全球啤酒行业正经历从周期性波动到结构性转变的深刻变革 智通财经APP获悉，海通国际发布研报称，全球啤酒行业正经历从周期性波动到结构性转变的深刻变 革，健康意识觉醒与代际消费变迁成为核心驱动因素，酿啤酒与无酒精啤酒快速崛起，持续蚕食传统啤 酒市场份额。与此同时，软饮料销量保持稳健增长，对酒精饮料形成持续分流。中国企业国际化尚处初 级阶段，未来应采取稳健策略：先通过出口试水市场反应，优先布局"一带一路"国家；采用合资模式借 力本土资源，设定准入门槛，避免激进并购。全球啤酒龙头的发展经验表明，运营效率是当前中国酒企 最可行的突破点。 海通国际主要观点如下： 国际化：模式选择与风险管控 国际化是突破本土市场天花板的关键路径，且国际化程度高的企业估值显著溢价。百威英博四次关键并 购成为全球霸主，喜力在70个国家市场份额排名前二，海外收入占比达78%。朝日通过收购欧洲与澳洲 业务，实现55%的海外收入占比；麒麟则因本土化不足与政治风险评估缺失，在巴西、缅甸等地投资遭 遇重大损失。 中国企业国际化尚处初级阶段，2024年啤酒出口仅占产量2%。未来应采取稳健策略：先通过出口试水 市场反应，优先布局"一带一路"国家；采用合资模 ...

Core Insights - The beer industry is undergoing a significant transformation, facing challenges but also unprecedented opportunities [1] - Despite pressures from rising living costs and regulatory complexities, certain segments within the industry are experiencing remarkable growth [1] Non-Alcoholic Beer: The Rise of the "Sober Trend" - Low-alcohol and non-alcoholic beers have emerged as the most dynamic growth areas in the industry, driven by a profound shift in consumer behavior [2] - Non-alcoholic beer is the fastest-growing category globally, maintaining a double-digit annual growth rate [2] Consumer Preferences and Premiumization - Young consumers are increasingly seeking a balance between social enjoyment and sobriety, making non-alcoholic beer a perfect fit for their needs [4] - There is a notable trend of "consumer polarization," where traditional mass-market beers face pressure, while craft and specialty beers with unique stories and characteristics attract loyal followers [5] Ingredient Innovation: A Silent Revolution - The beer industry is witnessing a revolution in its fundamental ingredients, with breweries exploring non-traditional grains like sorghum and corn to innovate flavors and address supply chain risks [7] - The use of ancient grains and local ingredients creates unique flavor profiles, enhancing brand differentiation and connecting beer with regional culture and sustainability [9] Future Directions: Collaboration, Innovation, and Policy Advocacy - Industry collaboration is essential to navigate supply chain volatility and complex global policies, with a call for supportive policy frameworks that foster innovation and sustainability [10] - The beer industry is finding a new balance through the rise of non-alcoholic products, ongoing premiumization, and ingredient innovation, pointing towards a more diverse and health-conscious consumer era [10]

Core Insights - The Munich Beer Festival, attracting approximately 6.7 million visitors, generates an economic value of around €1.57 billion, showcasing its cultural significance and economic impact [1][7]. Pricing Trends - The average price of beer at this year's festival has increased by approximately 3.52% compared to 2024, ranging from €14.50 to €15.80 per liter, more than doubling from €6.80 in 2005 [3][5]. - Non-alcoholic beverages have also seen significant price increases, with food items like half a roasted chicken priced around €20 and traditional Bavarian meals exceeding €30 per person [3][5]. Cost Pressures on Breweries - German breweries are facing substantial cost pressures, with production costs rising at an average annual rate of about 6% since 2020, driven by raw materials, packaging, and labor costs [5][6]. - The gap between production costs and retail prices has created a "scissors gap" of approximately 12 percentage points, severely impacting profitability [5]. Economic Impact of the Festival - The festival's economic benefits extend beyond the event itself, with an estimated 60% of the revenue generated from spending in the wider Munich area, including hotels, restaurants, and retail [7]. - The festival is expected to create around 13,000 jobs, highlighting its role as a significant economic driver for the city [7]. Changing Consumption Patterns - Beer consumption in Germany has declined by 35% over the past 31 years, while the non-alcoholic beer market has experienced rapid growth, with sales of non-alcoholic Pilsner increasing by about 9% in the first half of 2025 [6].

Core Insights - Germany, known for its high density of breweries, is experiencing a significant decline in beer consumption, with a 6.3% drop in sales in the first half of the year compared to the same period last year, totaling 3.9 billion liters, marking the first time in over 30 years that sales fell below 4 billion liters in six months [1][2] - The decline in beer consumption is attributed to demographic changes and economic issues, exacerbated by the trade war initiated by the United States, leading many breweries to struggle for survival [1] - Despite the overall decline in beer consumption, the non-alcoholic beer segment is thriving, with non-alcoholic beer accounting for about 25% of beer consumption, and production of non-alcoholic beer reaching 579 million liters last year, nearly double that of a decade ago [1] Industry Trends - The beer culture remains integral to German life, serving as a social activity and a means to relax, particularly in beer gardens and bars [2] - The upcoming Oktoberfest season is expected to attract over 6 million tourists, although beer prices are set to rise, with fresh beer costing between 14 to 16 euros per liter [2]