分析师：闫智 证券执业证书号：S0640524070001 分析师：卢正羽 证券执业证书号：S0640521060001 中航证券研究所发布 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文后的免责条款部分 行业报告:先进制造行业周报 2025年8月24日 中航证券有限公司 AVIC SECURITIES CO., LTD. 智元预计明年出货量数万台，天太机器人to C应用取得重大突破 行业评级:增持 分析师：邹润芳 证券执业证书号：S0640521040001 ■ 人形机器人,产业趋势明确、至2030年全球累计需求量有望达约200万台,目前进入从0到1的重要突破阶段,看好T1er1及核心零部件供应商; ■ 光伏设备, N型渗透率加速提升, 马太效应下头部企业竞争力进一步强化, 看好平台型布局电池片、组件的龙头公司; ■ 储能、储能是构建新型电网的必备基础,政策利好落地,发电、用户侧推动行业景气度提升,看好电池、逆变器、集成等环节龙头公司; ■ 半导体设备，预计2030年行业需求达1400亿美元，中国大陆占比提高但国产化率仍低，看好平台型公司和国产替代有望快速突破的环节; ■ 自动化, 下游应用领域广泛的工业耗材,市场规模在40 ...

Group 1 - Antig's plan to build three natural gas power plants has been approved to supply power to Meta's largest data center in Louisiana, which covers 4 million square feet and is expected to consume up to 5 gigawatts of electricity annually when fully operational [2] - Global display equipment spending is projected to reach $75.8 billion from 2020 to 2027, driven primarily by OLED technology, with OLED-related equipment spending expected to grow by 31% year-on-year in 2025, while LCD spending is anticipated to decline by 45% [2] - Nikon announced the closure of its Yokohama factory by September 30, with production lines moving to other facilities in Kanagawa and Tokyo, primarily affecting microscope products and flat panel display manufacturing equipment [2] Group 2 - SpaceX's Starlink service has gained traction in the in-flight Wi-Fi market, signing contracts with major airlines such as Air France and Qatar Airways, with ongoing negotiations with Emirates and other regional airlines [3] - The Zhiyuan Lingxi X2 robot is set to complete mass production by the end of August, with unlimited shipments starting in the fourth quarter [3]

Core Viewpoint - Zhiyuan Robotics has completed a new round of strategic financing with investment support from Charoen Pokphand Group, aiming to explore business opportunities in various verticals such as life sciences, new retail, and health services [1][2]. Group 1: Investment and Financing - Zhiyuan Robotics has attracted significant investment, including support from Tencent, JD.com, and Shanghai Embodied Intelligence Fund in the first half of this year [1]. - The company has made direct investments in 27 projects and indirect investments in 57 projects, with a current valuation of approximately 20 billion yuan [2]. - Recently, Zhiyuan Robotics announced the acquisition of controlling interest in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board listed company, Shouwei New Materials [2]. Group 2: Company Background and Team - Established in 2023, Zhiyuan Robotics focuses on the integration of AI and robotics, aiming to create world-class general-purpose embodied robot products and applications [2]. - The founding team consists of experienced executives from renowned global companies and top scientists in the AI field, providing a strong technical and management background [3]. - The chairman, Deng Taihua, previously served as vice president at Huawei, while co-founder Peng Zhihui is a well-known figure with significant online influence [3]. Group 3: Product Development and Technology - Zhiyuan Robotics has developed a full-stack technology system for robotics, covering various commercial scenarios with product families including Expedition, Elf, and Lingxi [3]. - The company launched its first product, Expedition A1, marking a significant transition from laboratory research to practical application, followed by the Expedition A2 and the upcoming Lingxi X2 [3]. - The company has introduced a one-stop development platform, Genie Studio, and released the world's first embodied world model driven by robot action sequences, promoting global research in embodied intelligence [5]. Group 4: Market Expansion and Production - Zhiyuan Robotics has achieved mass production of its general-purpose embodied robots, laying the groundwork for a target of thousands of units shipped in 2025 [5]. - The company recently won a bid for a humanoid biped robot contract with a budget of 78 million yuan (including tax) from China Mobile (Hangzhou) Information Technology Co., Ltd. [5].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" indicating a projected increase of over 10% relative to the market index in the next six months [5][8]. Core Insights - The recent procurement order of 124 million yuan for humanoid robots marks the largest single order publicly disclosed by domestic humanoid robot companies, with the aim to enhance robot business and research key technologies for human-robot interaction based on large models and general algorithms [2][3]. - The order includes 78 million yuan for a "full-size humanoid biped robot" from Zhiyuan Robotics and 46.05 million yuan for a "small-size humanoid biped robot, computing backpack, and dexterous hand" from Yushu Technology, totaling 124.05 million yuan (including tax) [2]. - The collaboration between Zhiyuan and Yushu is expected to improve motion fluidity and human-robot dialogue experience, potentially opening new avenues for domestic robots [2][3]. - The year 2025 is anticipated to be a milestone for mass production of humanoid robots, with increasing procurement demands from educational institutions and automotive companies [2][3]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The procurement by China Mobile's subsidiary reflects the strategic layout of telecommunications giants in the robot sector, with ongoing robot purchases in various regions aimed at building an ecosystem combining 5G networks and edge computing [3]. - Current commercialization of humanoid robots primarily focuses on entertainment, exhibition guidance, and educational research, with a notable demand in the rental market for Yushu robots [3]. Investment Recommendations - The order signifies a critical turning point for humanoid robots transitioning from laboratory settings to large-scale commercial applications, marking the dawn of industrialization in this sector [4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of reducing costs for widespread adoption of humanoid robots, suggesting a focus on companies that master core component technologies and achieve low-cost mass production [4].

Core Viewpoint - Shanghai is positioning itself as a global technology innovation center, leveraging systematic policy support and innovative practices to drive high-quality urban development through technology innovation [1][9]. Policy Empowerment - Shanghai views technology innovation as a key competitive advantage, implementing a comprehensive support system through a "policy toolbox" that translates policy benefits into fuel for enterprise innovation [1]. - In May, Shanghai introduced a document with 16 measures and 39 tasks aimed at deepening reform and accelerating the high-quality development of the technology service industry, focusing on systemic, integrated, and collaborative reform [1]. Industry Development - Various districts in Shanghai are actively promoting technology innovation, with Songjiang District focusing on advanced manufacturing and developing comprehensive policies to enhance industrial capabilities [2]. - Hongkou District is strategically positioning itself in emerging industries like semiconductor IP, fostering development through government-enterprise cooperation [2]. - Jinshan District is building a biomanufacturing innovation hub, with a complete chain from R&D to manufacturing in the biopharmaceutical sector, currently hosting 115 biopharmaceutical companies [3]. Corporate Leadership - Shanghai enterprises are tackling critical challenges and reshaping the competitive landscape, exemplified by Shanghai Zhiyuan's development of a highly capable robot, the Zhiyuan Lingxi X2, which integrates advanced technologies [4][5]. - The AI sector in Shanghai is evolving rapidly, with a cluster of leading AI companies in Xuhui District forming a collaborative network to drive innovation [6]. Ecosystem Co-prosperity - A multi-faceted innovation network involving government, enterprises, research institutions, and financial entities is essential for achieving ecological co-prosperity in technology innovation [7]. - The "Dazero Bay" initiative in Minhang District aims to foster deep integration between academic research and enterprise innovation, enhancing the commercialization of scientific achievements [8][9]. Global Collaboration - Shanghai is embracing global technology innovation networks, enhancing international competitiveness through cross-border technology cooperation, as evidenced by the recent inclusion of multinational companies in the Pudong New Area's Open Innovation Center [9].

用四足求生，为人形蓄力。 "人"红是非多，机器人也不例外。 今年三月底，朱啸虎的"人形机器人泡沫论"，给红得发紫的人形机器人赛道浇了一盆冰水。 紧接着人形机器人首场马拉松的落幕，让看衰、看好人形机器人的争论愈发不可收拾。 近期，自家产品很少"露面"的"银河通用"创始人王鹤公开评论称，人形机器人跳舞是预先编程，马拉松是遥控操作。王鹤进一步揭露这类动作的 本质，"他们的炫技甚至都没有用到视觉传感器，此类人形机器人离真正的劳动力时代还有些距离。" 这一观点和此前"机器狗之父"、波士顿动力创始人Marc Raibert论断接近。Marc Raibert曾表示：工业机器人已经非常成熟，而且能够商业化，目前 人形机器人"在某种程度上是一种炫耀，而不是一种生产力"。 5月22日，在GoogleI/0 2025开发者大会上，谷歌联合创始人谢尔盖·布林(Sergey Brin)直言，自己可能是个异类，不太热衷人形机器人，对这个方 向可能没那么乐观。据悉，谷歌在过去十年中收购了多家机器人公司，包括波士顿动力，但最终都选择了出售或裁撤这些业务。简而言之，谷歌 创始人布林并不看好人形机器人。 在人形机器人深陷"实验室玩具"、"影视特 ...

Market Review - The Huaxia Sci-Tech AI ETF (589010) fell by 1.94% as of the close on May 23, with mixed performance among its holdings. Tianhuai Technology led the gains with an increase of 2.33%, while Hengxuan Technology dropped by 8.96%, marking the largest decline among the holdings. The total trading volume for the day was 697 million yuan, with a turnover rate of 5.26%, indicating active market participation [1]. Hot News - The CMG World Robot Competition series, featuring humanoid robots, will hold its mech combat arena on May 25, showcasing the first global competition of its kind. Four Yushu G1 humanoid robots demonstrated various combat moves before the official start [1]. - According to the National Enterprise Credit Information Publicity System, JD.com and Shanghai-based Intelligent Fund participated in a new financing round for Zhiyuan Robotics, with JD Technology becoming a new shareholder contributing 61,890.9 yuan. No response has been received from JD regarding this financing information [1]. Institutional Viewpoints - According to招商证券, the recruitment of partners for Zhiyuan Lingxi X2 and the financing of several startups in various segments indicate active efforts in commercializing humanoid robots. While humanoid robots have entered mass production in industrial sectors, full commercialization will require advancements in intelligence and cost reduction [2]. Popular ETFs - The Robot ETF (562500) is the largest robot-themed ETF in the market, providing investors with a streamlined way to invest in China's robotics industry [2].

Core Viewpoint - The launch of the Lingxi X2 robot by Zhiyuan Robotics marks a significant step towards commercializing humanoid robots, emphasizing the importance of real-world applications and creating a commercial ecosystem for sustainable growth in the industry [7][12][14]. Group 1: Product Features - The Lingxi X2 robot comes in three versions: X2 (Interactive), X2 Pro (Exploration), and X2 Ultra (Flagship), featuring 25-31 degrees of freedom, enabling basic motion control and interaction capabilities such as humanoid gait, voice dialogue, touch feedback, and emotional expression [4]. - The X2 Ultra version offers advanced options like adaptive grippers, remote operation, and motion capture, catering to diverse user needs for secondary development [4][10]. - The robot supports single or combined capabilities for research and development, excelling in applications such as entertainment performances, exhibition explanations, educational research, and companionship [4][10]. Group 2: Partner Recruitment - Zhiyuan Robotics is actively recruiting partners for sales and solution development, encouraging collaboration to create tailored applications based on the Lingxi X2's capabilities [5][8]. - The company aims to work closely with partners to refine specific scenarios, ensuring that the robots meet the unique demands of various industries [10][11]. Group 3: Market Demand and Applications - The primary target industries for the Lingxi X2 include entertainment performances, exhibition services for operators and banks, and educational research, with a strong demand observed in entertainment and exhibition sectors [10]. - Future plans include expanding into service-oriented sectors such as elderly care and rehabilitation, indicating a strategic approach to market diversification [11]. Group 4: Commercialization Strategy - The company emphasizes the necessity of commercializing humanoid robots in real-world scenarios to ensure long-term industry health, moving beyond laboratory products to create value for users [12][14]. - A commercial ecosystem is essential, where products must be deployed in practical applications, providing value that users are willing to pay for [14]. Group 5: Pricing Strategy - The pricing for the Lingxi X2 ranges from hundreds of thousands to several million, depending on user-selected configurations and features, allowing customization for different scenarios [16]. - The company does not intend to engage in price wars, focusing instead on delivering value and functionality to users, with cost optimization considered only after establishing product utility [16].

Core Insights - The rapid development of the robotics industry is exemplified by the emergence of Shenzhen Robotics Valley and Zhangjiang Robotics Valley in Shanghai, which are enhancing innovation capabilities and establishing collaborative ecosystems [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Development - Shenzhen Robotics Valley is forming a collaborative ecosystem by integrating top universities and leading companies, fostering a deep integration of industry, academia, and research [2][3]. - As of December 31, 2024, the number of robotics companies in Shenzhen is projected to reach 74,032, with an increase of 14,534 companies year-on-year, representing a growth of 39.64% [3]. - The total output value of the robotics industry in Shenzhen is expected to exceed 200 billion yuan, reaching 201.2 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 12.58% [3]. Group 2: Innovation and Technology - The establishment of the Guangdong Embodied Intelligent Robot Innovation Center aims to create a self-sustaining ecosystem for embodied intelligent robots, promoting continuous innovation in artificial intelligence and robotics [4]. - The introduction of the "Moli Camp," an AI ecosystem community, focuses on providing support for AI companies, enhancing innovation and collaboration within the robotics sector [5]. - The Zhangjiang Robotics Valley in Shanghai is focusing on high-end medical robots, industrial robots, and intelligent service robots, with expectations of shipping over 10,000 humanoid robots by 2025 [6][7]. Group 3: Policy and Support - Shanghai's government has released action plans to promote high-quality innovation in the robotics industry, aiming to establish the city as a global innovation hub by 2025 [9]. - The establishment of national and local innovation centers is intended to unify industry standards and facilitate the transition of robotic technologies from laboratories to commercial applications [8][9].

Investment Rating - The mechanical industry is rated as "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The humanoid robot sector is experiencing significant advancements, with various companies unveiling new models and applications, indicating a growing market potential [2][3][6][7] - The engineering machinery industry is showing signs of recovery, with excavator sales increasing by 17.6% year-on-year in April 2025, suggesting a rebound in demand driven by infrastructure investments [13] - The agricultural machinery market is facing challenges, with a decline in the market sentiment index, indicating potential risks in this sub-sector [9][10] Summary by Relevant Sections Humanoid Robots - Lenovo's humanoid robot showcased at the Tech World 2025 conference demonstrates advanced capabilities such as Tai Chi performance and business Q&A [2] - Sichuan Mianyang deployed humanoid robots for traffic guidance, highlighting practical applications in urban settings [2] - ZTE is entering the companion robot market, indicating a diversification of applications in the humanoid robot sector [2] Engineering Machinery - In April 2025, excavator sales reached 22,142 units, with domestic sales at 12,547 units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 16.4% [13] - The industry is expected to benefit from increased infrastructure investments as major projects are set to commence [13] Agricultural Machinery - The agricultural machinery market sentiment index dropped to 47.9% in April 2025, a decrease of 13.8 percentage points from the previous month [9] - The production of various types of tractors showed mixed results, with large tractors increasing by 6.1% year-on-year, while smaller tractors faced declines [9][10] Market Trends - The humanoid robot industry is anticipated to see mass production breakthroughs in 2025, which will enhance data collection and training capabilities [7] - The engineering machinery sector is expected to recover gradually as macroeconomic policies take effect, improving equipment utilization rates [13] Key Data Tracking - Japan's machine tool orders in March 2025 reached 151.1 billion yen, a year-on-year increase of 11.4% [8] - China's metal cutting machine tool production in the first quarter of 2025 was 182,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 20.5% [8]