2025Q3 行业持续改善，商业航天提速 [Table_Industry] ——信达军工 E 周刊第 201 期 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 11 月 2 日 证券研究报告 行业研究 [Table_ReportType] 行业周报 | [Table_StockAndRank] 国防军工 | | | --- | --- | | 投资评级 | 看好 | | 上次评级 | 看好 | [Table_Author] 张润毅 军工行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500520050003 邮 箱：zhangrunyi@cindasc.com 孙然 军工行业分析师 执业编号：S1500524080003 邮 箱：sunran@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦 B座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 2025Q3 行业持续改善，商业航天提速 ——信达军工 E 周刊第 201 期 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 11 月 2 日 本期内容提要: [Table_S [一周 ...

10月29日早盘，军工板块小幅震荡，截至11点12分，全市场"军工纯度"最高的航空航天 ETF（159227） 跌幅0.26%，成交额达1.21亿元，稳居同类第一。持仓股航宇科技、中国卫星、华秦科技、长城军工、 天奥电子、航天电子等涨幅居前。航空航天ETF近期持续获资金关注，近8个交易日合计净流入金额超 2.82亿元。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 航空航天 ETF（159227）最新规模超 16亿元，创历史新高，为全市场规模最大的航空航天类 ETF。 方正证券表示，根据测算，2028年GW星座将达成"百箭千星"计划，2035年将完成全年近2500颗卫星的 发射，对火箭发射的需求将大幅增加。随着星网及垣信的突破，组网密集期已经到来，火箭发射、卫星 制造及下游应用迎来加速拐点。我国商业航天正式进入复苏期开端，后势强劲，产业加速期已经到来。 航空航天ETF（159227）跟踪国证航天指数，深度布局航空航天产业链，申万一级军工行业占比高达 98.2%，是全市场军工含量最高的指数。区域冲突加剧推动国防开支刚性增长，同时商业航天（如火箭 发射、太空旅行）进入产业化阶段，打开万亿级市场空间。航空航天产业兼顾技术壁垒与盈利确 ...

科技日报 记者10月27日从北京天兵科技有限公司获悉,10月24日,天龙三号大型液体运载火箭"一箭36星"分离试验, 在天兵科技张家港智能制造基地顺利完成。本次试验是国内首次实现36星同步分离,标志着我国商业航 天在多星部署、大运力交付能力上取得重要突破。天龙三号是我国商业航天首款近地轨道运载能力有望 超过20吨的运载火箭,全箭长72米,起飞重量约600吨,计划于2025年底前首飞。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has shown significant activity, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 4000 points for the first time since August 2015, driven by sectors such as controllable nuclear fusion, domestic software, PCB, and commercial aerospace [1][3]. Controllable Nuclear Fusion Sector - The controllable nuclear fusion concept stocks have been on a continuous rise, with companies like Dongfang Tantalum and Antai Technology seeing multiple trading gains. Recent reports indicate that key materials for "artificial sun" technology have achieved domestic industrialization [1][7]. - The research team at the Chinese Academy of Sciences has successfully industrialized high-purity ton-level Hastelloy C276 metal substrates, which are crucial for the production of second-generation high-temperature superconducting tapes used in controllable nuclear fusion [7][8]. - Controllable nuclear fusion is recognized as a vital future energy direction, with advantages over nuclear fission, including minimal radioactive pollution and abundant raw materials sourced from seawater [9]. PCB Sector - PCB concept stocks have collectively strengthened, with companies like Aisen Co. and Meilian New Materials seeing gains exceeding 11%. Shengyi Technology has also reported a significant increase in revenue and profit forecasts, projecting a revenue increase of 108% to 121% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2025 [4]. Domestic Software Sector - Domestic software stocks have shown active performance, with several companies reaching their daily price limits. The recent policy support from the government is expected to accelerate demand for domestic software and hardware companies, particularly as some leading firms enter a phase of performance realization [4]. Commercial Aerospace Sector - The commercial aerospace sector has rebounded, with companies like Aerospace Development reaching their price limits. A recent successful test of a large liquid rocket by Tianbing Technology marks a significant milestone in China's commercial aerospace capabilities [4]. Financial Sector - The financial sector has also seen notable movements, with companies like Ruida Futures and Huijin Co. experiencing sharp increases in stock prices [5]. Market Overview - The A-share market's three major indices opened lower but rose throughout the day, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 4005.44 points, up 0.21%. The onshore RMB also appreciated against the USD, reaching its highest level since November 2024, which may enhance foreign investment in RMB assets [3]. - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has introduced measures to optimize the Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor (QFII) system, aiming to create a more transparent and efficient investment environment for foreign investors [3].

Core Insights - The successful separation test of the Tianlong-3 large liquid launch vehicle, achieving "one rocket, 36 satellites," marks a significant breakthrough in China's commercial aerospace sector, particularly in multi-satellite deployment and heavy-lift delivery capabilities [1][2] Group 1: Technological Advancements - The Tianlong-3's separation system utilizes a memory alloy unlocking mechanism, which reduces impact strength by 90%, weight by 60%, and costs to only 30% of traditional methods, enhancing safety, testability, and impact control [1] - The test validates the design and reliability of the separation system, confirming the Tianlong-3's capability for large-scale satellite launches [1] Group 2: Market Implications - The advancements in the separation system and other innovative technologies position the Tianlong-3 to meet international standards in reliability and cost, providing efficient and low-cost launch services for low Earth orbit satellite constellations [2] - With the rapid development of China's satellite internet infrastructure, there is an anticipated demand for over 30,000 satellite launches, making high reliability, frequency, and low-cost launch capabilities critical for industry growth [2] Group 3: Company Development - Tianbing Technology has established a comprehensive development path from core components and technological innovation to commercial launch services, laying a solid foundation for large-scale network launches [2] - The company has built a full-chain layout covering rocket self-research, large-scale manufacturing, and dedicated launch facilities, with plans to execute the first Tianlong-3 flight by the end of 2025 and support over 60 high-frequency launches annually [2]

Group 1 - Tianlong-3 large liquid launch vehicle successfully completed the "one arrow 36 stars" separation test, marking the first domestic achievement of 36 satellites separating simultaneously, setting a record for the highest number of satellites in a single application scenario [1] - The breakthrough in the star-arrow separation system will support Tianlong-3 in achieving international standards in reliability and cost, providing reliable, efficient, and low-cost launch services for low-orbit satellite constellation networking tasks [1] - Huatai Securities indicates that the commercial aerospace sector is experiencing a triple inflection point in policy, performance, and technology, with the 14th Five-Year Plan emphasizing the goal of building a strong aerospace nation [1] Group 2 - Shaanxi Huada's three major product categories are applied in the commercial aerospace field, maintaining an industry-leading position and supporting key national aerospace projects such as Xingwang and Qianfan Constellation [2] - China Satellite actively participates in the development of the commercial aerospace industry, focusing on satellite internet and contributing to the development and supply of satellite payloads, solar cells, ground control station baseband processing equipment, and various communication and navigation terminal products [2]

Group 1: Physical AI and Robotics - NVIDIA is hosting the Global Technology Conference (GTC 2025) from October 27-29, focusing on "Physical AI and Robotics" [1] - Research institutions believe Physical AI is transforming the foundational logic of robot training from "empiricism" based on real data to "rationalism" based on physical laws [1] - NVIDIA's comprehensive technology solution is facilitating the transition of Physical AI from laboratories to industrial, medical, and household applications, with a vast market potential [1][2] Group 2: Autonomous Driving - Tesla announced the "World Simulator," a neural network system that generates realistic virtual driving scenarios, allowing AI to learn the equivalent of 500 years of human driving experience in one day [1] - The World Simulator is a key tool for Tesla's advancements in autonomous driving and robotics, significantly reducing reliance on real-world testing [1][2] - The emergence of world models indicates AI's attempt to understand the world, which could redefine human-machine interaction boundaries [2] Group 3: Deep Sea Technology - China's first ice-capable manned submersible mother ship, "Exploration No. 3," successfully completed 43 missions in the Arctic, marking a significant achievement in deep-sea technology [3] - Deep-sea technology has been recognized as a national strategic core area, with government support aimed at accelerating research and industrialization [3] - The complete industrial chain for deep-sea technology in China is expected to lead to efficient and collaborative development, positioning it as a potential growth driver in the marine economy [3] Group 4: Robotics - Shouxing Technology has undergone a business change, with Ant Group's subsidiary becoming a shareholder, focusing on high-end humanoid robot development [4] - The company aims to reshape human-machine interaction through advanced bionic design and brain-like intelligent decision-making [4] Group 5: Commercial Aerospace - Tianbing Technology successfully conducted a separation test for its Tianlong-3 rocket, achieving a record of 36 satellites separating simultaneously, enhancing China's capabilities in commercial space launches [5] - The test is expected to support the development of low-cost launch services for low-orbit satellite constellations, contributing to the acceleration of China's space infrastructure [5] Group 6: Fast Charging Standards - The International Telecommunication Union has officially published the global standard L.1004 for mobile terminal fast charging, developed by a consortium including Huawei and OPPO [6] - This standard aims to enhance compatibility across different brands and devices, promoting a more efficient and user-friendly charging experience [6]

人民财讯10月27日电，据天兵科技消息，10月24日，天龙三号大型液体运载火箭"一箭36星"分离试验在 天兵科技张家港智能制造基地顺利完成。本次试验是国内首次实现36星同步分离，创下国内应用场景卫 星数量最多的纪录，标志着我国商业航天在多星部署、大运力交付能力上取得重要突破。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Jiangsu Tianbing Aerospace Technology Co., Ltd. (Tianbing Technology) has initiated its IPO process, marking a significant step in the expansion of China's commercial aerospace sector [1][4]. Group 1: IPO and Financing - Tianbing Technology has completed IPO counseling registration with the Jiangsu Securities Regulatory Bureau, with CITIC Securities as the counseling agency [1]. - The company recently raised nearly 2.5 billion yuan (approximately 0.35 billion USD) in Pre-D and D rounds of financing, with notable investors including Guoyu Gaohua, Jishan Group, and others [1]. Group 2: Technological Advancements and Safety Measures - In September, Tianbing Technology successfully conducted a full-system sea trial of the Tianlong-3 large liquid launch vehicle's first-stage propulsion system, setting a new domestic record for thrust in commercial aerospace [1][3]. - Following a serious accident in June 2022, the company implemented 127 technical improvements and upgraded its safety management system, enhancing the reliability of its rocket systems [3][4]. - The company has adopted a "zero-day" safety control plan and conducted multiple emergency drills in collaboration with local authorities to ensure safety during trials [4]. Group 3: Strategic Developments - Tianbing Technology has transitioned from land-based testing to sea-based hot testing, successfully overcoming key technical challenges related to wind and salt spray [4]. - The introduction of redundancy and margin principles in rocket design aims to prevent single-point failures from leading to mission failures or safety incidents, thereby establishing a more robust safety assurance system [4].

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that Jiangsu Tianbing Aerospace Technology Co., Ltd. has officially submitted its listing guidance record, marking a significant step in the commercialization and scaling of China's commercial aerospace sector [1] Group 2 - Tianbing Technology has achieved a domestic record for thrust in liquid rocket engines with the successful sea test of the Tianlong-3 large liquid launch vehicle, indicating its capability for batch launches [2] - The Tianlong-3 rocket is expected to have a near-Earth orbit capacity exceeding 20 tons, comparable to SpaceX's Falcon 9, and can support the launch of 36 satellites in one go, addressing the demand for high-reliability, high-frequency, and low-cost satellite launches in China [2] Group 3 - Prior to initiating its IPO guidance, Tianbing Technology completed nearly 2.5 billion RMB in financing, which will be used for rocket mass production and the development of new-generation engines [3] - The company has established a comprehensive industrial chain covering rocket research, large-scale manufacturing, and dedicated launch facilities, with an initial capacity to produce 30 Tianlong-3 rockets and 500 Tianhu series engines annually [3] Group 4 - The demand for launching over 30,000 satellites for China's satellite internet construction presents a vast market opportunity for commercial aerospace [4] - The initiation of the IPO by Tianbing Technology signifies a transition from "technology validation" to "scale commercialization" in China's commercial aerospace sector, driven by policy support and market demand [4]