[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 基础化工 2025 年 08 月 26 日 基础化工 优于大市（维持） 证券分析师 王华炳 资格编号：S0120524100001 邮箱：wanghb3＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 -9% 0% 9% 17% 26% 34% 43% 51% 2024-08 2024-12 2025-04 2025-08 基础化工 沪深300 相关研究 1.《东方铁塔（002545.SZ）：从东 方铁塔到东方资源》，2025.8.21 2.《反内卷，化工慢牛的宏大叙事》， 2025.8.20 3.《民航局发布碳足迹核算标准， SAF 、 UCO 价格继续上升》， 2025.8.18 4.《关注新疆板块投资机遇》， 2025.8.11 5.《供应缩量&外需强劲，甲酸价格 快速上行》，2025.8.7 金九银十！SAF、UCO 持续上涨，关 注有机硅协同反弹机会 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 核心观点： 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 本周基础化工板块表现差于大盘。根据 Wind，本周（8/15-8/22）上证综指涨 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the basic chemical industry [2]. Core Viewpoints - The basic chemical sector has outperformed the market, with a year-to-date increase of 19.1%, surpassing the Shanghai Composite Index by 8.8 percentage points [6][17]. - New carbon footprint accounting standards for aviation fuel are expected to enhance the market's operational standards and promote the growth of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) [29][30]. - SAF and Used Cooking Oil (UCO) prices are on the rise, indicating a potential phase of simultaneous volume and price increases [30]. Summary by Sections 1. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the basic chemical sector is entering a new long-term growth cycle, driven by policy support and improving supply-demand dynamics [14]. - Key investment themes include focusing on core assets, supply constraints, and sectors with upward demand certainty [15][16]. 2. Overall Performance of the Chemical Sector - The basic chemical industry index increased by 2.5% during the week of August 8-15, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.8 percentage points [17]. - Year-to-date, the basic chemical industry index has risen by 19.1%, indicating strong performance relative to broader market indices [17]. 3. Individual Stock Performance in the Chemical Sector - Among 424 stocks in the basic chemical sector, 235 stocks rose while 181 fell during the week [24]. - The top-performing stocks included Yangfan New Materials (+23.0%) and Kaimete Gas (+22.5%) [25]. 4. Key News and Company Announcements - The report discusses the release of new carbon footprint accounting standards for aviation fuel, which will take effect on September 1, 2025 [28]. - Several companies reported their financial results, with notable increases in revenue and profit for some, such as Longqing Co. and Chuanjin No. [31][34]. 5. Product Price and Price Spread Analysis - The China Chemical Product Price Index (CCPI) recorded a decrease of 0.7% week-on-week, indicating a slight decline in chemical product prices [36].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [11]. Core Insights - In the first half of 2025, China's total exports of HVO and SAF reached 338,400 tons, a year-on-year increase of 8.06%, with domestic SAF export channels successfully opened [2][6]. - Biodiesel exports fell to 381,000 tons, a decrease of 42.4% year-on-year, primarily due to anti-dumping tariffs [7][17]. - UCO exports totaled 1,262,000 tons, down 10.5% year-on-year, with Singapore replacing the U.S. as the largest export destination [8][31]. - The report suggests monitoring overseas policies and demand changes, anticipating more supportive domestic policies to be implemented [9][43]. Summary by Sections SAF & HVO - In H1 2025, China's SAF export channels were successfully opened, with a total export volume of 338,400 tons, marking an 8.06% increase year-on-year. Jiangsu Province exported 14,900 tons of SAF to Belgium and Spain in June, likely from the Jiaao Environmental Lianyungang factory [6][16]. - Domestic SAF exports require approval from four government departments, and Jiaao Environmental received a license for 372,400 tons of bio-jet fuel, indicating a positive trend for future SAF exports [6][16]. Biodiesel - Biodiesel exports in H1 2025 were 381,000 tons, down 42.4% year-on-year, mainly due to anti-dumping tariffs imposed by the EU [7][17]. - Major export partners included Malaysia (141,000 tons), Singapore (98,700 tons), and the Netherlands (70,000 tons), with significant increases in exports to Malaysia and Singapore, likely for blending with marine fuel [7][22]. - The average export price for biodiesel was $1,103 per ton, a slight increase of 2.0% year-on-year, while total export value dropped by 40.6% to $3.02 billion [17]. UCO - UCO exports in H1 2025 were 1,262,000 tons, a decrease of 10.5% year-on-year, attributed to increased domestic SAF production and the cancellation of export tax rebates [8][29]. - The average export price for UCO was $1,048 per ton, up 17.9% year-on-year, driven by the EU's mandatory blending policy for SAF [8][29]. - Singapore became the largest export destination for UCO, with exports to the U.S. declining significantly due to high tariffs [31][35]. Market Outlook - The report emphasizes the need to track overseas policy changes and anticipates more domestic supportive policies to be implemented [9][43]. - The U.S. market faces significant uncertainty due to fluctuating tariff policies, while the EU's blending ratio requirements for SAF are expected to boost China's SAF industry [43]. - In Singapore, the demand for clean alternative fuels is projected to increase due to new carbon quota regulations for the shipping industry [43]. Investment Recommendations - The industry is viewed positively due to its reliance on waste oils as raw materials, with several companies producing qualified SAF and obtaining airworthiness certification. The report recommends focusing on raw material suppliers and processing companies like Zhuoyue New Energy [9][47].

Group 1: Defu Technology - Defu Technology has acquired Luxembourg Copper Foil, positioning itself among the global leaders in high-end IT copper foil production [1] - Luxembourg Copper Foil, established in 1960, is the only non-Japanese high-end IT copper foil manufacturer globally, with an annual capacity of 16,800 tons [1] - Defu Technology's total production capacity for electrolytic copper foil has increased to 191,000 tons per year, making it the largest globally [1] - The company plans to invest 183 million yuan in R&D in 2024, aiming to deepen its technology strategy [1] Group 2: Zhongwang Software - Zhongwang Software emphasizes the importance of intellectual property compliance in its internationalization process [2] - The company is preparing for legal proceedings while maintaining confidence in its product sales during the lawsuit period [2] - Zhongwang Software has strengthened its internal controls and intellectual property management to avoid infringement [2] Group 3: Weili Medical - Weili Medical reported that its overseas production costs are slightly higher than domestic costs, but overall gross margins are expected to remain stable [3] - The company has seen significant growth in overseas sales of its urology products, with gross margins exceeding 70% [3] - Weili Medical is expanding its production capacity in Indonesia and Mexico to mitigate geopolitical risks [3] Group 4: Shanguo Environmental - Shanguo Environmental's performance improved significantly in the first half of the year due to rising UCO prices and increased capacity utilization [4] - The company plans to expand its kitchen waste project capacity to 8,000-10,000 tons per day [4] - Shanguo Environmental aims to enhance project management and absorb quality projects to consolidate its capacity advantage [4] Group 5: Luxi Chemical - Luxi Chemical is maintaining stable operations while enhancing summer safety controls and adjusting to market changes [5] - The company has implemented its dividend plan for 2024 and will adhere to regulatory requirements for future dividend determinations [5] - Luxi Chemical is closely monitoring market price fluctuations of chemical products to achieve a balance between production and sales [5]

Group 1: Performance Improvement - The company's performance improved significantly in the first half of the year due to multiple factors, including a rise in UCO prices driven by new EU and UK policies, which are expected to bring an incremental demand of approximately 180,000 tons of UCO [2] - The company's refined management practices led to a continuous increase in the capacity utilization rate of kitchen waste projects, resulting in a growth in oil yield [2] - The optimization of production processes contributed to a reduction in cash costs per ton by 13.04% year-on-year [2] Group 2: Future Price Outlook - The current UCO price has reached approximately 8,000 RMB/ton, a two-year high, with strong support expected for future prices due to the implementation of bio-jet fuel blending policies and stable domestic waste oil production [3] Group 3: Strategic Development Plans - The company plans to focus on expanding kitchen waste project capacity and acquiring high-quality projects to enhance profitability, while also considering projects that synergize with its main business [3] - Future capacity expansion aims to increase kitchen waste processing capacity to 8,000-10,000 tons/day, supported by a robust project identification mechanism and collaboration with local governments and industry associations [4] Group 4: Cost Reduction Measures - The company will implement various measures to further reduce production costs, including improving collection efficiency, optimizing wastewater treatment processes, and enhancing detailed management practices [3] Group 5: Core Competitiveness - The company has established a "three-in-one" model to strengthen its competitive edge, which includes a robust network for collection and processing, a comprehensive digital platform for smart control, and a complete technical advantage for cost reduction and efficiency improvement [3] Group 6: Current Order Situation - The company currently has a substantial number of inquiries from domestic and international biofuel leaders, with a strong order backlog primarily from domestic clients, and some orders resuming from the U.S. market after previous tariff issues [3] Group 7: Accounts Receivable Management - The company emphasizes the collection of accounts receivable, achieving a nearly 100% rolling collection rate, with a projected 8.1% increase in kitchen waste processing volume in 2024, despite a year-on-year decrease in accounts receivable [3] Group 8: Dividend Policy - The company currently has negative retained earnings and does not have the conditions for cash dividends, but plans to consider dividends once retained earnings turn positive [4] Group 9: Biofuel Demand Outlook - The bio-jet fuel sector is expected to see significant growth, with pilot programs expanding and government support for green fuel production, indicating a promising future for domestic biofuel demand [4] Group 10: Competitive Strategy - The company will maintain its competitive advantage by enhancing project management, increasing capacity utilization, and absorbing high-quality projects within the industry [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is upgraded to "Buy" with a target price indicating a potential return of over 20% within the next six months [7][19]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve significant growth in its financial performance, with a forecasted net profit of 0.4-0.45 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing an increase of 214.28%-228.56% year-on-year [1][2]. - The increase in demand for Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) is driving up the price of Used Cooking Oil (UCO), which is a key raw material for the company [3][4]. - The company has a strong order book, with many well-known domestic and international biofuel companies inquiring about orders, indicating robust market demand [4]. Financial Performance - For Q1 2025, the company reported a net profit of 0.28 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 222.23%. The projected net profit for Q2 2025 is estimated to be between 0.12-0.17 billion yuan, marking a turnaround from a loss of 0.44 billion yuan in the same period last year [2]. - The company's revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 14.11 billion yuan, 16.51 billion yuan, and 18.88 billion yuan, respectively, with a year-on-year growth of -2.62%, 17%, and 14.36% [4][6]. - The forecasted net profit for 2025 is 1.00 billion yuan, with significant growth rates of 668.27%, 57.94%, and 39.45% for the following years [4][6]. Market Dynamics - The demand for SAF is expected to increase significantly due to new regulations in the EU and UK, which will require a 2% blending of SAF starting January 2025, potentially leading to an additional demand of approximately 1.8 million tons of UCO [3]. - The Chinese government is actively supporting the development of biofuels, which is expected to further boost domestic SAF demand during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [3][4].

Core Insights - The report highlights the recent performance of various industries, with notable growth in the oil and petrochemical sector, while the beauty care and media sectors experienced significant declines [2][3][4] - The macroeconomic environment is influenced by the recent U.S.-China dialogue, which aims to enhance cooperation and stabilize trade relations [6][8] - The real estate market shows signs of recovery, particularly in Guangzhou, where restrictions have been lifted to stimulate housing demand [22][24] Industry Analysis Real Estate and Construction - New housing and second-hand housing transaction areas have increased month-on-month, with Guangzhou fully lifting purchase and sale restrictions [22][23] - The government is expected to maintain a supportive stance towards the real estate market, with more positive fiscal and monetary policies anticipated [22][24] Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery - The CPI has been declining for four consecutive months, impacting pork prices, which are expected to stabilize despite short-term pressures [28][29] - The report suggests that policies will be implemented to control pork supply and support price increases, which may affect the overall CPI [29][30] Food and Beverage - The food and beverage sector has seen a decline, with a focus on new product launches such as whiskey and the growth potential of konjac products [37][38] - The konjac segment is identified as a rapidly growing niche within the snack food market, driven by health trends [38][39] Pharmaceuticals - SYS6010 is highlighted as a promising broad-spectrum anti-tumor drug, with early clinical data showing positive results for NSCLC treatment [41][42] - The drug is in the registration phase for NSCLC in China and has received multiple designations from regulatory bodies, indicating its potential in the market [42][43] Communication and Technology - The report discusses advancements in AI and cloud computing, with significant investments from companies like Oracle and ByteDance, indicating a robust growth trajectory for the AIDC industry [46][47][49] - The domestic AI industry is expected to benefit from increased demand and technological advancements, with several companies positioned to capitalize on these trends [49]

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the rising prices of HVO and SAF in Europe due to strong seasonal demand, which is expected to drive up UCO prices in China as well [1][2]. Group 1: HVO/SAF Price Trends - As of June 11, 2025, the prices for HVO and SAF in Europe are $2,002 and $1,949 per ton, reflecting increases of 13.97% and 11.60% respectively from their lowest points in Q2 2025 [1][2]. - The increase in SAF demand is attributed to the strong seasonal demand ahead of the summer flight season in Europe, with high-quality HVO experiencing a larger price increase [1][2]. Group 2: UCO Price Dynamics - In China, as of June 12, 2025, the prices for gutter oil and waste oil in East China are 6,250 and 6,650 RMB per ton, showing increases of 3.31% and 2.31% respectively from their lowest points in Q2 2025 [2]. - The rising demand for HVO and SAF overseas has led to increased inquiries for UCO in Chinese ports, resulting in a price increase for UCO [2]. Group 3: EU SAF Policy and Cost Implications - The EU is gradually implementing a 2% SAF blending policy, with measures such as an environmental surcharge of 6-20 euros being introduced by some airlines to cover the costs associated with SAF blending [3]. - Despite these measures, the compliance costs for using SAF in Europe remain high, with an estimated total cost of $12 billion for purchasing 1 million tons of SAF by 2025, potentially doubling the procurement costs for airlines [3]. Group 4: Future Demand for UCO - The demand for SAF is expected to grow steadily, which will likely increase the demand for UCO as EU end-user demand recovers and SAF production facilities continue to actively procure raw materials [4]. - The price of UCO is influenced by the procurement levels of HVO and SAF plants, with a notable increase in UCO demand observed since 2025 due to its strong carbon reduction attributes [5].

Group 1: Performance Growth - The significant growth in 2024 and Q1 2025 performance is attributed to refined management practices that increased oil yield and effectively reduced production costs. The processing volume of kitchen waste increased by 8.1% year-on-year, and oil yield rose by 7.1% in 2024 [2] - The unit production cash cost decreased by 7.1% year-on-year in 2024, while the unit collection cash cost dropped by 2.0%. In Q1 2025, the unit production cash cost further declined by 11.7% year-on-year and 10% quarter-on-quarter [2] - The UCO (Used Cooking Oil) price saw a significant increase due to additional demand, reflecting a strong market condition [2] Group 2: UCO Market Dynamics - The company primarily focuses on domestic sales of UCO, with some exports to Europe and Asia-Pacific. The cancellation of export tax rebates has led to a slight increase in export prices, but the overall impact on the company is minimal [2] - The demand for UCO has remained stable since the beginning of the year, with an estimated additional demand of approximately 1.8 million tons due to the EU and UK’s mandatory blending requirements starting in 2025 [3] Group 3: Operational Efficiency - The capacity utilization rate for kitchen waste projects reached 79.1% in 2024, an increase of 6.7% year-on-year. The company aims to further enhance collection efficiency and expects continued improvement in capacity utilization in 2025 [3] - The company’s internal oil extraction rate was approximately 4.5% in 2024, with plans to optimize processes to increase this rate further [3] Group 4: Future Development and Cost Management - The company plans to expand kitchen waste project capacity to 8,000-10,000 tons per day, focusing on identifying quality projects and enhancing operational efficiency [4] - Cost control measures will continue, including improving collection rates and optimizing project processes to reduce material and energy consumption [4] Group 5: Competitive Advantages - The company has established a "three-in-one" model to strengthen its competitive edge, including a strong regional advantage through its licensing model and a comprehensive collection network [4] - The digital platform for full-process intelligent control has been developed, allowing for precise tracking and management of resources from collection to product delivery [4] Group 6: Financial Outlook - The company reported an asset impairment loss of approximately 26 million in 2024, but the main business does not face significant impairment risks [4] - The company has not distributed dividends in recent years due to negative retained earnings but plans to consider dividends once profits turn positive [4]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended (Maintain)" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the importance of traditional environmental protection sectors with stable operational capabilities, which are expected to see a revaluation due to their relatively high profit certainty. Additionally, new industries are emerging, creating new environmental governance demands, such as semiconductor waste gas treatment, leading to the birth of several growth-oriented companies. The report also highlights the easing of accounts receivable pressure in the environmental sector due to a comprehensive debt policy package approved by the National People's Congress in November 2024 [3][28]. Summary by Sections Important Data Tracking - From February 24 to February 28, the national carbon market saw a trading volume of 426,200 tons, an increase of 70.99% compared to the previous period. The closing price for carbon emission allowances was 89.56 yuan/ton, down 0.21% day-on-day and 0.38% compared to the previous period [3][7]. Market Performance - During the period from February 24 to February 28, the A-share environmental index decreased by 0.49%, while the H-share environmental index increased by 0.34%. The overall market performance saw the Shanghai Composite Index drop by 1.72%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 3.46%, and the ChiNext Index by 4.87% [18][19]. Industry News - Hubei Province issued the "2025 Provincial Ecological Environment Protection Work Points," aiming to achieve high water quality in major rivers and lakes, with a target of 91.7% for good water quality in surface water monitoring sections. The document also sets goals for air quality and groundwater quality, emphasizing the need to meet national assessment standards [23][24]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong operational capabilities and cash flow pressures alleviated by debt relief measures. It suggests investing in established companies with significant potential during their second entrepreneurial phase and selecting emerging environmental companies that benefit from high growth prospects. Specific recommendations include Hongcheng Environment, Hanlan Environment, and Weiming Environmental, with a suggestion to pay attention to Yongxing Co., Ltd. [3][28][29].