Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [3] Core Views - The company is positioned as a high-cost-performance leader in the mass-market Chinese dining sector, with a robust growth trajectory and a focus on standardization and cost efficiency [1][2] - The mass-market Chinese dining industry is projected to grow at a CAGR of 8.9% from 2023 to 2028, with the company expected to capitalize on this trend through its expansion strategy [1][12] - The company has established a strong supply chain and operational standardization, which enhances its competitive edge in the market [2][46] Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company went public on December 20, 2024, raising HKD 790 million by issuing 101 million shares at an IPO price of HKD 8.5 [1] - As of 2024, the company operates 667 stores, with revenue of CNY 5.21 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 14.5%, and a net profit of CNY 581 million, up 9.1% [1][22] Industry Trends - The mass-market Chinese dining sector is valued at approximately CNY 40 trillion, with a significant shift towards cost-effective dining options [12][15] - The chain restaurant penetration rate in China is expected to rise from 15% in 2020 to 23% in 2024, indicating a trend towards standardization in the industry [1][15] Competitive Advantages - The company targets the CNY 50-100 price range, aligning with consumer preferences for value dining, and has a strong operational model that allows for rapid store expansion [2][36] - The average investment payback period for new stores is 13.8 months, shorter than the industry average of 18 months, indicating strong growth potential [2][49] - The company has built a comprehensive supply chain system, including a central kitchen and 14 warehouses, enhancing its operational efficiency [2][46] Growth Outlook - The company is expected to open 130, 160, and 175 new stores in 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with a theoretical maximum of 1,810 stores under neutral assumptions and 4,308 under optimistic scenarios [2][3] - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are CNY 62.6 billion, CNY 76.8 billion, and CNY 92.9 billion, respectively, with corresponding net profits of CNY 7.2 billion, CNY 9.1 billion, and CNY 11 billion [3][6] Financial Projections and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve an EPS of CNY 0.61, CNY 0.78, and CNY 0.94 for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with a target price of HKD 18.07 based on a 20X PE for 2026 [3][6]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The return of everyday dining and the rise of home-cooked meals are significant trends, with the market for casual dining exceeding 1.2 trillion RMB, emphasizing high cost-performance [5][58] - The creator economy, particularly in the music streaming sector, is experiencing stable growth, with platforms enhancing their bargaining power through non-music content [22][24] - The casual dining market is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.1% from 2023 to 2028, reaching 55.87 billion RMB by 2028 [56][58] Summary by Sections 1. Trend in Casual Dining - The average spending on Chinese dining has decreased from 87.6 RMB in 2023 to 79.2 RMB in 2024, a decline of 9.6% [53][55] - The casual dining market is characterized by a shift towards high cost-performance and practicality, with a significant increase in home cooking frequency [53][56] - The market for affordable casual dining (under 100 RMB per meal) is the largest segment, accounting for 88.7% of the total dining market, with a current size of 36.18 billion RMB [56][58] 2. Creator Economy and Music Streaming - The global music streaming market is projected to reach over 20.4 billion USD in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 7.3% [27][30] - Subscription users in the music streaming sector are expected to grow to 263 million in 2024, reflecting an increase of 11% year-on-year [30] - Spotify's market penetration in emerging markets is driving user growth, with a CAGR of 35% from 2021 to 2025 [26][30] 3. Trends in Toy and Creator Economy - The online sales of trendy toys in June 2025 reached 1.348 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 16% [12][14] - The sales of blind boxes and plush toys showed strong performance, with blind boxes growing by 109% year-on-year [12][13] - The creator economy is bolstered by the growth of non-music content, enhancing platforms' bargaining power [22][24] 4. Beauty and Personal Care Market - The skincare market on Tmall has seen a concentration increase, with the top 20 brands accounting for 46.2% of the total GMV [66] - Domestic brands have seen a decline in both quantity and market share, while international brands have experienced double-digit growth [66][67]

Summary of the Conference Call for "小菜园" (Little Garden) Company Overview - **Industry**: Chinese Casual Dining - **Company Name**: 小菜园 (Little Garden) - **Positioning**: Focused on home-style dishes with an average customer spend of 50-60 RMB, lower than other listed dining brands. [2][3] Key Financials - **2024 Revenue**: 5.21 billion RMB - **Net Profit**: 580 million RMB - **Number of Stores**: 667 - **Average Revenue per Store**: 7.73 million RMB - **Gross Margin**: Approximately 69% - **Operating Profit Margin**: About 19% - **Net Profit Margin**: 18%-20% per new store [2][4][16] Expansion Strategy - **Store Growth**: Rapid expansion with over 120 new stores added annually since 2022, aiming for a total of 1,000 stores by 2026 and over 2,000 by 2030. [5][20] - **Investment per New Store**: Approximately 1.3 million RMB, with a payback period of about one year. [8][9] - **Market Expansion**: Currently focused on Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai, and Anhui, with plans to expand into North and South China. [3][5] Market Challenges and Responses - **Same-store Sales Decline**: Experienced a decline of 10%-12% in same-store sales in 2024, similar to other brands in the industry. [7][19] - **Cost Structure Optimization**: Reduced rental and labor costs to maintain competitiveness and customer loyalty. [7][18] - **Employee Compensation**: Improved employee compensation structure to enhance retention and performance. [11] Unique Selling Proposition - **Home-style Flavor and Value**: Emphasizes high cost-performance ratio and a diverse menu with 45-50 dishes, catering to various tastes. [3][6] - **Standardization Efforts**: Utilizes a self-built supply chain and central kitchen to address the challenges of standardizing Chinese cuisine. [4][12][13] Employee Incentives - **Incentive Mechanisms**: Includes growth, salary, and equity incentives, with 85% of total shares allocated to employee stock ownership plans. [11][21] Future Outlook - **Revenue Growth Projections**: Expected revenue growth of 15%-20% in 2025, with a profit target of 700 million RMB. [18][22] - **Valuation Potential**: Currently valued at 15 times earnings, with potential for increase to 20 times if market conditions improve. [22] Industry Context - **Overall Market Trends**: The restaurant industry is facing increased supply but declining costs, which may benefit companies that maintain market share and continue to expand. [23] Conclusion - **Investment Opportunity**: Little Garden presents a compelling investment opportunity due to its strong growth trajectory, effective cost management, and unique market positioning within the casual dining sector. [22]