制作：产品中心 《策略|"十五五"前瞻初探——"十五五"研究系列》 1、"十五五"规划展望。自 1953 年开始制定第一个"五年计划"以来， 我国已发布十四个"五年规划"。完善统一大市场：推进统一大市场建设 重点在于打破地方保护和市场分割，促进资源的高效配置流动，激发各类 市场主体活力与创造力。2、促进民生消费："十五五"规划可能在以下几 方面进一步对消费进行支持：1.财政支出从投资进一步转向民生；2.大力 支持消费结构升级。3、深化国有企业改革：整体来看，预计"十五五" 中，国有企业改革整体思路或依旧延续精细化区分、"一企一策"的思路， 同时要积极探索尝试有利于创新的国有企业经营机制和公司治理模式。4、 健全资本市场稳定机制："十五五"期间资本市场改革思路或转向"构建 内在稳定、韧性强的现代化资本市场生态系统"。整体来看，"十五五"期 间的资本市场稳定机制建设将是一个系统性的工程，完成从"政策驱动" 到"制度驱动"、从"单一维度"到"生态系统"的转型，推动资本市场 高质量发展,助力加快建设金融强国。 证券研究报告 | 2025 年 08 月 27 日 $$\overline{{{\prod_{\mathrm ...

公司报告 | 半年报点评 大元泵业（603757） 证券研究报告 家用板块修复，液冷泵放量在即 事件： 2025 年 8 月 25 日，大元泵业发布半年报。2025H1 公司实现营业收入 9.6 亿元，同比+14.6%，归母净利润 1.0 亿元，同比-28.0%，扣非归母净利润 0.9 亿元，同比-10.7%。2025Q2 公司实现营业收入 5.8 亿元，同比+3.5%， 归母净利润 0.6 亿元，同比-37.9%，扣非归母净利润 0.6 亿元，同比-12.3%。 2025 年半年度拟每 10 股派发现金红利 5 元（含税），分红比例 81.7%。 点评： 各板块发展向好，新业务开始起量。1）上半年农泵主要产品实现收入约 3.4 亿元，同比增长约 17.6%；2）家用屏蔽泵实现收入约 3.6 亿元，同比增 长约 5.8%，以外销为主的节能泵产品实现销售收入接近 1.5 亿元，同比增 长超过 20%；热泵相关产品实现销售收入约 0.43 亿元，同比增长约 55%， 欧洲热泵市场经过 2024 年的深度调整后需求开始出现复苏迹象；3）工业 泵实现收入共计约 1.8 亿元，同比增长超过 20%；4）商泵同比增长超过 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Outperforming the Market" [5] Core Insights - The high power consumption of AI chips is accelerating the adoption of liquid cooling technology, with cold plate solutions becoming mainstream in data centers [1] - Policy incentives and the demand for computing power are driving the rapid growth of the liquid cooling industry, with significant market potential anticipated by 2025 [2] - The penetration rate of liquid cooling technology is still in its early stages, but is expected to see rapid growth as high-power chips become more widely used [3] Summary by Sections Section 1: Industry Dynamics - The latest Blackwell Ultra chip from NVIDIA has a power consumption of 1.4kW, leading to a total rack power consumption of 120-130kW, making traditional air cooling inadequate [1] - Liquid cooling technology is projected to be adopted in over 50% of new data center projects by the end of 2025, driven by policies such as China's "East Data West Computing" initiative [2] Section 2: Market Growth - The Chinese liquid cooling server market is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 46.8% from 2024 to 2029, potentially reaching a market size of $16.2 billion by 2029 [2] - The global penetration rate of liquid cooling in data centers is currently around 10%, with expectations to rise to over 30% in China by 2025 [3] Section 3: Industry Opportunities - The increasing shipment of NVIDIA's Blackwell series chips is a key driver for the adoption of liquid cooling, with projections indicating that Blackwell will account for over 80% of high-end GPU shipments by 2025 [3] - The report highlights several companies involved in the liquid cooling supply chain, including Xiangxin Technology and Kexin New Source, as potential beneficiaries of this growth [3]

Group 1 - The company GaoLan Co., Ltd. (300499.SZ) has stated on its interactive platform that its data center liquid cooling products include CDU, which can integrate key components such as liquid cooling pumps [1]

Core Viewpoint - The liquid cooling technology is poised for explosive growth as AI server power consumption surges, positioning liquid cooling pumps as the "heart" of these systems, crucial for stability and energy efficiency [1][2]. Industry Overview - The demand for liquid cooling technology is increasing due to the limitations of traditional air cooling in efficiency and energy consumption, with liquid cooling expected to become a standard in data centers, reducing PUE (Power Usage Effectiveness) to below 1.1 [2]. - The market for liquid cooling is expanding rapidly, driven by the growth in sectors such as new energy vehicles, energy storage, and computing power [2]. Company Insights - The company, Dayuan Pump Industry, has 35 years of experience in pump products and has developed a unique secondary pressure structure design for its high-end shielded pumps, ensuring zero leakage of hazardous media [2][3]. - In 2024, the company's liquid cooling temperature control business is projected to achieve approximately 90 million yuan in revenue, representing over 80% year-on-year growth, and has successfully entered the supply chains of major clients like ZTE and Inspur [2][3]. - The company has established independent sales and technical teams to respond quickly to customer needs, emphasizing collaboration and iterative development of solutions [3]. Strategic Direction - The company aims to transition from a traditional manufacturing entity to a modern industrial brand with global influence, focusing on high-quality products and avoiding price wars [3][5]. - Plans include increasing investment in technology research and development, optimizing liquid cooling pump solutions, and narrowing the gap with international brands through craftsmanship [5]. - The company has established a subsidiary in Singapore and plans to set up a factory in Thailand, aiming to enhance its service and sales network in Europe and explore emerging markets in the Middle East and Central Asia [5]. Future Aspirations - The company envisions becoming an indispensable player in the global market for liquid cooling technology as it becomes a standard configuration in data centers, leveraging its strong technical foundation and strategic foresight [5].

Summary of the Conference Call for Feilong Co., Ltd. Company Overview - **Company**: Feilong Co., Ltd. - **Industry**: Mechanical and automotive components, focusing on liquid cooling pumps, exhaust pipes, turbochargers, and electric water pumps for new energy vehicles. Key Points and Arguments Financial Performance and Projections - **Profitability Improvement**: In the first half of 2025, Feilong achieved profit growth without revenue increase due to stable raw material prices and the establishment of the Value Analysis Engineering (VVE) in October 2024, which led to significant cost reductions in key products [2][3]. - **Revenue Expectations**: The company anticipates revenue improvement in the second half of 2025, driven by new export projects and a high volume of orders for integrated modules in the new energy vehicle sector [2][3]. Product Development and Market Position - **Liquid Cooling Pumps**: Feilong is a market leader in liquid cooling pumps in China and has made strides in overseas markets. The company is actively entering the PC liquid cooling market, which is projected to generate hundreds of millions in profit [2][6]. - **New Energy Vehicle Orders**: The company has a significant order volume for integrated modules from major clients, contributing positively to revenue. The orders are expected to continue increasing throughout the year [5][16]. - **Robotics Collaboration**: Feilong has disclosed collaborations with automotive manufacturers to develop robotic solutions, which have not yet been fully valued by the market but hold substantial potential [6][14]. Market Dynamics - **Domestic Market**: The domestic order situation is influenced by major clients, particularly in the automotive sector. The company expects a recovery in the charging sector in the second half of the year [8]. - **Overseas Market**: Feilong's overseas business is primarily focused on Taiwan and the United States. The company is awaiting UL certification for exports to the U.S., expected to be completed by August 25, 2025 [9][12]. Future Growth and Profitability - **Long-term Profit Projections**: Feilong expects automotive segment profits to exceed 500 million yuan in the next three to five years, with overall profit potential exceeding 1 billion yuan due to emerging sectors like liquid cooling and robotics [7][20]. - **Government Subsidies**: The company anticipates an increase in government subsidies in the second half of the year, which will positively impact profits [11]. Sector-Specific Insights - **Data Center Liquid Cooling**: Feilong is set to launch the GB300 product, which offers improved performance over the GB200, enhancing competitiveness in the data center liquid cooling market [10]. - **Server Cooling Business**: The server cooling segment is expected to see significant revenue contributions in the coming years, with a projected market share of over 10% [18][19]. Strategic Initiatives - **PC Liquid Cooling Projects**: Feilong is currently working on six projects in the personal PC liquid cooling market, which is expected to grow significantly due to increasing demand for efficient cooling solutions [22]. - **Acquisition Plans**: The company is exploring acquisition opportunities in the liquid cooling and robotics sectors to enhance its product offerings [15][23]. Overall Outlook - **Growth Areas**: Feilong is poised for significant advancements in liquid cooling technology, personal PC liquid cooling, server cooling, and robotics in the second half of 2025, which are expected to drive sustained high growth in performance [24].

Summary of the Conference Call for 德昌电机控股 Company Overview - 德昌电机控股 specializes in actuator assemblies, including motors and most components, dexterous hands, and hollow cup motors [1] Financial Performance - For the fiscal year ending Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of $36.5 million, a year-over-year decrease of 4.4% [2] - Net profit reached $2.6 million, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 14.6% [2] - Gross margin was reported at 23.1%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points year-over-year [2] - The company declared a dividend of $0.73 million, with a payout ratio of approximately 28% [3] Product Development and Market Strategy - The company is currently providing samples to clients in both China and the United States [2] - A cost-reduced and standardized joint product is expected to be launched in September during the A3 event [2] - The company is entering the AIDC liquid cooling sector, having released a liquid cooling pump designed to assist clients in building high-density computing environments [3] - These new products are characterized by their small size, stable flow rates, and compatibility with multiple GPU architectures [3] Capital Expenditure and Risks - Currently, there is minimal capital expenditure (Capex) planned, pending downstream progress [2] - Approximately 5% of revenue is subject to U.S. tariffs, indicating a potential risk [3] - Due to tariff risks, related Capex for local production may see a slight increase [3]

Summary of the Conference Call for Feilong Co., Ltd. Company Overview - **Company**: Feilong Co., Ltd. - **Industry**: Liquid Cooling Pumps, Robotics, Automotive Components Key Points and Arguments Liquid Cooling Pump Business - Feilong Co., Ltd. has nearly monopolized the domestic market for liquid cooling pumps, with high technical barriers and profit margins significantly exceeding traditional automotive businesses. It is projected that revenue from the liquid cooling sector will exceed 100 million yuan by 2025, indicating substantial domestic and international market potential, which could yield profits several times that of the main business [2][4][5] - The company has achieved remarkable progress in the liquid cooling pump sector, with a high market share and capacity utilization rate. The profit margins in this area are much higher than those in traditional automotive sectors [4][9] Robotics Business - The robotics segment of Feilong Co., Ltd. faces significant expectation gaps, with the market lacking sufficient awareness of its potential. The company plans to leverage its existing products, including motor controllers, to enter the industrial internet platform and extend into modules and liquid cooling products, which could become new growth drivers [2][6] - Feilong Co., Ltd. has strong motor capabilities, developed through long-term research in electronic water pumps, which positions it well for expanding its robotics business [6][8] Server Electronic Water Pump Sector - Feilong Co., Ltd. has established itself as a market leader in the server electronic water pump sector and has successfully expanded into overseas markets. The company plans to extend its product line towards modules, potentially including reducers or screw rods, which may require mergers or partnerships [2][7] Financial Performance - For 2025, Feilong Co., Ltd. expects to achieve a net profit of over 400 million yuan, with the potential for higher profits when considering the liquid cooling and robotics businesses. The current valuation is approximately 8 billion yuan, with a price-to-earnings ratio of less than 20, indicating high growth expectations for the coming years [3][9][10] - The automotive business is projected to maintain a compound annual growth rate of 15% to 20% over the next three years, providing a solid foundation for overall financial performance [3][9] Investment Recommendation - Investment in Feilong Co., Ltd. is recommended due to its low valuation, high growth potential, and strong customer relationships, particularly with companies like Xiaomi, Chery, and Xpeng. The company’s ability to extend into modules and its strong motor capabilities are expected to enhance stock value [10][11] - The market currently underestimates the stock's potential, but as time progresses, its value is expected to be recognized, presenting a strong buying opportunity during any market corrections [11] Additional Important Insights - The domestic market potential for liquid cooling pumps is estimated to be over 1 billion yuan, while the international market could reach 4 to 5 billion yuan, totaling several billion in revenue if the company captures a significant market share [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [6][18]. Core Views - The household segment has returned to growth, although profitability is under short-term pressure. In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 1.91 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.57%, while net profit attributable to the parent company was 260 million yuan, a decrease of 10.55% [1][3]. - New businesses and scenarios are experiencing rapid growth, with traditional business showing fluctuations. The agricultural pump business is expected to generate approximately 600 million yuan in revenue, a decline of about 3.8%, while the household segment's main products are projected to generate around 720 million yuan, down about 6.5% [2][4]. - The liquid cooling pump market is anticipated to grow significantly, driven by the expansion of AI computing power and the need for efficient cooling solutions in data centers and electric vehicles [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a gross margin of 29.7%, down 1.5 percentage points year-on-year. The first quarter of 2025 saw a gross margin of 27.0%, a decrease of 8.9 percentage points year-on-year [3][5]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 2 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 32.95 million yuan, which represents 45% of the net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024 [1][5]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company forecasts net profits attributable to the parent company for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 268.37 million yuan, 325.16 million yuan, and 381.47 million yuan, respectively [5][6]. - The expected revenue growth rates for the upcoming years are 14.81% for 2025, 14.50% for 2026, and 13.76% for 2027 [5][6]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is positioned as a leader in the domestic shielding pump market, with a comprehensive product matrix including household, industrial, and liquid cooling pumps. It is expected to leverage its technological advantages and market expansion capabilities [4][6]. - The company has a dividend payout plan for 2025-2027, committing to distribute no less than 20% of the distributable profits in cash each year, contingent on meeting cash dividend conditions [1][5].