来源：EBoversea ◆维持"买入"评级，目标价3.85港元 ◆上半年原材料价格走势令毛利率仍处于低位 公司1H18营业收入同比增长16.9%至33.3亿元人民币。而期内主要原材料马口铁（采购均价同比上升8.6%）与塑胶粒 子价格震荡上升，铝材价格较同期依然维持高位，令整体毛利率处在15.0%低位，同比下降了2个百分点。期内公司费 用控制卓有成效，销售及管理费用率均有下降。本期归母净利润同比下降14.8%至1.43亿元人民币，中期每股EPS为 0.12元人民币，中期股息每股6.8港仙。 ◆核心产品品类均取得稳健增长 马口铁包装/铝制包装/塑胶包装期内收入同比增速分别达13.1%、23.2%、14.6%，其中马口铁包装销售收入占比达 53.7%，期内1）钢桶业务同比增长27.1%，主要受益于与核心客户的供销联动及新产能（广州、嘉兴）释放；2）三片 罐、方圆罐业务通过加强跟进核心客户需求，期内收入同比增长29.3%/27.0%。铝制包装1）两片罐上半年浙江纪鸿产 能释放，而整体产能利用率较2017年提升1.3个百分点；2）单片罐方面成功进入青岛啤酒和嘉士伯供应体系，期内销 量同比增长34.1%。而塑胶包装方面 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong revenue and profit growth in the first half of 2025, primarily driven by the consolidation of COFCO Packaging, which solidified its leading position in the metal packaging sector and expanded its business scope into industrial and plastic packaging [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In 1H25, the company achieved revenue of 11.727 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 62.7%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 903 million yuan, up 64.7% year-on-year [1]. - The second quarter alone saw revenue of 6.152 billion yuan, reflecting a 68.3% year-on-year growth, while net profit for the quarter was 239 million yuan, down 11.4% year-on-year [1]. - The company recognized non-recurring gains of 502 million yuan in 1H25, with 463 million yuan attributed to the acquisition of COFCO Packaging [1]. Group 2: Business Expansion - The metal packaging segment generated revenue of 10.942 billion yuan in 1H25, a 72.0% increase year-on-year, accounting for 93.3% of total revenue [2]. - The acquisition of COFCO Packaging allowed the company to enter the industrial steel drum and plastic packaging markets, expanding its reach beyond food and beverage packaging [2]. Group 3: International Strategy - The company reported a significant increase in overseas revenue, reaching 1.14 billion yuan in 1H25, a 92.1% year-on-year growth [3]. - Investments of 442 million yuan and 647 million yuan are planned for new production lines in Thailand and Kazakhstan, respectively, aimed at enhancing the company's international presence in the two-piece can market [3]. Group 4: Profitability and Margins - The overall gross margin for 1H25 was 14.1%, down 3.7 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to raw material price fluctuations and the impact of COFCO Packaging's consolidation [4]. - The company achieved an investment income of 514 million yuan in 1H25, a 402% increase year-on-year, largely from the acquisition of COFCO Packaging [4]. Group 5: Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been revised upward, with expected net profits of 1.317 billion yuan, 1.281 billion yuan, and 1.413 billion yuan, respectively [5]. - The target price for the company's stock is set at 7.65 yuan, based on a 15 times price-to-earnings ratio for 2025, reflecting the company's strengthened market position and growth prospects [5].

Core Insights - In April, China's M&A market saw a total of 160 transactions, a month-on-month decrease of 13.0% and a year-on-year decrease of 38.2% [1] - The total disclosed transaction amount reached approximately 561.74 billion RMB, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 23.2% but a year-on-year increase of 23.6% [1] Transaction Types - Domestic M&A transactions accounted for 92.5% of the total, with 148 transactions, while cross-border M&A transactions totaled 12 [1] - Among the disclosed transactions, 79 were domestic with a total amount of 529.69 billion RMB, and 8 cross-border transactions amounted to 32.05 billion RMB [1] Regional Distribution - The majority of transactions were concentrated in major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou, with Beijing leading at 20 transactions (12.5% of total) and Shanghai following with 13 transactions [1] - Qinghai province had a notable performance with transaction amounts reaching 137.29 billion RMB, accounting for 24.4% of the total [1] Industry Distribution - The M&A transactions involved 23 primary industries, with the financial and machinery manufacturing sectors leading at 21 transactions each (13.1% of total) [2] - The chemical raw materials and processing industry topped in transaction value at 149.99 billion RMB, representing 26.7% of the total [2] Notable Transactions - Zijin Mining's acquisition of a 24.98% stake in Zangge Mining for 137.29 billion RMB aims to leverage Zangge's expertise in salt lake development and lithium extraction [2] - Aorui Jin's acquisition of 75.56% of COFCO Packaging for approximately 56.30 billion RMB will enhance its product line in domestic packaging [2] VC/PE Activity - There were 34 M&A exit events in April, totaling 1.209 billion RMB, indicating increased activity in VC/PE exits [3] - Notable exits included Huahai Qingke's acquisition of a 6.67% stake in Chipwave Semiconductor, yielding a return multiple of 4.08 times [3] Market Outlook - Despite a decline in transaction numbers, the M&A market shows resilience with a growth in transaction value, indicating structural vitality [3] - The increase in VC/PE exit activity is expected to inject new vitality into the capital market, supporting industry development [3]

Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a net profit of 14.39 million CNY, a decrease of 16.19% year-on-year [2] - For the fiscal year 2024, the net profit attributable to shareholders was 63.87 million CNY, an increase of 27.40% year-on-year [2] - The operating revenue for 2024 was 1.15 billion CNY, a decrease of 18.72% year-on-year [5] - The net cash flow from operating activities decreased by 40.80% year-on-year [2] Group 2: Business Operations and Strategy - The company focuses on e-commerce packaging solutions, including electronic labels, plastic packaging, and cushioning packaging [3][4] - The company is expanding its market share and enhancing profitability through cost control and management improvements [2][5] - The company has established partnerships with notable clients such as Yunda Express, China Post, JD.com, and FedEx [5] Group 3: Investment and Future Plans - The company is investing in a production base in Cambodia, with plans for it to commence operations in the first half of 2025 [1] - The company is committed to green packaging development, with R&D expenses reaching 51.95 million CNY in 2024 [6] - The company is exploring potential mergers and acquisitions based on market conditions and its development needs [7] Group 4: Market Environment and Challenges - The company's foreign sales accounted for 17.29% of total revenue, with limited impact from the US-China trade war [7] - The company is adapting to industry competition and potential price wars by focusing on core business areas [1][2] - The company is actively monitoring international trade policies to mitigate risks associated with market fluctuations [7]

Core Viewpoint - The cross-border e-commerce sector is gaining attention due to fluctuating international tariffs and inflation pressures, with recent government approvals for comprehensive pilot zones in various cities boosting the market [3][4]. Investment Opportunities - The cross-border e-commerce industry is experiencing volatility due to U.S. tariff policies, prompting institutional investors to focus on overseas warehouse operations, which offer logistical and tax advantages [5]. - Companies like Lege Co., Ltd. are increasingly investing in overseas warehouse operations, with projected revenue from this segment reaching 2.423 billion yuan in 2024, accounting for 42.73% of total revenue [5]. - China National Freight Forwarding has established approximately 400,000 square meters of self-owned warehouses in Southeast Asia and the Middle East, enhancing its global logistics services [5]. - The global B2C e-commerce market is expected to see significant growth in categories such as furniture, clothing, and consumer electronics, driven by rising disposable incomes and online shopping convenience [6]. Stock Movements - The cross-border e-commerce sector includes 139 constituent stocks, with notable volatility observed in companies like Tianyuan Co., Ltd., which experienced a six-day price surge followed by a three-day decline [7]. - Tianyuan Co., Ltd. reported foreign sales of 199 million yuan in 2024, representing 17.29% of total revenue, focusing on enhancing its international marketing through social media [7]. - Xunxing Co., Ltd. achieved a 60.19% year-on-year increase in online sales through third-party platforms, contributing 96.81% to its total e-commerce revenue [8]. - Ningbo United's revenue remained stable at 1.787 billion yuan in 2024, but its net profit decreased by 23.56%, indicating challenges in its business segments [9]. - Dongbei Group reported a 5.74% increase in total revenue to 6.243 billion yuan in 2024, with foreign sales accounting for 29.98% of its main business revenue [10]. - Sanmu Group's revenue fell by 24.66% to 10.481 billion yuan in 2024, with a net loss of 531 million yuan, reflecting a significant decline in performance [10].