Summary of China Resources Beverage Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: China Resources Beverage - **Period**: First half of 2025 Key Financial Performance - **Net Revenue**: Increased by 21.3% year-on-year to CNY 6.206 billion [2][3] - **Net Profit**: Decreased by 28.7% year-on-year to CNY 0.823 billion, with a net profit margin of 13.3% [2][3] - **Gross Margin**: Decreased by 2.6 percentage points to 46.7% [2][3] - **Sales Cost**: Decreased by 14.3% year-on-year to CNY 3.309 billion [3] Industry and Market Dynamics - **Packaging Water Revenue**: Decreased by 23.1% due to industry consumption slowdown, changes in terminal formats, and intensified market competition [3][8] - **Beverage Revenue**: Increased by 21.3%, attributed to brand building, channel distribution, and new product launches [3][8] Strategic Initiatives Product Development - **New Products**: Launched 14 new SKUs across four categories, including large packaging water and pocket-sized drinks [2][5] - **Sustainability**: Developing de-plasticized packaging products to reduce carbon footprint [5] Marketing and Branding - **Sports Marketing**: Collaborated with the Chinese national team and major sports events to enhance brand visibility [7][15] - **Promotional Activities**: Engaged in various marketing campaigns, including partnerships with sports champions and themed events [7][15] Channel Optimization - **Sales Strategy**: Combined online sales, community services, and direct visits to increase consumer purchase rates [10] - **Distributor Model**: Shifted to a specialized distributor model, increasing the number of exclusive distributors by over 50% [10][21] Operational Efficiencies Cost Reduction - **Production and Logistics**: Implemented measures to enhance self-sourcing rates and optimize supply chain management, leading to significant cost savings [12] - **Capacity Expansion**: Planned to increase self-built capacity to over 60% by the end of 2025, with new factories in operation [11][17] Future Outlook - **Packaging Water**: Expected gradual recovery in sales growth in the second half of 2025, with increased channel investments [8][16] - **Beverage Business**: Plans to add three new beverage production lines by 2026 to further enhance operational efficiency and market responsiveness [9][19] Challenges and Responses - **Market Competition**: Addressed challenges from intensified competition and profit pressure through promotional adjustments and resource allocation [12][20] - **Inventory Management**: Increased channel inventory to prepare for peak demand seasons, with expectations of normalization as demand stabilizes [18] Conclusion - **Long-term Strategy**: Focused on sustainable growth through product innovation, enhanced marketing efforts, and optimized distribution channels to navigate a competitive landscape [20][22]

华润饮料(02460)2025年中报的价值被市场低估了。 8月29日，华润饮料发布了2025年中期业绩报告。根据中报显示，2025年上半年，华润饮料营收达62.05亿元，同比减少18.5%;净利润8.23亿元，同比减少 28.7%;毛利率仍微减2.6个百分点，但仍维持在46.7%的高位。 这份中报财报，是在7月盈警之后，投资人得以一窥华润饮料财务全貌的重要窗口。部分投资人因半年报数据而忧心忡忡，然而，长期价值投资者却用实际 行动提前投下信任票——华润饮料当日获得1264.23万港元资金的净流入，悄然完成加仓动作。 长期价值投资者之所以选择加仓，是因为他们看懂了华润饮料这份"阵痛"背后的战略定力、长期韧性与未来爆发力，即： 为实现长期战略目标进行"前置投入"，主动"用利润换空间"，实现从单一包装水向"水+饮料"双轮驱动强势转型的坚定布局，为未来五年的增长埋下伏笔。 水饮双轮驱动，第二曲线逐渐成型 在激烈的市场竞争与行业系统性压力之下，华润饮料展现出了强大的战略定力与创新活力。 2025年上半年，饮料行业面临着前所未有的挑战。行业首次跑输社零增速，PPI同比下降2.8%，实体零售门店数量持续萎缩，便利店、食杂店销 ...

饮料业务：持续推新，积极打造第二曲线。25H1 公司饮料业务实现收入9.55 亿元，同比+21.29%，占 营收比重+5.1pct 至15.4%。25H1 公司推出14 款新品SKU，致力于第二曲线打造：1）茶饮料方面，重 点培育至本清润、佐味茶事、愿事之茗、午后红茶；2）果汁方面，重点发力蜜水和假日系列；3）其他 饮料方面，主要包括运动饮料魔力和咖啡饮料焰焙。 收入承压叠加产品结构变化，利润率下行。25H1 公司实现毛利率46.67%，同比-2.60pct，主要系收入下 降和产品结构变化的影响所致。 25H1 公司销售/ 管理/ 研发费用率同比+2.92/+0.43/+0.00pct 至30.36%/2.33%/0.24% 。25H1 实现归母净 利率12.97% ， 同比-1.84pct。 机构：国盛证券 研究员：李梓语/黄越 事件：公司发布2025 年中报，2025H1 公司实现营业收入62.06 亿元，同比-18.52%；实现归母净利润 8.05 亿元，同比-28.63%。 包装水业务：经营短期承压，多品牌多水种发展。25H1 公司包装水业务实现收入52.51 亿元，同 比-23.11%，占营收比重- ...

机构：国盛证券 研究员：李梓语/黄越 费用投放加大，调整产品组合，业绩短期承压。公司业绩低于此前市场预期的核心原因主要系：1）公 司基于中长期发展规划，2025 年上半年策略性增加营销资源投入、调整产品组合、逐步推动渠道调 整，对利润表现有阶段性影响。2）公司通过采取适当政策以保障终端市场稳定，实现非水饮料第二增 长曲线推新和打造，并积极采取成本控制措施，优化运营管理，从而抵消部分该等负面影响。 水饮双轮驱动可期，成本红利有望释放。公司作为纯净水行业的龙头，地位稳固，坚持渠道精耕、网点 下沉、区域拓展，重点发力餐饮、家庭等增量渠道；同时，公司积极培育第二子品牌本优系列，聚焦天 然水和矿泉水赛道，包装水份额回升整体可期。饮料端，公司重点打造至本清润、蜜水、假日、魔力等 具备大单品潜力的产品，在低基数的基础下，第二曲线有望实现高增。此外，公司净利润率提升路径明 确，一方面源于自产比例的持续提升，另一方面公司代工成本加速压缩，上下游产业链延展，同时叠加 PET 和白砂糖等成本红利影响，业绩弹性有望进一步释放。 分红预期积极，重视股东回报。董事会预期截至2025 年上半年基于宣派中期股息，具体反映了1）股东 回报承诺 ...

Investment Rating - The report downgrades the investment rating to "Accumulate" from "Buy" due to short-term performance pressure [3][6]. Core Views - The company is expected to see a net profit decline of 20% to 30% in the first half of 2025 compared to 2024, primarily due to increased marketing investments and product adjustments aimed at long-term growth [1]. - Despite short-term challenges, the company maintains a strong position in the pure water industry and is focusing on expanding its market presence in the restaurant and household segments [2]. - The company is actively working on enhancing its product portfolio, particularly in the beverage sector, with a focus on high-potential products [2]. - The net profit margin is expected to improve due to a higher proportion of self-produced products and reduced outsourcing costs, alongside cost benefits from raw materials [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2025, the company anticipates a revenue of 12,778 million RMB, a decrease of 5.5% year-on-year, with net profit expected to be 1,299 million RMB, reflecting a decline of 20.6% [5][10]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected at 0.54 RMB, down from 0.68 RMB in 2024 [5][10]. Market Strategy - The company is focusing on channel refinement and market expansion, particularly in the food and beverage sectors, to drive growth [2][3]. - The introduction of new products under the "Ben You" series is aimed at capturing market share in the natural and mineral water segments [2]. Shareholder Returns - The board is committed to providing sustainable returns to shareholders, with plans to declare interim dividends based on a solid financial position and retained earnings [2].

Group 1 - The company is a leading player in the domestic packaged drinking water industry, becoming the second-largest packaged drinking water and the largest pure water enterprise in China, with its core brand "Yibao" maintaining a significant market share [1] - The company is transitioning from a single product focus to a multi-product platform, which is expected to drive future growth [1] - The revenue from the company's large and medium-sized bottled water segment is projected to reach 12.12 billion yuan in 2024, accounting for 34.1% of total revenue, with a CAGR of 9.9% from 2021 to 2024 [1] Group 2 - The company is expanding its production capacity to support its national strategy, with new factories and production lines established in key regions, which will enhance overall capacity and reduce supply bottlenecks [2] - The company is increasing its self-built production capacity, reducing reliance on outsourcing, and optimizing its supply chain to lower packaging material costs, leading to an expected gross margin improvement of approximately 2.6 percentage points to 47.3% in 2024 [2] Group 3 - The company has a strong channel network and sales team, covering over two million retail outlets across the country, with a retail terminal coverage rate increasing from 50.6% in 2021 to 77.2% in 2024 [3] - The company has achieved significant growth in e-commerce channels and lower-tier markets, with coverage in third-tier cities and below rising from 51.2% to 57.2% from 2021 to 2024 [3] Group 4 - Revenue projections for the company are 14.54 billion yuan in 2025, 15.52 billion yuan in 2026, and 16.54 billion yuan in 2027, with expected growth rates of 7.5%, 6.7%, and 6.6% respectively [4] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 1.99 billion yuan in 2025, 2.23 billion yuan in 2026, and 2.52 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding EPS growth of 21.5%, 14.5%, and 10.9% [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the beverage industry, indicating a positive outlook for leading companies in the sector [5]. Core Insights - The beverage industry is expected to continue experiencing intense competition, with leading companies like Nongfu Spring and China Resources Beverage likely to benefit from increased market share [3]. - Nongfu Spring is projected to see steady growth in its bottled water business and sustained high growth in its beverage products, supported by strong brand, channel, and product capabilities [1]. - China Resources Beverage, as a leader in the purified water sector, is focusing on channel expansion and product development, which is expected to enhance its market share and profitability [2]. Summary by Sections Nongfu Spring - The company is expected to recover its bottled water market share and potentially exceed previous highs due to its strong brand and product capabilities [1]. - The beverage segment is diversified with high-growth products like sugar-free tea "Oriental Leaf" and functional drinks "Scream" and "Power Emperor Vitamin Water," which align with health trends [1]. - As of July 21, 2025, the company's PE(TTM) is 38.01X, with a five-year average of 54.25X, indicating potential for valuation recovery [1]. China Resources Beverage - The company is solidifying its position in the purified water market while expanding into new channels such as dining and family segments [2]. - The introduction of sub-brands focusing on natural and mineral water is expected to drive market share recovery [2]. - The company's PE(TTM) is 17.97X, suggesting a significant valuation gap compared to Nongfu Spring, with potential for both performance and valuation improvement [2]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on Nongfu Spring and China Resources Beverage due to their competitive advantages and growth potential [3]. - Additionally, it suggests monitoring Eastroc Beverage for its strong growth attributes and Uni-President China for its high dividend yield [3].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for China Resources Beverage [3][8][10]. Core Views - China Resources Beverage, as a leading bottled water company, benefits from both revenue and profit growth. The company is expected to enjoy the industry's penetration rate increase and has made initial progress in its beverage business with the "Zhiben Qingrun" chrysanthemum tea series. The company is projected to improve its profitability through various cost-reduction strategies [3][8][29]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - China Resources Beverage is a subsidiary of China Resources Group, focusing on bottled water and beverage businesses. Its core brand "Yibao" is a leading bottled water brand in China, with a market share of 18.4% in 2023 [5][15]. Bottled Water Business - The bottled water market in China has grown from 152.6 billion yuan in 2018 to 215 billion yuan in 2023, with a CAGR of 7.1%. The company aims to increase its self-production rate from 32% in 2023 to over 60% by the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan, which is expected to significantly enhance profitability [6][8][29]. Beverage Business - The company has been exploring the beverage sector since 2011, launching various products. The "Zhiben Qingrun" series has gained a market share of 38.5% in 2023. The company aims to improve channel efficiency and reduce sales expenses through continuous product launches and increased distribution [7][8][29]. Financial Forecast and Investment Advice - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 140.7 billion yuan, 150.6 billion yuan, and 161.4 billion yuan in 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively. Corresponding net profits are projected to be 19.2 billion yuan, 22.4 billion yuan, and 26.1 billion yuan, with EPS of 0.8, 0.93, and 1.09 yuan, respectively [8][29].