Core Insights - The Chinese catering industry is experiencing a slowdown in growth, with a significant decline in revenue growth rates and a shift in consumer spending habits [2][16][18] - The industry is undergoing a transformation characterized by increased chain operations, innovative marketing strategies, and a focus on product differentiation [5][24][35] Market Overview - National catering revenue from January to August 2025 reached 3.6 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.6%, down 3 percentage points from the same period in 2024 [2] - The number of catering outlets in China exceeded 7.6 million by August 2025, a decrease of 1.9% compared to 2024 [3] Chain Operations - The chain rate in the catering industry has accelerated, with the overall chain rate increasing from 15% in 2020 to an estimated 25% in 2025 [5][6] - The fast food segment saw a 4 percentage point increase in chain rate from 2023 to 2024, reaching 29% [6] Delivery Market Dynamics - The national food delivery market exceeded 1.27 trillion yuan in 2024, growing by 6.2% year-on-year, and is expected to exceed 1.4 trillion yuan in 2025 [9][10] - Daily food delivery orders peaked at over 200 million by August 2025, doubling from 2024 [10] Consumer Behavior - Consumer spending on dining is becoming more cautious, with a significant drop in the proportion of consumers expecting to increase their dining expenditures in 2025 [16][18] - The average per capita consumption in the catering sector fell to 36.6 yuan by August 2025, a decrease of 7.7% from 2024 [18] Industry Trends - The catering industry is witnessing a "listing wave," with several major brands going public in 2025, although many are facing financial challenges [19][22] - The average lifespan of catering outlets has decreased, with many businesses closing within two years of operation [22] Product Innovation - Brands are focusing on product innovation, with over 5,263 new products launched from January to July 2025 [25][28] - Regional ingredients and flavors are becoming key areas for product development [28][29] Marketing Strategies - Short drama marketing is emerging as a new trend, with many brands producing series to engage consumers [35] - User-generated content (UGC) marketing is gaining popularity, with brands launching interactive campaigns to enhance consumer engagement [37] Digital Transformation - The catering industry is increasingly adopting digital and AI technologies to enhance operational efficiency and customer engagement [38][41] - Brands are implementing digital systems for supply chain management and customer relationship management [39][42] International Expansion - Chinese catering brands are exploring overseas markets, with over 30 brands opening their first international locations since 2024 [43] - However, many brands are adopting a more cautious approach to international expansion in 2025 [45][46] Segment Highlights - The "small stir-fry" segment is gaining popularity, particularly in Jiangxi cuisine, with significant social media engagement [52] - The hot pot market is experiencing a decline in outlet numbers and average spending, while smaller hot pot formats are thriving [55][58] - The fast food segment is growing steadily, driven by consumer demand for value [61] - The ready-to-drink beverage market is stabilizing, with tea drinks entering an adjustment phase while coffee drinks continue to grow [64][67]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current trends in the franchise market, highlighting a shift from rapid expansion to a focus on sustainability and profitability in the food and beverage industry, particularly in the context of the recent franchise exhibition [5]. Group 1: Decline in Beverage Franchise Participation - The number of beverage brands, particularly tea and coffee, participating in exhibitions has significantly decreased, with only four tea brands present compared to nearly fifteen in previous events [7]. - This decline reflects the tea industry's transition from rapid growth to a phase of deep adjustment, as competition intensifies and market saturation increases [8]. - Franchisees are facing challenges such as reduced customer dine-in rates and increased operational costs, leading some to exit the tea beverage sector altogether [10][11]. Group 2: Stability in Snack and Fast Food Franchises - In contrast to the beverage sector, snack and fast food franchises remain dominant, accounting for over 50% of exhibitors, with average customer prices between 15-30 yuan and investment returns expected within 12-18 months [13]. - The snack and fast food sector is characterized by its essential demand and high cost-effectiveness, with a market size projected to exceed one trillion yuan in 2024, growing by 7.5% year-on-year [13]. - Many franchisees are shifting from high-investment sectors like hot pot and barbecue to snack and fast food for more stable returns [16]. Group 3: Rise of Affordable Self-Service Barbecue - A noticeable trend is the emergence of affordable self-service barbecue brands, which have gained popularity due to the rising "value-for-money" consumption mindset [18][19]. - Despite the growing interest, self-service barbecue faces operational challenges, including limited profit margins and high demands for effective cost management [20][21]. Group 4: Decreasing Brand Worship - There is a diminishing trend of franchisees being attracted solely by well-known brands, as the perception that a big brand guarantees success is being challenged [24][25]. - Higher initial investments associated with top brands are leading franchisees to consider alternative, less costly options that offer quicker returns and greater operational flexibility [26]. Group 5: Cost Reduction Strategies - Many brands are adopting strategies to lower initial investment costs for franchisees, such as allowing self-renovation and reusing equipment, which can save over 200,000 yuan in setup costs [27][29]. - The traditional model of high upfront franchise fees is being replaced by more flexible arrangements, focusing on revenue sharing and stable supply chain profits [29]. Conclusion - The franchise market is shifting towards a more calculated approach, prioritizing the sustainability of individual stores and realistic return timelines over impulsive investments and rapid expansion [31].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The future of the restaurant market in China is expected to show a "dual-driven" development trend, characterized by a focus on "cost-performance" and category innovation, leading to differentiated consumption patterns [3] - In 2024, the national restaurant revenue is projected to reach nearly 5.6 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.3%, and the number of restaurant outlets is expected to approach 8 million, with a chain rate increasing to 22% [3][9] - The report highlights five major development trends in the restaurant market: significant track segmentation, a strong "smoky" consumption atmosphere, continuous category integration, innovative scene-based marketing, and a burgeoning trend of going overseas [3][60] Summary by Sections 1. Overview of the Restaurant Industry - The restaurant industry is entering a phase of competition within a 5 trillion yuan market, maintaining strong vitality [6] - In 2024, the national restaurant revenue is expected to exceed 5.5 trillion yuan, showcasing resilience and contributing significantly to the consumer market [9][10] 2. Track Insights - The innovation and iteration of store models are accelerating, with upstream service providers supporting brand expansion and upgrades [30] - The restaurant brands are exploring diverse store models to meet various consumer needs, including satellite stores and theme-based designs [36][41] 3. Development Highlights - The market is returning to "freshly cooked" offerings, with brands emphasizing the "smoky" atmosphere in their innovations [66] - The report identifies five key highlights: track segmentation, a strong "smoky" consumption atmosphere, deepening category integration, innovative scene-based marketing, and an ongoing trend of international expansion [60][61] 4. Segmented Tracks - The fast food segment is expected to lead in growth, with a market size exceeding 1 trillion yuan and a year-on-year growth rate of 7.5% in 2024 [3][76] - The report notes that Sichuan cuisine, Cantonese cuisine, Jiangsu-Zhejiang cuisine, and Hunan cuisine are the top four in terms of store numbers, with Hunan cuisine showing the highest growth rate [80] 5. Trends and Conclusions - The main theme of "cost-performance" continues to deepen, while category innovation is expected to show "dual breakthroughs" [3][5] - The report emphasizes the importance of adapting to consumer preferences and market dynamics to seize new opportunities in the evolving restaurant landscape [3][60]