贸易战的暗礁：稀土，中国手中的王牌 一场由关税引发的贸易战，本是美国总统特朗普寄予厚望的制胜法宝，意图借此遏制中国的发展势头。然而，事与愿违，中国巧妙地祭出了另一张王牌—— 稀土，将美国牢牢地握在了手中。近期，英国媒体的报道更是揭示了中国在稀土管控上的日益收紧，导致价格扶摇直上，部分品类甚至飙升了惊人的六十 倍，这背后究竟隐藏着怎样的博弈？ 溯源：一场意想不到的"反击" 这场风波的起点，可以追溯到特朗普政府的第二次执政时期。彼时，特朗普对中国的高科技产品和芯片施加了加征关税的重拳，企图以此扼住中国经济发展 的咽喉。然而，中国商务部并未选择退让，而是迅速采取了有力反制措施。针对七种关键稀土元素，中国实施了出口管制，要求任何购买者必须申请许可 证，并承诺不得将其用于军事目的。 此时，嗅到商机的欧洲稀土供应商立刻抓住了机会，将其中一种稀土的价格提高了整整六十倍。面对欧洲供应商的"趁火打劫"，美国企业别无选择，为了维 持自身的生产线，只能不计成本地高价采购。自此，整个稀土市场犹如被上了发条一般，价格一路飙升。中国国内，两家主要的稀土生产企业也在第四季度 宣布整体提价百分之三十七，部分重稀土品类的价格更是可能翻五倍。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent tightening of rare earth exports by China has raised global concerns, particularly in the military, wind energy, and electric vehicle sectors, highlighting the strategic importance of these resources [3][9][12]. Group 1: Strategic Importance of Rare Earths - Rare earths consist of 17 metals essential for various technologies, including mobile chips, missiles, and wind turbines [3]. - China's management of rare earths is rooted in its recognition of these materials as strategic resources, akin to oil in the Middle East [3][22]. - The U.S. military's annual consumption of rare earths is less than 0.8% of global production, indicating a lower dependency than perceived [9]. Group 2: Regulatory Developments - In June 2024, China introduced the "Rare Earth Management Regulations," implementing total quantity control over mining and refining [5]. - The export control measures announced in April 2024 are part of a broader strategy to manage rare earth resources effectively [5][16]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Adjustments - The U.S. military and electric vehicle industries have expressed significant concern over their reliance on rare earths, with some companies exploring alternative sources and technologies [9][14]. - The European Union has initiated plans to diversify its rare earth sources, yet remains heavily reliant on China for critical materials [12][20]. Group 4: Economic Implications - The price dynamics of rare earths vary significantly, with heavy rare earths like neodymium and dysprosium remaining stable, while light rare earths have seen price drops due to increased production from other countries [18]. - China's shift from exporting raw materials to selling finished products has led to a significant market share in rare earth magnets, accounting for 70% of the global market [20][21]. Group 5: Future Outlook - By 2030, the global rare earth landscape is expected to shift from China's dominance to a more collaborative model, emphasizing the need for adherence to regulations [22]. - The U.S. Department of Defense is investing in a complete supply chain for rare earths, indicating a long-term strategy to reduce dependency on foreign sources [20].

Core Insights - China currently controls 100% of the global heavy rare earth market, facilitating significant cooperation among the US, Europe, and Japan [3] - Japan plans to increase its procurement of rare earths from Australia's Lynas Corporation to 30%, indicating a reliance on this company for future electric vehicles and wind turbines [3] - Despite Lynas being the largest rare earth company outside of China, its production capacity only accounts for 5% of China's total rare earth production [5] Group 1 - The heavy rare earths are mined in Mount Weld, Australia, and processed in Malaysia before being exported to Japan, highlighting the supply chain dynamics [3] - Japan's emphasis on sourcing rare earths from Lynas reflects its strategic move to reduce dependence on Chinese supplies [3] - The reliance on Chinese technology and materials for 90% of rare earth patents and extraction processes poses a risk to Lynas's operations [3][5] Group 2 - China's ability to use low-price dumping and control over patents and extraction materials allows it to maintain a competitive edge in the rare earth market [5] - Recent smuggling incidents in China, reported by a US company, indicate the need for improved management and control of rare earth resources [8] - The relationship between Lynas and China, particularly in terms of equipment and material imports, underscores the complexities of the global rare earth supply chain [3][8]

Core Points - The meeting between the leaders of China and the United States has injected important momentum into the stability of bilateral relations, but specific policies regarding rare earth controls should be addressed by the Ministry of Commerce [1] - China will not relax its rare earth export controls due to U.S. demands, as these controls are tied to national security [3][4] - China has postponed the implementation of new rare earth control measures originally scheduled for October, maintaining stricter policies announced in previous months [3][4] - The emphasis on "security" in China's rare earth management reflects the need to prevent over-exploitation of these critical resources for future generations [4][6] - Despite reaching a consensus in trade talks, the underlying issues between China and the U.S. remain unresolved, indicating that the competition is ongoing [6] - China requires all companies wishing to purchase rare earths to comply with its reporting regulations, while the U.S. is attempting to form a critical mineral resource alliance with G7 countries [8]

Core Points - The core issues raised by President Trump in the recent US-China trade negotiations include the cancellation of tariffs related to fentanyl, the resumption of Chinese purchases of US soybeans, and the relaxation of controls on rare earth exports, which reveal deeper vulnerabilities in the US supply chain, agricultural exports, and drug governance [1][3][5] Group 1: Trade Policy Adjustments - The Trump administration's trade policy towards China has shown a strategic shift from imposing high tariffs to proposing specific negotiation conditions, indicating a willingness to lower tariffs under certain conditions [3][5] - The proposed "lower tariffs in exchange for concessions from China" plan appears to be a mutually beneficial trade at first glance, but it reveals an inherent imbalance in the negotiation logic [5] Group 2: Soybean Market Dynamics - Soybeans have become a barometer for the direction of US-China trade tensions, with the US facing a survival crisis in agriculture, as soybean inventories reached 1.87 billion bushels, a 12% increase year-on-year [6][7] - China, once the largest buyer of US soybeans, drastically reduced imports to 8 million tons in 2024, down from 32 million tons in 2017, while increasing imports from Brazil, Argentina, and Russia [7] - The competitiveness of US soybeans has declined, with production costs reaching $480 per ton, significantly higher than Brazil's, exacerbated by tariffs imposed by both countries [7] Group 3: Fentanyl Policy Issues - The inclusion of fentanyl in trade negotiations highlights the US's attempt to externalize domestic governance issues, as fentanyl-related deaths have surged, exceeding 120,000 in 2024 [8] - The US has imposed a 20% tariff on fentanyl imports from countries like China and Mexico, despite evidence that illegal fentanyl primarily originates from Mexico, not China [8] - The so-called "fentanyl tax" has generated less than $300 million in revenue by September 2025, failing to facilitate cooperation in drug regulation and intelligence sharing [8] Group 4: Rare Earth Dependency - The issue of rare earth controls underscores the US's passive position in critical resource sectors, with China holding 85% of the world's known heavy rare earth reserves and 90% of refining capacity [9] - The US high-tech industry is heavily reliant on Chinese rare earth materials, and while efforts are underway to build alternative supply chains, over 60% of US rare earth demand is expected to remain dependent on China until at least 2030 [9] Group 5: New Negotiation Framework - The three issues raised by Trump indicate a shift from a unilateral pressure model to a new framework of "equal dialogue and mutual benefit" in US-China trade negotiations [10] - China is open to resolving differences through negotiation, given the substantial trade volume, which reached $690 billion in 2024, aligning with mutual interests [10] - The future of US-China relations is evolving towards a more balanced interaction, moving away from one-sided pressure tactics [10]

Core Viewpoint - China has shifted from negotiation to a hardline stance against the U.S., indicating a loss of patience with the Trump administration's trade policies [1][3][24] Group 1: China's Stance and Strategy - China has clearly demonstrated a confrontational position against the U.S., showing no easy path for compromise, reflecting confidence in its own strength in the trade war [3][24] - The Chinese government has consistently implemented reciprocal measures in response to U.S. tariffs, indicating a firm resolve to resist pressure [3][21] - The strategic use of rare earth controls serves as a significant countermeasure, impacting U.S. high-tech and military industries due to China's central role in the global rare earth supply chain [5][19] Group 2: Economic Impact and Market Diversification - The U.S. tariff measures are expected to negatively affect the domestic economy, as evidenced by the backlash from U.S. agricultural states against the Trump administration [5][19] - China's export market diversification has been effective, with the share of exports to the U.S. dropping from 19.2% in 2018 to an anticipated 10% by 2025, while exports to Europe, Russia, and other developing countries are on the rise [10][19] - The automotive sector, particularly electric vehicles, has seen significant growth, with exports exceeding 1.75 million units in the first three quarters of 2025, marking a nearly 90% year-on-year increase [10] Group 3: Technological Independence and Strategic Adjustments - China's advancements in technology, particularly in semiconductors, have led to a reduction in reliance on U.S. imports, with domestic alternatives emerging in response to U.S. export restrictions [13][19] - The strategic shift towards energy import diversification has strengthened China's position, reducing dependence on U.S. energy supplies and enhancing energy security [19][21] Group 4: Response to U.S. Actions - China's recent measures, including the escalation of rare earth controls, are seen as a logical response to the U.S.'s increasing pressure and sanctions [15][19] - The ongoing trade conflict is characterized by a series of U.S. measures aimed at China, which have prompted China to enhance its resilience and risk management strategies [15][19] - The outcome of this prolonged conflict will depend on the determination and preparedness of both sides, with China having established a comprehensive response system over the years [24]

Group 1: Copper - LME copper price increased by 2.41% to $10,624.00 per ton, while Shanghai copper decreased by 1.77% to 84,400 yuan per ton [1][12] - Domestic copper inventory increased by 0.55 thousand tons to 17.75 thousand tons due to weak downstream consumption and replenishment of imported sources [1][12] - The operating rate of domestic major refined copper rod enterprises rose to 62.5%, up 19.06% week-on-week, but down 16.39% year-on-year, indicating a recovery post-holiday but still below pre-holiday levels [1][12] Group 2: Aluminum - LME aluminum price rose by 1.82% to $2,796.00 per ton, while Shanghai aluminum decreased by 0.33% to 20,900 yuan per ton [2][13] - Domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 2.3 thousand tons, indicating a slight recovery in demand [2][13] - The operating rate of domestic aluminum processing enterprises remained stable at 62.5%, with a year-on-year decline of 1.4% [2][13] Group 3: Gold - COMEX gold price increased by 7.65% to $4,344.30 per ounce, influenced by U.S. government shutdown and geopolitical risks [3][14] - SPDR gold holdings increased by 17.46 tons to 1,034.62 tons, reflecting increased demand amid market uncertainties [3][14] - The U.S. government shutdown has led to delays in key economic data releases, impacting the economy and the dollar's position [3][14] Group 4: Rare Earths - The price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide decreased by 9.01% to 507,100 yuan per ton, with expectations of price recovery due to overseas replenishment [4][32] - The strategic importance of rare earths has increased due to regulatory changes, with a positive outlook for major companies in the sector [4][32] - The implementation of new regulations is expected to gradually show positive effects on supply and pricing [4][32] Group 5: Antimony - Antimony price decreased by 4.08%, but demand is expected to recover due to the stabilization of photovoltaic glass production [4][33] - The implementation of stricter standards for flame-retardant cables may provide a demand boost for antimony [4][33] - Global antimony prices are expected to trend upward due to resource scarcity and reduced supply from major mines [4][33] Group 6: Lithium - The average price of lithium carbonate decreased by 0.63% to 73,100 yuan per ton, while lithium hydroxide decreased by 0.43% to 78,200 yuan per ton [5][60] - Total lithium carbonate production increased to 21,100 tons, reflecting a slight recovery in supply [5][60] - Strong demand from the energy storage sector is expected to support lithium prices despite recent supply increases [5][60] Group 7: Cobalt - Cobalt price increased by 9% to 381,000 yuan per ton, driven by tight supply conditions [5][61] - The market is characterized by a "price without market" phenomenon, with strong upward pressure on prices due to raw material shortages [5][61] - Future price increases are anticipated as supply constraints from Congo continue to affect the market [5][61] Group 8: Nickel - LME nickel price increased by 0.1% to $15,200 per ton, while Shanghai nickel price decreased by 0.6% to 121,200 yuan per ton [5][62] - Concerns over the stability of nickel ore supply due to regulatory changes in Indonesia are providing short-term support for prices [5][62] - The market is expected to remain volatile due to the interplay between supply disruptions and weak fundamentals [5][62]

Core Viewpoint - Rare earth materials have become a significant strategic asset for China, allowing it to leverage its position against the U.S. and other Western countries, creating a sense of urgency and vulnerability among them [1]. Group 1: Importance of Rare Earths - Rare earths have extensive and irreplaceable applications, crucial for high-end electronics and clean energy devices, as well as military technologies, where their unique properties enhance performance and reliability [5]. - A shortage of rare earth supplies could severely impact the manufacturing of advanced weapons and high-end consumer electronics [5]. Group 2: China's Competitive Advantage - China possesses a complete industrial chain for rare earths, from mining to deep processing, which is supported by significant investments in purification technology and related patents [6]. - Other countries, despite having rare earth deposits, lack the advanced processing capabilities that China has developed, making it difficult for them to meet high-end demands quickly [6][9]. Group 3: Political and Economic Context - The geopolitical landscape, characterized by strained bilateral relations and restrictions on technology and markets, has elevated the strategic value of rare earths, prompting China to implement stricter export controls [7]. - Following October 9, 2023, China has tightened its export management of rare earths, requiring prior approval for both military and civilian exports, which has led to discussions in the West about enhancing domestic capabilities [12]. Group 4: Future Implications - The competition over rare earths is likely to drive structural changes in global industries, including increased R&D investment and exploration of alternative materials [18]. - Countries that can achieve breakthroughs in purification or alternative technologies will gain significant influence in the industry [18]. - China has a critical five-year window to solidify its technological advantages and supply chain security, while the U.S. may seek diplomatic solutions to address its lag in rare earth processing capabilities [15][21].

Group 1: Copper - LME copper price decreased by 3.05% to $10,374.00 per ton, while Shanghai copper increased by 3.37% to ¥85,900 per ton [1][13] - Domestic copper inventory increased by 18,000 tons to 166,300 tons, mainly due to increased domestic supply and weak downstream consumption [1][13] - The operating rate of waste anode plate enterprises rose to 53.04%, with expectations of further increase to 58.13% next week [1][13] Group 2: Aluminum - LME aluminum price increased by 1.63% to $2,746.00 per ton, and Shanghai aluminum rose by 1.45% to ¥21,000 per ton [2][14] - Domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory reached 649,000 tons, up by 57,000 tons from September 29 [2][14] - The operating rate of primary aluminum alloy decreased slightly to 58.0%, affected by weak demand and unclear orders [2][14] Group 3: Gold - COMEX gold price increased by 1.28% to $4,035.50 per ounce, with SPDR gold holdings rising by 3.99 tons to 1,017.16 tons [3][15] - The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes indicated a consensus to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4%-4.25% [3][15] - The U.S. government shutdown impacted economic data release and public services, affecting market sentiment [3][15] Group 4: Rare Earths - The price of praseodymium-neodymium oxide decreased by 0.89%, while the strategic importance of rare earths has increased due to enhanced control measures [4][31] - The sector is expected to experience a "short-term bearish, long-term bullish" trend, with potential price increases as supply reforms take effect [4][31] - Key companies to watch include China Rare Earth, Guangxi Rare Earth, and Northern Rare Earth [4][31] Group 5: Antimony - Antimony price decreased by 1.12%, but demand for photovoltaic glass is recovering [4][32] - The implementation of stricter fire-resistant standards may provide a demand boost for antimony [4][32] - Global antimony prices are expected to trend upward due to resource scarcity and recovering demand [4][32] Group 6: Tin - Tin price increased by 5.16%, supported by Indonesia's crackdown on illegal tin mining [4][33] - The current inventory levels are decreasing, indicating a strong support for tin prices [4][33] - The long-term outlook for tin remains positive due to demand from AI and photovoltaic sectors [4][33] Group 7: Lithium - The average price of lithium carbonate remained stable at ¥73,600 per ton, while lithium hydroxide decreased by 0.19% to ¥78,500 per ton [5][59] - Lithium production increased to 20,600 tons, with expectations of further supply growth [5][59] - Downstream demand from new energy vehicles and energy storage remains strong, supporting price stability [5][59] Group 8: Cobalt - Cobalt price surged by 17.8% to ¥349,500 per ton, driven by supply concerns and rising demand [5][61] - The market is experiencing a "price without market" situation due to tight supply and high demand [5][61] - Future price increases are anticipated due to ongoing supply constraints from Congo [5][61] Group 9: Nickel - LME nickel price decreased by 1.3% to $15,200 per ton, while Shanghai nickel price increased by 1.4% to ¥122,000 per ton [5][62] - Nickel inventory increased by 5,700 tons to 237,400 tons, raising concerns about supply stability [5][62] - The market is expected to remain volatile due to conflicting supply and demand signals [5][62]

Core Points - The article discusses Trump's announcement of a 100% increase in tariffs on China starting in November, alongside tighter controls on software exports to China, which he claims is a response to China's new rare earth policies [1][3] - China's Ministry of Commerce has announced stricter controls on the export of rare earth materials, which are crucial for various high-tech applications, including semiconductor manufacturing [3][7] - The article emphasizes China's dominant position in the global rare earth market, controlling 40% of the world's rare earth minerals and 70% of the global extraction volume, making it a critical player in this industry [5][8] Summary by Sections Tariff Increase and Software Export Controls - Trump plans to raise tariffs on China by 100% and impose stricter regulations on software exports, claiming it is a necessary measure against China's rare earth policies [1][3] - The new U.S. tariffs and export controls are seen as retaliatory actions against China's tightening of rare earth export regulations [3][8] China's Rare Earth Policy - China's new policy on rare earths covers a wide range of materials and processes, from mining to recycling, indicating a comprehensive approach to control [3][8] - The specific rare earth materials targeted are essential for manufacturing advanced technologies, such as 5G components and semiconductors [7][8] Strategic Implications - The article suggests that China's rare earth export controls are a strategic move to maintain leverage in negotiations with the U.S., countering perceived U.S. aggression in trade talks [10][14] - Experts believe that this escalation could lead to unprecedented confrontations between the U.S. and China, intensifying the ongoing trade war [10][14] Political Context - The article notes that Trump's declining approval ratings and various political challenges may influence his aggressive stance on trade with China [16][20] - The situation is further complicated by Trump's struggles with the Federal Reserve and internal party dynamics, which could impact his administration's approach to trade policies [20][22]