Core Insights - The report indicates that China's fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) market saw a year-on-year sales growth of 1.3% in the first three quarters, driven primarily by a 3.8% increase in sales volume, despite a 2.4% decline in average prices [1][2] Market Performance - The FMCG market experienced a notable recovery in Q1 with a 2.7% year-on-year sales growth, while growth slowed to 0.7% and 0.4% in Q2 and Q3 respectively [1] - The report highlights that third to fifth-tier cities contributed approximately 80% to the overall growth of the FMCG market, driven by urbanization, stable local consumption, and accelerated market penetration by brands and retailers [1] Category Analysis - The FMCG market is segmented into four categories: packaged food, beverages, personal care, and home care. All categories except beverages saw sales growth, with packaged food growing by 3.4%, personal care by 1.1%, and home care by 3.3% [2] - Beverage prices fell by 4.6% year-on-year, attributed to intensified brand competition and the impact of emerging channels [2] - Among 27 subcategories, 19 faced downward price pressure, particularly in personal and home care, while premium products in categories like chocolate and baby formula showed price recovery [2] Channel Dynamics - Offline discount stores, snack shops, and warehouse membership stores saw significant sales growth of 92%, 51%, and 40% respectively, with their market shares increasing [3] - The e-commerce landscape is evolving, with Taobao/Tmall's market share decreasing to 28%, while Douyin's share increased to 26% [3] - Instant retail channels reversed last year's decline with a 7.9% growth in Q3, benefiting from the popularity of delivery services [3] Retail Trends - Three major trends in retail channels are identified: increasing convenience for quick access to products, a shift towards discount-oriented formats, and the evolution of retail brands into collaborative partners with product creators [4]

Core Viewpoint - H&H International Holdings (01112) has shown strong revenue growth in Q3 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 28.5%, leading to a positive market response with a stock price increase of 5.15% [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, H&H International Holdings reported a revenue of 10.81 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12% [1] - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 3.79 billion yuan, which is a 28.1% increase compared to the same quarter last year [1] - The company's revenue growth is primarily driven by the strong performance of its infant formula segment, which exceeded market expectations [1] Group 2: Business Segments - The company's ANC (Adult Nutrition Category) business is expanding its online channels and overseas markets, maintaining its industry-leading position [1] - The BNC (Baby Nutrition Category) business is showing continuous improvement, with a strong growth in ultra-premium infant formula, gaining market share despite industry challenges [1] - The PNC (Personal Nutrition Category) is advancing the high-end process in the Chinese market and global layout, with expectations for continued improvement in internal profits [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve a high single to low double-digit revenue growth for the full year, with all three business segments maintaining a positive growth trend [1] - The ANC segment is projected to achieve a year-on-year growth in the mid to high single digits, while the BNC segment is expected to grow over 20% year-on-year [1] - The PNC segment is anticipated to see a low double-digit year-on-year growth, with the company maintaining a healthy profit margin and optimizing financial costs [1]

Core Viewpoint - H&H International Holdings (01112) has shown strong revenue growth in Q3 2025, exceeding market expectations, with a notable increase in its debt structure optimization [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, H&H International Holdings reported a revenue increase of 12.3% year-on-year, with Q3 revenue rising by 28.5% [1] - The company's revenue for the first nine months of 2025 reached 10.81 billion yuan, reflecting a 12% year-on-year growth [1] - Q3 2025 revenue was 3.79 billion yuan, marking a 28.1% increase compared to the same period last year [1] Group 2: Business Segments - The company's ANC (Adult Nutrition Category) business is expanding its online channels and overseas markets, maintaining its industry-leading position [1] - The BNC (Baby Nutrition Category) business is showing continuous improvement, with strong growth in ultra-premium infant formula, gaining market share [1] - The PNC (Personal Nutrition Category) is advancing the high-end process in the Chinese market and global layout, with internal profits expected to continue improving [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve a high single to low double-digit revenue growth for the full year, with all three business segments maintaining a positive growth trend [1] - ANC is projected to achieve a mid to high single-digit year-on-year revenue growth for the full year, while BNC is expected to exceed 20% year-on-year growth [1] - PNC is anticipated to see low double-digit year-on-year growth, with the company maintaining a healthy profit margin and optimizing financial costs in 2025 [1]

Core Viewpoint - H&H International Holdings has shown strong revenue growth in Q3 2025, exceeding market expectations, driven by robust performance in its infant formula segment [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, H&H International Holdings reported a revenue of 10.81 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 12% [1] - In Q3 2025, the company's revenue reached 3.79 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 28.1% [1] - The company is expected to achieve a full-year revenue growth in the high single to low double digits, with all three business segments showing positive growth trends [1] Group 2: Business Segments - The ANC (Adult Nutrition Category) business is anticipated to achieve a year-on-year growth in the mid to high single digits for the full year [1] - The BNC (Baby Nutrition Category) is projected to grow over 20% year-on-year [1] - The PNC (Personal Nutrition Category) is expected to see a low double-digit year-on-year growth [1] Group 3: Debt and Profitability - The company's debt structure continues to improve, contributing to a healthy profit margin outlook for 2025 [1] - Financial costs are expected to continue optimizing, supporting overall profitability [1]

机构：中金公司 研究员：陈文博/王文丹 公司近况 公司公布3Q25 经营数据：9M25 收入108.1 亿元，同比+12%（按照同类比较基准增长12.3%）；其中 3Q25 收入37.9 亿元，同比+28.1%；经营数据超市场预期，主因婴配奶粉增长超预期。 评论 预计全年收入同比增长高单至低双，利润率有望保持健康水平。 我们预计公司全年收入有望实现同比高单至低双的增长，三大板块收入均将保持较好增长趋势；其中 ANC全年收入有望实现同比中至高单增长，BNC全年收入有望同比增长超20%，PNC全年收入有望同比 增长低双位数。利润端，我们预计公司25 年将维持健康的利润率水平，财务成本有望持续优化。 盈利预测与估值 考虑奶粉业务表现亮眼，上调25/26 年盈利预测5.1%/4.3%至6.7/7.9 亿元，公司当前交易于12/10 倍25/26 年P/E。维持目标价17.7 港币，对应16/13 倍25/26 年P/E和29%股价上行空间，维持跑赢行业评级。 风险 需求疲弱；竞争加剧；新品拓展不及预期；关税不确定性。 3Q25 BNC 婴配奶粉表现亮眼，ANC 及PNC 稳健增长。分业务看：1）BNC：3Q25 收入 ...

Core Viewpoint - H&H International Holdings (01112) reported strong Q3 performance with a 28.1% year-on-year revenue increase to HKD 3.79 billion, driven by exceptional growth in the BNC segment, particularly in infant formula [1][2] Performance Summary - For the first nine months of 2025, revenue reached HKD 10.81 billion, reflecting a 12% year-on-year increase, with Q3 revenue at HKD 3.79 billion, up 28.1% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations primarily due to infant formula growth [1][3] Segment Performance - **BNC (Infant Formula)**: Q3 revenue surged 90.6% to HKD 1.47 billion, with infant formula sales up 104% to HKD 1.23 billion. The market share in China's ultra-premium infant formula segment increased to 17.3% due to ongoing investments in maternal and e-commerce channels [2] - **ANC (Adult Nutrition)**: Q3 revenue grew 5.6% (6.3% on a comparable basis) to HKD 1.8 billion, with a 15.7% year-on-year increase in the China region, now accounting for 70.6% of total revenue. Cross-border e-commerce and Douyin channels showed significant growth [2] - **PNC (Pet Nutrition)**: Q3 revenue increased 7.3% to HKD 510 million, with steady performance in both China and North America [2] Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve high single to low double-digit revenue growth in 2025, with all three segments maintaining positive growth trends. Profit margins are anticipated to remain healthy, supported by ongoing financial cost optimization [3] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The earnings forecast for 2025 and 2026 has been raised by 5.1% and 4.3% to HKD 670 million and HKD 790 million, respectively. The current trading multiples are 12x and 10x for 2025 and 2026 P/E, with a target price of HKD 17.7, indicating a 29% upside potential [4]

Summary of H&H Holdings Conference Call Industry Overview - The global dietary supplement (VDS) market is experiencing steady growth, with a market size of approximately $132.4 billion in 2023 and an annual growth rate of 4%-5% [2][7] - The Chinese health supplement market is growing significantly faster than the global average, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8%-9% from 2010 to 2023, increasing from over 70 billion yuan to around 224 billion yuan [2][7] - The health supplement industry in China benefits from aging demographics and new consumption trends, with online sales channels accelerating, rising to 60% post-pandemic [2][9] Company Insights - H&H Holdings has transformed into a health supplement company primarily focused on adult health, with over 90% of Swisse brand revenue coming from online channels, maintaining a market share of 7%-8% [2][11] - The company has diversified its brand matrix by launching new brands targeting teenagers, children, and pets, such as Swisse Me, Little Swisse, and Plus [2][11] - H&H Holdings is actively expanding its oral beauty product line, including high-margin products like super light bottles and anti-sugar pills, which are expected to enhance profitability [2][14] Financial Performance and Projections - H&H Holdings is expected to optimize interest expenses by approximately 100 million yuan in 2025 through the replacement of high-interest dollar debt with domestic low-interest loans, which will directly enhance profits [2][5][21] - The company anticipates an adjusted net profit of around 700 million yuan in 2025, representing a nearly 30% year-on-year growth, indicating a turning point in its fundamentals [2][23] - The company’s revenue structure has shifted, with a 24%-25% decline in milk powder revenue in 2024 due to regulatory changes, but a recovery of 44% in the first quarter of 2025 is expected [2][13][14] Market Strategy and Brand Development - H&H Holdings is focusing on the Southeast Asian market for expansion, aiming to replicate the success of the Swisse brand in this region [2][20][27] - The company’s management team has extensive experience in fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) and foreign investment, which supports strategic clarity and revenue stability across different phases [2][16] - The Swisse brand has expanded its core family nutrition series to include oral beauty products, which are expected to drive future growth [2][15] Risk Assessment - The company has a high level of goodwill, approximately 7.8 billion yuan, primarily concentrated in the Swisse and pet brands, which are performing well with no significant impairment risks [2][22] - Legal issues are not expected to significantly impact the company's financial status, as past experiences suggest a favorable outcome in similar cases [2][25] Conclusion - H&H Holdings is positioned for significant growth in the health supplement market, with a strong focus on online sales and brand diversification. The company’s financial outlook is positive, with expectations of increased profitability and market expansion, particularly in Southeast Asia. The management's strategic decisions and market positioning provide a solid foundation for future growth [2][26][27]