经济观察网记者 刘晓林 国内智能驾驶行业的规模正在被多方数据刷新。正在举行的成都车展上，地平 线宣布，截至2025年8月，征程家族(征程系列处理硬件)的量产出货突破1000万套，成为国内首家达成 千万级出货量的智能驾驶科技企业。同时，地平线创始人兼CEO余凯立下新的目标：未来3—5年， Horizon SuperDrive（简称HSD）城区辅助驾驶系统达成千万量产。 从时间线上来看，征程家族量产出货突破1000万套只用了5年。地平线于2015年成立，2019年，地平线 砍掉其他业务线，以"软硬一体"的技术路线投入智能驾驶领域。从2020年到2025年，地平线陆续发布了 征程2、征程3、征程5和征程6E/M/P芯片及，分别首发量产在长安、理想、埃安和比亚迪等品牌车型 上。目前，比亚迪的"天神之眼"、吉利的"千里浩瀚"和奇瑞的"猎鹰智驾"等头部车企的智能辅助驾驶体 系，都使用了地平线的计算方案。 今年上半年，比亚迪和理想仍然是地平线出货量最大的客户，也是最早搭载地平线征程6M系列产品的 客户，同时是地平线中高阶产品出货量最大的客户，占比超过一半。地平线更多客户的量产车型将从今 年下半年开始投放。 成都车展上，埃安 ...

Core Viewpoint - Company has transformed into a leading supplier of intelligent driving solutions over the past decade, focusing on full-scene intelligent driving solutions and achieving significant revenue growth with a CAGR of 72.2% from 2021 to 2024 [2][36]. Company Overview - Company has established a comprehensive technology stack covering algorithms, dedicated processing architecture (BPU), and development toolchains, positioning itself as a "chip + software" system-level intelligent driving company [4][9]. - The company has formed a complete layout of intelligent driving chip solutions covering levels L2 to L4, with over 310 models targeted by the end of 2024 [4][12]. - The company has built a large and high-quality customer base, including over 40 cooperative automakers and covering more than 290 models [4][36]. Business Segments - The company's revenue is primarily derived from automotive solutions, which accounted for 97% of total revenue in 2024, with product solutions contributing 27.9% and authorized service business contributing 69.1% [28][36]. - Non-automotive solutions, which focus on smart home applications, accounted for 3% of total revenue in 2024 [28][36]. Financial Performance - The company's revenue increased from 467 million RMB in 2021 to 2.384 billion RMB in 2024, with a CAGR of 72.2% [36][41]. - The gross margin has remained stable around 70%, increasing to 79% in 2024 due to the higher contribution from high-margin authorized service business [36][41]. - Operating losses have been controlled, with losses around 2 billion RMB, and the company is expected to achieve breakeven in the coming years as revenue increases and costs are managed [37][41]. Industry Trends - The intelligent driving market is expected to accelerate penetration, with 2025 anticipated to be a pivotal year for "intelligent driving equality," as traditional automakers ramp up their intelligent driving strategies [3][54]. - The price of high-level intelligent driving packages is decreasing, making advanced driving features more accessible to consumers [3][54]. - The integration of intelligent driving technology into mainstream vehicles is expected to become a standard feature, with major automakers like BYD and Xpeng leading the charge [3][54].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Horizon Robotics with a "Buy" rating, setting a target price of HKD 9.28 based on a 31.1X PS for 2025 [1][7][5]. Core Views - Horizon Robotics is a leading supplier of advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) and autonomous driving solutions, focusing on empowering vehicles and robots through intelligent solutions [14][23]. - The company is expected to benefit from the rapid growth of high-level assisted driving functions driven by major automakers like Li Auto, BYD, and Volkswagen [1][2]. - The domestic market for intelligent driving SoC chips is projected to grow significantly, with the market expected to expand from approximately USD 2 billion in 2024 to USD 6.2 billion by 2030 [2]. Company Overview - Horizon Robotics has a complete product matrix and strong software delivery capabilities, with a focus on high-performance chips and proprietary algorithms [3][14]. - The company has achieved significant milestones, including the mass production of various chip series and partnerships with major Tier 1 suppliers [4][14]. - The company’s revenue is projected to grow significantly, with expected revenues of RMB 3.66 billion, RMB 5.54 billion, and RMB 7.82 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 53%, 51%, and 41% [5][6]. Market Dynamics - The intelligent driving industry is entering a high-growth phase, with the penetration rate of advanced intelligent driving expected to increase rapidly [2][20]. - Domestic chip suppliers are well-positioned to meet the demand for cost-effective and reliable solutions, which aligns with the needs of downstream automakers [2][21]. - The report highlights the potential for Horizon Robotics to expand into international markets, particularly as domestic brands seek to innovate globally [21][24]. Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve a chip shipment volume of 4 million, 5.22 million, and 6.93 million units in 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding revenues of RMB 3.66 billion, RMB 5.54 billion, and RMB 7.82 billion [5][6]. - The report anticipates a significant increase in average selling price (ASP) per vehicle as the company scales its operations and introduces new algorithms [20][21]. Competitive Landscape - Horizon Robotics faces competition from international players like Mobileye and NVIDIA, but the report suggests that its domestic advantages in cost and supply chain reliability will be beneficial [4][21]. - The company has established partnerships with leading global Tier 1 suppliers, which may enhance its competitive positioning in the international market [21][24].