研究报告 Research Report 30 Nov 2025 百度集团-SW Baidu (9888 HK) 集中资源专注 AI 发展和变现；萝卜快跑价值将释放 Concentrate resources on the development and monetization of AI; Apollo Go help unlock valuation [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus [Table_Info] 首次覆盖优于大市 Initiate with OUTPERFORM 评级 优于大市 OUTPERFORM 现价 HK$113.80 目标价 HK$171.00 HTI ESG 5.0-5.0-5.0 E-S-G: 0-5, (Please refer to the Appendix for ESG comments) 市值 HK$262.80bn / US$33.78bn 日交易额 (3 个月均值) US$320.19mn 发行股票数目 2,309mn 自由流通股 (%) 96% 1 年股价最高最低值 HK$139.20-HK$75.50 注：现价 HK$1 ...

机构：长城证券 研究员：侯宾 智能驾驶业务实现全球拓张，萝卜快跑自动驾驶订单同比增长212%。百度集团25Q3 萝卜快跑自动驾驶 营运订单达到310 万单，同比增速较25Q2 的148%加速至212%。25M10 萝卜快跑每周平均全无人自动 驾驶营运订单超过25 万单；截至25M11 萝卜快跑累计为公众提供的自动驾驶出行服务订单超过1700 万 单。全球拓张方面，截至25M10，萝卜快跑全球业务覆盖城市已从上一季度的16 个增至22 个，在欧 洲、中东和香港市场均取得了显著进展，我们认为随公司无人驾驶规模扩大，该业务UE 有望持续改 善。目前，无人驾驶业务已有少数城市实现了正向UE，随公司运营规模持续扩大，更多城市有望实现 UE 转正。我们认为公司无人驾驶业务处于全球领先地位，未来该业务有望维持（1）出行订单量和收 入规模快速增长；（2）持续向新市场进行扩张；（3）加速应用新车型，从而推动该业务实现长期盈 利。 投资建议：公司积极探索AI 搜索商业化方式，同时智能云、自动驾驶等业务维持高速增长，我们预计 2025-2027 年公司实现营收1297/1355/1439 亿元；经调整归母净利润195/198/23 ...

Core Insights - Baidu's third-quarter report revealed a significant revenue decline of 7% year-on-year, marking the largest single-quarter drop in its history, with a net loss of 11.2 billion yuan [2][3] - Despite a 50% increase in AI-related revenue to 10 billion yuan, this growth was insufficient to offset the decline in traditional business segments, particularly online marketing, which saw a 19% drop [2][3][6] - The company is facing intense competition from rivals like ByteDance and Alibaba, leading to a painful transition period for its AI strategy [2][4] Revenue Performance - Baidu's core search advertising revenue fell by 19%, indicating a fundamental challenge to its traditional business model [3] - In contrast, the overall Chinese internet advertising market grew by 6.4% during the same period, with competitors like Tencent and Bilibili experiencing revenue growth of 21% and 23% respectively [3][4] Market Position and User Behavior - Advertisers are shifting their budgets towards platforms that offer shorter conversion paths, such as e-commerce and short video platforms, which has led to Baidu's marginalization [4] - User search habits are changing, with more users opting for platforms like Xiaohongshu and Douyin for information, resulting in Baidu's media position index dropping to ninth place [5] Cost Structure and Profitability - Baidu's revenue costs increased by 12% year-on-year, with sales and administrative expenses rising by 14%, primarily due to investments in AI cloud infrastructure [5][6] - The rising costs are squeezing profit margins, as the company spends more to generate revenue, making it difficult for AI business growth to compensate for losses in traditional advertising [6] Strategic Execution Challenges - Baidu's historical tendency to lag behind competitors in execution, despite early recognition of AI's potential, has hindered its ability to capitalize on its technological advancements [7][9] - The company has struggled to transform its AI capabilities into competitive consumer products, with its AI applications showing slow growth and low user engagement compared to rivals [7][8] Future Directions - Baidu is attempting to pivot towards an "Orion AI Engine" to shift its search model from traditional link retrieval to task-oriented solutions, aiming to maintain relevance in the AI era [8] - The company must transition from an advertising-centric model to one focused on user value and product experience to avoid further marginalization [9]

Core Insights - Baidu reported a revenue of 31.2 billion yuan for Q3 2025, a year-on-year decline of 7.1% [1] - The company is focusing on AI transformation, with approximately 70% of search result pages now containing AI-generated content [1] - Baidu's AI business is approaching a revenue scale of nearly 10 billion yuan, with significant growth in various AI segments [2] Financial Performance - Baidu's core revenue was 24.7 billion yuan, down 7.0% year-on-year, with online marketing services revenue at 15.3 billion yuan, down 18.4%, and non-online marketing services revenue at 9.3 billion yuan, up 20.4% [1] - iQIYI reported a revenue of 6.7 billion yuan, a decline of 7.8% year-on-year [1] - Non-GAAP operating profit and net profit for Baidu were 2.2 billion yuan and 3.8 billion yuan, respectively, with non-GAAP operating profit margin and net profit margin at 9.0% and 15.6% [1] AI Business Update - The AI business includes three main segments: 1. Intelligent cloud infrastructure, generating 4.2 billion yuan in revenue, up 33% year-on-year [2] 2. AI applications, with revenue of 2.6 billion yuan, up 6% [2] 3. AI native marketing services, achieving 2.8 billion yuan in revenue, up 262% [2] Autonomous Driving - The autonomous driving service "萝卜快跑" achieved 3.1 million orders, a year-on-year increase of 212%, with an average of over 250,000 orders per week in October [3] - The service has expanded globally, with operations in 22 cities and partnerships with international transport operators [3] Future Projections - Revenue projections for Baidu from 2025 to 2027 are estimated at 128.3 billion yuan, 137.7 billion yuan, and 148.0 billion yuan, respectively, with non-GAAP net profits of 19.5 billion yuan, 19.6 billion yuan, and 23.8 billion yuan [3] - Target prices set at 147 HKD for Baidu's Hong Kong stock and 151 USD for its US stock, with a reiteration of a "buy" rating [3]

Core Insights - SF Holding (002352.SZ) is transitioning from a leading express delivery company to a comprehensive logistics service provider, leveraging its strong control over the entire logistics chain and heavy asset layout to maintain service quality and brand influence [3] - The company has achieved significant cost reductions, totaling over 3.8 billion yuan since 2021, through multi-network integration and operational transformations [3][4] - The "activation operation" strategy has led to a sustained monthly volume growth of over 30% in 2025, although there is still room for profit margin optimization due to prior investments [4] Summary by Sections Company Overview - SF Holding is recognized as a direct express delivery leader, with a robust logistics network built on its direct operation model [3] - The company is expected to see supply chain and international business become its second growth curve [3] Cost Management - The integration of multiple networks has enabled resource reuse and cost reduction across the logistics chain, with a cumulative cost reduction of over 3.8 billion yuan since 2021 [3] - Operational changes, including optimization of transfer efficiency and automation, have contributed to ongoing cost improvements [3] Growth Potential - The company anticipates structural efficiency improvements and cost reductions in Q4 2025, with a forecast of stable net profit growth for the year [4] - SF Holding is positioned to benefit from economic recovery, which is expected to enhance its profit elasticity in the medium to long term [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Baidu Group (09888.HK) with a target price of HKD 147 and USD 151 for BIDU.O [3] Core Insights - Baidu's revenue for Q3 2025 was CNY 31.2 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 7.1%. The core revenue was CNY 24.7 billion, down 7.0%, with online marketing services declining by 18.4% to CNY 15.3 billion, while non-online marketing services grew by 20.4% to CNY 9.3 billion [1] - The AI business is showing significant growth, with total revenue nearing CNY 10 billion. The segments include intelligent cloud infrastructure (CNY 4.2 billion, up 33%), AI applications (CNY 2.6 billion, up 6%), and AI-native marketing services (CNY 2.8 billion, up 262%) [2] - Baidu's autonomous driving service, "Luobo Kuaipao," achieved 3.1 million orders, a 212% increase year-on-year, with 100% of its operational cities in China now offering fully autonomous driving [3] Financial Performance - For 2025, Baidu's projected revenue is CNY 128.3 billion, with a non-GAAP net profit of CNY 19.5 billion. The revenue growth rates are expected to be -3.6% in 2025, followed by a recovery of 7.3% in 2026 and 7.4% in 2027 [5][16] - The non-GAAP operating profit margin is projected to be 9.0% for 2025, with a non-GAAP net profit margin of 15.6% [1] - The report outlines a decline in online marketing services revenue, with expectations of a continued decrease of 12.5% in 2025, while intelligent cloud and other services are expected to grow significantly [16] Business Segments - Baidu's core business is expected to generate CNY 105.6 billion in revenue by 2025, with online marketing services projected to decline while intelligent cloud services are anticipated to grow [16] - The report highlights that approximately 70% of Baidu's search result pages now include AI-generated content, indicating a strong push towards AI integration in its core services [1] Market Position - Baidu's market capitalization is approximately HKD 304 billion, with a total share count of 2.83 billion shares, of which 97.05% are freely tradable [6] - The report emphasizes Baidu's strategic partnerships and global expansion efforts in the autonomous driving sector, including collaborations with international transport operators [3]

Core Insights - The report from Dongwu Securities highlights the positive impact of AI on Baidu Group's business, emphasizing the company's commitment to shareholder returns through ongoing buybacks and maintaining a "buy" rating. The third quarter showed comprehensive growth, driven by a 21% year-on-year increase in AI cloud revenue and a significant surge in AI-native marketing services revenue, which has become a new engine for advertising business [1]. Group 1: AI Cloud Business Growth - The strong demand for AI services and Baidu's full-stack AI capabilities, along with the ramp-up of self-developed AI chips, are driving rapid growth in the company's AI cloud business. In Q3 2025, Baidu's AI cloud revenue reached 6.2 billion, a 21% year-on-year increase, with intelligent cloud infrastructure revenue at 4.2 billion, up 33% [2]. - The company is solidifying its computing power foundation through self-developed capabilities, supporting stable operations for large model training and inference, which helps various industries internalize AI capabilities at manageable costs [2]. Group 2: AI Native Marketing Services - The revenue from AI-native marketing services, including intelligent agents and digital humans, reached 2.8 billion in Q3, marking a 262% year-on-year increase and accounting for 18% of Baidu's core online marketing revenue, up from 4% in Q3 2024 [3]. - The growth of AI-native advertising services is expected to contribute positively to the company's advertising business stability in the long term [3]. Group 3: Autonomous Driving Business Expansion - The autonomous driving service "萝卜快跑" recorded 3.1 million fully autonomous driving orders in Q3, a 212% year-on-year increase, with an average of over 250,000 weekly orders in October. As of November, the service has completed over 17 million cumulative orders [4]. - Following successful domestic operations, the company is accelerating its global expansion, having received the first commercial operation license for fully autonomous driving in Abu Dhabi, marking its first large-scale operation outside China [4].

Core Viewpoint - The company is experiencing short-term performance pressure due to a slowdown in advertising revenue, with core revenue in Q3 2025 at 24.7 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 7% [1]. Revenue Breakdown - Online marketing revenue decreased by 18% year-on-year to 15.3 billion CNY, while non-online marketing revenue increased by 21% to 9.3 billion CNY [1]. - The change in revenue structure has led to a decline in gross margin, which was 47.3% in Q3 2025, down 11.5 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - Sales expenses increased by 14%, and the company recognized a 16.2 billion CNY impairment on certain assets that did not meet current efficiency standards, resulting in a core operating loss of 15 billion CNY and an adjusted net profit of 3.8 billion CNY for Q3 2025 [1]. AI Business Performance - The company disclosed its high-potential AI business revenue for the first time, with Q3 AI revenue surpassing 10 billion CNY [2]. - AI Cloud revenue reached 4.2 billion CNY in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 33%, with subscription revenue from AI high-performance computing facilities growing by 128% [2]. - AI applications, including Baidu Wenku and Baidu Wangpan, generated 2.6 billion CNY in revenue, up 6% year-on-year [2]. - AI native marketing services, including intelligent agents and digital humans, generated 2.8 billion CNY, a significant year-on-year increase of 262% [2]. - AI native marketing services now account for 18% of the company's core advertising revenue, indicating potential for further growth as AI search commercializes [2]. Autonomous Driving Expansion - The company’s autonomous driving service, "Luobo Kuaipao," has achieved 3.1 million orders in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 212%, with growth accelerating compared to Q2 [2]. - As of October, "Luobo Kuaipao" has expanded to 22 cities globally, with weekly order volume exceeding 250,000 [2]. - The company plans to continue rapid expansion through self-operated or third-party collaboration models, aiming to accumulate safety data and iterate technology to create a virtuous cycle of technology, data, and scale [2]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - Given the decline in traditional online marketing and the nascent stage of AI new business, the company forecasts adjusted net profits of 19.3 billion CNY, 19.5 billion CNY, and 22 billion CNY for 2025-2027 [3]. - Using a PE valuation method and referencing comparable companies, a 16x PE valuation for 2026 suggests a reasonable value of 311.7 billion CNY, equivalent to 342.5 billion HKD, with a target price of 124.52 HKD per share, maintaining a "buy" rating [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Baidu Group-SW (09888.HK) [1] Core Views - Baidu's AI infrastructure capabilities are leading, and the company is expected to see significant commercialization opportunities in its AI business [1][8] - The company's AI cloud business is experiencing rapid growth, driven by strong demand for AI solutions and the advantages of its full-stack AI capabilities [7][8] - Baidu's AI native marketing services are increasingly penetrating traditional advertising, contributing to revenue growth [7][8] - The autonomous driving business is accelerating its globalization, which is anticipated to become a new growth curve for the company [7][8] Financial Forecasts - Total revenue projections for Baidu are as follows: - 2023: 134,598 million - 2024: 133,125 million - 2025: 129,495 million - 2026: 136,140 million - 2027: 142,409 million - Year-on-year growth rates for total revenue are expected to be 8.83% in 2023, -1.09% in 2024, -2.73% in 2025, 5.13% in 2026, and 4.60% in 2027 [1][9] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted as follows: - 2023: 20,315 million - 2024: 23,760 million - 2025: 21,391 million - 2026: 18,840 million - 2027: 21,682 million - Year-on-year growth rates for net profit are projected at 168.75% in 2023, 16.96% in 2024, -9.97% in 2025, -11.93% in 2026, and 15.08% in 2027 [1][9] - Non-GAAP net profit estimates are as follows: - 2023: 28,747 million - 2024: 27,002 million - 2025: 19,430 million - 2026: 21,714 million - 2027: 24,742 million - Year-on-year growth rates for Non-GAAP net profit are expected to be 39.01% in 2023, -6.07% in 2024, -28.04% in 2025, 11.76% in 2026, and 13.95% in 2027 [1][9] Market Data - The closing price of Baidu's stock is 111.80 HKD, with a market capitalization of approximately 226,525.83 million HKD [5][6] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 13.92 for the current year and 11.91 for the next year [1][9]

百度创始人李彦宏 在《人民日报》发表署名文章 11月20日，百度创始人李彦宏在《人民日报》发表题为《内化AI能力，加快形成新质生产力》的署名文章。他指出，推动人工智能更好赋能高质量发 展，一个重要方面是让千行百业内化AI能力，构建AI原生能力，使之成为企业发展的原生推动力。 以产业融合激发动能，做强人工智能增长引擎。我国是世界上唯一拥有全部工业门类的国家，推进人工智能与实体经济深度融合，空间广阔、潜力巨大。 在实体经济企业中内化AI能力，利用人工智能技术赋能矿业、化工、轻工、船舶等重点产业，有助于进一步夯实实体经济这个根基。 李彦宏《人民日报》 （2025年11月20日 第 05 版） "十五五"时期经济社会发展的主题是推动高质量发展。推动高质量发展，最重要是加快高水平科技自立自强，积极发展新质生产力。人工智能（AI）作为 引领新一轮科技革命和产业变革的重要力量，对于加快形成新质生产力、实现经济社会高质量发展作用十分关键。 过去几年，我国在人工智能算力基础设施和大模型等关键领域取得显著突破，形成了领先优势。我国算力规模跃居全球第二，涌现出DeepSeek推理大模 型、文心原生全模态大模型等广受好评的基础大模型 ...