机构：中金公司 研究员：陈文博/王文丹 公司近况 公司公布3Q25 经营数据：9M25 收入108.1 亿元，同比+12%（按照同类比较基准增长12.3%）；其中 3Q25 收入37.9 亿元，同比+28.1%；经营数据超市场预期，主因婴配奶粉增长超预期。 评论 预计全年收入同比增长高单至低双，利润率有望保持健康水平。 我们预计公司全年收入有望实现同比高单至低双的增长，三大板块收入均将保持较好增长趋势；其中 ANC全年收入有望实现同比中至高单增长，BNC全年收入有望同比增长超20%，PNC全年收入有望同比 增长低双位数。利润端，我们预计公司25 年将维持健康的利润率水平，财务成本有望持续优化。 盈利预测与估值 考虑奶粉业务表现亮眼，上调25/26 年盈利预测5.1%/4.3%至6.7/7.9 亿元，公司当前交易于12/10 倍25/26 年P/E。维持目标价17.7 港币，对应16/13 倍25/26 年P/E和29%股价上行空间，维持跑赢行业评级。 风险 需求疲弱；竞争加剧；新品拓展不及预期；关税不确定性。 3Q25 BNC 婴配奶粉表现亮眼，ANC 及PNC 稳健增长。分业务看：1）BNC：3Q25 收入 ...

预计2025年收入同比增长高单至低双，利润率有望保持健康水平 该行预计公司全年收入有望实现同比高单至低双的增长，三大板块收入均将保持较好增长趋势;其中 ANC全年收入有望实现同比中至高单增长，BNC全年收入有望同比增长超20%，PNC全年收入有望同比 增长低双位数。利润端，该行预计公司25年将维持健康的利润率水平，财务成本有望持续优化。 中金主要观点如下： 业绩表现 9M25收入108.1亿元，同比+12%(按照同类比较基准增长12.3%);其中3Q25收入37.9亿元，同比+28.1%;经 营数据超市场预期，主因婴配奶粉增长超预期。 25Q3BNC婴配奶粉表现亮眼，ANC及PNC稳健增长 1)BNC：Q3收入同比+90.6%至14.7亿元，其中婴配奶粉收入同比+104%至12.3亿元，合生元在中国超高 端婴配奶粉市场的份额于3Q提升至17.3%，主因公司持续投入母婴及电商渠道推进消费者教育;益生菌 收入同比+58.8%至1.8亿元，主因线上及母婴渠道增势较好，且药店渠道逐步企稳。 2)ANC：25Q3收入同比+5.6%(可比口径6.3%)至18亿元，实现稳健增长。9M25中国区收入同比 +15.7%，占比提 ...

Summary of H&H Holdings Conference Call Industry Overview - The global dietary supplement (VDS) market is experiencing steady growth, with a market size of approximately $132.4 billion in 2023 and an annual growth rate of 4%-5% [2][7] - The Chinese health supplement market is growing significantly faster than the global average, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8%-9% from 2010 to 2023, increasing from over 70 billion yuan to around 224 billion yuan [2][7] - The health supplement industry in China benefits from aging demographics and new consumption trends, with online sales channels accelerating, rising to 60% post-pandemic [2][9] Company Insights - H&H Holdings has transformed into a health supplement company primarily focused on adult health, with over 90% of Swisse brand revenue coming from online channels, maintaining a market share of 7%-8% [2][11] - The company has diversified its brand matrix by launching new brands targeting teenagers, children, and pets, such as Swisse Me, Little Swisse, and Plus [2][11] - H&H Holdings is actively expanding its oral beauty product line, including high-margin products like super light bottles and anti-sugar pills, which are expected to enhance profitability [2][14] Financial Performance and Projections - H&H Holdings is expected to optimize interest expenses by approximately 100 million yuan in 2025 through the replacement of high-interest dollar debt with domestic low-interest loans, which will directly enhance profits [2][5][21] - The company anticipates an adjusted net profit of around 700 million yuan in 2025, representing a nearly 30% year-on-year growth, indicating a turning point in its fundamentals [2][23] - The company’s revenue structure has shifted, with a 24%-25% decline in milk powder revenue in 2024 due to regulatory changes, but a recovery of 44% in the first quarter of 2025 is expected [2][13][14] Market Strategy and Brand Development - H&H Holdings is focusing on the Southeast Asian market for expansion, aiming to replicate the success of the Swisse brand in this region [2][20][27] - The company’s management team has extensive experience in fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) and foreign investment, which supports strategic clarity and revenue stability across different phases [2][16] - The Swisse brand has expanded its core family nutrition series to include oral beauty products, which are expected to drive future growth [2][15] Risk Assessment - The company has a high level of goodwill, approximately 7.8 billion yuan, primarily concentrated in the Swisse and pet brands, which are performing well with no significant impairment risks [2][22] - Legal issues are not expected to significantly impact the company's financial status, as past experiences suggest a favorable outcome in similar cases [2][25] Conclusion - H&H Holdings is positioned for significant growth in the health supplement market, with a strong focus on online sales and brand diversification. The company’s financial outlook is positive, with expectations of increased profitability and market expansion, particularly in Southeast Asia. The management's strategic decisions and market positioning provide a solid foundation for future growth [2][26][27]