Core Viewpoint - The eighth China International Import Expo (CIIE) is being held in Shanghai from November 5 to 10, showcasing the global leading trend culture and entertainment group, Pop Mart, which highlights its popular IPs SKULLPANDA and CRYBABY, creating an immersive experience for attendees [1][3]. Group 1: Event Highlights - Pop Mart's exhibition theme is "Creating Trends, Boundless Play," featuring a birthday celebration design to commemorate the company's 15th anniversary, creating a warm and festive atmosphere [3]. - The exhibition booth includes a giant birthday cake adorned with various IP characters that have accompanied the brand's growth, symbolizing the connection to a beautiful life [3]. Group 2: IP Showcase - Pop Mart emphasizes its popular IPs SKULLPANDA and CRYBABY, with SKULLPANDA designed by artist 熊喵, representing the aesthetic of "boundless imagery" and encouraging self-exploration [5]. - CRYBABY, created by Thai artist Molly, focuses on emotional expression and resonates deeply with global audiences, advocating for facing emotions and moving forward [5]. - The exhibition also features limited edition products that incorporate local cultures, enhancing the connection with global consumers [5]. Group 3: Product Innovation - Pop Mart showcases a variety of products, including figurines and plush toys, allowing attendees to experience the brand's unique culture and service [6]. - The company continues to innovate product categories, expanding consumer engagement through the use of PVC plush toys that enhance expression and display [6]. - Pop Mart has developed a diverse product matrix and is exploring new business areas such as building blocks, desserts, and jewelry, breathing new life into its IPs [6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The company reports that all four major regions achieved over 100% growth in the first half of 2025, with the Americas experiencing a tenfold increase, indicating a successful internationalization strategy [8]. - Pop Mart aims to maintain its brand essence and collaborate with artists to create a better trend lifestyle in the future [10].

Core Insights - The article highlights the rapid growth of the trendy toy sector, driven by the consumption power of Generation Z and the evolving consumption structure, with TOP TOY emerging as a significant player in this market [1][2]. Company Overview - TOP TOY, established in 2020 and incubated by Miniso, focuses on selling licensed IP toys, proprietary IP toys, and third-party brand toys, covering various categories such as blind boxes, building blocks, figurines, and dolls [2]. - The company has shown impressive financial performance, with revenue increasing from 679 million RMB in 2022 to 1.909 billion RMB in 2024, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 67.7% [2]. - TOP TOY achieved a net profit of 212 million RMB in 2023, further increasing to 293 million RMB in 2024, indicating a successful turnaround from previous losses [2]. Market Position - By 2024, TOP TOY captured a market share of 2.2%, positioning itself as a notable player in the trendy toy industry, although still significantly behind competitors like Pop Mart and LEGO [3]. - Despite its growth, TOP TOY's profitability remains low compared to Pop Mart, with a net profit of 294 million RMB in 2024, which is less than one-tenth of Pop Mart's earnings [3]. Financial Performance - TOP TOY's gross margin improved from 19.9% in 2022 to 32.7% in 2024, although it slightly decreased to 32.4% in the first half of 2025 [2]. - The company faces challenges with rising sales and distribution expenses, which increased by 102.4% in the first half of 2025, outpacing revenue growth of 58.5% [3]. Cash Flow Analysis - The company maintains positive operating cash flow, but its investment and financing cash flows are negative due to store expansion and debt repayments, indicating a reliance on external financing [4]. IP and Product Strategy - TOP TOY's IP strategy relies heavily on licensed IPs, with 43 licensed IPs contributing 889 million RMB in revenue in 2024, while its proprietary IPs generated only 6.8 million RMB [5][6]. - The company faces risks associated with its dependence on licensed IPs, as the expiration of key licenses could impact product supply and profitability [6]. Channel Strategy - TOP TOY's distribution strategy is primarily based on a franchise and distribution model, with a significant portion of revenue coming from offline distributors [8]. - The company has 293 stores, with a notable reliance on Miniso for channel support, which could limit its long-term growth potential if Miniso alters its partnership terms [9]. Long-term Outlook - While TOP TOY has demonstrated strong growth and potential in the trendy toy market, structural issues such as IP dependency and channel reliance pose significant challenges to its independent growth [10]. - The company's long-term valuation will depend on its ability to enhance its IP autonomy, reduce channel dependency, and optimize its financial structure, alongside the overall growth trends in the trendy toy industry [10].

Core Viewpoint - Zhongyou Securities has a positive outlook on Pop Mart (09992), highlighting its strong capabilities in IP acquisition, incubation, and operation, and maintains a "buy" rating for the company [1] Group 1: Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve revenue growth rates of 172%, 38%, and 36% for the years 2025-2027, with net profit growth rates of 251%, 42%, and 39% for the same period, all of which have been revised upwards [1] - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 8.16, 11.59, and 16.16 CNY per share for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 26x, 18x, and 13x [1] Group 2: Seasonal Outlook - Q4 is traditionally a peak sales season for Pop Mart, with significant demand expected for gifts and trendy toys due to Halloween, Black Friday, and Christmas [2] - The launch of the Halloween-themed "why so serious" series has seen strong sales, and upcoming Christmas product releases are anticipated to further boost sales growth [2] Group 3: Long-term Business Development - Over the past decade, Pop Mart has developed a comprehensive operational platform covering the entire trendy toy industry chain, focusing on five key areas: global artist discovery, IP incubation and operation, consumer engagement, trendy toy culture promotion, and innovative business incubation and investment [3] - The company plans to introduce new product lines, including accessories and building blocks in 2024, and magazines, doll clothes, and gold products in 2025, indicating a gradual expansion of its comprehensive platform [3] Group 4: Company Expansion and Innovation - The company aims to increase its overseas business share by opening stores in key landmark cities, particularly in the US and Europe, and plans to expand new business models overseas, including live streaming [4] - Cost control measures include establishing regional warehouses in Southeast Asia and Europe, which are expected to save 50% in costs and improve replenishment efficiency [4] - The company intends to maintain a disciplined approach to SKU numbers, with a projected limit on the absolute number of SKUs in 2025 compared to 2024, focusing on quality over quantity [4] - Plans for 2025 include opening 100 stores overseas, with overseas revenue expected to exceed 50%, and the North American market projected to match the sales volume of the Chinese market in 2020 [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Pop Mart (9992.HK) [5][12] Core Views - The company reported a significant revenue growth of 245-250% year-on-year for Q3 2025, with China revenue increasing by 185-190% and overseas revenue by 365-370% [5][10] - The upcoming Q4 is expected to be a strong sales season due to events like Halloween, Black Friday, and Christmas, which will drive demand for gifts and trendy toys [10][11] - The company is expanding its international presence and new product lines, aiming for overseas revenue to exceed 50% of total revenue by 2025 [11][12] Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is expected to accelerate growth, with Q2 2025 revenue growth estimated at 241% and Q3 2025 at 245-250% [7][10] - In China, Q3 2025 revenue growth is projected at 185-190%, with online sales growing by 300-305% [8][9] International Market Performance - Overseas revenue growth for Q3 2025 is expected to be 365-370%, with a slight deceleration compared to previous quarters [8][9] - Specific regional growth includes Asia-Pacific at 170-175%, the Americas at 1265-1270%, and Europe at 735-740% [9] Future Outlook - The company plans to open 100 stores overseas in 2025, with a focus on the U.S. and European markets [11] - New product categories are being introduced, and the company aims to maintain a streamlined SKU strategy [11] Financial Projections - Revenue growth rates are projected at 172% for 2025, 38% for 2026, and 36% for 2027, with net profit growth rates of 251%, 42%, and 39% respectively [12][15] - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 8.16, 11.59, and 16.16 CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 [12][15]

Core Insights - TOP TOY has submitted its IPO application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, marking a significant milestone for the company which has achieved profitability and rapid growth in under five years [1][3][6] Company Overview - TOP TOY is recognized as one of the fastest-growing collectible toy brands in China, achieving a GMV (Gross Merchandise Volume) exceeding 1 billion yuan in a remarkably short time [1][3] - The company operates 293 stores globally as of June 2025, with a revenue of 1.9 billion yuan and a net profit of 294 million yuan in 2024, reflecting growth rates of 30.6% and 38.2% respectively [3][9] - The company has experienced accelerated revenue growth in the first half of 2025, reaching a rate of 58.5% [3] Financial Support and Business Model - TOP TOY benefits significantly from the support of its major shareholder, Miniso Group, which provides financial backing and operational resources [4][5] - Approximately 50% of TOP TOY's revenue in 2023 and 2024 came from Miniso Group, indicating a strong reliance on this partnership [5][6] - The company employs a unique partnership model that allows for rapid expansion, with partners covering store costs while TOP TOY manages operations [5] Challenges and Future Outlook - Despite its rapid growth, TOP TOY faces short-term liquidity pressures, with current assets not covering current liabilities until mid-2025 [9] - The company is working on developing its own intellectual property (IP), with current self-developed IP revenue being less than 1% of total income [9] - TOP TOY has recently acquired multiple designer IPs, increasing its proprietary IP count from 8 to 17, indicating a strategic move towards enhancing its product offerings [9]

Core Insights - TOP TOY is rapidly expanding in the collectible toy market, having submitted its IPO application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange within five years of its establishment, supported significantly by its major shareholder, Miniso Group [1][2][4] Company Overview - TOP TOY opened its first store in 2020 and achieved profitability in 2023, with plans for international expansion in 2024 and an IPO in 2025 [2] - As of June 2023, TOP TOY operates 293 stores globally, projecting revenues of 1.9 billion yuan and a net profit of 294 million yuan for 2024, with growth rates of 30.6% and 38.2% respectively [2][3] - The company reported a revenue growth rate of 58.5% in the first half of 2023 [2] Financial Support and Business Model - Miniso Group contributes approximately 50% of TOP TOY's revenue, with around 5 yuan of every 10 yuan earned coming from this partnership [2][3] - TOP TOY's business model includes a unique partnership system that allows rapid store openings, with partners providing capital for rent and inventory while TOP TOY manages operations [3] Challenges and Future Plans - Despite rapid growth, TOP TOY faces challenges regarding its independence and reliance on Miniso Group, with plans to reduce related transactions to below 40% of total revenue by 2028 [4] - The company has recently completed a Series A funding round of 594 million USD, which will help alleviate short-term liquidity pressures [5][6] - TOP TOY's self-developed IP remains a challenge, with only 680,000 yuan and 610,000 yuan in revenue from proprietary IP in 2024 and the first half of 2025, respectively [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - TOP TOY International Group Limited, a subsidiary of Miniso Group, has officially submitted its listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, aiming to capitalize on the booming collectible toy market in China [1][11]. Company Overview - TOP TOY was established in December 2020 and is recognized as the largest and fastest-growing collectible toy brand in China, with a projected GMV of 2.4 billion RMB for 2024 [1][4]. - The company currently holds 17 proprietary IPs, 43 licensed IPs, and over 600 third-party IPs, but its revenue heavily relies on external IPs, with proprietary IPs contributing less than 1% of total revenue [4][5]. Financial Performance - TOP TOY's revenue has significantly increased from 679 million RMB to 1.909 billion RMB over the past three years, with a revenue of 1.36 billion RMB and a net profit of approximately 180 million RMB in the first half of this year, resulting in a net profit margin of about 13.2% [4][7]. - In 2023, approximately 47% of the company's revenue, around 889 million RMB, came from popular licensed IPs such as Sanrio and Disney [4]. Market Position and Strategy - TOP TOY operates 293 stores nationwide, benefiting from Miniso's extensive distribution network, which includes over 4,300 stores in mainland China [7][9]. - The company plans to open 100 new stores domestically this year, aiming for a total of 380 to 400 stores by year-end, and has set a goal to expand internationally to 1,000 stores across 100 countries within five years [11]. Future Outlook - With a reserve of 10 billion RMB for ongoing expansion, TOP TOY is positioned to leverage the current collectible toy trend and potentially achieve a higher valuation upon successful listing [11].

Core Viewpoint - TOP TOY International Group Limited, a subsidiary of Miniso Group, has officially submitted its listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, aiming to capitalize on the booming collectible toy market and potentially achieve a higher valuation upon successful listing [1][12]. Company Overview - TOP TOY was established in December 2020 and is recognized as the largest and fastest-growing collectible toy brand in China, with a projected GMV of 2.4 billion RMB for 2024 [1][4]. - The company has experienced significant revenue growth, with revenue increasing from 679 million RMB to 1.909 billion RMB over the past three years, and achieving 1.36 billion RMB in revenue in the first half of this year [4]. Revenue Sources - TOP TOY's revenue is heavily reliant on external IPs, with approximately 47% of its revenue in 2024 expected to come from popular licensed IPs such as Sanrio and Disney, generating around 889 million RMB [4]. - The company holds 17 proprietary IPs and 43 licensed IPs, but its own IPs contributed only 680,000 RMB to revenue last year, indicating a weak market influence [4]. Market Position and Strategy - As of June 30, 2023, TOP TOY operates 293 stores, supported by Miniso's extensive distribution network, which includes over 4,300 stores in mainland China [8][10]. - Miniso is not only the controlling shareholder of TOP TOY, holding 86.9% of its shares, but also its largest customer, contributing nearly 45.5% of TOP TOY's total revenue in the first half of this year [8][9]. Future Plans - The company plans to open 100 new stores domestically this year, aiming for a total of 380 to 400 stores by year-end, and has set a goal to expand internationally by opening 1,000 stores in 100 countries over the next five years [12]. - TOP TOY has prepared a reserve fund of 10 billion RMB to support its ongoing domestic and international expansion efforts [12].

Core Viewpoint - TOP TOY International Group Limited, a subsidiary of Miniso Group, has officially submitted its listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, aiming to capitalize on the booming collectible toy market [1]. Group 1: Company Overview - TOP TOY was established in December 2020 and is recognized as the largest and fastest-growing collectible toy brand in China, with a projected GMV of 2.4 billion RMB for 2024 [2]. - The company has experienced significant revenue growth, with revenue increasing from 679 million RMB to 1.909 billion RMB over the past three years, and achieving 1.36 billion RMB in revenue with a net profit of approximately 180 million RMB in the first half of this year, resulting in a net profit margin of about 13.2% [3]. Group 2: IP and Revenue Dependency - TOP TOY currently holds 17 proprietary IPs, 43 licensed IPs, and over 600 third-party IPs, but its revenue heavily relies on external IPs, with licensed IPs contributing approximately 889 million RMB, accounting for about 47% of total revenue in 2024 [4][5]. - The company's proprietary IPs generated only 6.8 million RMB in revenue last year, representing less than 1% of total revenue, indicating a weak market influence compared to competitors like Pop Mart, which generated 11.121 billion RMB from its proprietary IPs, constituting 85% of its total revenue [5]. Group 3: Sales Channels and Partnerships - Miniso Group is the largest customer of TOP TOY, accounting for 48.3% and 45.5% of the company's total revenue in the last year and the first half of this year, respectively, with sales to Miniso amounting to 923 million RMB and 619 million RMB [8]. - The company plans to leverage its partnership with Yonghui Supermarket, which has become Miniso's largest shareholder, to enhance its sales channels, particularly for its own products like building blocks and blind boxes [10]. Group 4: Expansion Plans - TOP TOY aims to open 100 new stores in China this year, targeting a total of 380 to 400 stores by year-end, and plans to expand internationally by covering 100 countries and opening 1,000 stores over the next five years [10]. - The company has prepared a reserve fund of 10 billion RMB to support its ongoing domestic and international expansion efforts [10].

Core Insights - The company has generated significant revenue of 1.3 billion from top IPs like Ultraman and Transformers in just six months [1] - Overseas sales have surged nearly ninefold, indicating strong international demand for these IPs [1] - A substantial 80% of the company's revenue is derived from licensing IPs, with Ultraman alone contributing to half of this revenue [1]