2026 年 01 月 11 日 环保及公用事业 持续关注绿色燃料，重视废油脂稀缺性 摘要 专题研究： 2025 年年内 HVO&SAF 涨幅显著。复盘 2025 年生物柴油价格走势，二 代&三代生物柴油（HVO 和 SAF）年内涨幅明显，HVO 年内最高涨至 2853.38 美元/吨，SAF 最高涨至 2900.95 美元/吨，较最低点涨幅分 别达 69.2%、69.1%，涨幅及趋势具有一致性。此轮价格走高主要受到 下游需求释放影响：（1）SAF 方面，2025 年为欧盟 ReFuelEU 航空法 规（RFEUA）明确要求航空燃料供应商向飞机运营商提供的所有燃料 中添加一定比例政策实施的第一年，法规要求 2025/2030/2050 年 SAF 含量必须达到 2%、 6%、70%，2025 年带来约 140 万吨需求增量，下 半年集中履约带动 SAF 需求大幅提升推高价格；（2）HVO 方面则主要 由于欧洲、新加坡等地生物船燃需求提升。 往后看，（1）生物柴油方面：德国内阁于 12 月 11 日批准了 RED III 转化为国家法律的立法，并从 2026 年起废除对先进生物燃料的双倍 积分政策，标志着 20 ...

2026 年 01 月 11 日 基础化工 硫磺价格在博弈中震荡前行，绿色能源 开年内外利好共振 事件：①据百川盈孚，截至 1 月 9 日，镇江港硫磺价格报 4190 元/吨，周环比+4.75%。②据新华社，国务院国资委 1 月 8 日发 布消息，经报国务院批准，中国石油化工集团有限公司与中国航 空油料集团有限公司实施重组。 短期保供难改长期偏紧态势，硫磺价格在博弈中震荡前行 据中国农资传媒公众号，25 年 12 月以来，我国多方联动，锚定 硫磺保供稳价预期：①12 月 11 日，国家发改委牵头召开专题会 议，明确 26 年 8 月前我国磷肥原则上暂缓出口；②12 月 12 日， 中国硫酸工业协会发布行业倡议，倡导硫磺、硫酸等企业春耕前 满负荷生产，并将检修计划优先避让春耕关键期；③12 月 18 日， 中国硫酸工业协会与中国磷复肥工业协会再度联合召开专题会 议，鼓励冶炼酸企业与磷肥企业签订长期购销协议，并部署磷石 膏制酸技术研发，为长期硫资源保障布局。系列政策博弈下，短 期供需矛盾或可一定程度缓解，但我们认为硫磺产量增长受上游 炼化规模制约，保供政策难以从根本上扭转国内资源偏紧的格局。 需求侧我国磷酸铁锂以 ...

证券日报网讯 1月9日，维尔利在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，可持续航空燃料（SAF）是以农林 废弃物、餐饮废油、生物质等多元原料为基础，经预处理、转化合成、精炼提质等核心工序生产出符合 航空燃油标准的燃料，再供应至机场，最终应用于民航客机以降低航空业碳排放的清洁能源产业。公司 深耕有机废弃物资源化领域，业务范围包括垃圾渗滤液、餐厨厨余垃圾处理、沼气及生物天然气、生物 燃油、VOCs油气回收等。公司通过前期餐厨垃圾处理业务积累了丰富的项目资源。公司的UCO业务主 要分为两大板块：一是自有及自营餐厨垃圾项目产出的油源，目前年产约2万吨废弃油脂；二是通过投 资合作模式布局加工厂，未来计划形成约28万吨废弃油脂的产能规模，目标在2026年实现30万吨的产 能。公司将采用上述策略锁定原料端资源，建立稳定的原料供应体系，再通过专业化工艺把废油脂加工 成符合可持续航空燃料（SAF）生产商指标的UCO，供应给SAF工厂，保障供应稳定和产品品质，积极 推进可持续航空燃料业务发展。 （文章来源：证券日报） ...

每经AI快讯，有投资者在投资者互动平台提问：请问贵司做SAF可持续航空燃料上游原材料UCO吗？贵 司同时还做SAF生物燃油预处理业务吗？ 维尔利（300190.SZ）1月9日在投资者互动平台表示，投资者您好，可持续航空燃料（SAF）是以农林 废弃物、餐饮废油、生物质等多元原料为基础，经预处理、转化合成、精炼提质等核心工序生产出符合 航空燃油标准的燃料，再供应至机场，最终应用于民航客机以降低航空业碳排放的清洁能源产业。 公 司深耕有机废弃物资源化领域，业务范围包括垃圾渗滤液、餐厨厨余垃圾处理、沼气及生物天然气、生 物燃油、VOCs油气回收等。公司通过前期餐厨垃圾处理业务积累了丰富的项目资源。公司的 UCO 业 务主要分为两大板块：一是自有及自营餐厨垃圾项目产出的油源，目前年产约 2 万吨废弃油脂；二是通 过投资合作模式布局加工厂，未来计划形成约 28 万吨废弃油脂的产能规模，目标在2026年实现30万吨 的产能。 公司将采用上述策略锁定原料端资源，建立稳定的原料供应体系，再通过专业化工艺把废油 脂加工成符合可持续航空燃料（SAF）生产商指标的UCO，供应给SAF工厂，保障供应稳定和产品品 质，积极推进可持续航空 ...

证券研究报告 晨会 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 12 月 30 日 投资要点： 资料来源：聚源，华源证券研究所，截至2025年12月30日 华源晨会精粹 20251230 固定收益 3-10Y 二永债配置价值凸显——资本补充工具月报：二永债一级发行方 面，11 月供给环比及同比上升。2025 年 1-11 月，银行二永债净融资主要来自国有 大行。二永债二级市场方面，二级资本债收益率和信用利差（减国债，下同）除 AA+ 品种以外普遍震荡下行，永续债收益率下行，但利差有所上升，中长期券种表现较 好。11 月，普信债与二永债走出分化行情，公募销售新规担忧仍在，二永债收益率 下行仍显犹豫。永续债-二级资本债品种利差整体偏低。保险次级债 11 月净融资规 模同比增加，券商次级债 11 月净融资规模同比有所下降。二级市场方面，除 10 年 期外，其他剩余期限券商次级债和保险资本补充债收益率和信用利差普遍有所下行。 二永债方面，建议关注利差分位数仍处高位 AA+级及以上 3-10Y 券种，可重点关注 5YAAA-永续债。保险、券商次级债方面，各评级 3-10Y 券商次级债和保险资本补 充债处于历史分位较高水平， ...

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of in-depth research and insights for informed investment decisions in the equity analysis sector, particularly in Latin America [1] Group 1 - The company has over 5 years of experience in equity analysis focused on Latin America [1] - The research provided aims to assist clients in making informed investment decisions [1]

2025 年 12 月 15 日 防线人行业电 相关研究 券研究培 证券分析师 莫龙庭 A0230523080005 molt@swsresearch.com 研究支持 莫龙庭 A0230523080005 molt@swsresearch.com 联系人 草龙庭 A0230523080005 molt@swsresearch.com 国 RED III 落地, 看好 HVC UCO 发展 本期投资后了 申万宏源研究微信服务号 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 环保 事件: 12 月 11 日，德国内阁正式通过了基于欧盟《可再生能源指令》 (RED III) 转化 ○ 为本国法律的立法（以下简称法案），有望提振 HVO 及 UCO 需求。 欧盟 RED III 于 2023 年生效．要求成员国 2025 年转为本国法律，实际转换滞后。2023 ● 年９月，欧洲议会正式投票通过了 RED III，同时要求欧盟成员国须在 2025 年 5 月 21 日 前，将 REDIII 指令转化为本国的国内法律并开始实施。但由于牵涉面广、目标难度大， 多个欧盟成员国在转置过程中普遍存在滞后。 德国立法上调汽柴油温室 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating a positive outlook for the sector [4]. Core Insights - The German government has officially passed legislation to implement the EU's Renewable Energy Directive (RED III), which is expected to boost the demand for HVO (Hydrotreated Vegetable Oil) and UCO (Used Cooking Oil) [4]. - The RED III directive, effective from 2023, mandates EU member states to transpose it into national law by May 21, 2025, with Germany setting a higher greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction target of 19% for gasoline and diesel by 2030, compared to the EU's unified target of 14.5% [4][5]. - The cancellation of double counting for advanced biofuels is expected to convert "accounting quotas" into "physical volumes," significantly increasing the demand for HVO and UCO [4]. - The removal of POME (Palm Oil Mill Effluent) from compliance eligibility is set to take effect in 2027, although its impact is considered limited due to the declining share of palm oil in EU biodiesel feedstocks [4]. - The report suggests a positive outlook for biodiesel development across road transport, shipping, and aviation, with specific companies recommended for investment: Shandong Hi-Speed Energy, Hainan New Energy Technology, Longkun Technology, and Weili [4]. Summary by Sections Legislative Developments - The German cabinet's approval of the RED III legislation is a significant step towards enhancing HVO and UCO demand [4]. - The legislation aims to increase the GHG reduction target for the transportation sector, with a gradual rise to 59% by 2040 [4]. Market Implications - The cancellation of double counting is anticipated to enhance HVO profitability, indirectly raising SAF (Sustainable Aviation Fuel) prices due to reduced supply [4]. - The report highlights the importance of monitoring the legislative progress in other EU member states as they implement RED III [4]. Company Valuations - Key companies in the sector are evaluated with projected net profits and market capitalizations, indicating potential investment opportunities [6]. - For instance, Shandong Hi-Speed Energy is projected to have a net profit of 1.05 billion in 2025, with a PE ratio of 33 [6].

Group 1 - The report highlights a significant increase in SAF (Sustainable Aviation Fuel) prices, with EU and China prices reaching $2,500 and $2,960 per ton respectively, marking increases of 39% and 60% since the beginning of 2025 [1][2] - The profit margin for SAF in China is calculated to exceed 4,000 yuan per ton, indicating strong profitability in the sector [1] - The tightening supply of SAF is driven by the upcoming EU and UK verification of a 2% SAF blending ratio, alongside maintenance shutdowns at major production facilities like NESTE [2] Group 2 - The implementation of the RED III legislation in the EU starting in 2026 will raise carbon reduction targets and eliminate the double carbon credit policy for biodiesel produced from used cooking oil (UCO), leading to increased demand for biodiesel and UCO [3] - The projected demand for biodiesel produced from UCO in the EU is expected to rise significantly, with estimates suggesting an increase from 3.74 million tons in 2025 to an additional 4 million tons in 2026 [3] - The maritime sector is also expected to see increased demand for biodiesel, with new regulations requiring a shift towards electric or 100% biofuel-powered vessels by 2030 [3]

Core Insights - The overall performance of companies in the environmental protection industry is strong, with significant profit growth and cash flow improvement observed in waste incineration and biofuel sectors [1] Waste Incineration Companies - Major waste incineration companies reported significant growth in net profit for Q3, with notable increases from Junxin Co. (+47.6%), Huanlan Environment (+28.1%), Yongxing Co. (+25.6%), and others [2] - Key factors for profit growth include project commissioning, asset acquisitions, improved capacity utilization, and expansion into heating services, contributing an additional profit of approximately 80 yuan per ton of waste [2] - Cash flow from operating activities for waste incineration companies improved due to increased capacity and government subsidy repayments, with Green Power's Q3 subsidy repayments being particularly favorable [2] Water Companies - Profitability among water companies showed significant variation in Q3, with notable declines in net profit for Chuangye Environmental (-10.4%) and Shou Chuang Environmental (-78.4%), while others like Hongcheng Environment (+2.1%) and Chongqing Water (+2.7%) experienced growth [3] - The sharp decline in Shou Chuang Environmental's profit was primarily due to a one-time investment gain from the sale of a Singapore company in the previous year [3] Biofuel Companies - Biofuel companies experienced substantial profit growth in Q3, driven by rising export prices and sales volume, with UCO export prices increasing by $150-$200 per ton compared to the previous year [4] - Companies like Shangaohuan Energy and Langkun Technology reported significant profit increases, with Shangaohuan achieving a net profit of 0.1 billion yuan in Q3, up from a loss of 0.2 billion yuan in the same period last year [4] - The SAF segment also saw profitability improvements, with Jiaao Environmental turning a profit of 0.5 billion yuan in Q3, attributed to increased sales volume and prices [5] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on waste incineration companies with high dividends and growth potential, such as Guangda Environment, Huanlan Environment, Yongxing Co., and Junxin Co. [6] - Biofuel companies benefiting from overseas carbon reduction policies, including Shangaohuan Energy, Jiaao Environmental, and others, are also recommended for investment [7] - High dividend assets in the water sector, such as Beikong Water Group and Yuehai Investment, are highlighted as potential investment opportunities [7]