【环球时报-环球网报道 记者 郭媛丹】东部战区新闻发言人施毅陆军大校29日表示，12月29日开始，中国人民解放军东部战区组织陆军、海 军、空军、火箭军等兵力，位台湾海峡、台岛北部、台岛西南、台岛东南、台岛以东，组织"正义使命-2025"演习。军事专家表示，东部战区 发布的海报充分展示解放军的实力：无论多少军购在解放军的铜墙铁壁面前都是枉然。 东部战区随后发布海报《正义之盾 破限除妄》。海报中，2块刻有长城图案和"八一"军徽的巨大盾牌分别插在台岛东北、东南外海，2艘驶向 台岛运有"海马斯"等武器的集装箱货船折返，3架大力神运输机返航，3艘弗吉尼亚级核潜艇在水下被拦截。 国防部新闻发言人张晓刚在12月的例行记者会上发出严重警告：台湾是中国的台湾，如何解决台湾问题是中国人自己的事。解放军捍卫国家主 权和领土完整，打"独"促统天经地义、决不手软，也不容美方置喙。 美国政府12月17日宣布，将向中国台湾地区出售价值超过111亿美元的武器装备，这一金额创下美国对台军售的历史之最，其中就包括82套"海 马斯"远程精准打击系统。 这位军事专家进一步分析表示，从海报中显示的地理方位来看，"这2块盾牌正好卡住了宫古海峡和巴士海峡 ...

166吨战略资源险些外流，96吨被追回！ "有期徒刑十二年！" 2025年12月16日下午，广东省深圳市中级人民法院内，审判长的声音掷地有声。被告席上，主犯王武彬 面如死灰，双腿发软。 166吨！整整166吨锑锭，差点就被这帮人偷运出境了。 你可能要问了：锑是什么东西？值得国家这么大动静？ 12月16日至18日，三天之内连发三条重磅消息：深圳法院宣判27人走私166吨锑锭大案，96吨被成功追 回；商务部宣布已批准部分稀土出口通用许可； 与此同时，美方刚启动111亿美元军售，美国农业部就发现一笔13.2万吨的对华小麦订单被取消。 这么说吧，锑这玩意儿，美国人做梦都想要。 它是制造热成像仪的关键材料，更是半导体产业离不开的"工业味精"。 2024年8月，商务部、海关总署联合发布公告，把锑列入出口管制清单。说白了，国家已经明确表态： 这东西，不是你想卖就能卖的。 可偏偏有人不信邪。 根据深圳中院披露的案情，2025年2月到3月，短短两个月时间，王武彬就与境外走私团伙勾结，组织了 一条完整的走私链条。 他们的手段有多狡猾？ 第一招：夹藏伪装。把锑锭藏在正常货物里，外面套上合法包装，海关不仔细查根本发现不了。 第二招： ...

Group 1 - The U.S. government announced a 34% reciprocal tariff on goods from major trading partners, including China, affecting shipping, logistics, and shipbuilding, which violates WTO rules and disrupts the U.S.-China maritime agreement [1] - This policy has led to a more than 30% increase in bilateral trade costs, reflecting a typical unilateralism aimed at reshaping global supply chains and promoting manufacturing return to the U.S. [1] - China responded swiftly by imposing equivalent tariffs on U.S. imports and implementing export controls on seven categories of rare earth elements, emphasizing national security and international non-proliferation responsibilities [4] Group 2 - The U.S. and China engaged in high-level economic talks in Geneva, agreeing to gradually reduce tariffs within 90 days and temporarily suspend some non-tariff countermeasures, showcasing a willingness to dialogue [6] - However, the U.S. quickly violated the agreement by suspending the supply of LEAP-1C engines needed for China's C919 aircraft, tightening restrictions on chip and design software exports, which impacts China's aviation supply chain [6][8] - The ongoing trade tensions have led to an 8.1% year-on-year decline in bilateral trade, while China's export structure has improved, with high-tech products now accounting for 35% of exports [10] Group 3 - Rare earth elements are crucial for high-tech industries, with China controlling 60% of global extraction and 90% of refining, particularly dominating the heavy rare earth sector at 99% [12] - U.S. automakers have already reduced production by 20% due to supply disruptions, with General Motors and Ford warning of potential factory relocations to China if the situation does not improve [12] - China's export control measures are efficient, with a tiered approval system for exports, ensuring that any product containing over 0.1% Chinese rare earths requires a license, particularly for military applications [15] Group 4 - The U.S. military faces significant challenges, with the F-35 fighter jet requiring 920 pounds of rare earths, and Virginia-class submarines needing over 9,000 pounds, leading to increased production costs and delays [17] - The Pentagon's reserves are only sufficient for 18 months, and development of the F-47 sixth-generation fighter has been paused due to supply issues [17] - In contrast, China's military prioritizes domestic supply, achieving an 85% recovery rate of rare earths at one-third of the cost compared to the U.S., highlighting the asymmetrical nature of the ongoing competition [17]

Core Insights - The article highlights the strategic importance of rare earth elements (REEs) for military applications, particularly for the U.S. Navy, which relies heavily on these materials for advanced weaponry and technology [1][5][10] - China holds a dominant position in the global rare earth market, controlling approximately 34% of the world's total reserves, which amounts to about 120 million tons [1][9] - The U.S. is currently facing challenges in its military production due to a lack of access to refined rare earth materials, which are essential for the manufacturing of advanced naval vessels and submarines [5][10] Group 1 - Rare earth elements are critical for military applications, with specific quantities required for U.S. naval vessels, such as 2.4 tons for an Arleigh Burke-class destroyer and 4.2 tons for a Virginia-class submarine [1][10] - Historically, China did not prioritize rare earth mining and processing, leading to a situation where the U.S. benefited from low-cost exports for military manufacturing [1][3] - The current landscape has shifted, with China now controlling the entire supply chain from mining to refining, making it difficult for other countries to compete [3][7] Group 2 - The U.S. is attempting to negotiate for increased rare earth exports from China, but China has implemented strict controls on exports to protect its resources and industry [5][9] - Germany has successfully navigated China's export regulations by agreeing to oversight and data sharing, demonstrating a potential model for cooperation [5][9] - The strategic management of rare earth exports by China serves as a significant leverage point in international relations, compelling countries to maintain cooperative ties with China for access to these critical materials [9][11] Group 3 - The U.S. military's reliance on rare earth elements exposes vulnerabilities in its supply chain, particularly as demand for advanced military equipment increases [7][10] - China's control over rare earth processing technology creates a barrier for other nations, as they cannot simply source raw materials without the capability to refine them [7][10] - The shift from passive resource exportation to active control over rare earth elements has transformed China's position into a powerful negotiating tool on the global stage [11]

Core Viewpoint - The recent expansion of China's rare earth export controls poses significant challenges for Taiwan's semiconductor industry, particularly for TSMC, which heavily relies on these materials for advanced chip manufacturing [1][3][5]. Group 1: Impact of Rare Earth Export Controls - China's new regulations require most semiconductor manufacturers to obtain export licenses to sell products globally, affecting all foreign organizations and individuals [5][20]. - The new rules specifically target five additional rare earth metals and extend to the production of chips below 14nm, which are critical for advanced semiconductor processes [3][5]. - TSMC's rare earth inventory is reported to last only 30 days, and without timely approvals, its advanced production capacity could drop by 40% within three months, risking supply chains for major clients like Apple and Nvidia [7][18]. Group 2: TSMC's Operational Challenges - TSMC faces rising costs and cultural conflicts at its U.S. factories, which complicate its expansion plans despite significant investments [11][13]. - The company has shifted its strategic focus towards the U.S., with plans to establish 30% of its 2nm and more advanced chip capacity there, indicating a potential shift in control and technology from Taiwan to the U.S. [13][15]. - TSMC's investment in U.S. facilities has escalated from an initial $25 billion to $65 billion, with discussions of further increasing it to $165 billion, highlighting a significant resource allocation shift [11][15]. Group 3: Global Supply Chain Repercussions - The rare earth export controls have triggered a global supply chain crisis, affecting various industries, including automotive and defense, with companies like Tesla and Lockheed Martin facing production delays [16][18]. - The U.S. Department of Defense is particularly vulnerable, with a significant portion of its weapon systems relying on Chinese rare earths, indicating a broader national security concern [24]. - China's dominance in rare earth production and processing, controlling 70% of global mining and 90% of refining capacity, positions it as a critical player in the global technology landscape [18][22].

Core Viewpoint - Pakistan has signed a cooperation agreement with the United States to jointly develop its significant oil reserves and has begun shipping rare earth samples to the U.S., indicating a strategic pivot that may challenge China's influence in the region [1][3]. Group 1: Pakistan's Strategic Moves - Pakistan plans to propose the development of a port in Pasni with the U.S., which will serve as a hub for transporting critical mineral resources, located only 112 kilometers from the Chinese-built Gwadar port [1]. - This move is seen as a geopolitical maneuver by Pakistan to enhance its standing and leverage its "all-weather strategic partnership" with China while simultaneously courting the U.S. [12]. Group 2: China's Response - In response to Pakistan's actions, China's Ministry of Commerce has implemented new regulations that emphasize "technology traceability," requiring approval for any products using Chinese technology, regardless of where they are produced [3][10]. - China's control over the global rare earth supply chain is highlighted, as it possesses critical technologies for mining, refining, and manufacturing, making it difficult for other countries, including Pakistan, to establish independent supply chains [5][6]. Group 3: U.S. Military Implications - The U.S. military's reliance on rare earth materials is underscored, with significant quantities required for advanced military equipment such as the F-35 fighter jet and Virginia-class submarines, raising concerns about supply shortages [8][10]. - The Pentagon has invested $439 million to rebuild the domestic rare earth supply chain, but the lack of essential processing technology remains a significant barrier [10][12]. Group 4: Long-term Geopolitical Dynamics - The situation reflects a broader geopolitical struggle, with China asserting its technological sovereignty and signaling that any attempts by third parties to exploit this situation will face severe consequences [14][16]. - The evolving dynamics suggest that geographical location and natural resources alone will not suffice as leverage in international relations; technological barriers have become a new frontier in geopolitical strategy [16].

Core Points - The AUKUS partnership's future remains uncertain, with the Biden administration conducting a comprehensive review that may impose stricter conditions on technology transfer and cost-sharing [1][4][6] - Recent assurances from U.S. Secretary of State Rubio indicate that the AUKUS agreement will continue, but adjustments to the agreement's content are likely to prioritize U.S. industrial and military interests [4][5][6] - Australia is investing approximately AUD 12 billion (around USD 8 billion) to develop a defense center in Perth, which is expected to support U.S. submarine maintenance and demonstrate Australia's commitment to the AUKUS project [5][6][10] Summary by Sections AUKUS Partnership Overview - The AUKUS partnership was established during the Biden administration, with ongoing scrutiny from the U.S. government regarding its alignment with "America First" policies [4][10] - The partnership involves the U.S. and U.K. providing nuclear submarine technology to Australia, with a total estimated cost of USD 245 billion for the entire program [10][11] U.S. Review and Adjustments - The U.S. Department of Defense is reviewing the AUKUS project to ensure it aligns with national interests, which may lead to a re-negotiation of terms rather than a complete cancellation [4][6][7] - Analysts suggest that the review may focus on enhancing protections for technology transfer and cost-sharing arrangements, reflecting a shift towards U.S. priorities [4][5][6] Australia's Commitment - Australia is actively seeking to strengthen its defense capabilities and has announced significant investments in infrastructure to support the AUKUS initiative [5][6] - The development of the Henderson defense precinct is expected to facilitate the construction of naval vessels and maintenance of submarines, aligning with U.S. strategic goals in the region [6][10] Strategic Implications - The AUKUS partnership is viewed as a critical component of deterrence in the Indo-Pacific region, with bipartisan support in the U.S. Congress [4][5][7] - Concerns have been raised regarding the potential for renegotiation of agreements and the implications for regional security dynamics, particularly in relation to China [11][12]

Core Points - The AUKUS agreement, signed by the US, UK, and Australia in September 2021, aims to assist Australia in building a nuclear-powered submarine fleet and sharing critical technologies [1][2] - Australia plans to invest AUD 12 billion over the next decade to upgrade the Henderson shipyard near Perth for nuclear submarine construction [1] - There are significant concerns regarding the feasibility of Australia receiving the Virginia-class submarines due to the US's own production challenges and prioritization of domestic needs [3][4] Investment and Financial Implications - Australia is expected to spend up to AUD 368 billion on the AUKUS agreement by the mid-2050s, which includes AUD 8 billion for upgrading the Stirling naval base and GBP 2.4 billion to the UK for submarine design work [2] - The financial burden of the AUKUS agreement has led to public skepticism, with only 25% of Australians willing to pay the estimated costs for nuclear submarines [9] Strategic and Operational Concerns - The US Navy's current production rate of submarines is insufficient to meet both domestic and Australian needs, with a target of 66 submarines but only 49 currently in service [3][4] - The UK is also facing challenges in maintaining its submarine fleet, which complicates the timeline and feasibility of the AUKUS submarine project [5][6] Public Sentiment and Political Reactions - There is growing opposition within Australia regarding the AUKUS agreement, with many citizens questioning its value and potential impact on national security [7][9] - Recent polls indicate a decline in public confidence regarding the safety benefits of the AUKUS agreement, with only 37% believing it enhances national security [9]

Group 1 - Australia will invest 12 billion AUD (approximately 8 billion USD) to upgrade the Henderson shipyard in Western Australia, aiming to establish it as a maintenance center for nuclear submarines under the AUKUS alliance over the next 20 years [1] - The total expenditure for developing the Henderson submarine dock may reach 25 billion AUD (16.6 billion USD) [1] - Australia currently lacks the infrastructure to service nuclear submarines, prompting the need for this investment [1] Group 2 - The AUKUS partnership, which includes the US, UK, and Australia, has raised international concerns regarding nuclear proliferation risks and the potential destabilization of regional security [2] - The US Department of Defense is reassessing the AUKUS agreement to ensure it aligns with the "America First" agenda, while assurances have been given by US officials that the partnership will continue [2] - Recent Australian defense investments include a 10 billion AUD (6.6 billion USD) purchase of 11 Japanese "Mikuma" class frigates and 1.7 billion AUD (1.1 billion USD) for the development of the "Ghost Shark" underwater drone fleet [2]

Core Viewpoint - China's export of rare earth magnets to the U.S. surged by 660% in June, reaching 353 tons, highlighting the strategic leverage China holds over U.S. military and industrial sectors [1][3]. Group 1: Military Implications - The F-35 fighter jet requires 417 kg of rare earth materials, while Virginia-class submarines consume around 4 tons, indicating a heavy reliance on these materials for military capabilities [3]. - U.S. defense contractors like Lockheed Martin and Raytheon are facing production halts due to a lack of rare earth supplies, with Raytheon reportedly having only 90 days of stock left for critical components [3]. - The U.S. government's attempts to boost domestic rare earth production have been ineffective, as local processing capabilities remain significantly lower than China's, with a cost disadvantage of 2.3 times [3][10]. Group 2: Civilian Market Impact - Tesla's production costs have increased by $2,200 per vehicle due to the need to switch to alternative materials, while Apple has delayed the release of the iPhone 17 due to shortages of rare earth components [6]. - Boeing's production line for the 787 aircraft has come to a standstill, resulting in a 12% drop in stock price, underscoring the critical role of rare earth materials in the aerospace sector [6]. Group 3: Strategic Responses - The U.S. Department of Commerce has quietly removed 11 Chinese semiconductor companies from the entity list in an effort to secure rare earth supplies, which has been criticized as a strategic capitulation [8]. - China has demonstrated a significant technological advantage in rare earth processing, achieving a purity level of 99.9999% in certain materials, far exceeding U.S. capabilities [8][10]. - The U.S. Senate is pushing for legislation to reduce reliance on Chinese rare earths to 30% by 2027, but this has faced opposition from major companies like Tesla and General Motors, who warn of potential industry collapse [13]. Group 4: Future Projections - The demand for rare earth materials is expected to increase by 300% by 2026, driven by advancements in technologies such as humanoid robots, with Chinese companies already securing 90% of the necessary magnet orders [11][13]. - China's strategic initiatives include patent registrations and the establishment of environmental standards that could disadvantage foreign competitors, further solidifying its dominance in the rare earth market [13][15].