Core Viewpoint - Bright Dairy's revenue and net profit decreased in the first half of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024, indicating challenges in the company's financial performance [1][2]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Bright Dairy reported a revenue of 12.47 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.9% year-on-year [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 217.24 million yuan, down 22.53% from the previous year [2]. - The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 252 million yuan, reflecting a decline of 27.79% year-on-year [2]. - The total profit for the period was 270.81 million yuan, an increase of 14.55% compared to the same period last year [2]. Cash Flow - The net cash flow from operating activities was 417.24 million yuan, showing a significant increase of 82.28% year-on-year, attributed to relocation compensation received [2][3]. Regional Performance - Revenue from the Shanghai region was 3.49 billion yuan, down 6.93% year-on-year [5]. - Revenue from other regions was 4.99 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.52% [5]. - Revenue from overseas regions was 3.94 billion yuan, an increase of 1.92% [5]. Asset Overview - As of the end of June 2025, Bright Dairy's overseas assets amounted to 7.14 billion yuan, accounting for 31.49% of total assets [5]. - The overseas investment in New Zealand's New Lite, which primarily produces various dairy products, reported a revenue of 3.95 billion yuan but incurred a net loss of 63.46 million yuan in the first half of 2025 [6].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese dairy market, dominated by Yili and Mengniu, is facing a downturn in revenue and profit after years of growth, primarily due to overcapacity and changing consumer preferences [4][5][6]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Yili and Mengniu together hold over 50% of the Chinese dairy market share, with liquid milk being the main revenue driver, accounting for over 80% of their income [4]. - The introduction of sterilization packaging technology in 1997 significantly extended the shelf life of milk, allowing these companies to expand nationally [4]. - The past decade saw continuous growth in the dairy market, but a shift occurred last year with both leading companies experiencing revenue and profit declines [4][5]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Issues - The relaxation of the two-child policy in 2016 and the COVID-19 pandemic increased health awareness, boosting dairy consumption, but also led to overestimation of future demand and subsequent capacity expansions by producers [5]. - The supply of raw milk has outpaced consumer demand since 2018, resulting in falling prices that have affected profitability for dairy farms [5][6]. - In 2023, the average daily spray-drying of fresh milk by leading dairy companies reached 20,000 tons, indicating a significant surplus [5]. Group 3: Consumer Behavior Changes - Consumer preferences have shifted towards alternatives like tea, coffee, and snacks, leading to a 3% year-on-year decline in dairy consumption [6]. - The retail price of milk has dropped over 5% since the beginning of 2023, prompting companies to increase promotional efforts, which has further strained profit margins [6][7]. Group 4: Strategic Responses - In response to overcapacity, many farms are reducing herd sizes and eliminating less productive cows, with a projected decrease of about 200,000 dairy cows this year [7]. - Yili and Mengniu are exploring partnerships with coffee and tea brands to create customized dairy products, aiming to adapt to changing consumer tastes [9]. - The B2B market for dairy products is estimated to be worth hundreds of billions, but a significant portion is still dominated by imported brands, indicating potential growth opportunities for local companies [9].