机构：华泰证券 研究员：樊俊豪/曾珺 公司公布1H25 业绩：收入29.27 亿元/yoy+0.02%，录得归母净利润3.09亿元/yoy+0.39%，对应归母净利 率10.6%/yoy+0.04pct，收入及利润端整体表现稳健。1H25 宣派每股股息0.3107 港元（对应人民币 0.2836 元），分红率95%，股东回馈优渥。期内公司不断捕捉需求端变化，完善产品研发机制，B 端产 品定制化能力提升。渠道端践行精细化管理，强化KA 终端管理，驱动第三方经销商渠道收入同比增长 2.1%。立足长期，公司持续推进供应链全球化布局和B 端能力建设，积极推进以增量利润为关键激励指 标的内部考核体系，盈利稳定性和经营韧性有望持续验证。维持"增持"评级。 3.7%/+8.2%/+1.2% ， 单公斤平均售价分别同比-1.9%/-8.2%/-6.5%，销量分别同 比-1.7%/+17.6%/+8.1%，火锅调味料销量受关联方采购量减少影响，B 端客户对复合调味料采购量增加 弥补其单价下滑影响。1H25 公司火锅调味料/复合调味料/方便速食毛利率分别达31.2%/33.6%/24.0%， 同比分别-0.1pct/-1.1pc ...

不难理解，作为曾经负责哪吒汽车国内市场营销的相关负责人之一，在张磊（化名）任期内的哪吒汽车历经无数"高光时刻"，不仅2022年问鼎"国内新势 力车企年度销量冠军"，风头一度盖过"蔚小理"，更成为彼时汽车、资本市场眼中的璞玉。在外界看来，这家血脉中融合了传统车企、地方国资和"清华 系"基因的新势力，完全具备"我命由我不由天"的黑马潜质。 但突然的转折也让张磊始料未及。2024年新年钟声敲响，哪吒汽车的销量最终定格在12.7万辆，仅为2023年年初定下目标的一半。很快，"销量滑坡"的责 任被分割划清，一部分员工的年终奖被打了7折，一纸职务调整公告则结束了张磊在哪吒汽车的职业生涯。面对《每日经济新闻》记者的"旧事重提"，他 笑了笑，声音多了些无奈。 曾以29亿元投资、并成为第二大股东的"红衣教主"周鸿祎（360集团创始人、董事长），用他的"流量"为哪吒汽车站台，直播、拍卖迈巴赫、吐槽高管等 话题不断涌上热搜，但最终未能拯救哪吒汽车于"水火之中"，甚至导致品牌形象进一步受损。 8月11日，中国执行信息公开网的一则因违反财产报告制度，被广州海珠区法院列为失信被执行人的公告，再次将哪吒汽车拉回公众视野。 "别问了，别问了 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese dairy market, dominated by Yili and Mengniu, is facing a downturn in revenue and profit after years of growth, primarily due to overcapacity and changing consumer preferences [4][5][6]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Yili and Mengniu together hold over 50% of the Chinese dairy market share, with liquid milk being the main revenue driver, accounting for over 80% of their income [4]. - The introduction of sterilization packaging technology in 1997 significantly extended the shelf life of milk, allowing these companies to expand nationally [4]. - The past decade saw continuous growth in the dairy market, but a shift occurred last year with both leading companies experiencing revenue and profit declines [4][5]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Issues - The relaxation of the two-child policy in 2016 and the COVID-19 pandemic increased health awareness, boosting dairy consumption, but also led to overestimation of future demand and subsequent capacity expansions by producers [5]. - The supply of raw milk has outpaced consumer demand since 2018, resulting in falling prices that have affected profitability for dairy farms [5][6]. - In 2023, the average daily spray-drying of fresh milk by leading dairy companies reached 20,000 tons, indicating a significant surplus [5]. Group 3: Consumer Behavior Changes - Consumer preferences have shifted towards alternatives like tea, coffee, and snacks, leading to a 3% year-on-year decline in dairy consumption [6]. - The retail price of milk has dropped over 5% since the beginning of 2023, prompting companies to increase promotional efforts, which has further strained profit margins [6][7]. Group 4: Strategic Responses - In response to overcapacity, many farms are reducing herd sizes and eliminating less productive cows, with a projected decrease of about 200,000 dairy cows this year [7]. - Yili and Mengniu are exploring partnerships with coffee and tea brands to create customized dairy products, aiming to adapt to changing consumer tastes [9]. - The B2B market for dairy products is estimated to be worth hundreds of billions, but a significant portion is still dominated by imported brands, indicating potential growth opportunities for local companies [9].

Group 1 - The domestic cheese industry is gradually moving out of the price war impact of cheese sticks and is beginning to regain growth through transformation towards snackification and entering the B-end market [1][3] - Major cheese companies in China are shifting their growth strategies towards new snack scenarios and the B-end market, particularly in response to the challenges faced during the price wars [3][5] - In 2024, Miaokelando reported a revenue of 4.84 billion yuan, a decrease of 9% year-on-year, but a net profit attributable to shareholders of 110 million yuan, an increase of 89.2% [3][5] Group 2 - The ready-to-eat nutrition series, including cheese sticks, saw significant revenue declines in 2022 and 2023 due to market competition, but in 2024, this segment's revenue grew by 3.2% to 2.05 billion yuan [5] - The retail cheese market's sales decreased by 8.7% in the first quarter of 2025, but the decline is narrowing, with adult snack cheese showing high growth [5][6] - Companies are expanding their product offerings to cover all age groups and new consumption scenarios, including office snacks and fitness supplements [5][6] Group 3 - The cheese market in China is expected to follow trends seen in Japan, where cheese consumption has increased significantly due to aging demographics and the rise of Western-style dining [7] - The competition is shifting to the supply chain level, with domestic cheese companies relying heavily on imported raw materials, which poses new challenges [8][10] - In the first four months of 2025, China imported 63,000 tons of cheese, a year-on-year increase of 10.6%, primarily from New Zealand and Australia [8][10] Group 4 - Domestic dairy companies are exploring the production of raw cheese to reduce reliance on imports, with Miaokelando constructing a raw cheese factory expected to be operational by 2026 [10][11] - The construction of raw cheese factories can help stabilize the cyclical fluctuations of the dairy industry by converting excess fresh milk into high-value cheese products [10][11] - The long-term economic viability of domestic raw cheese production remains uncertain due to fluctuating milk prices [11]