投放加大导致短期盈利低于预期 看好双品 牌驱动未来成长 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 根据中报，我们小幅调整公司盈利预测，预计 2025-2027 年每股收益分别为 1.07、 1.44 和 1.83 元（原预测为 1.11、1.44 和 1.85 元），DCF 目标估值为 43.39 元，维 持"增持"评级。 风险提示 行业竞争加剧、终端消费低于预期、费用投放超预期等 丸美生物 603983.SH 公司研究 | 中报点评 | | 增持 （维持） | | --- | --- | | 股价（2025年08月26日） | 41.83 元 | | 目标价格 | 43.39 元 | | 52 周最高价/最低价 | 56.36/19.79 元 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（万股） | 40,100/40,100 | | A 股市值（百万元） | 16,774 | | 国家/地区 | 中国 | | 行业 | 纺织服装 | | 报告发布日期 | 2025 年 08 月 26 日 | | | 1 周 | 1 月 | 3 月 | 12 月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现% ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights the rapid growth of instant retail, with daily order volumes for Taobao Flash Sale and Meituan Flash Sale reaching new highs, indicating a competitive landscape among major platforms [5][25] - The report emphasizes the shift in the instant retail industry from speed competition to comprehensive strength competition, driven by significant investments from major e-commerce platforms [26] - The report suggests focusing on high-quality companies in high-growth sectors driven by emotional consumption themes [8][29] Summary by Sections Retail Market Review - The retail industry index rose by 2.20% during the week of July 7 to July 11, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.11 percentage points [7][14] - The internet e-commerce sector showed the largest increase among retail sub-sectors, with a weekly rise of 4.37% [17][20] Retail Insights: Instant Retail Competition - Taobao Flash Sale and Meituan Flash Sale reported daily order volumes exceeding 80 million and 150 million, respectively, contributing significantly to market growth [5][25] - Major platforms are implementing substantial subsidy programs to support merchant transformations, indicating a trend towards a three-way competitive landscape [26] Focus on High-Growth Quality Companies - Investment themes include: - **Gold and Jewelry**: Focus on brands with differentiated product offerings, recommending companies like Laopuhuangjin and Chaohongji [8][29] - **Offline Retail**: Emphasizing companies that adapt to trends, with recommendations for Yonghui Supermarket and Aiyingshi [8][29] - **Cosmetics**: Highlighting domestic brands with strong differentiation, recommending brands like Maogeping and Pola [8][29] - **Medical Aesthetics**: Focusing on companies with differentiated product lines, recommending Aimeike and Kedi-B [8][29] Company-Specific Insights - **Zhou Dafu**: FY2025 revenue of 89.66 billion HKD (-17.5%), net profit of 5.916 billion HKD (-9.0%), focusing on product structure optimization [31][36] - **Laopuhuangjin**: FY2024 revenue of 8.506 billion CNY (+167.5%), net profit of 1.473 billion CNY (+253.9%), benefiting from brand expansion [31][36] - **Chaohongji**: 2025Q1 revenue of 2.252 billion CNY (+25.4%), net profit of 189 million CNY (+44.4%), driven by differentiated product offerings [31][39] - **Mao Ge Ping**: FY2024 revenue of 3.885 billion CNY (+34.6%), net profit of 881 million CNY (+33.0%), focusing on high-end cosmetics [31][39] - **Polaya**: FY2024 revenue of 10.778 billion CNY (+21.0%), net profit of 1.552 billion CNY (+30.0%), maintaining a strong position in the domestic market [31][39]

Summary of Marubi Biotech Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Marubi Biotech - **Industry**: Beauty and Health Key Points and Arguments Financial Performance and Strategy - Marubi Biotech has improved its gross margin significantly by streamlining SKUs and implementing a big product strategy, particularly with the Xiaohongbi and Xiaojin series. The supply chain turnover period has been reduced from 90 days to approximately 40 days, enhancing operational efficiency. The additional profits will be reinvested into market sales expenses [2][5][6]. - In 2024, the online GMV for Xiaohongbi reached 530 million yuan, nearly doubling year-on-year, accounting for about 25% of the main brand. The Xiaojin series also saw a growth rate of approximately 90%. The company aims for at least a 50% growth in these two major products by 2025, with expectations for Xiaojin cream and Super Mask to achieve sales in the hundreds of millions [2][7][12]. Sales Channels and Marketing - Marubi's sales on content e-commerce platforms like Douyin and Kuaishou account for over 40%, with Tmall around 30% and Vipshop about 20%. The remaining sales are distributed across platforms like JD and Pinduoduo, with net profit levels across channels being relatively similar [2][15]. - The company has shifted its marketing strategy to focus on long-term growth rather than short-term sales spikes, with a series of marketing activities planned leading up to major sales events like 618 [3][12]. Product Development and Innovation - Marubi is actively expanding its product lines in the beauty and health sectors, including functional skincare brands and oral care products. The company has also invested in medical beauty projects, such as Shuangmei Biotech [2][20][21]. - The company has established a dual beauty strategy combining lifestyle beauty and medical beauty, with expectations for significant results in the medical beauty sector within three years [5][22]. Supply Chain and Operational Efficiency - The company has implemented measures to enhance supply chain efficiency, particularly in transitioning from a B2B to a B2C model, requiring faster delivery times and improved product variety [6][7]. - The integration of front, middle, and back-end management has led to significant improvements in operational speed and gross margin [6][7]. Market Trends and Consumer Behavior - The beauty market is experiencing structural changes, with a trend towards younger consumers and a shift in purchasing habits. The company aims to attract younger demographics to build brand loyalty [14][26]. - The competition in the beauty industry is intense, with a focus on product quality, content, and operational capabilities being crucial for success [29]. Future Outlook - 2025 is considered a pivotal year for Marubi, as the company aims to maintain its growth trajectory amidst increasing market competition. The company has set a three-year goal to validate its online transformation success [25][33]. - The company is also exploring opportunities for external investments and brand acquisitions, although current growth from existing brands is deemed sufficient for the near future [23][24]. Additional Important Insights - The company has a robust technical research system, particularly in collagen technology, which supports its product development and market competitiveness [22][30]. - Marubi's non-main business income primarily comes from investment subsidies and returns, indicating a diversified revenue stream [18]. This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call, highlighting Marubi Biotech's strategic initiatives, market positioning, and future growth plans.