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Dollar Does Not Deserve Its 'Very Rich Valuation,' Goldman Strategist Says
Youtube· 2025-12-03 16:34
In recent days, particularly since the market took a turn in pricing, we've seen guests be a little less concerned about the labor market than they had been before this data blackout. You are still concerned about the labor market. Explain why.Good morning and thanks for having me. Yes, I think that, you know, what you have seen in the data lull is that some of the second tier data indicators, also some of the private sector indicators have still indicated a tentative signal that the layoff rate is beginnin ...
每日机构分析:9月22日
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-22 12:56
Group 1 - The core driver of market growth is a loose financial environment, supported by expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and fiscal stimulus providing ample buyback funds for companies [1] - The Swedish central bank is expected to maintain its policy rate at 2.0%, indicating that the current rate cut cycle may have ended due to persistent inflation and alleviated economic concerns [1] - Goldman Sachs analysts noted that the weak performance of the Korean won is partly due to domestic retail investors withdrawing funds from the stock market and reduced foreign exchange hedging by the National Pension Service [1] Group 2 - Monex Europe suggests that if the Federal Reserve implements faster and larger rate cuts, the USD/CAD exchange rate may decline in the medium term, driven by risk sentiment and U.S. data in the short term [2] - The Swiss National Bank is taking a cautious approach to negative interest rates, with expectations of a strong Swiss franc supported by progress in U.S.-Swiss trade negotiations [2] - Julius Baer indicates that the Bank of Japan's gradual exit from ETF and REIT holdings will have minimal long-term impact on the stock market due to the small proportion of holdings [2] Group 3 - Historical data shows that emerging market bonds have averaged returns of 6%-8% following Federal Reserve rate cuts, with a current overweight in emerging market assets by JPMorgan Asset Management [3] - The actions of the Federal Reserve have reinforced expectations of a weaker dollar and lower interest rates, benefiting both emerging market equities and bonds [3] - There is a clear demand for non-dollar assets, with investors showing unprecedented interest in emerging market local currency bonds since 2012, indicating a need for diversified allocations [3]