泡泡玛特：市场核心争议问题解读 20250917 摘要 泡玛特头部 IP 如拉布布和小红书、抖音等社交媒体平台话题热度显著增 长，2025 年 6 月至 9 月，新兴人 IP 在小红书浏览量增长 170%，讨论 量增长 204%，但社交媒体热度转化为实际收入需产品设计、供应链和 渠道支持。 产品设计是吸引不同群体的关键，如拉布布三星堆系列成功吸引男性用 户，提升 IP 认知度和转化率。泡玛特不断推出新品系列，如搪胶毛绒和 盲盒系列，以保持市场热度，但产品设计问题，如 Minie Labubu 争议， 会影响付费率。 泡玛特产品在二手市场价格与供需关系密切相关，限定款溢价较高，常 规款无明显溢价。二手市场价格高于一手价格可能反映供应链管理问题， 经销商赚取差价会消耗购买力，产能扩张时二手市场价格下滑属正常现 象。 泡玛特产能快速扩张，2024 年初毛绒产品产能 40 万只，2025 年 8 月 增至 3,000 万只，预计 2025 年 12 月规划产能接近 5,000 万只。产能 扩张旨在满足市场需求，但需关注实际销售情况，避免库存积压。 Q&A 泡玛特近期市值和股价下调的原因是什么？目前估值情况如何？ 泡玛 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Pop Mart (9992.HK) [5][11] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue growth of no less than 200% and a profit growth of no less than 350% in the first half of 2025 compared to the same period last year [5][6] - The significant revenue increase is attributed to the expansion of IP and product offerings, as well as a rise in overseas revenue [6][10] - The net profit margin is projected to improve to approximately 33% in the first half of 2025, up from 20% in the first half of 2024 [6][10] Summary by Sections Company Overview - Latest closing price: HKD 252.60 - Total market capitalization: HKD 3,392.27 billion - Earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected to be HKD 4.99 [4][11] Financial Performance - For the first half of 2024, the company reported a revenue of HKD 45.58 billion and a profit of HKD 9.64 billion [6] - The projected revenue for the first half of 2025 is at least HKD 137.64 billion, with a profit of at least HKD 44.89 billion [6] Growth Drivers - The company is focusing on international expansion, particularly in the US and European markets, with plans to open 100 stores overseas by 2025 [10] - The introduction of new product lines, including accessories and building blocks, is part of the strategy to enhance the comprehensive platform [9][10] Future Outlook - Revenue growth rates are expected to be 105%, 49%, and 38% for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profit growth rates of 114%, 58%, and 46% for the same years [11] - The company aims to increase its overseas revenue share to over 50% by 2025 [10][11]