三花智控（002050）(02050)午前拉升超6%，截至发稿，涨6.09%，报36.24港元，成交额6.26亿港元。 消息面上，三花智控此前发布2025年业绩预告，预期2025年归属于上市公司股东的净利润约38.74 亿-46.49亿元，同比增长25%-50%；扣除非经常性损益后的净利润约36.79亿-46.15亿元，同比增长 18%-48%。申万宏源研报指出，以业绩预告增速区间中位数进行推算，预计25Q4可实现归属于上市公 司股东的净利润10.19亿元，同比增长27.8%，可实现扣非后归母净利润9.04亿元，同比增长4.0%，整体 表现亮眼。 东吴证券表示，海外巨头25H2软硬件持续迭代，定点&发布在即，该行认为当前主要关节硬件已基本定 型。据此前计划，5年内实现年产100万台目标，公司长期积极配合产品开发，主供地位稳固。若按照 100万台出货测算，执行器总成5万元，净利率10%，公司份额70%，可贡献35亿元利润，弹性巨大。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，三花智控(02050)午前拉升超6%，截至发稿，涨6.09%，报36.24港元，成交额6.26亿 港元。 东吴证券表示，海外巨头25H2软硬件持续迭代，定点&发布在即，该行认为当前主要关节硬件已基本定 型。据此前计划，5年内实现年产100万台目标，公司长期积极配合产品开发，主供地位稳固。若按照 100万台出货测算，执行器总成5万元，净利率10%，公司份额70%，可贡献35亿元利润，弹性巨大。 消息面上，三花智控此前发布2025年业绩预告，预期2025年归属于上市公司股东的净利润约38.74 亿-46.49亿元，同比增长25%-50%；扣除非经常性损益后的净利润约36.79亿-46.15亿元，同比增长 18%-48%。申万宏源研报指出，以业绩预告增速区间中位数进行推算，预计25Q4可实现归属于上市公 司股东的净利润10.19亿元，同比增长27.8%，可实现扣非后归母净利润9.04亿元，同比增长4.0%，整体 表现亮眼。 ...

事件：公司发布2025 年度业绩预告，预计实现归母净利润38.7~46.5 亿元，同比+25%~50%，扣非净利 润36.8~46.1 亿元，同比+18%~48%。根据中值计算，对应25Q4 归母净利润10.19 亿元，同比+28%，扣 非净利润10.64 亿元，同比+22%。传统制冷&汽车协同发力，业绩略超市场预期。 据此前计划，5 年内实现年产100 万台目标，公司长期积极配合产品开发，主供地位稳固。若按照100 万台出货测算，执行器总成5 万元，净利率10%，公司份额70%，可贡献35 亿元利润，弹性巨大。 盈利预测与投资评级： 我们上修公司25-27 年归母净利润至42.1/50.9/67.9 亿元（原值41.6/49.0/65.9 亿 元），同比+36%/+21%/+33%，对应PE 分别为45x、38x、28x，考虑到机器人空间广阔，维持"买入"评 级。 风险提示：人形机器人量产不及预期，新能源车销量不及预期等。 传统制冷需求稳健增长、数据中心&储能贡献增量、我们预计25Q4 板块收入同增10-20%、净利润同增 30-40%。 1）国内方面，Q4 虽国补有所退坡，但"双11"、"双12"促销加码 ...

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·家电零部件Ⅱ 三花智控（002050） 2025 年业绩预告点评：业绩略超市场预期， 机器人量产在即 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 24,558 | 27,947 | 33,505 | 40,056 | 50,683 | | 同比（%） | 15.04 | 13.80 | 19.89 | 19.55 | 26.53 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 2,921 | 3,099 | 4,210 | 5,093 | 6,794 | | 同比（%） | 13.51 | 6.10 | 35.85 | 20.98 | 33.39 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.69 | 0.74 | 1.00 | 1.21 | 1.61 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 65.43 | 61.67 | 45.40 | 37.52 | 28.13 | [Table_Tag] [T ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance slightly exceeded market expectations, with Q1-Q3 2025 revenue of 240.3 billion yuan, up 16.9% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 32.4 billion yuan, up 40.9% year-on-year [7] - Traditional refrigeration demand remains stable, while the company is expanding into new fields such as data center liquid cooling, which is expected to contribute significantly to revenue growth [7] - The humanoid robot production is set to begin, with a strong position in the supply chain and significant profit potential [7] - Effective control of operating expenses has led to rapid growth in operating cash flow [7] - The company is expected to maintain a net profit growth rate of 34% in 2025, with a projected net profit of 41.6 billion yuan [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to reach 33.5 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 19.89% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 4.16 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 34.24% [1] - The latest diluted EPS is forecasted to be 0.99 yuan per share in 2025 [1] - The P/E ratio is projected to be 51.82 in 2025 [1] - The company anticipates maintaining a gross margin of approximately 27.81% in 2025 [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for 德昌电机控股 (Deka Motor Holdings) [6][12]. Core Insights - 德昌电机控股 has unique advantages in developing humanoid robot components, driven by its strong position in the automotive motor sector and the rapid growth of data center liquid cooling systems [2][30]. - The company is expected to see significant growth in net profit, with projections of $281 million, $322 million, and $355 million for the fiscal years 2026, 2027, and 2028, respectively, representing year-on-year growth rates of 7%, 15%, and 10% [14][15]. Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for 德昌电机控股 are as follows: - 2025: $3,648 million - 2026: $3,751 million - 2027: $4,097 million - 2028: $4,476 million - Gross profit and net profit forecasts are: - Gross profit for 2025: $843 million, with a gross margin of 23% - Net profit for 2025: $263 million, with a net margin of 7.2% [4][15][26]. Company Overview - 德昌电机控股's main business segments include automotive motors (84% of revenue) and industrial motors (16%) [15][19]. - The company has a stable revenue and profit growth history, with a net profit of approximately $263 million for the fiscal year 2025, reflecting a 15% increase year-on-year [24][26]. Humanoid Robot Development Advantages - The company possesses significant capabilities in humanoid robot components, including actuators and joints, leveraging its expertise in motor design and manufacturing [30][34]. - 德昌电机控股's joint ventures with 上海机电 (Shanghai Electric) enhance its channel and component capabilities in the humanoid robot sector [50][54]. Data Center Liquid Cooling Business - The rapid development of data center liquid cooling is expected to drive growth in 德昌电机控股's pump business, with products like CDU and DTC pumps enhancing cooling efficiency [56][58]. Automotive Small Motor Market - The ASP (Average Selling Price) of small motors in electric vehicles is projected to have a 50% growth potential compared to traditional fuel vehicles, driven by advancements in various automotive systems [60][66]. - The company aims to diversify its customer base in the automotive sector, which has been heavily reliant on foreign clients, to improve revenue growth [66]

Summary of the Conference Call for 德昌电机控股 Company Overview - 德昌电机控股 specializes in actuator assemblies, including motors and most components, dexterous hands, and hollow cup motors [1] Financial Performance - For the fiscal year ending Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of $36.5 million, a year-over-year decrease of 4.4% [2] - Net profit reached $2.6 million, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 14.6% [2] - Gross margin was reported at 23.1%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points year-over-year [2] - The company declared a dividend of $0.73 million, with a payout ratio of approximately 28% [3] Product Development and Market Strategy - The company is currently providing samples to clients in both China and the United States [2] - A cost-reduced and standardized joint product is expected to be launched in September during the A3 event [2] - The company is entering the AIDC liquid cooling sector, having released a liquid cooling pump designed to assist clients in building high-density computing environments [3] - These new products are characterized by their small size, stable flow rates, and compatibility with multiple GPU architectures [3] Capital Expenditure and Risks - Currently, there is minimal capital expenditure (Capex) planned, pending downstream progress [2] - Approximately 5% of revenue is subject to U.S. tariffs, indicating a potential risk [3] - Due to tariff risks, related Capex for local production may see a slight increase [3]