技的翻倍狂潮里走向尾声。尽管关于 "AI 泡沫 " 的争议从下半年开始此起彼 伏，但谁都无法否认： 科技始终是市场最滚烫的主线。 以下文章来源于远川投资评论 ，作者周曼 不拥抱科技就等于错过了一个时代的焦虑背后，有个巨大的视角错位 —— 只看成长倍数不看回撤幅度，在大多数时候是一种非常一级的叙事，但在今天的科 技浪潮里，已经逐渐蔓延到二级市场的投资中。 霍华德 · 马克斯在 2025 年 12 月最新的备忘录《 AI 泡沫？》中，展示了这种 "VC 式回报 " 的诱惑：一个 AI 初创公司，即便只有 千分之一 的概率成长为一 个万亿美元市值的公司，在它刚成立的时候就去投资它，预期回报就能超过投资金额的八倍。 但是，相比蒙着眼睛十年之后才开始算回报率的一级基金，二级市场每个交易日都有直接的净值波动，优胜劣汰的速度、逆人性的程度都极其残酷。倾其所 有押注 VC 式回报的投资，常常会变成净值曲线上一个巨大的过山车轨道。 因此，比起一级投资者们乐观地相信 " 三年之内无泡沫 " ，对于大多数二级 ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 因此，比起一级投资者们乐观地相信"三年之内无泡沫"，对于大多数二级市场的参与者而言，马克斯这 期备忘录的尾声更为切中肯綮： "没有人能断言这是否为泡沫，因此我建议任何人都不应孤注一掷，必须认识到若事态恶化，将面临破 产风险。但同样地，也不应完全置身事外，以免错失这一史上重大技术进步所带来的机遇。适度的仓 位，辅以甄选和谨慎，似乎是最佳之道。" 实际上，他笔下的"适度仓位"与"谨慎甄选"，翻译成聪明钱的战术配置，就是四个字——杠铃策略。 杠杆的两头 杠铃策略在今天的资管行业并不是一个陌生的词汇。 2025 年的A 股市场，在 DeepSeek 的技术突围中开局，又在摩尔线程和沐曦科技的翻倍狂潮里走向尾 声。尽管关于"AI 泡沫"的争议从下半年开始此起彼伏，但谁都无法否认：科技始终是市场最滚烫的主 线。 不拥抱科技就等于错过了一个时代的焦虑背后，有个巨大的视角错位——只看成长倍数不看回撤幅度， 在大多数时候是一种非常一级的叙事，但在今天的科技浪潮里，已经逐渐蔓延到二级市场的投资中。 霍华德·马克斯在 2025 年 12 月最新的备忘录《 A ...

但是，相比蒙着眼睛十年之后才开始算回报率的一级基金，二级市场每个交易日都有直接的净值波动，优胜劣汰的速度、逆人性的程度都极其残酷。倾其所 有押注 VC 式回报的投资，常常会变成净值曲线上一个巨大的过山车轨道。 因此，比起一级投资者们乐观地相信 " 三年之内无泡沫 " ，对于大多数二级市场的参与者而言，马克斯这期备忘录的尾声更为切中肯綮： " 没有人能断言这是否为泡沫，因此我建议任何人都 不应孤注一掷 ，必须认识到若事态恶化，将面临破产风险。但同样地，也 不应完全置身事外 ，以免错 失这一史上重大技术进步所带来的机遇。适度的仓位，辅以甄选和谨慎，似乎是最佳之道。 " 实际上，他笔下的 " 适度仓位 " 与 " 谨慎甄选 " ，翻译成聪明钱的战术配置，就是四个字 —— 杠铃策略 。 杠杆的两头 杠铃策略在今天的资管行业并不是一个陌生的词汇。 2020 年以后，全球市场经历了一连串由黑天鹅引发的剧烈震荡。在这些不确定性的冲击下，市场主流的投资信仰也发生着微妙的偏移： 从巴菲特式的 " 价 值坚守 " ，悄然转向了塔勒布式的 " 反脆弱 " 。 2025 年的 A 股市场，在 DeepSeek 的技术突围中开局，又在 ...

市场今日午后全线走强，科技方向强势领涨。指数层面，国证成长100指数上涨5.1%，国证自由现金流指数上涨1.2%，国证价值100指数上涨0.8%。相关产 品交投活跃，成长ETF（159259）全天成交额约1.3亿元，较前几日大幅放量。 国证成长100指数聚焦A股成长风格突出的股票，紧扣经济转型脉搏，当前指数超七成权重集中于电子、通信、计算机板块，精准卡位AI算力核心环节，结 构锐度突出。成长ETF（159259）是市场唯一跟踪该指数的产品，可助力投资者把握成长风格投资机遇。 | 成长ETF | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 跟踪国证成长100指数 | | | | | 该指数由A股成长风格突出的 | ▽日 | 该指数 | 该指数E | | 100只股票组成,信息技术、 | 该指数涨跌 | 滚动市盈率 | 发布以来 | | 原材料行业的占比合计超65%, 其中信息技术占比较高 | 5.1% | 50.1倍 | 68 | | 价值ETF | | | | | 跟踪国证价值100指数 | | | | | 该指数A股价值风格突出的100 | ▽日 | 该指数 | 该指数 | | 只股 ...

今日早盘，"红利+"指数窄幅震荡。截至午间收盘，国证自由现金流指数上涨0.4%，国证价值100指数上涨0.3%，中证红利指数下跌0.03%，相关产品获资金 加仓，价值ETF（159263）半日净申购近1000万份。 国证价值100指数采用"高分红+高自由现金流+低市盈率"三维筛选体系，优选价值标的，历史表现稳健。价值ETF（159263）跟踪该指数，可助力投资者把 握价值风格投资机遇。 自由现金流ETF易方达 低费率 跟踪国证自由现金流指数 该指数由A股自由现金流水平较高 的100只股票组成,工业、原材料、 可选消费的占比合计超70%,兼具 高股息与成长性 指数历史表现 | 指数名称 | | | | 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 中证红利指数 | -7% | 58% | 30% | -4% | 21% | -16% | 21 | | 国证价值100指数 | 2% | 64% | 16% | 6% | 46% | -16% | 30 | | 国证自由现金流指 ...

科技方向今日回调，CPO、光芯片、光通信等热门概念集体跌逾3%。指数层面，国证价值100指数下跌0.9%，国证自由现金流指数下跌1.2%，国证成长100 指数下跌2.1%。资金逆势加仓，成长ETF（159259）全天获3000万份净申购。 | 成长ETF | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 跟踪国证成长100指数 | | | | | 该指数由A股成长风格突出的 | マ日 | 该指数 | 该指数自 | | 100只股票组成,信息技术、 | 该指数涨跌 | 滚动市盈率 | 发布以来 | | 原材料行业的占比合计超65%, 其中信息技术占比较高 | -2. 1% | 51.0倍 | 70. | | 价值ETF | | | | | 跟踪国证价值100指数 | | | | | 该指数A股价值风格突出的100 | マ日 | 该指数 | 该指数 | | 只股票组成,可选消费、金融、 | 该指数涨跌 | 滚动市盈率 | 发布以来 | | 工业行业的占比合计超65%, 其中可选消费占比较高 | -0. 9% | 9.2倍 | | | 11 2 : 3 自由现金流ETF易方达 | | | | ...

Group 1 - The A-share market has shown a steady upward trend since the "924" policy, with the Shanghai Composite Index recently surpassing the 4000-point mark, reaching a ten-year high [5] - The A500 ETF managed by E Fund has outperformed major indices, with the CSI A500 index rising over 32% since its low in April [5] - The market is expected to continue its upward trajectory, with potential new opportunities emerging [5] Group 2 - The "924" policy, which included wide credit measures for small and medium enterprises, has broken the negative spiral in market expectations, initiating the current rally [6] - Historical trends indicate that each cycle of wide credit and monetary policy is typically accompanied by sustained stock market growth, with the current fiscal policies increasing the likelihood of economic recovery [6] - The implementation of anti-involution policies is expected to shift the economy from a deflationary to an inflationary cycle, which is crucial for the A-share market's narrative in the latter half of the year [6] Group 3 - The market is currently in the "economic verification" phase, with previous high-performing sectors facing adjustments, and a potential shift towards undervalued assets with expected performance improvements [9] - The financing balance in the A-share market has increased significantly, from 1.8 trillion yuan to nearly 2.5 trillion yuan since June, indicating strong inflows of leveraged funds [7][9] - Despite the Shanghai Composite Index being at a ten-year high, overall valuation levels remain moderate, with the price-to-earnings ratios of major indices at their historical median [10] Group 4 - The A-share market is entering a new phase characterized by resource stocks, particularly copper and aluminum, as key drivers of the current market trend [17] - Copper prices have reached historical highs, leading to a significant rally in global copper mining stocks, with major Chinese companies like Zijin Mining and Jiangxi Copper seeing substantial gains [18] - The aluminum sector is expected to experience a supply-demand imbalance starting in 2026, which could lead to rising aluminum prices and stable returns for aluminum companies [19] Group 5 - Oil and chemical sectors are also gaining attention, with leading companies in these industries beginning to recover in valuation despite ongoing challenges in the commodities market [19] - China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) is positioned to benefit significantly due to its low production costs and focus on offshore exploration, making it one of the most profitable among the state-owned oil companies [20] - The overall dividend yield for major oil companies in China is competitive, with CNOOC, China Petroleum, and Sinopec offering attractive returns to investors [20]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that 2025 will be a pivotal year for the A-share ETF market, particularly focusing on "free cash flow" ETFs, which are expected to gain significant traction and popularity among investors [3][4]. Group 1: Free Cash Flow ETFs - The launch of the E Fund's free cash flow ETF (code: 159222) on March 24, 2025, marks the beginning of a new investment trend, with management fees set at a competitive 0.15% plus 0.05% for custody [3]. - Historical performance of free cash flow ETFs shows a remarkable annualized return of over 20% from 2022 to 2024, significantly outperforming the broader market, which had returns of less than 8% [7]. - The National Index of Free Cash Flow (code: 980092) has unique compilation rules that exclude financial and real estate sectors, focusing on companies with sustainable operational capabilities [9]. Group 2: Index Compilation Rules - The index requires companies to have positive operating cash flow for the past three years, ensuring financial sustainability and avoiding companies with inflated profits [11]. - A stability assessment is conducted based on the past 12 quarters of ROE, eliminating the most volatile 10% of companies to enhance long-term stability [11]. - The final index is composed of the top 100 companies ranked by free cash flow rate, combining both quantity and quality of cash flow [11]. Group 3: Market Context and Comparisons - The article draws parallels between the A-share market and the U.S. market, noting that free cash flow is a relatively new concept in both, with the first cash flow ETF in the U.S. launched in 2016 [15]. - The free cash flow factor is positioned as a valuable selection criterion, supported by academic research indicating its ability to generate excess returns, especially during market downturns [18]. - The industry distribution of the National Index of Free Cash Flow shows significant overweights in sectors like automotive, non-ferrous metals, and household appliances compared to other indices [20][22]. Group 4: Investment Strategy and Outlook - The article suggests that while the National Index of Free Cash Flow may perform well in the long term, it could underperform the overall A-share market in the short term, requiring a mindset geared towards gradual wealth accumulation [27][31]. - The index is viewed as a stabilizing component in a diversified investment portfolio, akin to high-dividend indices, providing lower volatility and superior long-term returns [31].