工程机械：11 月挖机数据超预期，怎么看 2026 年行业机 会？20251208 摘要 2023 年底国内挖掘机销量超预期，实际增速近 20%，主要因年底赶工、 资金到位率提高及个别厂家压库存。海外市场需求同样强劲，实际增速 接近 20%，但缺乏提前预测数据。 开工数据 10 月好转，降幅收窄，与资金到位率提高相符。恒立液压中 大挖油缸和泵阀连续数月同比增长 30%-40%，反映其份额提升及出口 大挖需求强劲。 预计 2026 年国内挖掘机销量将保持增长，小型挖掘机或增长 15%- 20%，中大型挖掘机增速稍逊，但整体仍能实现 10%以上增长，主要 受益于中央特别国债对水利工程等项目的支持。 2026 年海外市场预计受益于美国降息周期，欧美市场虽进入较慢，但 非洲、南美、印尼、中东及中亚等地区矿产资源丰富，中国品牌市占率 提升顺畅，美元走弱将推动矿业设备需求回升。 非挖掘机械产品如起重设备受风电项目拉动，但随车起重机、塔吊及混 凝土机械因电动化技术革新将继续向好，非挖类机械未来两三年仍将保 持良好增长态势。 Q&A 2025 年 10 月份国内外挖掘机销量数据表现如何？ 2025 年 10 月份，国内挖掘机 ...

工程机械 2026 年度策略：国内外共振向上，重点关注海 外行业景气度复苏 20251202 摘要 2025 年前三季度工程机械板块收入增速超 10%，显著高于 2023 和 2024 年，主要得益于三季度国内 FY 收入端明显反转并实现正增长，利 润方面，净利率提高约一个百分点，经营杠杆提升盈利能力。 三一重工、徐工股价至 2025 年 10 月底涨幅接近 40%，三一重工受益 于国内业务毛利率提升，徐工受益于股权激励及矿山业务估值提升，中 联重科与柳工表现与自身利润增速匹配。 2026 年小型挖掘机销量预计保持 20%以上增速，受益于中央特别国债 资金支持的小型水利项目需求，中大型设备销量依赖地产复苏及西部大 基建等项目进度，总体预计明年挖掘机总销量增速约为 10-15%。 国债发行情况及地方政府专项债使用方向影响工程机械市场，新增万亿 特别国债支撑小型设备需求，但专项债多用于偿还旧账，限制中大型设 备需求，地产复苏与大基建项目进度对中大型设备有拉动效应。 预计 2026 年国内挖掘机市场与 2025 年相当或有所提升，长期来看， 机器替代人工趋势明显，中国挖掘机销量有望达到 40 万至 50 万台。 Q ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The excavator market in July exceeded expectations for both domestic and international sales, with a strong upward cycle observed in both markets [1] - The domestic excavator market is experiencing structural optimization, with an increased demand for medium and large excavators, leading to enhanced profit elasticity [1][2] - The overall engineering machinery sector is characterized by a robust profit pool, presenting high investment value [2] Key Insights - **Domestic Market Dynamics**: - The demand for small excavators is supported by central government funding for water conservancy projects and high-standard farmland construction, with a significant increase in fixed asset investment in the water management sector [1][7] - Medium and large excavators are affected by the slow issuance of local government special bonds, leading to a cautious outlook for the next 3-5 years [1][8] - The relationship between excavator sales and stock prices is significant, with stock prices influenced by sales trends despite the limited impact of sales on overall profits [3] - **Sales and Inventory Trends**: - There is a notable divergence between sales and operating hours, primarily due to the increased share of small excavators and low operating rates for medium and large excavators [4] - Dealer inventory levels have been low, around 1.5 to 2 months, leading to a replenishment phenomenon in July, which supported sales [6] - **Future Demand Projections**: - The demand for small excavators is expected to remain strong as long as government policies are clear and funding is in place [7] - The medium and large excavator market may rely heavily on policy guidance and support in the coming years [8] Export Performance - Excavator exports are projected to grow by 10%-15% for the year, with strong performance noted in Africa, Indonesia, and the Middle East [1][10] - The total export value for excavators is expected to reach approximately 7-8 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 60% [11] - The demand structure in key regions has improved, with medium and large excavators making up a significant portion of exports [11] Non-Excavator Segment - The non-excavator segment has shown good profit release, with improvements in export structure and a narrowing decline in certain product categories [9] - The overall trend for cranes and other lifting equipment remains positive, with a significant market share held by Chinese brands [13] Investment Recommendations - The focus for stock selection this year is on leading companies such as SANY and XCMG, which are expected to have greater profit elasticity in an upward cycle [15] - Other recommended companies include Liugong, Zoomlion, and Shantui, which are seen as having potential for growth but may not match the profit realization of the leading firms [15]

Core Insights - The relationship between China and Central Asian countries has seen significant growth and vitality, with increased trade and cultural exchanges being highlighted as key developments [8]. Group 1: China-Kazakhstan Relations - The introduction of a visa exemption agreement in 2023 has led to the establishment of multiple direct flight routes between China and Kazakhstan, facilitating easier business travel [10]. - Chinese products are increasingly popular in Kazakhstan, with local consumers showing a preference for Chinese goods, leading to a rise in cross-border shopping activities [10]. - The upcoming second China-Central Asia Summit is expected to further enhance practical cooperation between China and Kazakhstan [10]. Group 2: China-Tajikistan Relations - There has been a notable increase in Chinese enterprises investing in Tajikistan, particularly in international trade and construction sectors [12]. - A shift from "sitting merchants" to "traveling merchants" is observed, with Chinese companies now conducting market research and adapting their offerings to local needs [12]. - Cultural exchanges, such as the establishment of a Chinese library in Tajikistan, are seen as vital for enhancing mutual understanding and cooperation [13]. Group 3: China-Uzbekistan Relations - The "Two Zones and One Park" industrial technology zone project is underway, aimed at attracting Chinese investments in green energy and high-end manufacturing [14]. - The growing presence of Chinese nationals in Uzbekistan reflects the strengthening ties between the two countries, with local governments eager to collaborate with Chinese businesses [15]. - Plans for establishing vocational training schools and promoting traditional Chinese medicine in Uzbekistan indicate a commitment to long-term bilateral cooperation [16].

Group 1 - In April 2025, total sales of excavators reached 22,142 units, representing a year-on-year growth of 17.6%. Domestic sales accounted for 12,547 units, up 16.4%, while exports totaled 9,595 units, increasing by 19.3% [1][2] - From January to April 2025, a total of 83,514 excavators were sold, marking a year-on-year increase of 21.4%. Domestic sales during this period were 49,109 units, up 31.9%, and exports were 34,405 units, growing by 9.02% [2] - The domestic sales accounted for 57% of total sales in April 2025, while exports made up 43%. For the first four months of 2025, domestic sales represented 59% of total sales, with exports at 41% [2] Group 2 - The average working hours for major construction machinery in April 2025 increased by 3.20% year-on-year, with excavators averaging 85 hours of operation [3] - The overall operating rate for major construction machinery in April 2025 was 62%, showing a year-on-year decline of 4.29 percentage points, although it increased by 1.17 percentage points compared to the previous month [3] - The utilization rate of tower cranes from Pangyuan Leasing improved significantly, reaching 49.7% in March 2025, which is a year-on-year increase of 3.5% and a month-on-month increase of 20.5% [3] Group 3 - The risk exposure of most Chinese construction machinery manufacturers to the U.S. market is relatively low, with companies like XCMG and Zoomlion having less than 1% and around 1% of their total revenue from the U.S., respectively [4] - Recommended stocks include SANY Heavy Industry, Zoomlion, XCMG, and Hengli Hydraulic, with LiuGong identified as a beneficiary [5]