Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government's decision to delay the import biofuel subsidy reduction plan from 2026 to potentially 2027 or 2028 has caused significant market reactions, particularly affecting soybean farmers and the biofuel industry [1][3][34] Policy Reversal Impact - The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) initially planned to halve the Renewable Identification Number (RIN) credits for imported biofuels starting January 2026, which would have reduced the competitive advantage of imported waste cooking oil, pushing refineries to buy more domestic soybean and canola oil [5][9] - The sudden policy change is primarily driven by concerns over rising fuel prices, as the biofuel industry heavily relies on imported raw materials [7][9] - The postponement of the subsidy reduction has led to a 2% drop in Chicago soybean oil futures, reflecting immediate market reactions [13][16] Market Reactions - The delay in policy implementation is expected to result in a reassessment of planting strategies among soybean farmers, as the attractiveness of soybeans compared to corn and cotton diminishes without policy support [15][22] - The U.S. biodiesel industry will continue to depend on imported waste oils and animal fats, easing competitive pressures on suppliers from the EU and Southeast Asia [16][22] Long-term Trends - The EPA's long-term goal remains to reduce import dependency and enhance domestic biofuel competitiveness, aligning with the "America First" energy policy [23][28] - Future biodiesel blending quotas are likely to increase, indicating a growing demand for biofuels despite the current policy delay [26][31] - The existing biodiesel production capacity significantly exceeds the proposed quotas, suggesting that large refineries may control output to stabilize RIN prices [31][33] Strategic Considerations - Investors should recognize that policy variables are critical in the oilseed market, often more influential than weather or inventory levels [28][30] - The interplay between energy transition, inflation pressures, and political maneuvering will continue to shape the market landscape for U.S. soybean farmers and related industries [34][36]

Group 1 - Trump's recent threats against China regarding soybean purchases highlight his strategy of using strong rhetoric to pressure China into concessions [1][5] - The soybean dispute reflects China's increasing assertiveness in supply chain security, as it is not the only major soybean importer, and alternatives exist in the market [3] - The U.S. agricultural sector, particularly soybean farmers, heavily relies on the Chinese market, and losing this channel could lead to significant sales difficulties [3] Group 2 - Trump's intention appears to be to force China to resume soybean purchases, as previous attempts to subsidize farmers and find alternative buyers have not been successful [5] - The actual trade dynamics in edible oils show that the U.S. imports a significant amount of waste cooking oil from China, which is crucial for the U.S. biofuel industry [7] - The volume of waste cooking oil imported from China has increased from less than 90,000 tons in 2020 to 1.36 million tons in 2023, indicating China's importance in this sector [7] Group 3 - Overall, Trump's threats seem more like a political maneuver rather than a genuine diplomatic strategy, potentially causing more issues for the U.S. rather than achieving desired outcomes [9] - China is expected to continue advancing its strategic goals regardless of U.S. threats, indicating a stable approach to its trade policies [9]

#数据 根据美国农业部报告，美国是中国废食用油（UCO）的最大出口市场，2024年进口为127万吨，较2023年增长约52%，约占中国UCO出口总量的43%。去年中国对美UCO出口额为12亿美元左右，相比之下，美国对华出口大豆126亿美元。此外，美国环境保护署提议未来两年增加生物燃料量，意味着美国一旦终止与中国UCO贸易，仍将需从其他国家采购UCO。外汇交易员 (@myfxtrader):#数据 根据中国海关数据，中国今年前8个月对美国出口相关食用油及产品数量有限，金额不足40万美元。另据Volza海关数据，2024年6月至2025年5月，中国对美国出口仅18批次精炼菜籽油，主要用于食品加工企业试单，总金额不足百万美元。 https://t.co/6mjEOYDv04 ...

Group 1 - The Osaka-Kansai Expo is showcasing numerous exhibitions and activities related to "food," reflecting on the impact of the 1970 Osaka Expo, which marked a turning point in Japan's dining culture and is referred to as the "year of eating out" [1] - The introduction of fast food culture in Japan, including fried chicken, French fries, and donuts, was significantly influenced by the 1970 Expo, leading to a dramatic increase in the consumption of fried foods [1] - The per capita annual supply of cooking oil in Japan has doubled from 6.8 kg in 1970 to 13.9 kg in 2019, with approximately 500,000 tons of waste cooking oil generated annually [1] Group 2 - The president of Hamada Chemical, Okano Yoshichi, stated that "oil is a mirror of society," highlighting the shift in waste oil sources due to changing consumer habits, such as the increase in waste oil from supermarket prepared foods and the decrease from supermarkets when convenience stores began frying food on-site [2] - Okano noted that the rising prices of food have led to an increase in the proportion of dark oil used, as consumers attempt to save costs by maximizing oil usage [2] - Okano's childhood experiences in the polluted Hanshin industrial area have shaped his perspective on ecological cycles, emphasizing the hard work behind seemingly beautiful environmental efforts [2]