一场围绕稀土的"卡脖子"之战：美国总统的失态与中国的战略布局 "中国必须给我们稀土！"2025年8月，时任美国总统特朗普在白宫的舞台上，面对全球目光，发出了近乎咆哮的警告。他甚至威胁，若中国不就 范，将对中国商品施加高达200%的惩罚性关税。是什么让这位美国总统在世界面前如此"失态"？答案，就隐藏在美国最为尖端的军事工业—— F-35战斗机的生产线上。 每一架F-35战斗机，都需要约417公斤的中国稀土作为关键部件。然而，五角大楼彼时仅有可供3个月作战储备的稀土。当中国收紧稀土出口 的"阀门"时，美国军工复合体第一次切肤感受到被"卡脖子"的窒息感。 2025年4月，中国对钐、铽、镝等七类中重稀土实施出口管制，这一举措犹如精准打击，直刺美国军事的"命门"。 五角大楼内部的报告揭示了这场危机触目惊心的细节： F-35生产线骤降： 由于关键磁体短缺，F-35生产线被迫减产42%，年产量从原计划的156架"雪崩式"跌至89架。 核潜艇停滞： 每艘弗吉尼亚级核潜艇消耗约4吨稀土，而关键声呐部件所需的镝元素供应中断，直接导致部分潜艇项目陷入停工。 "标枪"导弹受阻： 另一款明星武器"标枪"反坦克导弹，其高性能钕铁硼磁体的 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the impact of China's export controls on rare earth elements, particularly on the U.S. military-industrial complex, which faces significant production losses and supply chain vulnerabilities [1][15][17] Group 1: U.S. Military and Supply Chain Issues - U.S. military contractors are experiencing a daily loss of $230 million on the F-35 production line due to rare earth supply shortages, with only 60 days of inventory available [1][15] - The importance of rare earth materials is underscored, as each F-35 requires 417 kilograms of rare earths, and Virginia-class submarines require up to 4 tons [13][15] - The U.S. is heavily reliant on China for rare earth processing, holding 92% of global refining capabilities, which exposes structural weaknesses in the U.S. supply chain [15][17] Group 2: Smuggling and Trade Dynamics - From December 2024 to April 2025, the U.S. imported 3,834 tons of antimony oxide from Thailand and Mexico, surpassing the total from the previous three years, with these materials originating from China [3][5] - Thailand and Mexico have emerged as significant players in the rare earth export market, with Thailand's imports of antimony oxide increasing by 27 times in the first half of 2025 [5][7] - Smugglers are using various methods to evade detection, including mixing rare earth oxides with other materials and mislabeling shipments [9][11] Group 3: China's Response and Regulatory Measures - In response to rampant smuggling, China has initiated a multi-faceted crackdown, including enhanced customs inspections and the introduction of a new mineral resources law that imposes severe penalties for smuggling [19][21] - The use of advanced technologies, such as blockchain for traceability and isotopic fingerprinting for source verification, is being implemented to combat illegal trade [23] - Recent operations have led to the arrest of 63 individuals and the blacklisting of 37 companies involved in smuggling activities [23]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in China's rare earth exports to the U.S. has become a significant bargaining chip in ongoing trade negotiations, highlighting the strategic importance of rare earth materials in both military and civilian sectors [1][3][4]. Group 1: Rare Earth Exports and Trade Negotiations - In June, China's rare earth exports to the U.S. increased to 353 tons, nearly a sevenfold increase from the previous month, coinciding with critical trade talks [1]. - The U.S. was caught off guard by this sudden increase, leading to a shift in its negotiating stance, particularly due to its urgent need for rare earths in military applications [1][4]. - The U.S. Department of Defense invested $400 million to acquire preferred shares in MP Materials, the largest domestic rare earth producer, indicating the urgency of addressing the supply crisis [3]. Group 2: Impact on U.S. Industries - The shortage of rare earths has severely impacted U.S. manufacturing, with companies like Ford and Tesla facing production halts due to a lack of essential materials [3]. - The Trump administration is taking aggressive measures to boost domestic rare earth production, including setting a minimum purchase price for key rare earth elements at $110 per kilogram, nearly double the international market price [3][6]. Group 3: Strategic Dilemmas for the U.S. - Despite having rare earth mining capabilities, the U.S. remains heavily reliant on China for refining and processing, complicating its efforts to establish a self-sufficient supply chain [3][7]. - The U.S. faces a strategic dilemma: investing heavily in domestic production could cost trillions, while relying on imports keeps it dependent on China [7][9]. Group 4: China's Strategic Position - China controls 61% of global rare earth production and 90% of the market share, supported by a complete industrial chain from mining to processing [7]. - China's recent legal reforms, including the expansion of its strategic mineral resource catalog, strengthen its position in the global rare earth market [6][9]. Group 5: Long-term Implications - The ongoing rare earth competition is fundamentally a struggle for technological supremacy, affecting various industries from defense to renewable energy [10]. - China's strategic patience and control over rare earth exports allow it to maintain pressure on the U.S. while developing alternative materials and technologies [9][10].

Core Points - The U.S. Navy's production of Virginia-class submarines is insufficient to meet both domestic defense needs and commitments under the AUKUS agreement with Australia, requiring a doubling of production speed to fulfill these obligations [1][3] - Current production rates are approximately 1.13 submarines per year, while a minimum of 2 submarines per year is needed for U.S. defense, and around 2.33 submarines per year would be necessary to supply Australia [3] - The former Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull indicated a very high likelihood that Australia may not receive any Virginia-class submarines due to U.S. production shortfalls, which could leave Australia without submarine capabilities for the next 10 to 20 years [4][5] Industry Insights - The U.S. Navy's shipbuilding capacity is described as "stagnant," with no simple solutions available to enhance production efficiency, necessitating a transformative increase in output rather than marginal improvements [3] - Australia has invested 16 billion AUD (approximately 10.4 billion USD) to support U.S. shipbuilding efforts, but results have been minimal [3] - The AUKUS agreement has faced criticism and scrutiny due to its implications for nuclear proliferation and regional security dynamics, with recent reports suggesting a reconsideration of the agreement by the U.S. Department of Defense [5][6]

Group 1 - The U.S. has deployed the second nuclear submarine, "Indiana," to Hawaii this month, following the earlier deployment of the "Toledo" submarine in July [1][3] - The "Indiana" submarine, which arrived at its new home port at Pearl Harbor-Hickam Joint Base on the 22nd, is now the third Virginia-class submarine under the U.S. Navy's seventh submarine squadron [3] - The Pentagon is reportedly enhancing military deployments in the Western Pacific region in response to perceived threats from China's growing military capabilities [4] Group 2 - The "Indiana" submarine, which entered service in 2018, is the 16th Virginia-class submarine and features two large payload launch tubes capable of firing six Tomahawk cruise missiles each, with a range of 1,000 miles (approximately 1,600 kilometers) [4] - The current submarine squadron stationed at Pearl Harbor supports seven fast-attack submarines, including three Virginia-class and four Los Angeles-class submarines [3]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the strategic leverage China holds over the U.S. through its control of rare earth exports, particularly in the context of U.S. military and high-end manufacturing reliance on these materials [1][2][4] - The U.S. automotive industry, including major manufacturers like General Motors, Ford, and Stellantis, has received temporary export permits for rare earths from China, but this is seen as a strategic trial rather than a permanent solution [1][5] - The U.S. military and high-tech sectors are significantly impacted by China's rare earth export controls, with critical components like the F-35 fighter jet and Virginia-class submarines heavily reliant on these materials [1][2][4] Group 2 - China's dominance in the rare earth market is underscored by the fact that it produces 90% of the world's high-performance rare earth magnets, essential for various advanced technologies [2][4] - The introduction of a rare earth tracking system by China aims to tighten control over the supply chain, making it difficult for companies to divert materials for unauthorized uses [2][5] - The U.S. response includes plans to establish domestic processing facilities and potential imports from Russia, but these efforts face significant technological and time barriers [4][5] Group 3 - The conditions set by China for continued rare earth exports include the U.S. lifting restrictions on Chinese technology sectors, indicating a complex interplay of trade and geopolitical strategy [7][9] - The pressure is mounting on U.S. leadership, particularly Trump, as the automotive sector's reliance on Chinese rare earths could have significant political repercussions if production is forced to relocate [9][10] - The ongoing rare earth competition reflects a broader shift in the balance of power between the U.S. and China, with implications for future negotiations over other critical materials [9][10]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the strategic importance of rare earth elements in the context of U.S.-China relations, emphasizing China's dominant position in the global rare earth market and the implications of its export controls on U.S. industries [1][3][10]. Group 1: Rare Earth Elements Overview - Rare earth elements consist of 17 metals that play a crucial role in modern technology and military applications, being referred to as "industrial vitamins" [1]. - China holds approximately 44 million tons of rare earth reserves, accounting for nearly 40% of the global total, and is projected to produce 270,000 tons in 2024, representing 70% of global output [3][4]. Group 2: China's Dominance and Technological Advancements - China has developed a complete and advanced rare earth processing industry, controlling 90% of the global refining technology, which gives it a significant advantage over other countries [3][4]. - The introduction of advanced extraction technologies has allowed China to improve purity and reduce costs, transitioning from a reliance on imports to a leadership role in the global rare earth market [4]. Group 3: U.S. Dependency and Strategic Concerns - The U.S. military and high-tech industries heavily depend on Chinese rare earth supplies, with significant portions of materials required for advanced military equipment sourced from China [6][9]. - The U.S. is seeking to negotiate with China to ease export restrictions on rare earths to meet domestic industrial needs, indicating a critical reliance on Chinese resources [6][10]. Group 4: Environmental and Resource Management - China is implementing stricter controls on rare earth mining and exports to ensure sustainable resource management and to protect the environment, reflecting a shift towards higher value-added processing [4][7]. - The focus on sustainable practices aims to prevent over-exploitation of rare earth resources for short-term gains, ensuring availability for future generations [7]. Group 5: Diplomatic and Strategic Implications - Rare earths have become a significant bargaining chip in U.S.-China diplomatic relations, with both countries vying for control over this critical resource [9][10]. - The outcome of negotiations regarding rare earth exports could influence broader U.S.-China relations, impacting economic, technological, and military dynamics between the two nations [10].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Department of Defense has officially begun reassessing the AUKUS trilateral security partnership agreement, causing anxiety in Australia and the UK, although Australia believes its nuclear submarine procurement will not be affected [1][2]. Group 1: AUKUS Partnership and Nuclear Submarine Procurement - The AUKUS partnership was announced in September 2021, allowing Australia to purchase Virginia-class nuclear submarines from the U.S. and collaborate with the UK on new submarine construction [2]. - Australia has already made an initial payment of $500 million, with a total of $2 billion due by 2025 to help expand U.S. production capacity for the submarines [3]. - The Australian government plans to invest AUD 368 billion (approximately USD 239.3 billion) over 30 years for the purchase and construction of nuclear submarines, marking the largest defense project signed with the U.S. and the UK [6]. Group 2: U.S. Defense Department's Reassessment - The reassessment led by policy advisor Elbridge Colby aims to ensure that the partnership aligns with the "America First" agenda and evaluates the U.S. military's readiness and industrial base [1][2]. - Concerns have been raised regarding whether the U.S. can meet its own production goals while also fulfilling commitments to allies, as the production rate of Virginia-class submarines has not met expectations [5]. Group 3: Reactions and Implications - Australian Defense Minister Richard Marles stated that the reassessment is a natural occurrence and will not impact Australia's nuclear submarine procurement [6]. - Former Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull criticized the lack of reassessment from Australia, highlighting the risks involved [8]. - The UK government is also concerned about the implications of the U.S. reassessment and has announced plans to invest GBP 15 billion in nuclear deterrent capabilities, including the construction of 12 new nuclear-powered attack submarines [8].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the strategic importance of rare earth elements in the context of US-China trade relations, highlighting China's dominant position in the rare earth supply chain and the implications for global technology industries [4][13][22]. Group 1: US-China Trade Relations - Following a conversation between the US and Chinese leaders, President Trump announced that China agreed to resume rare earth exports to the US [4]. - The ongoing trade tensions have led to a focus on rare earths and technology, with both countries leveraging their respective strengths: the US in chips and China in rare earths [5][8]. - China's cautious approach to export controls contrasts with the US's aggressive sanctions, indicating a strategic shift in response to US actions [5][24]. Group 2: Importance of Rare Earths - Rare earth elements are crucial for various high-tech applications, including automotive, semiconductors, and military technologies [7][20]. - The supply of rare earths is currently tight, leading to significant price increases; for instance, the price of dysprosium oxide in Europe rose by 167.8% since early April [15]. - Major automotive manufacturers are facing production challenges due to rare earth shortages, with some factories temporarily shutting down [18][16]. Group 3: China's Dominance in Rare Earths - China controls over 60% of global rare earth production and 92% of processing, giving it a near-monopoly in the sector [13][14]. - The US heavily relies on China for rare earth imports, with over 90% of its rare earth compounds and metals coming from China as of 2023 [22]. - Historical context shows that China's dominance in rare earths is a result of decades of strategic investment and policy decisions [24][25]. Group 4: US Efforts to Diversify Supply - The US is exploring alternative sources for rare earths, including partnerships with countries like Australia and Ukraine, and projects like the Round Top project in Texas [39][38]. - Despite these efforts, the US faces significant challenges in establishing a self-sufficient rare earth supply chain, with estimates suggesting it could take at least 10 years and $10-15 billion to develop [44][42]. - The historical challenges faced by US rare earth production, particularly the closure of the Mountain Pass mine, highlight the difficulties in competing with China's established supply chain [35][45].