苹果好货不足，红枣供需乏力 苹果观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘苹果2601合约8288元/吨，较前一日变动-3元/吨，幅度-0.04%。现货方面，山东栖霞80# 一二 级晚富士价格3.80元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP01-688，较前一日变动+3；陕西洛川70# 以上半商 品晚富士价格4.80元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP01+1312，较前一日变动+3。 农产品日报 | 2025-09-24 市场要闻与重要数据 近期市场资讯，西部晚富士零星脱袋，目前因降雨推迟尚未大面积脱袋，早熟富士基本结束，其他中熟品种正常 交易，多按货给价。山东产区部分红将军陆续进入后期，小单车客商青睐价格较低的红将军货源，库存老富士受 到其它苹果品种冲击，交易不快。陕西延安洛川产区早熟富士70#以上市场主流价格3.8-4.1元/斤，一般货3.5-3.7元 /斤。中秋王70#以上主流4.2-4.3元/斤，秦脆70#以上主流4.8-5.2元/斤。山东栖霞产区果农80#以上统货2.1-3.0元/斤， 80#一二级条纹3.3-4.5元/斤，80#一二级片红3.0-4.0元/斤。山东栖霞产 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Apple Weekly: Dual - Festival Stockpiling Progresses, Apple Prices Stable [1] - Researcher: Liu Qiannan [1] Group 2: Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 3: Core Viewpoints - Due to the poor quality of early - maturing apples, the price difference between high - quality and low - quality apples is large. The expected poor quality rate of late - maturing Fuji may lead to a relatively high initial purchase price, but the current futures price is not low, so the futures are expected to fluctuate in the short term. The initial purchase price of new - season Fuji will have a significant impact on the futures market [16]. Group 4: Summary by Directory 4.1 Logic Analysis and Trading Strategies 4.1.1 Spot Analysis - During the week, the stockpiling for the Mid - Autumn and National Day festivals continued. The bag - removing work of late - maturing Fuji was sporadic, and rainfall in the west may delay the large - scale bag - removing. In Shandong, the trading price of Red General apples varied widely due to quality differences, with low - quality apples having a price advantage. In the west, the trading of early - maturing Fuji was ending, and some merchants started to order pre - harvested Fuji at a higher price than last year. The inventory of apples in Shandong decreased significantly, and the enthusiasm of merchants to purchase was low [7]. - In Shandong Qixia, the price of farmers' 80 and above general apples was 2.1 - 3.0 yuan/jin, 80 first - and second - grade striped apples were 3.3 - 4.5 yuan/jin, and 80 first - and second - grade patchy red apples were 3.0 - 4.0 yuan/jin. For early - maturing varieties, the price of 80 and above low - quality Red General apples was 1.6 - 1.8 yuan/jin, and good - quality ones were 2.5 - 2.8 yuan/jin. The mainstream price of large - diameter mid - and late - maturing varieties such as Qin脆 and Mid - Autumn King was 4.8 - 5.2 yuan/jin. In Shaanxi Yan'an Luochuan, the price of 70 and above high - quality early - maturing Fuji was around 3.8 yuan/jin, and the general price was 3.5 - 3.7 yuan/jin. The mainstream price of Mid - Autumn King was 4.2 - 4.3 yuan/jin, Qin脆 was 4.8 - 5.2 yuan/jin, and Yanfu 10 was 4.8 - 5.0 yuan/jin [7]. 4.1.2 Supply Analysis - As of September 11, 2025, the national cold - storage inventory ratio was about 1.94%, a decrease of 0.38 percentage points in this period and 0.98 percentage points lower than the same period last year, with a de - stocking rate of 96.96%. In Shandong, the cold - storage capacity ratio was 3.70%, a decrease of 0.58 percentage points, and the cold - storage shipment volume was slightly higher than last week. In Shaanxi, the cold - storage capacity ratio was 1.54%, a decrease of 0.32 percentage points, and the cold - storage was gradually being cleared [12]. - As of September 17, 2025, the apple cold - storage inventory in the main producing areas was 16.32 tons, a decrease of 4.59 tons from last week. The inventory shipment in Shandong slowed down due to the impact of mid - maturing varieties [12]. 4.1.3 Demand Analysis - In the Guangdong Chalong market, the number of early - morning arrival vehicles increased slightly compared to last week, with an average of 31.8 vehicles per day. The mainstream price of Shandong 80 late - maturing Fuji in baskets was 3.8 - 4 yuan/jin, and in boxes was 4.5 - 5.5 yuan/jin. The price of Luochuan Gala in baskets was 5.3 - 5.5 yuan/jin, and high - quality ones were 6 - 7 yuan/jin. The price of Hongqian Fuji was 4 - 4.5 yuan/jin, and the price of Jingning Red Star in boxes was 5 yuan/jin. With the approaching of the dual festivals, the market was stockpiling, but the overall sales were average, and there was a backlog in the transfer warehouse [15]. - On September 11, the average wholesale price of 6 key - monitored fruits was 6.84 yuan/kg, slightly lower than last Friday, and it was at the middle level in recent years [15]. - From 2024 - 2025, the profit of Qixia 80 first - and second - grade apple storage merchants was 0.3 yuan/jin, the same as last week. The market arrival volume increased this week, the overall sales were good, and the price remained stable [15]. 4.1.4 Trading Strategies - Trading Logic: Due to the poor quality rate of early - maturing apples and the expected poor quality rate of late - maturing Fuji, the initial purchase price of late - maturing Fuji is expected to be relatively high. However, considering the current high futures price, the futures are expected to fluctuate in the short term. The initial purchase price of new - season apples will have a significant impact on the market [16]. - Single - side: In the short term, apples are expected to fluctuate due to the expected poor quality rate. The previous high is expected to be the recent high, and there will be significant selling and hedging pressure after the new - season apples are on the market [16]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [16]. - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [16]. 4.2 Weekly Data Tracking 4.2.1 Apple Supply and Demand - The report presents data on apple exports, planting area, consumption, and production from 2018 - 2023, but specific numerical analysis is not provided in the text [20]. 4.2.2 Inventory and Shipment - The report shows the inventory trends of national, Shandong, and Shaanxi apple cold - storages from 2016/17 - 2024/25, as well as the national cold - storage apple shipment trends during the same period [23][24]. 4.2.3 Spreads and Basis - The report provides data on the current and previous closing prices, price changes of AP01, AP05, AP10, and their spreads, as well as the basis data of Qixia first - and second - grade 80 apples and different - month contracts from 2019 - 2025 [26]. 4.2.4 Spot and Futures Prices - The report shows the current price, previous - day price, and price changes of the Fuji apple price index, Qixia first - and second - grade 80 apples, Penglai first - and second - grade 80 apples, and other spot prices, as well as the average wholesale price of 6 kinds of fruits [27].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both the apple and红枣 industries is neutral [3][8] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Apple: The late Fuji bag - removing is generally postponed, and the high - quality fruit supply may be scarce. The inventory apple sales have slowed down. The short - term price is expected to remain stable due to low inventory levels [2][3] - Red dates: The market is debating the new - season reduction and inventory. The double - festival stocking is less than expected. The new - season production is expected to decrease, but there is still high inventory pressure. The price trend depends on the final production and stocking demand [7][8] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Apple Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the apple 2601 contract was 8281 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton (+0.11%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: The price of 80 first - and second - grade late Fuji in Shandong Qixia was 3.80 yuan/jin, unchanged; the price of 70 semi - commercial late Fuji in Shaanxi Luochuan was 4.80 yuan/jin, unchanged [1] Market Analysis - The apple futures price rose slightly. The late Fuji bag - removing is postponed, and the high - quality fruit supply may be short. The inventory apple sales have slowed down. The short - term price is expected to be stable with low inventory support [2] Strategy - Maintain a neutral stance. With low inventory, the price has bottom support. The high price of new - season high - quality apples affects the inventory apple sales, and the short - term price is expected to be stable [3] Red Dates Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the red dates 2601 contract was 10620 yuan/ton, down 195 yuan/ton (-1.80%) from the previous day [4] - Spot: The price of first - grade grey jujubes in Hebei was 9.50 yuan/kg, unchanged [4] Market Analysis - The red dates futures price fell. The market is arguing about the new - season reduction and inventory. The double - festival stocking is less than expected. The new - season production is expected to decrease, but the high inventory pressure persists. The price trend depends on the final production and stocking demand [7] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. The futures price may rise due to capital sentiment when the production reduction cannot be falsified. However, if the reduction is less than expected, the price may turn weak under high - inventory pressure [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Apple: Neutral [3] - Red dates: Neutral [8] Core Views - Apple: The price of apple futures rose yesterday with active trading in the early-ripening Fuji market. As late-ripening Fuji is approaching harvest, attention should be paid to its quality. The sales of high-quality stored apples have slightly improved with stable and firm prices, and the demand for festival stocking in the sales areas is emerging. The overall de-stocking speed of stored apples is still average, and the short-term market is expected to run stably [1][2][3] - Red dates: The price of red date futures rose yesterday. There is a strong expectation of a reduction in the new-season jujube production, but the reduction amplitude may be small compared to previous years. The demand for festival stocking is gradually being released, but the overall trading volume is average. The inventory of red dates is much higher than that of the same period last year. The prices of red date futures and spot goods are in a high-level oscillation state after the increase. Attention should be paid to the impact of rainfall in the main production areas on the quality of new-season jujube fruits and the demand for Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day stocking [4][7][8] Market News and Important Data Apple - Futures: The closing price of the apple 2601 contract yesterday was 8,252 yuan/ton, up 122 yuan/ton or 1.50% from the previous day [1] - Spot: The price of 80 first and second-grade late Fuji in Shandong Qixia was 3.80 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day; the price of over 70 semi-commodity late Fuji in Shaanxi Luochuan was 4.80 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day [1] Red dates - Futures: The closing price of the red date 2601 contract yesterday was 11,225 yuan/ton, up 190 yuan/ton or 1.72% from the previous day [4] - Spot: The price of first-grade grey dates in Hebei was 9.50 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day [4] Market Analysis Apple - Yesterday, the apple futures price closed higher. The early-ripening Fuji market had active transactions. As late-ripening Fuji is approaching harvest, attention should be paid to its quality. The sales of high-quality stored apples have slightly improved with stable and firm prices, and the demand for festival stocking in the sales areas is emerging. Last week, there were prominent quality problems with early-ripening Gala in the western region, such as poor coloring and small fruit size. The prices of high-quality goods were significantly higher than those of the same period last year, and the profit of some merchants purchasing high-quality Gala was low. The cold storage inventory in the Shandong production area was mainly for the rigid demand replenishment of merchants, and the price of the stored goods continued to decline. The early-ripening varieties in the Shandong production area, such as Luli, Jindu Red, Huashuo, and Meiba, were gradually listed for trading, with a small overall volume, and the prices followed the expected pattern of high opening and low closing. The remaining inventory of apples in the Shaanxi production area was limited and gradually entered the later stage. Affected by the quality of early-ripening apples, merchants turned to the stored goods in the warehouse, and the price of high-quality stored goods increased. In the sales area market, the wholesale price was stable with obvious polarization. After the early-ripening apples were listed, the number of trucks arriving at the market increased slightly compared with the previous off-season, still mainly Fuji apples, with an increase in early-ripening Gala. The sales of early-ripening apples were okay, but the profit of merchants was average, the terminal sales speed was not fast, the digestion speed of high-quality goods was okay, and the digestion of poor-quality goods was slow [1][2] Red dates - The price of red date futures rose yesterday. There is a strong expectation of a reduction in the new-season jujube production, but the reduction amplitude may be small compared to previous years. The demand for festival stocking is gradually being released, but the overall trading volume is average. The inventory of red dates is much higher than that of the same period last year. In the 2024 production season, the production of red dates was large with high inventory but poor quality. The de-stocking slope of the inventory of 36 sample points was gentler compared to recent years. There is an over - exhaustion problem with the new-season jujube trees, and the estimated new-season production is 56 - 62 tons, with a strong expectation of a reduction. After entering the sugar - increasing period, the growth situation has not shown unexpected changes. The spot price in the sales area market is firm, but the trading volume has decreased, and the demand shows signs of weakness with light trading. Therefore, the prices of red date futures and spot goods are in a high - level oscillation state after the increase. Attention should be paid to the impact of rainfall in the main production areas on the quality of new - season jujube fruits. If the subsequent dynamic production assessment is lower than the current expectation, the upward trend of red dates may continue. At the same time, attention should be paid to the demand for Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day stocking [4][7] Strategies - Apple: Maintain a neutral stance. Although the sales of stored apples have improved, the overall de - stocking speed is still average. The short - term market is expected to run stably [3] - Red dates: Maintain a neutral stance. Without disproving the reduction in production, the futures market may still rise in the short term due to capital sentiment. However, due to the continuously high inventory of old dates, attention should be paid to the final production of new dates. If the reduction amplitude is less than expected, the red date price may return to a weak state under the pressure of high inventory [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The price of apples is expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term due to low high - quality fruit rate of early - maturing apples and potential impact of rainfall on the high - quality fruit rate of late - maturing Fuji [16]. - The new - season Fuji apples may have a high price at the initial listing stage as the new - season apple output is expected to change little from this season, and the early - maturing apples have a low high - quality fruit rate [16]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Spot Analysis - The ground trading of early - maturing Gala apples has basically ended this week, with a small amount of cold - storage goods still being shipped out. Early - maturing Fuji apples are waiting to color. Due to continuous rainfall in Shaanxi, the quantity of red apples is difficult to increase, and the trading is sporadic. The impact of early - maturing fruits on Shandong's inventory goods has weakened, and the sales have improved slightly. The prices in Shandong are mainly stable, with the prices of good goods in some townships slightly increasing. The Cream Red General apples in Shandong are on the market. The sales in the distribution markets are a bit slow, and the market prefers high - redness high - quality goods [6]. - The main producing areas' prices: In Shandong Qixia, the prices of 80 first - and second - grade slice - red apples are 3.30 - 4.20 yuan/jin, 80 first - and second - grade striped apples are 3.50 - 4.50 yuan/jin, general goods are 2.80 - 3.30 yuan/jin, and third - grade apples are 2.00 - 2.50 yuan/jin. For early - maturing varieties, the trading of Gala is basically over, and the Cream Red General is the main trading variety. In Shaanxi Yan'an Luochuan, the mainstream price of early - maturing Fuji above 70 is 4.0 - 4.5 yuan/jin, and good goods are 4.7 - 4.8 yuan/jin. In Shaanxi Baishui, the mainstream reference price of general goods starting from 70 is 3.5 - 3.8 yuan/jin, and good goods are 4.1 - 4.3 yuan/jin [6]. 3.2 Supply Analysis - As of September 4, 2025, the national cold - storage inventory ratio is about 2.32%, down 0.36 percentage points this period, and 1.666 percentage points lower than the same period last year, with a destocking rate of 96.36%. In Shandong, the cold - storage capacity ratio is 4.28%, down 0.51 percentage points, and the cold - storage shipment volume is slightly higher than last week. In Shaanxi, the cold - storage capacity ratio is 1.85%, down 0.31 percentage points, and the cold - storage is gradually clearing inventory [11]. - As of September 3, 2025, the apple cold - storage inventory in the national main producing areas is 27.35 tons, a decrease of 6.62 tons from last week, and the inventory shipment speed has accelerated slightly [11]. 3.3 Demand Analysis - In the Guangdong Chalong market, the number of morning arrival vehicles has increased slightly compared with last week. The market still mainly deals with Fuji apples, and the early - maturing varieties account for a small proportion. The early - maturing apples are selling well, but the profit of merchants is average, and the terminal sales speed is not fast [14]. - On September 4, the average wholesale price of 6 key - monitored fruits is 6.89 yuan/kg, slightly lower than last Friday, and it is at the median level in recent years [14]. - In the 2024 - 2025 production season, the profit of Qixia 80 first - and second - grade storage merchants is 0.4 yuan/jin, the same as last week [14]. 3.4 Trading Strategy - Unilateral: It is recommended to build long positions at low prices and conduct rolling operations of buying low and selling high due to the possible low high - quality fruit rate of new - season apples [16]. - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see [16]. - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [15].