风险提示：房地产走势不确定性仍存；政策力度不及预期。 "破局"通胀：反内卷与扩内需 [Table_Authors] 2025 年 6 月物价数据点评 本报告导读： 今年以来，"以旧换新"补贴政策持续支撑耐用消费品价格，带动核心 CPI 同比小幅 修复，而其中服务价格方面仍有待提振，指向了居民部门资产负债表的修复进展有 限，需要后续稳增长政策接续。 投资要点： 宏 观 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 宏 观 专 题 宏观研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.07.09 2025-07-13 [Table_Summary] 6 月 CPI 同比转正。食品价格拖累减弱；国际油价上涨输入带动能 源价格；核心 CPI 环比持平，核心消费品 CPI 环比表现显著好于 2023、 2024 年，"618"提前促销影响过去后，"以旧换新"政策支持的相关品 类价格仍相对偏强，而服务相关价格继续稳中偏弱。 6 月 PPI 同比跌幅继续扩张，一是受高温降雨天气影响，房地产、基 建项目施工进度有所放缓。二是"反内卷"具体政策和效果仍待观察， 尤其是对光伏、水泥、钢铁等行业实际供需格局的影响。三 ...

黄金市场今日上演了一场令人瞠目结舌的"飙升秀"！ | 全店名称 | 首饰名称 | 黄金饰品 | 首饰名称 | 铂金饰品 | 报价时间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 周大福 | 黄金饰品 | 998元/克 | 铂金饰品 | 548元/克 | 07月10日 | | 老凤祥 | 黄金饰品 | 1000元/克 | 铂金饰品 | 470元/克 | 07月10日 | | 周六福 | 黄金饰品 | 978元/克 | 铂金饰品 | 582元/克 | 07月10日 | | 周生生 | 黄金饰品 | 999元/克 | 铂金饰品 | 548元/克 | 07月10日 | | 周大生 | 黄金饰品 | 998元/克 | 铂金饰品 | 552元/克 | 07月10日 | | 六福珠宝 | 黄金饰品 | 998元/克 | 铂金饰品 | 548元/克 | 07月10日 | | 老庙 | 黄金饰品 | 996元/克 | 铂金饰品 | 470元/克 | 07月10日 | | 菜白 | 黄金饰品 | 978元/克 | 铂金饰品 | 412元/克 | 07月10日 | 推动金价上涨的因素错综复杂 ...

记者丨 吴抒颖 编辑丨骆一帆 上市之初威风了一阵的周六福，股价近期震荡下行。 2025年7月11日，周六福收于34.6港元/股，下挫7.49%，总市值为149.66亿港元。相比26.7港 元/股的开盘价，周六福当下的股价仍有不小涨幅，但与上市时被热捧相比，投资者的心态已 然变化。 上市之前，周六福热度颇高。 在认购阶段，周六福全球发售5382.92万股H股股份，香港公开 发售占43.48%，国际发售占56.52%。定价24港元/股，全球发售净筹约11.93亿港元。 周六福被热捧的外部因素之一，是老铺黄金股价屡创新高，市场寄望周六福成为下沉市场 的"王者"复制老铺黄金的奇迹，但它似乎"后劲不足"。上市仅两周余，周六福股价已经坐过山 车一般，冲上52.5港元/股的高点又迅速回落。 周六福走的是与老铺黄金完全不同的商业模式。 它的扩张主要通过加盟，而且没有自有工 厂，对加盟商是"合作"的关系，双方没有强绑定，加盟商的货品可以不全部从周六福采购，采 取了一种完全"轻资产"的卖品牌模式。 同时，从资本市场的实操角度，周六福股权过于集中以及上市前的突击分红，也为这家黄金饰 品企业未来的股价表现，罩上了不确定性。多重夹击下 ...

以下文章来源于投中网 ，作者纪佳文 投中网 . 投中网是领先的创新经济信息服务平台，拥有立体化传播矩阵，为创新经济人群提供深入、独到的智识 和洞见，在私募股权投资行业和创新商业领域拥有权威影响力。官网：www.chinaventure.com.cn 本文来自微信公众号： 投中网 （ID：China-Venture） ，作者：纪佳文，编辑：刘燕秋，题图来 自：AI生成 王宁刚拿到麦刚那200万元天使投资时，曾经激动地对麦刚说，"如果我是周杰伦，你就是吴宗宪"。 麦刚是不是吴宗宪我不知道，但那时王宁可能还是对周杰伦有些误解，因为他不会想到周杰伦在抖音 只是简单地开个账号，能让周母亲叶惠美是实控人的港股巨星时代，一天翻倍收盘超过百亿市值，能 让A股的"周杰伦"概念股集体躁动。 王宁的泡泡玛特、蜜雪和老铺集团，也在各个资本市场拥有自己的拥趸和概念股。"港股三姐妹"崛起 的故事，想必大家都耳濡目染一阵子了。 但我还一直特好奇一个事，新崛起的"港股三姐妹"为什么不是"三兄弟"？如果说是源自美股的"七姐 妹"，那她们一开始为什么不叫"七兄弟"？语言是思维的外放，甚至一想到如果有人把这三家崛起的 新消费公司称作"三兄弟"，我 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the recent decline in the stock price of Zhou Li Fu, which has experienced significant fluctuations since its IPO, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [1][5] - Zhou Li Fu's stock closed at 34.6 HKD per share, down 7.49%, with a total market capitalization of 14.966 billion HKD, reflecting a change in investor attitudes compared to its initial public offering [1] - The company initially generated excitement due to the high performance of its competitor, Lao Pu Gold, but has struggled to maintain momentum, with its stock price peaking at 52.5 HKD before falling [1][5] Group 2 - Zhou Li Fu operates a franchise model with over 97% of its 4,129 stores being franchisee-owned, which has contributed significantly to its revenue but lacks strong brand loyalty [3][4] - The revenue from product sales to franchisees and service fees has been substantial, with figures of approximately 843 million, 2.02 billion, and 2.041 billion HKD from product sales in 2022 to 2024, respectively [4] - The franchise agreement typically lasts one year and does not prevent franchisees from partnering with other brands, which may dilute brand strength [4][5] Group 3 - The company's stock ownership is highly concentrated, with the founder and his brother holding 83.4% of the voting power, raising concerns about governance and future performance [2][5] - Zhou Li Fu's pre-IPO dividend payouts, totaling 645 million HKD in 2024, primarily benefited the major shareholders, further complicating investor confidence [5] - Despite challenges, there are opportunities in the gold jewelry market, particularly in the mid-to-low-end segments, which require improvements in product design, quality control, and marketing strategies [6]

Group 1: Consumer Price Index (CPI) Analysis - In June, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Guangdong showed a year-on-year decline of 0.4%, consistent with the previous month, while the month-on-month decline expanded [2][3] - Food prices decreased by 1.0% year-on-year, with a larger decline of 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month, contributing approximately 0.20 percentage points to the CPI decline [2] - Non-food prices also saw a year-on-year decrease of 0.3%, maintaining the same decline as the previous month, impacting the CPI by about 0.21 percentage points [2] Group 2: Producer Price Index (PPI) Analysis - In June, the Producer Price Index (PPI) in Guangdong experienced a year-on-year decline of 1.8%, with the decline remaining unchanged from the previous month [4] - The prices of production materials fell by 2.5% year-on-year, while living materials saw a decrease of 0.4%, affecting the overall PPI by 1.63 and 0.12 percentage points respectively [4] - The PPI showed a month-on-month decline of 0.3%, with production materials prices decreasing by 0.4% and living materials prices down by 0.1% [5]

本报（chinatimes.net.cn）记者张智 北京报道 连续下降4个月后，CPI调头转升。 国家统计局7月9日发布数据显示，6月，CPI同比上涨0.1%，是连续下降4个月后首次转升；环比下降 0.1%，降幅收窄。PPI同比下降3.6%，环比下降0.4%。从上半年总体来看，CPI比去年同期下降0.1%， PPI较去年同期下降2.8%。 对于当前总体物价形势，民生银行首席经济学家兼研究院院长温彬对《华夏时报》记者表示，在输入性 因素的支撑下，6月CPI边际有所改善，但PPI持续承压，整体物价低位运行态势不改，显示国内有效需 求有待进一步提振。 "政策层面，'反内卷'措施逐步落地，光伏、锂电等行业价格在6月探底，政策拐点显现，预计后续价格 将出现修复性反弹。"华西证券宏观首席分析师肖金川对本报记者表示。 CPI同比回升 从同比来看，6月CPI上涨0.1%，为连续下降4个月后转升。 "食品价格降幅小于季节性。受高温、降雨较常年同期偏多影响，食品价格环比下降0.4%，降幅小于季 节性水平0.5个百分点。6月CPI环比上涨0.1%，食品价格跌幅较往年同期明显收窄，鲜菜价格大幅上 涨，显示季节性及政策干预对CPI形成 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the financial success of Pop Mart, highlighting the significant wealth generated for its founder, early investors, and institutional funds due to the company's soaring stock price and market capitalization [2][4][19]. Group 1: Company Performance - Pop Mart's stock price has seen a substantial increase, reaching a market capitalization of approximately 300 billion RMB, with a revenue of 13.038 billion RMB in the previous year, marking a year-on-year growth of 106.9% [2]. - The net profit for the previous year was 3.125 billion RMB, reflecting a remarkable year-on-year increase of 188.8% [2]. - In the first quarter of 2025, Pop Mart reported a revenue increase of 165%-170% year-on-year, with a market capitalization growth of about 200% [2]. Group 2: Wealth Generation for Founders and Executives - The founder of Pop Mart, Wang Ning, and his family have amassed significant wealth, exceeding 20 billion USD (approximately 143.7 billion RMB) as the company's market value surpassed 360 billion RMB [7]. - Wang Ning began cashing out shortly after the company's IPO, selling 13.042 million shares for approximately 740 million HKD [7][8]. - Other executives, including COO Si De and Executive Director Wen De Yi, also realized gains through share sales, with Si De selling 2.1 million shares for about 151 million HKD [9][10]. Group 3: Early Investors' Gains - Early investors in Pop Mart, including those with a long-term investment perspective, have also benefited significantly from the company's growth [12]. - Notable early investors include Chuangyue Capital, which invested 2 million RMB for a 16% stake, and Hummingbird Capital, which made substantial investments in various funding rounds [14][16]. - The founder of Hummingbird Capital, Tu Zheng, realized a total cash-out of approximately 2.267 billion HKD (about 2.111 billion RMB) after initially investing 550 million HKD [16]. Group 4: Institutional Investors' Benefits - Numerous funds have profited from Pop Mart's stock price increase, with 57 fund companies holding a total of 68.75 million shares as of the first quarter of 2025 [20]. - Prominent funds such as Invesco and China Southern have significant holdings in Pop Mart, with some fund managers actively reducing their positions to lock in profits [21][23]. - The article notes that even fixed-income funds have begun to invest in Pop Mart, indicating a broad interest in the company's stock [23]. Group 5: Future Prospects - Pop Mart aims to expand beyond being a toy company, aspiring to become a "cultural ecosystem builder" by developing a global membership system and diversifying its business [24]. - The company reported a revenue of 5.066 billion RMB from Hong Kong, Macau, and overseas markets in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 375.2% [24]. - Recent developments include the launch of a jewelry brand named POPOP, indicating Pop Mart's intent to broaden its commercial boundaries [24].

关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 文 | 赵伟、屠强 联系人 | 屠强、 耿佩璇 摘要 事件： 7月9日，国家统计局公布6月通胀数据，CPI同比0.1%、前值-0.1%、预期0%、环比-0.1%；PPI同 比-3.6%、前值-3.3%、预期-3.2%、环比-0.4%。 核心观点：大宗商品、核心商品、服务价格表现分化，令CPI与PPI"一升一降"。 分化一：6月PPI上游煤、钢等大宗商品价格回落，而CPI上游食品、铂金等大宗价格走强。 6月PPI同比 较前月回落0.3pct至-3.6%。其中钢材、水泥、煤炭等供给充足，测算钢、煤价格拖累PPI环比-0.4%；但 国际油价上行对国内油价形成支撑，铜价贡献依然为正，测算油、铜价格支撑PPI环比0.2%。CPI方面，6 月CPI同比0.1%。一是极端天气影响食品供给，食品CPI同比+0.1pct至-0.3%；二是金价保持高位，铂金饰 品价格上涨12.6%，对应包含首饰等其他用品及服务CPI同比上行0.8pct。 分化二：核心商品PPI仍在历史低位，既反映关税对价格的冲击，也与国内中下游产能利用率偏低有关。 6月核心商品PPI同比虽回升0.4pct至-1%，但整体仍在低位 ...

关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 文 | 赵伟、屠强 联系人 | 屠强、 耿佩璇 摘要 事件： 7月9日，国家统计局公布6月通胀数据，CPI同比0.1%、前值-0.1%、预期0%、环比-0.1%；PPI同 比-3.6%、前值-3.3%、预期-3.2%、环比-0.4%。 核心观点：大宗商品、核心商品、服务价格表现分化，令CPI与PPI"一升一降"。 分化一：6月PPI上游煤、钢等大宗商品价格回落，而CPI上游食品、铂金等大宗价格走强。 6月PPI同比 较前月回落0.3pct至-3.6%。其中钢材、水泥、煤炭等供给充足，测算钢、煤价格拖累PPI环比-0.4%；但 国际油价上行对国内油价形成支撑，铜价贡献依然为正，测算油、铜价格支撑PPI环比0.2%。CPI方面，6 月CPI同比0.1%。一是极端天气影响食品供给，食品CPI同比+0.1pct至-0.3%；二是金价保持高位，铂金饰 品价格上涨12.6%，对应包含首饰等其他用品及服务CPI同比上行0.8pct。 分化二：核心商品PPI仍在历史低位，既反映关税对价格的冲击，也与国内中下游产能利用率偏低有关。 6月核心商品PPI同比虽回升0.4pct至-1%，但整体仍在低位 ...