Group 1 - The flu season in Shanghai has started earlier this year, entering the peak period from late November to early January, with the dominant strain being H3N2 [1] - The so-called "K strain" circulating online is a variant of the H3N2 strain, not a new virus, as confirmed by health officials [1] - The current flu virus activity is at a high level, with multiple respiratory diseases posing risks due to fluctuating temperatures [1] Group 2 - Community health service centers in Shanghai are operating seven days a week to optimize testing and early identification of flu cases [2] - Medical institutions are enhancing their capacity for flu treatment, ensuring that fever clinics in secondary hospitals are fully operational and equipped [2] - The city is improving the medical process, including pre-examination and triage, and utilizing "Internet + healthcare" for online consultations [2] Group 3 - It is recommended to get the flu vaccine before the season starts, ideally in October, as it takes 2 to 4 weeks to develop antibodies [3] - The flu vaccine can provide 70%-80% protection against severe illness, even if administered during the peak season [3] - Antiviral medications are categorized into two types: neuraminidase inhibitors and RNA polymerase inhibitors, with the best effect when taken within 48 hours of infection [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates a rising trend in flu activity in China since November, suggesting a short-term focus on the flu market [1] - The report highlights a significant structural recovery trend in the pharmaceutical sector after a prolonged valuation adjustment, with continued optimism for pharmaceutical innovation and investment recovery [1] - The report notes that the positive trend in the secondary market is expected to drive a rebound in primary market financing, with ongoing favorable conditions for CXO and upstream sectors [1] Group 2 - The report states that the positive rate of flu virus among outpatient and emergency cases is approximately 45%, predominantly driven by the H3N2 strain [1] - It mentions that the ILI% reported by sentinel hospitals in southern provinces is 7.8%, higher than the previous week and above the levels of 2022 and 2024, but lower than 2023 [1] - The report provides data on the main pathogens detected in flu-like cases, with influenza virus accounting for 44.8% of the samples tested [1] Group 3 - The report discusses various antiviral drugs for flu treatment, with significant sales growth for Oseltamivir and Baloxavir during the week of November 15-21, with increases of 237% and 180% year-on-year, respectively [2] - It highlights the importance of flu vaccination as a preventive measure, with a total of 373 batches of flu vaccines approved for release since January 2025, including 230 batches of quadrivalent vaccines, a 3% increase year-on-year [2] - The report notes a decline in the approval of trivalent vaccines, with 143 batches approved, representing an 18% year-on-year decrease [2]

Core Viewpoint - The flu season has intensified, leading to increased consultations and concerns about the effectiveness of the antiviral drug Oseltamivir, particularly regarding its resistance rates [1]. Group 1: Efficacy of Oseltamivir - Current data suggests that while there may be a slight decrease in sensitivity of Oseltamivir against H1N1 and H3N2 strains, the resistance rate is not significantly high, with WHO reporting it at under 2% [1]. - In China, the latest monitoring indicates that 3.99% of A(H1N1)pdm09 strains show reduced sensitivity to neuraminidase inhibitors, but this should not cause excessive alarm [1]. - Oseltamivir remains a crucial first-line treatment for influenza despite some cases of reduced sensitivity due to improper use of the medication [1]. Group 2: Treatment Recommendations - If a patient does not show improvement after 48 hours of taking Oseltamivir, it may be necessary to consider potential resistance and conduct sensitivity testing [1]. - Alternatives to Oseltamivir include RNA polymerase inhibitors such as Baloxavir, Laninamivir (for H1N1), and Favipiravir (for cases where other antivirals are ineffective) [2]. - For severe cases or patients unable to take oral medication, inhaled drugs like Zanamivir or intravenous options like Peramivir can be utilized [2]. Group 3: Guidelines for Use - It is advised that patients with symptoms should use antiviral medications under the guidance of healthcare professionals to ensure proper usage [2]. - The standard treatment course for Oseltamivir is 5 days, with a recommended dosage of 75mg twice daily for adults and adolescents over 13 [2]. - Vaccination against influenza is emphasized as an effective preventive measure, ideally completed before October each year to reduce the risk of complications and resistance [2].

Core Insights - The flu activity in China is rapidly increasing, with the overall flu epidemic at a moderate level, and Beijing has entered the peak period of flu [1][3] Group 1: Flu Situation and Monitoring - The Beijing Municipal Health Commission reported that the flu has reached its peak, with the circulating strain being H3N2, which is still below historical peaks compared to previous seasons [3] - A "three-medical linkage" monitoring and scheduling mechanism has been established by the Beijing Municipal Health Commission, Medical Insurance Bureau, and Drug Administration to ensure a balanced supply and demand of flu medications [3] Group 2: Vaccination and Preventive Measures - The flu vaccine in Beijing will continue to be available for self-paid vaccination until the end of February 2026, with various methods for citizens to make appointments [3] - Preventive medication is recommended primarily for high-risk individuals who have not been vaccinated or are in close contact with confirmed cases, with a recommended usage window of within 48 hours post-exposure [5] Group 3: Pediatric Care and Hospital Response - The Beijing Children's Hospital has seen a significant increase in respiratory disease consultations since November, with a 20% rise in patient visits noted in the third week of November [7] - The hospital has increased its medical staff by approximately 15% and is providing online consultations to reduce the risk of cross-infection during peak times [7][8] Group 4: Future Actions - The Beijing Municipal Health Commission will continue to closely monitor the disease's spread and ensure medical service support for children's respiratory diseases [9]

Core Insights - The flu positivity rate in China has approached 45%, indicating an overall epidemic level, with some provinces reaching high epidemic levels [2] - The predominant circulating strain is the H3N2 subtype, accounting for over 95% of cases, leading to increased demand for antiviral medications [2] - The sales of antiviral drugs have surged, with a reported increase of over 150% in northern cities like Shenyang and Changchun, and a 63% rise in testing orders on e-commerce platforms [2] Antiviral Drugs Overview - There are six types of antiviral drugs for influenza A in China: Baloxavir, Peramivir, Oseltamivir, Zanamivir, Rimantadine, and Onradivir [3] - Baloxavir is the first small molecule RNA polymerase inhibitor approved for clinical trials in China [3] Market Dynamics - As of March 2024, 66 companies in China have received 106 approvals for antiviral drugs, with Oseltamivir accounting for approximately 70% of the approvals [9] - The market is largely dominated by foreign companies holding core patents, with only a few domestic companies like Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical having original research capabilities [6][8] Impact on Schools - Schools have become significant sites for flu transmission, with a notable increase in reported outbreaks in childcare institutions and schools, particularly among children aged 5-14 [12]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight (Maintain)" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the flu season in China may arrive earlier this year, with different circulating strains compared to last year, indicating a potential increase in demand for antiviral medications and vaccines related to respiratory diseases [4][6] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the market for respiratory disease medications, particularly antiviral drugs and flu vaccines, due to the anticipated rise in flu cases [5][6] Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Overview - The report focuses on the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry, particularly in the context of respiratory diseases and flu medications [1] Market Trends - The flu season is expected to start earlier this year, with the predominant strain being H3N2, which may lead to lower immunity in the population compared to last year [4] - The report notes that acute respiratory infections pose a significant health risk, especially with the changing virus strains [4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies involved in respiratory disease medications such as Teva Pharmaceutical, Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical, Yiling Pharmaceutical, and others [6] - It also recommends paying attention to flu vaccine manufacturers like Hualan Biological Engineering and Baike Biological [6]