Group 1: Transformer Industry - The U.S. market is experiencing a transformer shortage due to electricity constraints impacting AI computing power expansion, with delivery times for transformers increasing from 30-60 weeks to 115-130 weeks, and large transformers taking 2.3-4 years [1] - North America is projected to face a hard electricity capacity and energy shortfall by 2026/2027, necessitating accelerated power and grid construction, with transformer demand expected to grow at an annual rate of 30% [1] - Chinese transformer companies are positioned to fill the gap in North America due to their complete supply chain, cost advantages, and UL/CSA certifications, leading to significant growth in overseas orders for leading firms [1] Group 2: Brain-Computer Interface - A significant breakthrough has been achieved in the second invasive brain-computer interface clinical trial in China, enabling users to control devices with their thoughts at speeds comparable to typical smartphone and computer usage [2][3] - The brain-computer interface industry in China is expected to see substantial development by 2025, with a market size projected to exceed 5.5 billion yuan by 2027, and global medical applications potentially reaching $40 billion to $145 billion by 2030-2040 [3] Group 3: Edge AI - ByteDance's Volcano Engine is set to hold a major technology conference on December 18-19, showcasing new AI hardware and tools, which is expected to drive significant growth in the edge AI market [4] - The edge AI market in China is anticipated to grow from under 200 billion yuan in 2023 to over 1.9 trillion yuan by 2028, with an annual growth rate of 58% driven by hardware improvements, application expansion, and policy support [4] Group 4: Sodium Battery - CATL's sodium-ion battery is expected to begin mass production by December 2025, featuring a high energy density of 175 Wh/kg and a lifespan exceeding 10,000 cycles, marking a significant advancement in battery technology [5][6] - The sodium battery industry is transitioning from R&D to commercialization, with 2026 being a critical year for scaling production and shipments [6] Group 5: Aircraft Maintenance - The aircraft maintenance industry in Hainan is experiencing unprecedented growth due to the benefits of the free trade port policy, with maintenance capacity expected to reach around 700 aircraft annually [7] - Hainan's unique geographical advantages and policy incentives are attracting foreign airlines for aircraft maintenance, potentially saving them 10% to 15% in maintenance costs [7] Group 6: Emotional Interaction Robots - Sichuan's humanoid robot "AIQ," designed for emotional interaction, has been launched, utilizing advanced emotional computing technology to enhance human-robot communication [8] - The introduction of "AIQ" is expected to draw significant market attention due to its innovative approach to emotional interaction and communication [8] Group 7: Phosphate Fertilizer - A meeting organized by key agricultural associations in China emphasized the importance of maintaining high production rates of phosphate fertilizers to ensure supply stability and price control [9] - The rising sulfur prices have impacted the phosphate fertilizer market, with significant price increases observed in recent months [9] Group 8: Hard Disk Drives - The mechanical hard disk market is experiencing a price increase of approximately 4% in Q4, the largest rise in eight quarters, driven by renewed demand from the PC market [10] - The shift towards domestic CPUs and operating systems in China is boosting HDD installation demand as users seek reliable long-term data storage solutions [10] Group 9: Satellite Internet - The UK has approved a new regulatory framework for mobile satellite services, allowing mobile network operators to partner with satellite operators for direct satellite connectivity [11] - The satellite communication sector is transitioning from specialized equipment to mainstream applications, with significant potential in emergency services and outdoor operations [11]

Core Insights - The commercial aerospace industry in China is entering a new era, with significant advancements in capabilities and a solid foundation for the next decade [2][7] Industry Developments - As of December 12, 2025, China has successfully launched 16 groups of satellites for the National Network Constellation (GW constellation) and 6 groups for the Qianfan Constellation, marking a substantial increase in launch frequency and the number of satellites in orbit [3] - The first batch of network satellites was mass-produced by private company Galaxy Aerospace, significantly reducing the satellite development cycle by 80% and achieving an annual production capacity of over 100 satellites weighing 1000 kg [3] - The Blue Arrow Aerospace's Zhuque-3 rocket conducted its first complete recovery test, marking a significant step towards reusable rocket technology in China, despite the recovery test being unsuccessful [3] - The Hainan Commercial Aerospace Launch Site has successfully conducted 9 launches since its opening at the end of 2024, demonstrating improved operational efficiency with a high-density launch success [3] Regulatory and Market Changes - All three major telecom operators in China have obtained licenses for satellite mobile communication services, enabling them to legally conduct satellite direct connection services [4] - The introduction of the fifth set of listing standards on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board allows unprofitable but technologically advanced commercial aerospace companies to go public, enhancing market confidence and investment enthusiasm [5] - Notable funding rounds include 430 million yuan for Aerospace Yuxing, 700 million yuan for Star Glory, 2.4 billion yuan for Star River Power, and nearly 2.5 billion yuan for Tianbing Technology [5] Future Outlook - The year 2025 is seen as a pivotal year for the commercial aerospace industry in China, transitioning from mere technical demonstrations to building a sustainable commercial aerospace ecosystem [7] - The establishment of the Commercial Aerospace Administration and the "Action Plan for High-Quality and Safe Development of Commercial Aerospace (2025-2027)" provides clear regulatory guidance and support for the industry [7][8] - The Action Plan outlines development directions for various segments of the aerospace industry, emphasizing low-cost, reliable, and reusable commercial launch vehicles [7][8]

No.202504 无线经济发展研究报告 （2025 年） 中国信息通信研究院 2025年11月 版权声明 本报告版权属于中国信息通信研究院，并受法律保护。 转载、摘编或利用其它方式使用本报告文字或者观点的， 应注明"来源：中国信息通信研究院"。违反上述声明者， 本院将追究其相关法律责任。 前 言 无线经济作为数字经济的关键构成，是创新活力最盛、增长势 头最猛、辐射范围最广的领域之一，在强化数字经济发展新动能、 夯实发展韧性、推动经济实现良性循环方面作用显著，更是推动产 业深度转型、拓展经济增长空间的重要依托。回顾 2024 年，我国无 线经济整体规模持续攀升，在移动通信、低空经济、卫星互联网、 智能网联汽车、具身智能等领域成果丰硕，从技术创新到产业落地， 无线经济正以多元场景应用推动数字经济与实体经济深度融合，在 塑造中国产业发展新优势中发挥了重要作用。具体表现在： 一是无线经济以进促稳。2024 年，我国无线经济规模达到 7.9 万亿元，同比增长 11.1%，占我国 GDP 比重 5.9%，有效支撑数字经 济稳定增长。 二是无线产业和赋能齐头并进。2024 年，我国无线产业规模达 到 3.4 万亿元，占无 ...

Core Viewpoint - The satellite industry is at a critical turning point, with significant growth potential driven by technological advancements and the need for independent capabilities in the current international competitive environment [1][5]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The satellite industry ETF (159218) has seen a substantial increase of 340.74% in scale this year, reflecting strong market interest and investment [4]. - The net subscription for the satellite industry ETF reached 27 million units in a single day, with cumulative inflows exceeding 40 million yuan over the past three days [1]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - The necessity to secure orbital and frequency resources is highlighted as a key driver for the development of the satellite industry, with major countries competing fiercely under the "first come, first served" principle [2]. - The global satellite launch volume is expected to grow from hundreds to over a thousand annually, indicating a potential for more than tenfold growth [3]. Group 3: Technological Advancements - The mobile direct-to-satellite application market is identified as the most promising area for satellite internet, particularly in mobile phones and automobiles [4]. - Current high-orbit satellite services have limitations such as limited communication capacity and higher latency, but the deployment of low-orbit satellite networks is expected to enhance user experience significantly by providing lower latency and more stable signals [4]. Group 4: Policy and Industry Support - The Chinese government is actively improving policies related to satellite internet applications, including issuing satellite communication operation licenses to major telecom operators [5]. - The domestic satellite internet sector has entered a new phase of high-density and high-frequency launches since late July to early August [5].

Core Viewpoint - The launch of satellite communication services by Chinese telecom operators marks a significant advancement in communication technology, enabling direct satellite connectivity for mobile phones and vehicles, which is crucial during emergencies [1][2][5]. Group 1: Satellite Communication Development - China Telecom has pioneered the commercial service of "mobile direct satellite connection," overcoming significant technical challenges to provide this service to consumers [2][4]. - China Unicom has also received a license to operate satellite mobile communication services, further expanding the availability of satellite connectivity across the country [1][5]. - The integration of satellite communication with terrestrial networks is seen as a key feature of the upcoming 6G era, enhancing the resilience and reach of communication services [7][9]. Group 2: Technological Innovations - The introduction of eSIM technology is transforming device connectivity, allowing for more flexible and secure communication solutions across various devices [9][10]. - The proliferation of IoT applications, such as smart water meters and livestock tracking, demonstrates the practical benefits of enhanced connectivity in everyday life [10][12]. - The collaboration between telecom companies and technology providers is driving innovation in communication infrastructure, with a focus on 5G and future 6G technologies [16][20]. Group 3: Economic and Environmental Impact - The shared infrastructure model between China Telecom and China Unicom has resulted in significant cost savings and reduced carbon emissions, showcasing a sustainable approach to network expansion [18][20]. - The development of domestic CPU technology is crucial for supporting the growing demands of AI and other advanced applications, indicating a shift towards self-sufficiency in critical technology sectors [20].

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology of China has issued satellite mobile communication business licenses to the three major telecom operators, marking a significant step towards the commercialization of satellite communication services in China [1][2]. Group 1: Company Developments - China Mobile has received a satellite mobile communication business license, allowing it to conduct services such as direct satellite connections for mobile phones, enhancing emergency communication, maritime communication, and services in remote areas [1]. - China Mobile is actively expanding its satellite communication services, including satellite fixed broadband and satellite IoT, and has launched the Beidou SMS service nationwide [3]. - China Unicom has launched mobile direct satellite services and successfully deployed low-orbit satellites in collaboration with Zhejiang Space Dao Yu Technology Co., Ltd. [4]. - China Telecom has introduced mobile direct satellite services globally and plans to launch "automobile direct satellite" services in 2024, leveraging the self-built Tiantong satellite mobile communication system [4]. Group 2: Industry Trends - The satellite internet industry is on the verge of large-scale application, with the potential for a trillion-yuan market as satellite launch costs decrease and low-orbit satellite networks are deployed [2]. - The issuance of satellite mobile communication business licenses to all three major telecom operators is expected to accelerate the commercialization of mobile satellite communication services and reduce costs associated with promoting satellite services [4]. - The integration of satellite communication systems with existing terrestrial communication networks is crucial for the development of a comprehensive satellite communication ecosystem [4].

Group 1 - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) has issued satellite mobile communication business licenses to China Mobile, following China Telecom and China Unicom, enabling them to conduct satellite direct connection services and enhance applications in emergency communication, maritime communication, and remote area communication [1][2] - The MIIT aims to optimize market access for satellite communication and strengthen regulatory oversight to promote high-quality development of the satellite communication industry, supporting the construction of a strong network, aerospace, and digital China [1][3] - China Telecom launched satellite direct connection services globally in September 2023, collaborating with major brands to introduce approximately 30 terminal devices supporting this feature by April 2025 [2][3] Group 2 - The MIIT's guidelines encourage telecom operators to explore the potential of high-orbit satellites like Tiantong and Beidou, promoting the direct connection of mobile devices to satellites and expanding high-speed data services based on low-orbit satellite internet [3][4] - China has established two major autonomous high-orbit satellite systems, Tiantong and Beidou, which theoretically can achieve global coverage with just three satellites, although the return on investment is long [4] - The development of low-orbit satellite constellations is expected to enhance overall service capabilities and expand coverage, creating a synergistic effect with high and medium-orbit satellites [4]

Core Insights - The introduction of satellite communication services by major Chinese telecom operators marks a significant advancement in emergency communication capabilities, particularly during natural disasters [1][3][4] - The integration of 6G technology, eSIM innovations, and IoT applications is driving the development of a more interconnected and intelligent society, enhancing various industries [1][6][7] Group 1: Satellite Communication Services - China Telecom has launched the world's first commercial satellite direct connection service for mobile phones, overcoming significant technical challenges [3] - China Unicom has received a license for satellite mobile communication services and successfully launched four low-orbit satellites, enabling nationwide mobile direct connection services [3][4] - The expansion of satellite communication services is expected to benefit a wider population and empower various industries, particularly in emergency response scenarios [4] Group 2: Technological Innovations - The eSIM technology is revolutionizing device connectivity, enhancing security and user autonomy while facilitating the evolution of device forms [6] - The application of IoT solutions, such as smart water meters and livestock tracking, demonstrates the practical benefits of connected technologies in resource management [6][7] - The ongoing development of 5G-A networks is set to further enhance smart city initiatives and industrial automation, driving digital transformation across sectors [7] Group 3: Infrastructure Development - China has established the world's largest and most advanced information communication network, with over 464 million 5G base stations and 30.53 million gigabit ports [8][9] - Collaborative efforts between major telecom companies have led to the creation of the largest and fastest 5G SA shared network, significantly reducing investment costs and carbon emissions [9] - The focus on domestic CPU development aims to address supply chain challenges and support the growing demand for artificial intelligence applications [10]

Core Viewpoint - The emergence of satellite mobile communication services in China marks a significant advancement in technology, enhancing connectivity and safety during emergencies, and paving the way for a new era of integrated communication systems [1][2][3] Group 1: Satellite Communication Development - China Telecom has launched the world's first commercial satellite direct connection service for mobile phones, overcoming significant technical challenges [2] - China Unicom has received a license for satellite mobile communication services and successfully launched four low-orbit satellites, expanding the availability of satellite services [2][3] - The integration of satellite communication with terrestrial networks is seen as a key feature of the upcoming 6G era, enhancing disaster response capabilities and everyday connectivity [3][4] Group 2: Technological Innovations - The introduction of eSIM technology is revolutionizing device connectivity, allowing for more secure and flexible communication solutions across various devices [4][5] - The proliferation of IoT applications, such as smart water management and livestock tracking, demonstrates the practical benefits of advanced connectivity solutions [5][6] - The development of 5G-A networks is expected to further empower industries, facilitating digital transformation and enhancing user experiences [5][6] Group 3: Infrastructure and Investment - China has established the largest and most advanced information communication network globally, with over 464 million 5G base stations and significant investments in network infrastructure [6][7] - Collaborative efforts between major telecom companies have led to the creation of the world's largest and fastest 5G SA shared network, resulting in substantial cost savings and environmental benefits [6][7] - The focus on domestic CPU development by companies like China Electronics is addressing supply chain challenges and supporting the growth of AI and other advanced technologies [7]

Core Insights - SpaceX's acquisition of EchoStar's 50MHz spectrum for $17 billion marks a strategic positioning in the global mobile satellite competition [1] - This move allows SpaceX to reduce reliance on terrestrial operators and enables direct satellite connectivity for regular mobile phones through embedded chip technology [1] - The service capabilities are being enhanced from text messaging to voice and streaming data [1] Company Developments - SpaceX is adopting a hybrid model of "self-operated in remote areas + partnerships in urban areas" to build a global satellite communication capability [1] - The acquisition aligns with China's recent policy initiatives supporting mobile satellite connectivity, accelerating satellite constellation networking and commercialization of private rockets [1] Industry Outlook - The commercial space industry is poised for growth opportunities due to these developments [1] - However, challenges such as spectrum scarcity, technology maturity, and sustainability of business models remain critical variables [1]