固定收益组 甘青 从业资格号 F03124127 投资咨询号 Z0023461 固定收益组 程小庆 2026-01-05 从业资格号 F3083989 投资咨询业务资格: 证监许可【2012】669号 投资咨询号 Z0018635 政府债发行追踪 -- 2025年第53周 截至12/31,新增一般债发行进度为96.3% 2019年 -2022年 2020年 2021年 2023年 2024年 ·2025年 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 | 本周地方债净融资规模为174亿，环比增加206亿，下周计划净融资1177亿 | | | --- | --- | | 亿元 | ■2025年 ■过去2年平均 | | 5000 г | | 截至12/31,新增地方债发行进度为103.1% 2019年 2022年 2020年 2021年 2023年 2024年 ·2025年 120% г 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 15 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观专题】 "开门红"的三条财政线索：收入、债务、项目 ❖ 核心结论 2026 年是"十五五"开局之年，市场关注经济"开门红"成色。 我们由年末三条财政线索——收入（构成财政支出）、债务（构成财政支出）、 项目（前瞻政府投资）初步探究， 2026 年"开门红"或相对温和、凸显"跨 周期"调节（1 月中下旬或是下一个评估节点）。 要判断财政收入能否"开门红"，即分别判断一本账收入、二本账收入在 2026 年年初是否有明显的上行动能。 （二）结论：2026 年年初财政收入或不会明显上行 对于以卖地收入为主的二本账收入，2026 年年初或更偏下行风险，而非上行 动能（详见正文）。 对于以税收收入为主的一本账收入，2026 年年初或不会明显上行，主要是 2025 年年底的收入甩尾效应或不明显。 （三）分析：2025 年收入甩尾效应或不明显→26Q1 收入额外上行动能或不足 什么是收入甩尾效应？指年末一本账收入完成全年预算压力不大时，将收入 延至次年入库、导致次年年初收入高增的行为——如此，财政不仅可以避免抬 升收入基数、降低次年收入目标完成难度，还可跨年度平滑收入，实现次年"开 门红"。 如 ...

Report Title Localized Debt Resolution Series IV: Usage Characteristics and Outlook of New Local Bond Quotas in 2025 [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the content. 2. Report Core View - The risk prevention function of new local bonds is strengthening, weakening the negative impact of government bond supply on the bond market. This is reflected in the highest proportion of new local bond quotas allocated to self - reviewed and self - issued provinces, slower issuance progress of new local bonds, and a significant decline in the proportion of project construction bonds [2]. - In 2025, the government may not advance the use of the 2026 hidden debt replacement quota. The net financing of local bonds in November and December may be roughly equal. In 2026, fiscal policy may emphasize sustainability, leading to a stable decline in government debt increments, with a more significant decline in local debt increments. The issuance of new local bonds may accelerate compared to 2025, potentially increasing government bond supply in the first quarter of 2026 [3]. 3. Summary by Directory PART1: 2025 New Local Bond Regional Allocation and Issuance Progress 1.1 Limit Allocation - In the past two years, more new local bond quotas have been allocated to self - reviewed and self - issued provinces, reducing the impact of government bond supply on the bond market. The decline in the supply of new bonds in key provinces reduces the supply of high - coupon assets [9]. - The average growth rate of new local bond quotas in self - reviewed and self - issued provinces in the past two years has exceeded the national average. Key provinces have seen a restorative increase in quotas this year, but their average growth rate in the past two years remains negative. Ten provinces have experienced negative growth in new local bond quotas in the past two years, mostly key provinces [12]. 1.2 Issuance Progress - This year, the issuance of new local bonds has been slow, while the issuance of special refinancing bonds has been fast, aiming to strengthen risk prevention. The slow issuance of new local bonds may be due to staggered issuance with national bonds and special refinancing bonds, and a decrease in the pressure to stabilize growth [13]. - The issuance of non - project construction new local bonds has been fast, while that of project construction new local bonds has been slow, also strengthening the risk prevention function of new bonds [19]. - This year, the issuance progress of new local bonds in self - reviewed and self - issued provinces has been faster than that in other provinces and has accelerated compared to 2024. The issuance speed of new local bonds in key and other provinces has decreased compared to 2024, possibly due to an increase in their risk prevention tasks [22]. PART2: 2025 New Features of New Local Bond Usage 2.1 Two Major Categories - This year, many provinces have divided new special bonds into three uses, corresponding to two major categories: non - project construction (including supplementing fund financial resources and clearing arrears) and project construction. The proportions of these three uses are 24.6%, 16.7%, and 58.7% respectively. The proportion of project construction limits in key provinces is significantly lower [28]. - From January to October this year, the proportion of project construction bonds in the issuance of new local bonds was only 73%, a continuous decline for three years, indicating a weakening of the growth - stabilizing function of new local bonds. The proportion of project construction bonds in key provinces is the lowest, and the proportions in all three types of provinces are on a downward trend [33]. - The new or restarted sub - uses of project construction bonds this year are mainly land reserves, indicating a decline in the growth - stabilizing function of project construction special bonds. Non - project construction bonds have a new use of solving government arrears to enterprises [35]. 2.2.1 Project Construction Category - Compared with the whole year of 2024, the proportion of land reserves in project construction special bonds in the first 10 months of this year has increased by 14 percentage points, the proportion of infrastructure has decreased by 15 percentage points, the proportion of affordable housing has remained stable, government investment funds have emerged from scratch, and the proportion of new infrastructure has increased slightly [39]. 2.2.2 Project Construction Category - The restart of land reserve bonds in 2025 was originally intended to recover existing land, but in reality, they are mostly used for new land reserves. As of October 22, only 33% of the special bonds issued this year for land reserves were used for existing land reserves [43][47]. - Self - reviewed and self - issued provinces are the main issuers of land reserve bonds this year. Non - pilot provinces started issuing land reserve bonds in October, possibly due to the impact of central government approval speed [43]. 2.2.3 Project Construction Category - The scale of special bonds used for the acquisition of existing housing in 2025 is only 101 billion yuan. The scale of special bonds for the acquisition of existing housing and land is low, and they mostly target local state - owned enterprises, so their effect on reducing inventory and protecting real estate enterprises is weak [48]. 2.2.4 Project Construction Category - Using special bonds for government investment funds is beneficial for supporting science and technology innovation. This year, the scale of such special bonds may be about 125 billion yuan. Their impact on the bond market is limited [52][57]. 2.3.1 Non - Project Construction Category - The uses of debt - repayment new special bonds have expanded this year, and the scale has increased. "Solving government arrears to enterprises" and "supplementing government fund financial resources" are essentially debt - repayment, but the types of debts repaid are different [58]. - It is estimated that 567.9 billion yuan of arrears - clearing special bonds will be issued this year. From 2026 to 2028, 1367.9 billion, 1083.9 billion, and 800 billion yuan of new special bonds may be used for debt - repayment respectively [64]. 2.3.2 Non - Project Construction Category - Only 26 billion yuan of special bonds for capital replenishment of small and medium - sized banks were issued in the first 10 months of this year, and there is still a remaining quota of 20 billion yuan. Such bonds may be issued again by the end of this year [65]. PART3: In - Year and 2026 Outlook 3.1 In - Year Outlook - The progress of using the remaining quota is slow, so it is unlikely that the government will advance the use of the 2026 hidden debt replacement quota this year. Considering the remaining quota, the net financing of local bonds in November and December may be roughly equal, about 516.4 billion and 516.7 billion yuan respectively [75]. 3.2 2026 Outlook - The first year of the Five - Year Plan does not necessarily correspond to fiscal stimulus. It mainly depends on the pressure to stabilize growth. From a historical perspective, the first year of the Five - Year Plan does not always see fiscal stimulus [76]. - In 2026, fiscal policy may emphasize sustainability, leading to a stable decline in government debt increments. The proportion of local debt in incremental government debt may decline [84]. - The government debt increment in 2026 may be 14 trillion yuan, a decrease of about 0.3 trillion yuan compared to 2025. The local debt increment may be 7.2 trillion yuan, a decrease of about 0.5 trillion yuan compared to 2025 [87]. - The issuance of new local bonds in 2026 may accelerate compared to this year, and the issuance of debt - repayment new bonds may be more front - loaded, potentially increasing government bond supply in the first quarter of 2026 [88]. - The proportion of new local bonds used for project construction in 2026 may decline slightly compared to 2025, weakening the growth - stabilizing function. The scale of project construction special bonds used for new infrastructure and government investment funds may increase, but their impact on economic growth may be limited [94].