Core Viewpoint - Japan is seeking to establish a rare earth supply chain in collaboration with the US and Europe, aiming to reduce its dependence on China and counteract China's influence in the rare earth market [1][5]. Group 1: Japan's Actions and Statements - Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki announced plans to visit the US to discuss critical mineral issues with counterparts from "democratic countries" [1]. - Suzuki expressed concerns about Japan's reliance on Chinese rare earths, stating that without action, China would continue to pose a threat to Japan's economy [1][5]. - The Japanese government aims to create a rare earth market composed of "normal democratic countries and market economies" [1]. Group 2: China's Response and Economic Impact - China has implemented export controls on dual-use products to Japan and initiated anti-dumping investigations on certain Japanese imports [5]. - Analysts estimate that if China restricts rare earth exports to Japan for three months, it could result in a loss of approximately 660 billion yen, impacting Japan's nominal and real GDP by 0.11% [7]. - If the restrictions last for a year, the losses could escalate to 2.6 trillion yen, leading to a 0.43% decrease in GDP [7]. Group 3: Broader Implications and Market Reactions - The G7 countries, including Japan, have not abandoned plans to intervene in rare earth pricing, with discussions about setting a price floor and imposing tariffs on Chinese exports [2]. - UBS analysts noted that if rare earths are included in trade restrictions, the impact would be widespread, particularly affecting the automotive, electronics, and precision instruments sectors [7]. - Japan's reliance on Chinese heavy rare earths for electric vehicle motors is nearly 100%, indicating significant vulnerability to supply disruptions [7].

[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 7 Jan 2026 MP Materials (MP US) 稀土市场基本面向好；更多利好因素和战略合作伙伴关系有望出现 李丹怡 Catherine Li catherine.dy.li@htisec.com [Table_yemei1] 热点速评 Flash Analysis [Table_summary] (This note is the Chinese translation of a note that was originally written in English and published on 7 Jan 2026) 事件 美战争部会计处理的清晰性：公司对其美战争部交易的会计处理方式十分明确，根据美国通用会计准则，该协议不 属于营收范围（第三方为五角大楼），并将出现营业利润低于营业收入的情况。该协议将包含一笔额外的钕镨付款 部分（即销售价格与 110 美元/千克之间的差额），并且根据用于回收氧化钕镨的分配量的不同，还会从钕镨精矿支 付款项至库存。 自十月中旬以来，MP Material 的股价表现弱于大市约 35%，部 ...

近期，韩国联合美国、澳大利亚、以色列、新加坡、日本等国，共同组建了一个技术联盟，意在削弱中 国在全球稀土矿产市场的主导地位。而就在这一系列行动之后，韩国又在蒙古国投资了98亿韩元，设立 了稀有金属研究与实验中心。这个中心将专注于对蒙古境内发现的稀土金属（包括锡、钨、煤等）进行 分析、加工、选矿，并提供精炼技术方面的培训。 可以看出，韩国在此问题上的动作十分迅速，明显有意与印尼、哈萨克斯坦等国合作开发稀土资源，而 蒙古国则是他们迈出的第一步。这个稀有金属研究与实验中心的设立，实际上是韩国为了减少对中国稀 土加工的依赖而采取的战略性举措。通过建立该中心，韩国不仅提供技术培训和设备支持，还帮助蒙古 实现从简单的挖矿到加工的产业升级。这样，等到蒙古具备了初步的加工能力，韩国便可以直接从蒙古 获取半成品，绕开中国的加工环节。 在这一过程中，韩国产业通商资源部负责人郑贡延（音译）在讲话中表示，韩国计划在蒙古、乌兹别克 斯坦、越南、印度尼西亚和哈萨克斯坦等地实施供应项目，并已经在蒙古开设了首个研究中心。 这个计划并非偶然。此前，韩国曾与美国一道，与蒙古建立了三边协商机制，旨在打造一个排除中国的 稀土供应链。如果蒙古的产能能 ...

Group 1 - The US and China have reached a ceasefire agreement, but competition remains, with the US planning to increase tariffs on Chinese semiconductor products by June 2027 [1][3] - The US Trade Representative's office announced the end of the 301 trade investigation into China's semiconductor industry, indicating a temporary concession [1][3] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce has expressed strong opposition to the US tariffs on semiconductors, urging dialogue to resolve issues and emphasizing mutual respect and cooperation [3][11] Group 2 - Despite the ceasefire, key rare earth products remain difficult to obtain, which is critical for both high-end and low-end chip production [4][6] - The timing of the tariff increase is strategically aligned with the US's efforts to secure rare earth supply chains and diversify sources away from China [8][9] - The US's delay in implementing semiconductor tariffs until 2027 serves as a buffer to maintain the ceasefire with China while bolstering its own rare earth industry [11]

最近中国通报了一起特殊案件，追回了对外走私的近百吨管制金属，"稀土走私"已经越来越困难。与此同时，中国对美订购的13万吨订单被取消，外界揣测 和五角大楼涉台军售有关，但经常在农业贸易问题上表态的特朗普，这回失声了很多天。 最近一个月中国稀土出口领域又有了很多突发情况，首先是日本企业前些天对外抱怨，说从中国进口的稀土已经全部无法审批，中国这边也没给准确日子。 日本记者专程来问，外交部并没有给明确答复。 日媒大致也猜到，事情很可能和高市早苗对台错误言论有关系，只要她不撤回稀土进口恐怕是免谈。这段时间，日本联合美国等9个国家也签了稀土协议， 准备"长期摆脱对中国供应链"，但远水解不了近渴，日本缺土的情况还是没有任何缓解，日企急得团团转。 在日本正面临困境的时候，中国商务部发言人在18日公布消息，表示已经收到并批准了部分中国出口商提交的通用许可申请。该消息披露之后，外媒一度认 为"日本得到了出口的机会"，日企情况好起来了。 但根据考证，欧盟官员在17日已经确认，中国优化了对欧洲的稀土许可证审批，为进口稀土减少限制。所以现在情况很明显：中国所说的最大可能是欧洲而 不是日本，日企想进口稀土恐怕现在还是"白高兴"一场而已。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The signing of the rare earth supply chain agreement by the U.S. and its allies is primarily a strategic move to challenge China's dominance in the rare earth sector, rather than a simple resource cooperation initiative [1][3][8]. Group 1: Political Intentions - The agreement is seen as a U.S.-led action aimed at weakening China's advantages in resources, technology, and supply chains [3][8]. - The U.S. is anxious about China's overwhelming control over the global rare earth industry, with 91% of rare earth refining and separation capacity concentrated in China [3][10]. - The U.S. aims to establish a supply chain that bypasses China, laying the groundwork for future competition in AI [8][10]. Group 2: Implications for AI and Technology - The U.S. government links the rare earth supply chain to the AI industry, indicating that control over rare earth resources is crucial for competing in AI [10][13]. - The U.S. recognizes that without a stable supply of rare earths, advancements in AI technology cannot be realized [13][15]. - The agreement is expected to benefit U.S. mining, military, and tech sectors, ensuring a stable supply chain for high-tech industries over the next decade [17][20]. Group 3: Global Supply Chain Dynamics - The agreement signifies a shift in global technology dynamics, where control over core resources will be as important as technological advancement [20][21]. - The U.S. is attempting to create a closed-loop supply chain with like-minded allies, injecting political factors into the industry chain [22][26]. - China's response emphasizes the importance of market principles and cooperation, highlighting its critical role in stabilizing the global rare earth supply chain [23][25]. Group 4: Future Competition - The competition between the U.S. and China in key minerals and AI is expected to continue, with China's rare earth advantages stemming from years of industrial accumulation [26][28]. - The outcome of this geopolitical struggle will depend on the strength and completeness of each country's supply chain rather than the size of their political alliances [28].

中日稀土博弈再升级！日本工业命脉被精准"卡"在审批单上 【前言】 当高市早苗的激进言论撞上中国稀土大棒，日本工业界突然发现——他们的生产线，正被一纸审批单"卡"在咽喉。从丰田的电机生产线到索尼的精密仪器， 从铃木的汽车零件到日立的风电设备，所有依赖稀土的关键环节，都在这场没有硝烟的博弈中瑟瑟发抖。这不是科幻片里的资源战争，而是2025年真实上演 的中日经济对决，一招"掐脉"，让日本政府坐立不安。 审批单上的"停滞术"：日企的集体焦虑 11月7日，高市早苗针对台湾问题发表挑衅言论后48小时，日本企业界掀起一场"审批风暴"。东京某电子元件厂负责人山田俊介在采访中透露："过去递交的 出口申请，通常3-5个工作日就能获批，现在至少要等两周，甚至更久。"这种"定格式停滞"并非个例——从大阪到名古屋，从汽车制造到半导体封装，超过 80%的日企反映对华出口审批周期拉长，部分关键材料供应出现断档风险。 数据不会说谎。日本贸易振兴机构统计显示，2025年11月，日本对华出口审批平均耗时较去年同期延长42%，其中稀土相关产品审批延迟率高达68%。更值 得玩味的是，这种变化恰恰发生在高市早苗言论发酵期——日本媒体将此称为"外交钟摆 ...

Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.50%-3.75%[9] - There is increasing internal disagreement within the Fed regarding inflation and employment risks, with 3 out of 12 officials voting against the rate cut[9] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in January 2026 is 24.4% according to CME FedWatch[11] Economic Data - The U.S. JOLTS job openings rose to 7.67 million in October, the highest in five months, while initial jobless claims increased by 44,000, marking the largest rise since 2020[17] - The U.S. fiscal deficit decreased, with November fiscal revenue up 23.75% year-on-year, while spending decreased by 23.82%[17] - Japan's Q3 GDP was revised down from -1.8% to -2.3%, indicating a more significant economic contraction than previously expected[25] Market Trends - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 5 basis points to 4.19%[27] - European bond markets saw overall declines, with the 10-year UK bond yield increasing by 3.9 basis points to 4.52% and the German yield rising by 7 basis points to 2.85%[27] - The Nikkei 225 index in Japan increased by 0.68% year-to-date, reflecting a 27.43% annual growth[6]

Core Insights - The report highlights the signing of an agreement among the US and eight countries, including Japan and Australia, to strengthen the rare earth supply chain [4] - It notes that China's new social financing in November reached 2.49 trillion yuan, with new RMB loans amounting to 390 billion yuan [4] - The report mentions that the UK experienced an unexpected contraction in GDP in October [4] Economic Data - The Baltic Dry Index closed at 2205.00, down 3.88% [5] - The Nasdaq Index closed at 23195.17, down 1.69%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 48458.05, down 0.51% [5] - The ICE Brent crude oil price was reported at 61.22, down 0.10% [5] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index closed at 25976.79, up 1.75% [5] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3889.35, up 0.41% [5]

北京日报客户端消息，12月12日，外交部发言人郭嘉昆主持例行记者会。 法新社记者提问，美方同日本、韩国、澳大利亚等国家就加强稀土供应链签署了协议，并且提出将会同 中方在AI方面展开技术竞争。中方对此有何评论？ 郭嘉昆 资料图。图源：外交部网站 郭嘉昆回应，我们注意到有关报道。各方应该遵守市场经济和公平竞争原则，共同维护全球产供链稳 定。 原标题：美方同日澳等国就加强稀土供应链签署协议，外交部回应 编辑：吴思 责编：吴光亮 审核：吴忠兰 ...