压制中国免税行业崛起主要因素被扭转 ，布局中国免税拐点 复盘2020 年后免税行业的走势，实际上免税走弱是受到了多重因素的影响 。一是疫情期间日韩等国采 取了高额返佣的模式导致竞争压力增加 ，而国内免税商同样加大了折扣力度导致利润下降 。二是国内 居民家庭收入预期出现了阶段性的波动 ，暂时影响了消费意愿 ，导致居民家庭" 有钱不敢花 " 。三是 供给的稀缺 ，过去中国免税店以海南离岛免税和口岸免税为主 ， 离岛免税场景过去存在 " 离岛不离境 " 的限制 ，服务的游客数量较少 ，而口岸免税店受限于经营面积和有限的购物时间缺乏足够的增长潜 力 。2024年以来，政策支持力度加码，居民收入预期改善叠加外部竞争压力缓解， 中国免税行业底部 拐点已确立 。 高端零售消费力仍存 ，信心修复后旅游零售率先复苏 整体来看，2023年以来政策对消费的刺激力度持续加大，以旧换新等短端政策带动消费意愿稳步复 苏，"924 "后消费预期指数也呈现逐步上升趋势 ，意味着长端消费信心改善 。分结构来看，"924 "后国 内一线城市房价开始止跌，2025年四季度 PPI 同比降幅逐渐收窄 ，对收入预期更为敏感的中高收入家 庭或将受益于宏 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The overall market is experiencing narrow fluctuations with accelerated capital rotation as the year-end approaches, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 0.17% and the Hang Seng Tech Index increasing by 0.19% [2][3] - Market sentiment is cautious, with a balance between advancing and declining stocks, and a total market turnover of HKD 92.5 billion, with short selling accounting for approximately 15.83% of total trading [2][3] - Southbound capital saw a net outflow of about HKD 1.2 billion on December 24, with notable net purchases in stocks like SMIC and Agricultural Bank of China, while major sell-offs occurred in China Mobile and Tencent [2][3] Group 2: Sector Performance - Semiconductor stocks emerged as the day's highlight, benefiting from sustained global AI computing demand and deepening domestic substitution logic, leading to significant gains among leading semiconductor companies [3] - The performance of large tech stocks showed divergence, lacking a unified direction, while the cyclical and energy sectors exhibited clear internal discrepancies, with power stocks performing strongly due to winter electricity demand expectations [3] - The lithium battery supply chain continued to show weakness, while the non-ferrous metals sector saw gains due to a rebound in commodity prices and supply constraints, particularly in aluminum and copper mining companies [3] Group 3: Industry Insights on Hainan Free Trade Port - The Hainan Free Trade Port has entered a new phase of operation with a focus on "one line open, one line controlled, and free flow within the island," significantly reducing trade barriers with foreign countries [7][8] - The range of "zero tariff" goods has expanded from 1,900 to approximately 6,600 tax items, benefiting various enterprises and allowing for free circulation of imported goods among eligible entities [8] - The implementation of new duty-free shopping policies has led to a surge in duty-free sales, with significant increases in shopping amounts and visitor numbers since the policy's introduction [8][9] Group 4: Future Opportunities in Duty-Free Market - The second growth curve for duty-free sales is expected to come from city duty-free stores, with new policies allowing travelers to purchase without limits, enhancing consumer shopping willingness [10] - The Hainan Free Trade Port's closure is anticipated to significantly expand the types of duty-free imported goods, releasing local consumption potential [10] - The influx of inbound tourists is seen as a new growth opportunity for the duty-free market, with higher spending per capita compared to domestic tourists [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the duty-free industry [4][7]. Core Insights - The duty-free industry in China is entering a new cycle, driven by policy support and a recovery in consumer confidence, particularly in Hainan's duty-free sales, which saw a significant increase in recent months [1][2][6]. Summary by Sections Hainan Duty-Free and Market Value Fluctuations - Hainan's duty-free sales experienced a CAGR of 39% from 2011 to 2019, peaking at 49.5 billion in 2021, but faced a decline of 37% from this peak by 2024 due to various factors [1][12][13]. Policy Changes - Recent policy adjustments have expanded both offshore and onshore duty-free shopping, allowing for more flexible purchasing options and an increase in product categories, which is expected to stimulate demand [2][23][29]. Demand Side Analysis - The stabilization of asset prices is leading to a wealth effect that is positively impacting high-end consumption, with luxury brands like LVMH and Hermès showing signs of recovery in the Chinese market [2][31][32]. Supply Side Developments - Leading companies in the industry are strengthening their operational capabilities during this downturn, with China Duty Free Group stabilizing its revenue and gross margin while expanding its product offerings [3][34]. Channel Developments - China Duty Free Group holds a 78% market share across all channels, with upcoming contract renewals for key airport duty-free operations that could reshape the competitive landscape [3][36][38].