潮玩更新：生态重构与消费边界突围，IP 潮玩步入历史机 遇期 20250820 摘要 泡泡玛特 2025 上半年营收增长强劲，海外线上渠道和单店效益提升是 主要驱动力。调整后净利润率达 33.9%，同比提升 11.6 个百分点，显 示盈利能力显著增强。 泡泡玛特全球各区域市场均实现三位数以上营收增长，其中美洲地区增 速高达十倍。亚太地区营收 28.5 亿元，同比增长超 250%。中国市场 营收同比增长 135%，经营利润率达 49%。 泡泡玛特形成"一超多强"IP 矩阵，拉布布营收 48 亿元，同比增长超 600%。Molly、School Panda、Crybaby 和 Demo 等 IP 收入均超 10 亿元，展现多元化 IP 运营能力。 毛绒品类成为泡泡玛特业绩增长新引擎，收入占比显著提升，增速达 1,276%，首次超过手办品类。公司计划推出 mini 拉啵啵等新品，并拓 展甜品、手饰、服装等新产品线。 泡泡玛特通过精益生产和自动化显著提升供应链产能，单月产能已达 2024 年同期十倍以上。潮玩行业自动化水平提升至 50%以上，推动产 品创新。 Q&A 泡泡玛特在 2025 年上半年取得了哪些重要的业绩 ...

Group 1: Diplomatic Dynamics - ASEAN trade reached $762.79 billion in 2023, a 25% increase since 2012[12] - ASEAN's GDP growth rate for 2024 is projected at 4.6%, significantly higher than the global average of 3.3%[13] - ASEAN celebrates its 58th anniversary, emphasizing unity and sustainable development[7] Group 2: Economic Dynamics - Vietnam's GDP growth in Q2 2025 was 7.96%, while Indonesia's was 5.12%[25] - Southeast Asian stock markets showed positive trends, with Vietnam's index rising 7.78% as of August 13[31] - Major currencies in Southeast Asia appreciated against the US dollar, with the Philippine peso rising 1.8%[32] Group 3: Policy Dynamics - ASEAN countries are implementing expansionary monetary and fiscal policies to boost economic growth[36] - The Philippines is lowering barriers for retirement savings to encourage investment[38] - Malaysia, Indonesia, and Thailand are enhancing cross-border settlement frameworks to improve regional trade[39] Group 4: China-ASEAN Cooperation - Chinese潮玩 IP is gaining popularity in ASEAN, with Bubble Mart's overseas revenue expected to exceed domestic sales by 2025[48] - In 2024, Bubble Mart's overseas revenue reached 5.06 billion yuan, a 375.2% increase year-on-year[48] - The潮玩 industry reflects the changing consumption patterns of Southeast Asia's young population, driven by cultural influences[49]

Summary of the Conference Call for Pop Mart Company Overview - **Company**: Pop Mart - **Industry**: Character IP (Intellectual Property) and Toy Industry Key Points and Arguments Industry Insights - Character IPs like Sanrio and Disney's Mickey Mouse and Winnie the Pooh have significant commercial potential, possibly surpassing content-based IPs due to their broad appeal and adaptability to market changes [2][3] - The commercial value of character IPs does not solely depend on content depth; successful IPs can attract audiences with lower barriers [3][4] Pop Mart's Business Strategy - Pop Mart maximizes the lifecycle value of its IPs through long-term operations and channel capabilities, attracting talented artists to create popular products [2][6] - The company has seen a long-term upward trend in the popularity of its key IPs, with shorter periods of decline compared to competitors [6][7] - The construction of an IP matrix is crucial for enhancing operational stability and risk resistance, allowing for cross-selling and increased frequency of hit products [7][8] International Expansion - Since July 2023, Pop Mart has made significant progress in international markets, with overseas revenue increasing by 140% year-on-year, now accounting for 17% of total revenue [2][8][15] - The successful international launch of the "Labbub" brand has driven explosive growth in company performance and valuation [8][15] Financial Performance - Pop Mart's gross margin and operating profit margin have significantly improved due to strong operational leverage and higher gross margins in overseas markets [3][18] - Revenue is projected to reach 30.5 billion yuan in 2025, a 134% year-on-year increase, with net profit expectations raised from 6.5 billion yuan to 10 billion yuan [3][18] Product and Marketing Strategies - The company regularly updates its product lines, introducing new series every six months to maintain consumer interest [17] - Marketing efforts include social media campaigns and collaborations with influencers, which have significantly boosted brand visibility [17][19] Challenges and Adjustments - The company faced challenges in profitability due to rising product costs and inventory pressures, leading to strategic adjustments in product line management [12][14] - Organizational restructuring has been implemented to enhance IP innovation and supply chain capabilities [14] Future Outlook - While short-term focus may be on the popularity of the "Labbub" brand, the long-term commercial value of Pop Mart's IP matrix is expected to be underestimated [20] - The company aims to expand its store presence and diversify its international markets to support the growth of various IPs [20] Valuation Comparison - Compared to global IP companies like Disney and Bandai, Pop Mart's current valuation of 23x PE is considered attractive given its higher profit growth expectations [21] Additional Important Insights - The overall market sentiment towards the blind box industry has been cautious due to regulatory uncertainties and competitive pressures [11] - Pop Mart's ability to adapt to changing consumer demands and market conditions is a key factor in its ongoing success [14][20]

Summary of the Call Transcript on the Trendy Toy Industry Industry Overview - The trendy toy market was initiated by Hong Kong artists, integrating art and fashion elements, with diverse forms including figurines, sculptures, and blind boxes [1][2] - The broad definition of trendy toys includes collaborations with IPs from films, anime, and games, catering to specific enthusiasts [1][3] - The blind box segment has rapidly gained popularity due to low consumer and cognitive barriers, high adaptability, and hidden design features [1][4] Key Insights - **Consumer Demographics**: The core audience for trendy toys is aged between 15 and 40, with a higher proportion of female users, although the overall gender ratio is becoming more balanced [1][6][8] - **Market Size and Growth**: The domestic trendy toy market is expected to exceed 100 billion yuan by 2026, with blind boxes showing high growth rates. The IP toy market is projected to be around 700 billion yuan, with building and assembly toys accounting for about 30% [1][11][12] - **Market Competition**: The market is fragmented, with LEGO leading at 12 billion yuan GMV, followed by Pop Mart at 8.7 billion and Brook at 2.5 billion. The top ten companies hold about 50% of the market share [1][13] Success Factors for Trendy Toy Companies - **Traffic IP**: Successful companies leverage high-traffic IPs, typically character designs rather than content-based, due to their higher commercialization potential [4][5] - **Product Quality**: High-quality products are essential, requiring effective design and supply chain barriers [5] - **Social Media and Secondary Market**: Effective social media marketing enhances brand visibility, while a convenient secondary market facilitates transactions [5] - **Entertainment and Interaction**: Creating engaging purchase experiences and interactive scenarios increases consumer entertainment value [5] Consumer Needs in Blind Box Purchases - **Value for Money**: Consumers seek affordable and easily accessible products [7] - **Emotional Connection**: There is a desire for self-identity, curiosity, and social recognition through collecting [7][6] - **Social Interaction**: Collecting and trading through social platforms fosters community engagement [7] IP Acquisition and Market Dynamics - **IP Acquisition**: The domestic market primarily acquires IP through self-incubation and collaborations with independent artists, with IP accounting for a small percentage of GMV [10] - **Future Trends**: The market is still in its early stages, with potential for structural changes and innovation in product categories [12] Company Strategies - **Pop Mart's Expansion**: Pop Mart is expanding its IP matrix and product categories, with plans to open 320 stores next year, increasing its overseas presence significantly [2][16][21] - **52TOYS Strategy**: 52TOYS focuses on a combination of self-owned and licensed IPs, with a significant portion of revenue coming from external IPs [22][23] Sales Channels and Revenue - **Diverse Sales Channels**: Both companies are diversifying their sales channels, with a significant reliance on distributors while also expanding direct-to-consumer (D2C) models [24][21] - **Revenue Projections**: 52TOYS generates 70-80% of its revenue from licensed IPs, with a focus on static blind boxes and figurines [23] Future Outlook - **IPO Plans**: The companies are preparing for potential IPOs, with Pop Mart expected to file in Hong Kong, aiming for a listing in 2025 or 2026 [26]

Core Insights - The exhibition titled "The Time of Ugly Has Arrived" showcases bizarre and unconventional products sold online in China, organized by e-commerce giant Taobao [1] - The event, held from July 29 to August 15, attracted over 3,000 visitors daily, indicating strong consumer interest [1] - Since the inception of the "ugly product" competition in 2020, related sales have exceeded 100 million yuan, with industry growth rates estimated to be in the double or triple digits [1] Industry Trends - Young Chinese consumers are driving the popularity of these unconventional products as they seek to express individuality and find affordable luxury items, a trend referred to as "emotional consumption" [1] - The phenomenon of emotional consumption is increasingly recognized as a "blue ocean" market in China, indicating a growing acceptance and demand for such products [1] - The success of quirky products, such as the cute yet odd toy "Labubu," exemplifies this trend, sparking a global buying frenzy [1] Consumer Perspectives - The exhibition prompted visitors to reflect on the definition of beauty, with some viewing these "ugly products" as a unique form of creativity and beauty [2] - A visitor noted that "ugliness can be another form of beauty," highlighting the creative potential embedded in these unconventional items [2]

Group 1: Global Financial Reset - The core theme for 2025 is a global financial reset, affecting asset prices, market expectations, and consumption patterns [2][4] - There is a significant shift in global capital flows, with a notable move away from U.S. Treasury bonds towards gold and cryptocurrencies, leading to substantial price increases [4][5] - The traditional belief in the safety of U.S. assets is being challenged, as global capital begins to diversify into other markets, including Europe and emerging markets [4][5] Group 2: Industry and Supply Chain Restructuring - The restructuring of global supply chains is driven by geopolitical tensions and trade wars, prompting capital to seek new safe havens [8] - Chinese companies are being re-evaluated in this context, with a focus on their resilience and ability to adapt to new global networks [8] - The trend of Chinese enterprises going global is becoming a consensus, with many companies looking to integrate into broader global supply chains [8][12] Group 3: Consumer Market Transformation - A new consumer structure is emerging in China, characterized by younger generations prioritizing personal expression and experiential consumption over traditional material values [10][12] - The shift in consumer values is leading to the rise of niche markets and smaller, more personalized products, reflecting a broader change in consumption narratives [10][12] - The transformation of the Chinese consumer market is indicative of a larger trend where growth is driven by diverse consumer preferences and values rather than mere market expansion [12][14]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes a "reset" in various sectors, including asset prices, market expectations, and consumer behavior, indicating a shift from old paradigms to new frameworks in 2025 [2]. Group 1: Global Financial Reset - The biggest variable in 2025 is the global financial reset, with a shift away from the belief that "US Treasuries are always safe" and "US stocks always rise" [4]. - Since Trump's presidency, global funds have hesitated, moving away from US Treasuries towards gold and Bitcoin, with gold and Bitcoin prices surging [4]. - In 2025, significant capital inflows have been observed in various markets, including over $900 billion into Europe and over $220 billion into emerging markets [5]. - The fragmentation and diversification of the global currency system are highlighted, with a shift in the definition of "safe assets" [5]. Group 2: Industry and Supply Chain Restructuring - The article discusses the reconfiguration of global supply chains due to trade wars and technological shifts, prompting capital to seek new safe havens [7]. - Chinese companies are being re-evaluated, with a focus on the resilience of RMB assets and the emergence of new consumer brands [7]. - The trend of "going global" is emphasized, with companies like Pop Mart and Mixue Ice City preparing for IPOs, indicating a shift in the narrative of Chinese enterprises [7]. Group 3: Consumer Market Transformation - A new consumer structure is emerging in China, driven by younger generations who prioritize individual expression and experiential consumption [9]. - The article notes a significant shift in consumer values, moving from functional consumption to a focus on "small, relaxed, and beautiful" products [9]. - The transformation of the consumer market reflects a broader change in values, with experiences and aesthetics becoming central to consumer narratives [10]. Group 4: Future Growth and Opportunities - The convergence of capital, supply chains, and consumer behavior in 2025 raises critical questions about future growth and opportunities [10]. - The article posits that growth will no longer rely on single market expansions but will be driven by the interplay of global capital flows, supply chains, and cultural consumption [10]. - The themes of "new world, new order, new wealth" are presented as emerging trends that will shape the future landscape [11].

Core Insights - The rise of trendy toys (潮玩) reflects a shift in consumer culture, evolving from niche collectibles to mainstream appeal, attracting a diverse audience across age groups [1][2] - The success of trendy toys is driven by innovative marketing strategies, including social media influence and the "surprise economy" created by blind box purchases [3][5] - The industry is experiencing significant growth, with companies focusing on IP development and creating engaging narratives to enhance consumer connection [5][6] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Trendy toys have transitioned from being popular among niche collectors to becoming a mainstream phenomenon, appealing to all demographics [1] - The character 拉布布 has gained immense popularity, becoming a cultural icon and even receiving a diplomatic title, showcasing the power of branding and celebrity endorsements [3] - The demand for creative and personalized products is increasing as consumers seek more than traditional toys, leading to a rise in the trendy toy market [2] Group 2: Consumer Engagement - The "surprise economy" through blind boxes enhances consumer excitement and encourages repeat purchases, as seen with 拉布布's popularity [3][5] - Social media plays a crucial role in promoting trendy toys, with unboxing videos and creative showcases driving interest and engagement among potential buyers [3] - The emotional connection consumers feel towards characters like NOOK highlights the importance of relatable storytelling in product design [2] Group 3: Industry Challenges - The secondary market for trendy toys is thriving, but issues such as scalping and counterfeit products threaten market integrity and consumer trust [6][7] - The rise of counterfeit products poses risks to brand reputation and consumer confidence, as buyers may unknowingly purchase fakes [7] - The industry must navigate challenges related to market fairness and product authenticity to sustain growth and consumer satisfaction [6][7] Group 4: Future Outlook - The trendy toy industry is expected to continue growing, with companies encouraged to invest in IP exploration and product innovation [5][6] - The shift from "Made in China" to "Created in China" signifies a broader cultural and economic evolution, positioning Chinese brands on the global stage [6] - The next decade presents both challenges and opportunities for the trendy toy industry, with a focus on developing unique paths for growth and consumer engagement [7]

Summary of the Conference Call for Pop Mart Company Overview - **Company**: Pop Mart - **Industry**: Toy and Collectibles Key Points and Arguments Financial Performance - Adjusted net profit for the first half of the year is expected to be no less than 450 million RMB, with a profit margin of 33.5%, an increase of 5 percentage points compared to the second half of last year, indicating enhanced profitability and a solid fundamental outlook [2][4] - The company anticipates significant growth in 2026 driven by channel expansion in the US and Europe, new IP launches, and sustained growth of existing IPs [3] Market Expansion - The company is accelerating its overseas expansion, adding 5-6 new stores in the US in July, with active openings in the European market, indicating a strong strategic focus on global market penetration [2][5] - The domestic market has exceeded expectations, with significant increases in foot traffic and per-store revenue, suggesting a "re-recognition" phenomenon among consumers [2][30] IP Development - The Labubu IP has surpassed many well-known IPs globally, achieving an annual revenue of 10 billion RMB, placing it in the third tier of global IPs, although its future development path requires attention [2][32] - Classic products have shown extended sales cycles, indicating stable and lasting demand, which will provide a solid revenue base for the company [2][11] Supply Chain and Inventory Management - The company has adopted a strategy of bulk replenishment to stabilize market prices and meet consumer demand, reflecting strong demand and potentially increasing EPS [2][9] - Frequent replenishment has become a normalized operational rhythm, with a significant impact on domestic revenue growth expected in Q1 2025 due to replenishment activities [9] Challenges and Market Dynamics - The recent market performance has been relatively stable despite fluctuations in stock prices due to shifts in investment focus towards new consumption and AI applications [4] - The company is addressing the decline in scalper prices due to concentrated replenishment of Labubu versions, which has altered supply-demand dynamics [8] Future Growth Strategies - The upcoming mid-year performance meeting is highly anticipated for insights on store opening pace, category expansion, and new IP plans [6] - The company plans to increase its store count in the US from 40-50 to around 200, while also expanding in Europe [34][35] Regional Market Insights - The Southeast Asian market has been a strong performer, with significant revenue contributions and new store openings in Thailand and Indonesia [29] - The European market is viewed as strategically important, with ongoing expansion and a focus on artist collaborations and limited edition products [27][28] Consumer Demographics and Market Penetration - The domestic toy market still has considerable penetration potential, with estimates suggesting that 200 million people could be potential consumers of trendy toys [31] - The company has approximately 46 million registered members in China, indicating significant room for growth in market penetration [31] Long-term IP Management - The Labubu IP has crossed the threshold of 10 billion RMB in global peripheral revenue, indicating its potential for long-term operation and growth [32][33] - The company is confident in the long-term operational capabilities of its IPs, supported by successful category expansions and market adaptations [33] Additional Important Insights - The company is exploring diverse operational formats to enhance brand influence, including opening jewelry stores and establishing theme parks [22] - The search heat for Pop Mart's IPs in various countries indicates strong market interest, with notable performance in Thailand and the Philippines [20][19] This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call, highlighting Pop Mart's financial performance, market strategies, IP development, and future growth potential.

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant changes in investment strategies among fund managers in response to the evolving dynamics of the Chinese stock market and the emergence of new economic sectors, leading to a shift in stock selection preferences and styles [2][5][7]. Group 1: Changes in Fund Managers' Strategies - Fund managers are increasingly abandoning their traditional preferences and styles, adapting to the new market conditions and the performance disparities between old and new sectors [2][5]. - Notable fund managers, such as Liu Gesong and Jiao Wei, have shifted their investment focus towards Hong Kong stocks and new economy sectors, indicating a departure from their previous investment styles [3][4]. - The trend of reallocating investments from traditional sectors to new economy sectors, such as innovative pharmaceuticals and consumer brands, is becoming prevalent among fund managers [5][6]. Group 2: Impact of Market Dynamics - The rapid increase in the attractiveness of the Chinese stock market and the global success of new economic sectors have prompted fund managers to reassess their traditional investment beliefs [5][6]. - The innovative pharmaceutical sector in China is highlighted as a key area of growth, with fund managers recognizing significant technological advancements and opportunities for investment [5][7]. - The changing narrative around Chinese consumption and technology is seen as a catalyst for new investment opportunities, with a focus on cultural exports and advancements in sectors like autonomous driving [7]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The recognition of China's technological capabilities and the evolving market logic are expected to influence major investment decisions in the stock market by 2025 [6][7]. - The re-evaluation of the value of Chinese innovation by international capital is driving a systematic correction in the allocation of foreign investments towards Chinese stocks [7].