海外行业报告 | 行业动态研究 潮玩 证券研究报告 2025 年 07 月 19 日 泡泡玛特 25H1 盈喜点评：二季度利润增速不低于 350%，核 心 IP 全球化加速及海外规模效应显著提升盈利能力 事件：北京时间 2025 年 7 月 15 日，泡泡玛特（9992.HK）发布 2025 年上 半年正面盈利预告。公司 2025 年上半年，公司收入增速预期不低于 200%； 经调整溢利增速预期不低于 350%，主要系泡泡玛特品牌及旗下 IP 在全球认 可度进一步提升及海外收入占比持续提升优化盈利能力。 点评：25H1 收入同比不低于 200%，相比一季度水平推算二季度加速增长。 根据此前发布的一季报经营数据，公司 25Q1 整体收入较去年同期同比增 长 165%-170%。 海外市场高速增长，全球化布局成效凸显 2025 年上半年，公司收入增速预期不低于 200%；经调整溢利增速预期不 低于 350%，主要系泡泡玛特海外收入占比持续提升，收入结构优化对毛利、 溢利均产生积极影响。同时，随着海外门店加密，规模效应使溢利显著增 加。截至 2025 年 6 月 27 日，公司全球拥有 530 家泡泡玛特门店。根据 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Pop Mart (9992.HK) [5][11] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue growth of no less than 200% and a profit growth of no less than 350% in the first half of 2025 compared to the same period last year [5][6] - The significant revenue increase is attributed to the expansion of IP and product offerings, as well as a rise in overseas revenue [6][10] - The net profit margin is projected to improve to approximately 33% in the first half of 2025, up from 20% in the first half of 2024 [6][10] Summary by Sections Company Overview - Latest closing price: HKD 252.60 - Total market capitalization: HKD 3,392.27 billion - Earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected to be HKD 4.99 [4][11] Financial Performance - For the first half of 2024, the company reported a revenue of HKD 45.58 billion and a profit of HKD 9.64 billion [6] - The projected revenue for the first half of 2025 is at least HKD 137.64 billion, with a profit of at least HKD 44.89 billion [6] Growth Drivers - The company is focusing on international expansion, particularly in the US and European markets, with plans to open 100 stores overseas by 2025 [10] - The introduction of new product lines, including accessories and building blocks, is part of the strategy to enhance the comprehensive platform [9][10] Future Outlook - Revenue growth rates are expected to be 105%, 49%, and 38% for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profit growth rates of 114%, 58%, and 46% for the same years [11] - The company aims to increase its overseas revenue share to over 50% by 2025 [10][11]

Group 1 - During the 618 shopping festival, Pop Mart's LABUBU third-generation plush products achieved over 1 million sales on Tmall, with shipping scheduled for late September [1] - Pop Mart's performance during the 618 event indicates a shift in consumer demand from "cost-performance" to "emotional-value" [5] - The overseas market saw over 200,000 viewers in AliExpress's first live broadcast during the 618 event, leading to a sell-out of trendy toy products, highlighting the growing influence of Chinese trendy toy brands globally [5] Group 2 - The success of Pop Mart as a popular trendy toy brand in China is attributed to the upgrading of manufacturing, increased cultural confidence, and market openness [7] - Consumers are willing to pay for the joy that trendy toys bring, reflecting a trend of consumption upgrading [7] - The recent popularity of LABUBU has led to issues with scalpers, disrupting market order and potentially harming brand value, indicating the need for a balanced approach to maintain a healthy market for trendy toys [7]

03 每日焦点 01 大盘 昨夜美股三大股指持续震荡。截至收盘，道指平收 0%，纳指跌 0.5%，标普跌 0.27%。恐慌指数VIX涨 1.83%至17.26。美元指数昨日跌 0.41%，报98.65。美国十年国债收益率跌1.051%，收报4.424%，相较 两年期国债收益率差46.8个基点。现货黄金昨日涨 0.98%，报3354.93美元/盎司。布伦特原油收涨5.02% 至69.91。 美国5月CPI数据全线低于预期，核心CPI仅增长0.1%。随后特朗普再次呼吁美联储降息100个基点。美 国上诉法院裁定特朗普关税在上诉期间继续生效。欧盟希望贸易谈判延长至特朗普设定的7月最后期限 之后。特朗普对达成伊核协议信心减弱。伊朗防长：如果核谈判失败并与美国发生冲突，伊朗将打击该 地区的美军基地。洛杉矶市中心实施宵禁至当地时间周三早上六点。美国总检察长：特朗普将在加州动 用"霍布斯法"。 02 行业&个股 行业板块方面，除能源、公用事业、医疗和工业分别收涨1.45%、0.06%、0.05%和0.05%外，标普其他6 大板块悉数收跌：原料、房地产、日常消费、半导体、通讯和科技分别收跌0.99%、0.54%、0.34%、 ...

Core Insights - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the explosive growth of Pop Mart, particularly its LABUBU plush toy line, which has gained significant popularity among consumers globally, leading to a substantial increase in the company's stock price and the personal wealth of its founder, Wang Ning [1][3][6]. Company Performance - Pop Mart's stock price has surged, with a year-to-date increase of 188.5%, closing at 258.8 HKD per share on June 10 [1][6]. - Wang Ning's net worth reached 21.5 billion USD, placing him at 99th on the global billionaire list and making him the new richest person in Henan [3]. Market Trends - The success of LABUBU has sparked enthusiasm in the new consumption sector, with 180 funds heavily investing in Pop Mart as of the end of Q1 2025, holding a total of 60.79 million shares valued at approximately 8.779 billion CNY [1][9]. - The popularity of LABUBU has led to significant price inflation in the secondary market, with some products being resold for several thousand CNY, creating a phenomenon likened to "plastic Moutai" [8]. Industry Dynamics - The growth of Pop Mart is attributed to its unique IP ecosystem, which includes original IP incubation, artist cultivation, and multi-channel retailing, allowing for product diversification beyond blind boxes to include plush toys and digital entertainment [6][7]. - The concept of "谷子经济" (Guzi Economy), which focuses on derivative products from popular culture IPs, is seen as a driving force for future growth in this sector [7]. Future Outlook - A report from Zhao Zheng International predicts that Pop Mart's net profit will reach 7 billion CNY by 2025, exceeding market expectations by about 15%, primarily due to underestimated overseas expansion [10]. - The company is expected to continue leveraging its strong IP capabilities and network effects to maintain high profitability and sustainability in the competitive landscape [7][10].

Core Insights - The article highlights the significant wealth increase of Wang Ning, the founder of Pop Mart, who has become the new richest person in Henan with a net worth of $20.3 billion, largely due to the success of the Labubu IP and the soaring stock price of the company [4][5][7]. Financial Performance - The Labubu IP series, part of THE MONSTERS, achieved a revenue of 3.04 billion yuan in 2024, marking a staggering year-on-year growth of 726.6%, contributing to 23.3% of Pop Mart's total revenue [5]. - Pop Mart's stock price has surged over 11 times since the beginning of 2024, with a 174% increase projected for 2025 [5]. Product Quality Issues - Despite claims of strict quality control, Pop Mart faces significant consumer complaints regarding product quality, with 219 complaints related to quality issues such as defects and slow exchange processes reported on the Black Cat complaint platform [8][10]. - The LABUBU 3.0 series has been criticized for quality defects, including misalignment and paint issues, leading some consumers to believe that the quality is inferior to unofficial products [10][12]. Supply Chain Management Challenges - Pop Mart has established a rigorous supplier admission and evaluation mechanism to ensure supply chain reliability, yet discrepancies in product quality have been reported due to production variances across different factories [15][17]. - The company is also facing challenges with scalpers, who are able to acquire products more easily than regular consumers, indicating a lack of effective supply chain information coordination [14][17].

Group 1 - ByteDance will disable third-party AI development software, including Cursor, starting June 30, and will promote its in-house tool Trae as a replacement [3] - BYD responded to the financial troubles of its Shandong dealer, stating that the dealer's issues stemmed from reckless expansion and leveraged operations, and that BYD is providing support [3] - Shein is preparing to shift its IPO plans from London to Hong Kong after lowering its valuation target to approximately $50 billion, down from $66 billion [5] Group 2 - SpaceX's Starship's ninth test flight was unsuccessful, but CEO Elon Musk noted significant progress compared to the previous flight [8] - Apple is planning a major software brand overhaul, renaming its operating systems based on the year rather than version numbers, starting with iOS 26 [8] - Geely's chairman Li Shufu emphasized a commitment to open competition and avoiding price wars in a recent internal speech [8] Group 3 - Didi's corporate version has become the first travel service provider for 3M in China, aiming to enhance travel management for foreign enterprises [15] - DJI is reportedly entering the robot vacuum market, with its first product expected to launch in June [10] - Honor has confirmed its entry into the robotics sector, showcasing a robot that can run at a speed of 4m/s [10] Group 4 - Horizon Robotics' Diguo Robot has completed a $100 million Series A funding round, with participation from various investment firms [17] - Toyota has invested $250 million in Joby Aviation, enhancing its capabilities in advanced design and production [17] - Motorola announced the acquisition of Silvus Technologies for $4.4 billion, pending regulatory approval [17] Group 5 - The first global standard for humanoid robot intelligence classification has been established, creating a framework for evaluating capabilities across four dimensions [22] - The pre-sale box office for the 2025 Dragon Boat Festival has surpassed 10 million, with "Mission: Impossible 8" leading the ticket sales [22][25] - The retail sales of passenger cars in China from May 1-25 reached 1.358 million units, a year-on-year increase of 16% [26]

Group 1: Education and International Relations - The U.S. government is imposing restrictions on Harvard University regarding international students, suggesting a cap of 15% on foreign students, which currently stands at approximately 31% [2] - The U.S. government has also announced the cancellation of federal funding for Harvard and has suspended new student visa interviews [2] Group 2: Financial Services and Investment - Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng met with Morgan Stanley's co-president, expressing a commitment to high-level openness and inviting more U.S. financial institutions to deepen cooperation in China's capital market [3] - The Chinese Foreign Ministry emphasized that the essence of Sino-U.S. economic relations is mutual benefit, highlighting the significant bilateral demand reflected in increased orders from U.S. buyers [4] Group 3: Consumer Goods and Quality Control - Pop Mart's Labubu plush toys have gained popularity, but there are reports of quality control issues, including defects like misalignment and paint loss, leading to customer dissatisfaction [6] - Pop Mart's customer service stated that all products undergo quality checks before shipment, but minor imperfections may occur during production [6] Group 4: Technology and Innovation - Didi Enterprise Edition has become the first travel service provider for 3M in China, offering innovative services that have led to a 39% year-on-year increase in ride orders from foreign clients [8] - DeepSeek has released an open-source version of its R1 model, which reportedly performs comparably to OpenAI's latest models [9] Group 5: Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare - Fosun Pharma has signed exclusive commercialization agreements for several biopharmaceutical products with Nine Sources Gene, covering regions including the Middle East and parts of Southeast Asia [17] - The National Healthcare Security Administration is conducting checks on retail pharmacies to address potential issues of pharmacists' credentials being misused [16]

Core Insights - The潮玩 industry is transitioning from a focus on figurines to a broader range of products, driven by consumer demand for emotional connection and social value [1][11] - Companies are diversifying their product offerings and pricing strategies to cater to a wider audience, moving beyond traditional toy categories [4][10] Category Expansion - The潮玩 market has expanded from primarily figurines to include plush toys, building blocks, jewelry, and card games, creating differentiated competitive advantages [3] - The plush category is expected to perform particularly well by 2025, as evidenced by the successful global launch of泡泡玛特's LABUBU series, which topped the App Store shopping charts in the U.S. [3][4] Financial Performance - 泡泡玛特's latest financial report indicates an increasing revenue share from the plush category, reflecting a shift in consumer interest towards diverse product experiences [4] - The company is implementing differentiated pricing strategies to cover various consumer segments, enhancing market penetration [4] Cross-Industry Collaboration - The collaboration between潮玩 brands and popular IPs, such as the film《哪吒之魔童闹海》, has proven to enhance product value and market reach [6][7] - Cross-industry partnerships are seen as a growth engine, allowing潮玩 brands to tap into new consumer demographics and cultural experiences [7] Content Ecosystem - The潮玩 industry is evolving from mere visual appeal to a focus on storytelling and cultural significance, with IP-driven content ecosystems becoming essential for consumer loyalty [8][10] - Companies are investing in both internal IP development and external collaborations to enrich their content offerings and enhance brand engagement [10] Emotional and Cultural Transformation -潮玩 products are increasingly viewed as cultural symbols that allow consumers to express individuality and seek community recognition [11] - The industry is exploring interactive experiences, such as theme parks and social events, to strengthen emotional ties between consumers and IPs [11]

Market Performance - Major stock indices in China saw significant gains, with the North China 50 Index rising over 1% to reach a new high [1] - The FTSE China A50 Index futures increased by more than 1%, while the offshore RMB appreciated by 101 points against the USD, currently at 7.2041 [2] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed up 0.38% at 3393.49 points, with the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.53% and the ChiNext Index up 0.99% [2] Sector Highlights - The coal sector showed strong performance, with companies like Dayou Energy and Jinkong Coal Industry hitting the daily limit, and Shanmei International rising nearly 6% [2] - The solid-state battery concept gained traction, with companies like Lingpai Technology and Ningde Times seeing significant price increases, with Lingpai Technology hitting a 20% limit up [2][4] - The innovative drug sector remained active, with Shuyitai and SanSheng Guojian both hitting the daily limit, and SaiSheng Pharmaceutical rising over 12% [7] Company Developments - Ningde Times, which recently listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, saw its stock rise by over 9% during trading [3] - Bubble Mart reached a new historical high, with its stock price rising over 5% to 220 HKD per share, bringing its market capitalization close to 300 billion HKD [10] - Bubble Mart's Labubu 3.0 product has gained immense popularity globally, leading to long queues in stores and significant price premiums on secondary markets [12] Industry Trends - The solid-state battery sector is identified as a core focus within the lithium battery industry, with companies actively launching new products and materials seeing increased demand [6] - The innovative drug market in China is projected to grow from 132.5 billion USD in 2019 to 159.2 billion USD by 2024, maintaining a global market share of around 15% [9]