MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ 步入12月，市场进入政策、流动性、基本面向上共振的窗口期。前期市场调整有效释放了部分估值与情 绪风险，海外美联储仍有降息概率，国内中央经济工作会议定调将成为引导预期的核心锚点。 展望2026年，A股市场将如何表现？哪些投资方向值得关注？我们一起来看长城基金副总经理、投资总 监杨建华的观点。 杨建华表示，12月需要密切关注即将召开的政治局会议和中央经济工作会议对明年宏观经济的定调。他 认为外围环境会相对平和，A股市场调整后风险得到一定释放，走势有望趋于平稳，并存在一定的反弹 动力。 关于2026年的投资布局，杨建华表示，当前他关注的方向主要包括：AI叙事的新演绎（尤其是AI应用 的落地）、美国进入降息周期的海外需求板块、美元走向新一轮宽松的资源股，以及国内增量资金更加 偏好的红利股。此外，他也将积极关注国内持续拉动内需带来的顺周期板块见底的投资机会。 MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ 责任编辑：杨赐 步入12月，市场进入政策、流动性、基本面向上共振的窗口期。前期市场调整有效释放了部分估值与情 绪风险，海外美联储仍有降息概率，国内中央经济工作会议定调将成为引导预期的核 ...

工程机械：11 月挖机数据超预期，怎么看 2026 年行业机 会？20251208 摘要 2023 年底国内挖掘机销量超预期，实际增速近 20%，主要因年底赶工、 资金到位率提高及个别厂家压库存。海外市场需求同样强劲，实际增速 接近 20%，但缺乏提前预测数据。 开工数据 10 月好转，降幅收窄，与资金到位率提高相符。恒立液压中 大挖油缸和泵阀连续数月同比增长 30%-40%，反映其份额提升及出口 大挖需求强劲。 预计 2026 年国内挖掘机销量将保持增长，小型挖掘机或增长 15%- 20%，中大型挖掘机增速稍逊，但整体仍能实现 10%以上增长，主要 受益于中央特别国债对水利工程等项目的支持。 2026 年海外市场预计受益于美国降息周期，欧美市场虽进入较慢，但 非洲、南美、印尼、中东及中亚等地区矿产资源丰富，中国品牌市占率 提升顺畅，美元走弱将推动矿业设备需求回升。 非挖掘机械产品如起重设备受风电项目拉动，但随车起重机、塔吊及混 凝土机械因电动化技术革新将继续向好，非挖类机械未来两三年仍将保 持良好增长态势。 Q&A 2025 年 10 月份国内外挖掘机销量数据表现如何？ 2025 年 10 月份，国内挖掘机 ...

人民财讯12月8日电，长城基金副总经理、投资总监杨建华表示，年末A股存在反弹动力，外围环境预 计相对平和，A股市场调整后风险已得到一定释放，走势有望趋于平稳，目前应该着眼2026年投资机会 的布局，当前关注的方向包括围绕AI等科技赛道新叙事的机会、美国进入降息周期的海外需求板块、 以及新一轮宽松下的资源股，此外，也应关注国内持续拉动内需带来的顺周期板块见底的投资机会。 ...

Group 1 - The Shanghai Gold ETF (159830) has seen a trading volume exceeding 53 million, with a turnover rate of over 2.4%, indicating strong investor interest [1] - The Shanghai Gold ETF has accumulated a net inflow of 619 million yuan over the past 20 trading days, with a net inflow rate of 37.65%, leading among similar products [1] - The China Securities A500 ETF Tianhong (159360) recorded a trading volume of over 40 million, with notable gains in constituent stocks such as Aerospace Development and Spring Breeze Power [1] Group 2 - The international silver spot price surpassed 54 USD/ounce, approaching the historical high of 54.468 USD/ounce set in mid-October [2] - The recent high prices of gold and silver have led to a shift in consumer preferences towards lightweight gold products and gold bars [2] - The long-term trend of de-dollarization is enhancing gold's status as a monetary metal, supported by ongoing central bank purchases of gold [2]

Core Viewpoint - Everbright Securities maintains an "overweight" rating for the steel and non-ferrous metals industries, with a ranking of industry prosperity as follows: copper and aluminum > gold > steel [1][2]. Supply - Supply growth for steel, copper, and aluminum remains constrained. For steel, energy consumption and carbon emissions will continue to restrict supply, with crude steel output facing pressure. Future policies similar to the 2017 supply-side reform need to be monitored [3]. - For copper, Freeport and Teck Resources have lowered their 2026 production guidance, leading to increased disruptions at the mining level, with a projected 0.1% year-on-year decline in global refined copper output for 2026 [3]. - Aluminum production in China is expected to grow by 1.6% in 2026 due to capacity constraints [3]. Demand - Demand recovery will contribute to price elasticity for steel, copper, and aluminum. The real estate market is still expected to stabilize, but the World Steel Association forecasts a 1% year-on-year decline in steel demand in China for 2026 [4]. - For copper, the demand from the new energy sector is anticipated to be the main growth driver, with a projected 1.5% increase in global copper demand for 2026 [4]. - Aluminum demand in China is expected to grow by 1.8% in 2026, driven by manufacturing sectors such as new energy vehicles and electricity, which offset declines in real estate [4]. Gold - The demand for gold is expected to rise due to ETF investments and central bank purchases. The U.S. entering a rate-cutting cycle, combined with increased global uncertainty, is likely to boost gold ETF investment demand [5]. Recommended Stocks - For steel, companies such as Baosteel and Jiuli Special Materials are recommended, with a focus on Erdos, CITIC Special Steel, and Hualing Steel [6]. - In the copper sector, Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum are recommended, with attention to Tongling Nonferrous Metals, Western Mining, and Jincheng Mining [6]. - For aluminum, China Hongqiao is recommended, with a focus on Yun Aluminum, Shenhuo, and Zhongfu Industrial [6]. - In the gold sector, Zijin Mining is recommended, with attention to Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining and Zijin Gold International [6].

Core Viewpoint - WuXi AppTec (02268) has seen a strong stock performance, with a recent increase of 4.89% to HKD 70.8, driven by positive market sentiment and favorable analyst reports [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The MSCI China Healthcare Index has risen 59.5% year-to-date, outperforming the MSCI China Index by 24% [1] - The pharmaceutical sector has experienced a correction, declining approximately 10% since early October [1] Group 2: Analyst Insights - CMB International's latest report highlights the attractiveness of undervalued pharmaceutical companies, including WuXi AppTec, amid a recovering capital market and increasing demand for innovative drug development in China [1] - Goldman Sachs reports that WuXi AppTec's order momentum remains strong, particularly from U.S. clients, with a target of 45% year-on-year revenue growth on track [1] Group 3: Future Prospects - The company is actively negotiating contracts for its Singapore facility, expecting to sign several agreements by year-end, although revenue contributions from this facility will be limited until 2027 due to capacity expansion timelines [1] - The clinical development of authorized innovative drug pipelines overseas is anticipated to be a significant catalyst for the innovative drug sector [1]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Company Overview - **Company**: 匠心家居 (Motomotion) - **Industry**: Furniture and Home Furnishings - **Focus**: Smart electric sofas, primarily targeting the U.S. market - **Rating**: Initiated coverage with a "Buy" rating and a target price of Rmb 110.00 Key Points and Arguments Market Outlook - **U.S. Furniture Demand**: Expected to recover from a weak performance in 2022-2024, with projected growth rates of 5% in 2025, 8% in 2026, and 10% in 2027 due to factors such as declining interest rates and stable replacement demand [2][11][27] - **Company Growth**: Anticipated revenue growth of 31% in 2023, 33% in 2024, and 39% in H125, significantly outperforming the industry [2][45] Financial Projections - **Revenue and Profitability**: Projected revenue from Rmb 1,463 million in 2022 to Rmb 6,037 million by 2029, with a net profit increase from Rmb 334 million to Rmb 1,461 million over the same period [5] - **CAGR Estimates**: Expected revenue and net profit CAGRs of 23% and 18% from 2024 to 2027, respectively [1][2] Competitive Positioning - **Market Share Growth**: Current market share in the U.S. electric sofa market is 5.6%, expected to rise to 9.5% by 2027 [2][42] - **Product Innovation**: Focus on high-end market with innovative features such as wireless charging and immersive audio, leading to higher average selling prices (ASP) [51][50] Tariff Impact - **Tariff Strategy**: Company has shifted production to Vietnam, covering over 90% of U.S. sales, mitigating the impact of tariffs [3][4] - **Profit Margin Control**: Anticipated manageable impact on profit margins due to cost-sharing with upstream and downstream partners [3][28] Valuation - **Current Valuation**: Company is currently valued at 22x 2026E PE and 0.9x 2026E PEG, indicating potential for upward adjustment [4][9] - **Target Price**: Rmb 110.00 target price implies a 27x 2026E PE and 1.1x 2026E PEG, suggesting a 22% upside [4][7] Risks and Opportunities - **Market Risks**: Potential negative impact from rising retail prices due to tariffs and consumer sentiment [28][36] - **Opportunities**: Exit of smaller Chinese exporters from the U.S. market could provide market share opportunities for established players like 匠心家居 [3][42] Additional Insights - **Channel Inventory**: Current channel inventory levels are healthy, with a slight increase in inventory-to-sales ratios since Q225, indicating stable demand [34][37] - **Consumer Sentiment**: Despite concerns over consumer sentiment due to tariffs, the overall demand driven by housing transactions is expected to rebound [11][28] Conclusion - **Investment Thesis**: 匠心家居 is positioned as a strong player in the U.S. furniture market, with innovative products and a strategic focus on high-end segments. The anticipated recovery in the housing market and effective tariff management further bolster its growth prospects, justifying the "Buy" rating and target price.

Company Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 254.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.3% [4] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 37.86 billion yuan, up 55.5% year-on-year, with a net profit of 14.57 billion yuan in Q3 2025, reflecting a 57% increase year-on-year and an 11% increase quarter-on-quarter [4] - The non-recurring net profit for the first three quarters was 34.13 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 43.7% [4] Production Volume - In Q3 2025, gold production increased by 7% quarter-on-quarter, while copper production decreased by 6% [5] - For the first three quarters, gold production totaled 65 tons, a 20% increase year-on-year, with Q3 production at 24 tons [5] - Copper production for the first three quarters was 830,000 tons, a 5% year-on-year increase, with Q3 production at 260,000 tons, impacted by flooding at the Kamoa-Kakula copper mine [5] Price Trends - In Q3 2025, the average spot price of gold was $3,492 per ounce, a 40% year-on-year increase, while the average copper price was $9,864 per ton, a 6% year-on-year increase [6] - Gold business gross profit accounted for 46% of the company's total gross profit in Q3 2025, up from 30% in 2024 [6] Cost Analysis - The sales cost of gold concentrate in Q3 2025 was 195 yuan per gram, an increase of 10 yuan per gram quarter-on-quarter [7] - The cost of copper concentrate was 22,128 yuan per ton, up 952 yuan per ton year-on-year, with electrolytic copper costing 36,544 yuan per ton, an increase of 1,261 yuan per ton year-on-year [7] - Cost increases were attributed to declining ore grades, increased transportation distances, and transitional costs from newly acquired companies [7] Industry Outlook - The weakening of the US dollar's credit and the onset of a US interest rate cut cycle are expected to support rising gold and copper prices [8] - For gold, central banks are likely to continue increasing their gold reserves amid global uncertainties, with ETFs also expected to increase their gold holdings [9] - For copper, while short-term pressures may exist, supply tightness is anticipated due to Freeport's planned production cuts, with downstream demand expected to recover in Q4 2025 [9]

Core Insights - The offshore bond market for Chinese entities showed stable issuance in the primary market and strong performance in the secondary market during the third quarter of 2025 [1][2] Primary Market Performance - In Q3 2025, the total issuance of offshore bonds reached $774 billion, with a net financing of $45.77 billion, a significant recovery from the previous quarter's -$314.82 billion [2] - Excluding real estate sector defaults, the actual new issuance was $639 billion from 502 bonds [2] - The issuance of local government bonds totaled 96 bonds amounting to $143 billion, while financial bonds accounted for 285 bonds totaling $165 billion [2] - The real estate sector saw a continued decline in new financing, with only 8 bonds issued for a total of approximately $10 billion [2] - The issuance included 106 offshore RMB bonds, 282 USD bonds, 87 HKD bonds, 22 EUR bonds, and 5 bonds in other currencies [2] Issuance Methods - The majority of bonds were directly issued, totaling 319, while 82 were guaranteed issues [3] - The trend indicates a diversification in the types of issuers entering the offshore bond market [3] Secondary Market Performance - By the end of Q3 2025, the Markit iBoxx Asian USD bond index for Chinese entities showed an increase, with the investment-grade index rising by 0.55% [4][6] - The real estate bond index increased by 0.56%, while the local government bond index rose by 0.50% [6] Debt Repayment Pressure - The overall repayment pressure for offshore bonds is expected to ease in Q4 2025, with total repayments decreasing by $130.53 billion compared to Q3 [7] - The repayment amounts for October, November, and December are projected at $91.81 billion, $117.72 billion, and $151.37 billion, respectively [7] Market Outlook - The restructuring of debts by several real estate companies has led to a decline in credit risk premiums, resulting in a narrowing of yield spreads for investment-grade and high-yield USD bonds [9] - The expansion of the "Southbound Trading" program is anticipated to enhance the market capacity and liquidity of Chinese offshore bonds [9]

Core Points - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut, causing global reactions as U.S. rate cuts typically influence global monetary policy [1][2] - The decision reflects more political pressure than economic necessity, as the U.S. economy shows signs of strain but is not in a dire state [2] - The rate cut is expected to benefit exports, trade, and the coastal economy, while also reducing costs for loans, although deposit rates will also decline [3][4] Policy Implications - The current interest rate cut aligns with previous expectations, indicating that market participants were already anticipating this move [4] - Historically, the Federal Reserve has undergone four rate-cutting cycles since 2000, each triggered by unique economic conditions [5][6] - The essence of these rate cuts is seen as a redistribution of global wealth [7] Real Estate Market Impact - The rate cut is expected to positively influence the stock market, gold prices, and exports, but the recovery of the real estate market should not be overly optimistic [8] - Key factors for real estate recovery include buyer stability, financial capability, and market expectations [8][9] - The current real estate market requires stable employment and income for potential buyers more than new policies [9] Investor Insights - A seasoned investor shared insights on property investments, emphasizing the importance of location and market conditions [10][11] - Properties in prime locations like Beijing and emerging districts in cities like Chengdu and Chongqing remain resilient despite market fluctuations [11][12] - The investor's strategy involves retaining properties in stable markets while considering selling those in underperforming areas [13]