花旗进一步指出，随着特朗普政府逐步为2025年11月中期选举布局，并努力应对国内高利率导致的经济 压力，其政策焦点可能将更多转向压低整体商品价格。报告指出，实现上述目标最可能的路径包括推动 结束俄乌战争;倘若无法达成，华府则可能对OPEC+施加更大外交压力，要求其进一步增产以压低国际 油价。 花旗集团最新发布的研究报告指出，沙特阿拉伯及OPEC+自今年4月以来分阶段解除石油产量限制，市 场供应持续增加，这一趋势与美国总统特朗普长期推动降低能源价格的政策方向一致。在此背景下，花 旗预期全球原油市场在未来数季将维持疲软态势，布兰特原油价格在明年、至少至美国中期选举前，或 将徘徊在每桶60美元左右的水平。 报告分析，高于每桶60美元的价格区间极可能促使OPEC+继续增产，其中沙特阿拉伯料将继续扮演关 键领导角色，以稳定市场供需并避免油价再次大幅攀升。 花旗重申其长期观点认为，布兰特原油价格不太可能持续低于60美元，并指出这一价位亦常被市场视作 买入机会。理由包括：较低油价为美国进一步实施制裁、补充战略石油储备以及促使OPEC+调整产量 提供了更大政策空间，同时从中期来看，过低油价亦不符合美国维持全球能源影响力的战略 ...

Group 1 - The spread between Brent crude oil and Dubai crude oil has reached its highest level since September 2023 [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant rise in international oil prices due to escalating tensions in the Middle East, particularly the conflict between Israel and Iran, which has led to fears of supply disruptions [1][3][6] - On June 13, oil prices surged over 10% in a single day, with New York crude oil reaching a peak of $77.62 per barrel and Brent crude hitting $78.5, marking the largest intraday increase since the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in February 2022 [1][3] - Analysts from Goldman Sachs and Wells Fargo suggest that the current spike in oil prices is driven more by panic rather than actual supply-demand changes, predicting that prices will likely fall back below $60 per barrel later this year and potentially drop to $56 or lower early next year [3][4] Group 2 - Concerns are particularly focused on the Strait of Hormuz, which is crucial for global oil supply, accounting for approximately 20% to 25% of oil and one-third of liquefied natural gas production [4][6] - The potential for Iran to block the Strait of Hormuz has raised alarms, as the narrow waterway is easily controlled by Iran, and any disruption could lead to a significant change in global oil supply dynamics [6][8] - Shipping companies are already reacting to the heightened risks, with the largest publicly listed tanker company refusing to sign new contracts for vessels passing through the Strait, indicating a shift towards more cautious maritime operations in the region [6][8]

Group 1 - Citigroup has lowered its Brent crude oil price forecast for the next three months from $60 per barrel to $55 per barrel [1] - The potential for a US-Iran agreement and the easing of sanctions could lead to Brent crude oil prices dropping to $50 per barrel [1]