丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨点评报告丨软件与服务 [Table_Title] 朱雀三号即将再次回收试验，我国火箭重复使用 技术有望突破 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2 月 25 日，蓝箭航天宣布，其研制的朱雀三号重复使用运载火箭计划于今年第二季度再次开展 回收试验，并根据回收试验情况，争取于第四季度尝试首次回收复用飞行。此次蓝箭航天公布 其回收试验及首次回收复用飞行相关安排，我们认为我国商业航天有望于今年实现关键技术突 破。随着可回收火箭的技术突破，火箭发射成本有望大幅降低，从而加速我国商业航天产业发 展。建议关注产业链各环节的核心供应商，重点关注卫星应用相关标的。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 宗建树 陈耀文 SAC：S0490520030004 SAC：S0490525070002 SFC：BUX668 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 软件与服务 cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title 朱雀三号即将再次回收试验，我国火箭重复使 2] 用技术有望突破 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 2 月 2 ...

【商业航天动态】当地时间2月28日，美国已将【太空部队】、空军、海军、海军陆战队和陆军派往针对伊朗的行 动中。 后续催化展望： 海外： 1据彭博新闻报道，SpaceX公司的IPO申请最早于3月发布，IPO于6月进行，预计估值超过1.75万亿美元。 （信维通信等） 2starship V3计划于3月中旬首飞。 3 【商业航天动态】当地时间2月28日，美国已将【太空部队】、空军、海军、海军陆战队和陆军派往针对伊朗的行 动中。 1据彭博新闻报道，SpaceX公司的IPO申请最早于3月发布，IPO于6月进行，预计估值超过1.75万亿美元。 （信维通信等） 2starship V3计划于3月中旬首飞。 3RKLB中子号可重复使用火箭计划Q2首飞。 国内： 1两会于3月初召开。 2力箭二号可重复使用火箭计划3月下旬首飞。 (泰胜风能) 3朱雀三号遥二计划Q2再次尝试回收，争取Q4尝试复用飞行。 (飞沃科技、超捷股份、斯瑞新材) 后续催化展望： 海外： 3、4月起，我国新型号火箭再次密集首飞及回收，#2026年或成为我国火箭回收元年，两大星座的招标及发射预计 也将稳步推进，蓝箭航天、中科宇航有望于年内上市。 4天龙三号（广 ...

2月27日，商业航天概念表现活跃，广联航空、飞沃科技涨超13%，聚合材料、立中集团、海兰信、首都在线跟涨。 第三是春节动态：行业热度不减，高频发射序幕将启。海南商业航天发射场二期工程主体结构已完工，3号、4号发射工位预计年底前具备发射能 力，未来四工位年发射能力将达60发；深蓝航天明确春节后将执行"星云一号"运载火箭首次入轨飞行任务，同步验证火箭入轨与一子级高空垂直 回收；海外方面，北京时间2月20日，SpaceX完成2026年度第20次发射，使用27手猎鹰9号火箭将29颗星链卫星送入预定轨道。 第四是技术突破：可回收火箭密集发射，大运力时代来临。进入3月，国内商业航天将迎来发射高峰期，朱雀三、天龙三、长征十B、双曲线三 号、智神星一号、引力二号、长征十二B等多款可回收火箭将陆续择机发射。 华龙证券表示，商业航天加速发展，市场规模持续提升，维持行业"推荐"评级。建议关注以下标的：（1）火箭发射：超捷股份、斯瑞新材、铂力 特、中天火箭；（2）卫星制造：中国卫星、臻镭科技、航天电子；（3）卫星应用：中科星图、华测导航。 据券商中国，署名为东吴证券王紫敬的点评表示，商业航天板块重新爆发主要有四大利好： 第一是政策催 ...

Event Overview - The first flight of the reusable launch vehicle "Xingyun-1" by Deep Blue Aerospace is scheduled around the Spring Festival of 2026, aiming to validate the full process of orbital launch and vertical recovery, potentially becoming China's first commercial rocket to achieve both "orbital + recovery" success [1] - "Xingyun-1" utilizes the self-developed "Thunder R" engine, with over 85% of key components made from 3D-printed materials, ensuring full control over core technologies from design to testing [1] - Other reusable rockets expected to launch in 2026 include ZQ-3 by LandSpace, PALLAS-1 by Star River Power, and SQX-3 by Interstellar Glory [1] Market Potential - The market for rocket recovery and reuse is projected to be significant, as it aims to reduce launch costs and enhance rapid response times, which are crucial for large-scale, low-cost access to space [3] - The three main recovery methods include parachute recovery, vertical recovery, and winged return, with vertical recovery being the most economically viable due to its high landing precision and minimal structural changes to the rocket [3][4] Industry Growth - According to Shenwan Hongyuan, the commercial aerospace sector in China is entering a rapid development phase, with a focus on three core areas: accelerating breakthroughs in reusable rocket technology, increasing the number of commercial launch sites, and enhancing the launch capabilities of commercial rockets [5] - The number of low-orbit satellites applied for has reached 51,300, which is expected to significantly boost the frequency of rocket launches, with projections indicating over 900 launches by 2030 and a market space of approximately $63.2 billion [5] Related Companies - Key players in the industry include: - Southwest Aluminum, a leading aluminum processing enterprise for aerospace materials [10] - Baotai Co., a major producer of titanium and titanium alloys [11] - Guangwei Composite, a leader in carbon fiber production for aerospace applications [12] - Companies involved in rocket engine development include: - Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation, a primary entity for liquid rocket engines in China [14] - SRI New Materials, a supplier for various private rocket manufacturers [15]

Core Insights - China's commercial aerospace industry is transitioning from a technology accumulation phase to a new stage focused on large-scale launches and building a commercial ecosystem [1] - Beijing E-Town has emerged as one of the highest concentration areas for the aerospace industry, with significant investments and projects underway [1][7] Industry Development - The National Civil Space Infrastructure Medium- and Long-Term Development Plan (2015-2025) initiated the exploration of market-oriented and commercial development mechanisms for China's commercial aerospace sector [2] - By 2025, commercial launches are expected to account for half of all space launches in China, with 311 commercial satellites launched in a year, representing 84% of the total [2] - 2026 is identified as a critical year for technological validation and business model development, with several reusable rockets set for key milestones [2] Investment and Market Dynamics - The Shanghai Stock Exchange has provided clear pathways for commercial rocket companies to list on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, with reusable rockets being a key criterion [3] - Companies like Blue Arrow Aerospace and others are progressing towards IPOs, highlighting the importance of capital in driving technological advancements and commercialization [3] Regional Development Strategies - The growth of commercial aerospace is significantly influenced by regional conditions, with companies needing to consider various factors such as policy support and resource availability when selecting locations [4] - E-Town's development strategy reflects a response to these needs, having established a strong foundation with existing aerospace "national teams" and supporting industries [4][5] Ecosystem and Infrastructure - E-Town has attracted over 180 commercial aerospace-related companies, creating a comprehensive industrial ecosystem [7] - The newly completed Beijing Rocket Street project aims to foster a sustainable industrial ecosystem, potentially reducing R&D costs by over 30% for companies in the area [6][7]

Core Insights - China's commercial aerospace industry is transitioning from a technology accumulation phase to a new stage focused on large-scale launches and building a commercial ecosystem [1] - Beijing E-Town has emerged as one of the highest concentration areas for the aerospace industry, with over 15 billion yuan invested in nine major capacity projects [1] - The year 2026 is identified as a critical year for technological validation and business model development in China's commercial aerospace sector [1] Industry Development - The National Civil Space Infrastructure Medium- and Long-term Development Plan (2015-2025) initiated the exploration of market-oriented and commercial development mechanisms for civil space infrastructure [1] - By 2025, commercial launches are expected to account for half of all space launches in China, with 311 commercial satellites launched, representing 84% of the total [1] - The shift from customized satellite manufacturing to industrialized mass production is underway, with companies like Galaxy Aerospace reducing production cycles by 80% [2] Capital Market Dynamics - The Shanghai Stock Exchange has provided clear pathways for commercial rocket companies to list on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, with reusable rocket launches being a key requirement [2] - Several companies, including Blue Arrow Aerospace and Zhongke Aerospace, are progressing towards IPOs, highlighting the importance of capital in driving technological advancements and commercialization [2] Regional Development Strategies - The growth of commercial aerospace companies is significantly influenced by regional conditions, necessitating consideration of various factors such as industrial synergy, policy support, and resource availability [3] - A coordinated national planning approach is recommended to optimize resource allocation and avoid redundant construction in the aerospace sector [3] Ecosystem and Infrastructure - E-Town has developed a comprehensive industrial chain encompassing rocket and satellite manufacturing, aerospace electronics, and related fields [4] - The establishment of a sustainable industrial ecosystem is emphasized, with companies like Hongqing Technology planning to relocate their headquarters to E-Town to leverage its resources [4] - The Beijing Rocket Street project aims to create a collaborative research and production base, expected to reduce R&D costs by over 30% for companies in the area [5] Future Projections - In 2023, Beijing conducted 14 commercial rocket launches, with 13 originating from E-Town, and projections for 2024 include 13 launches and over 80 satellites in orbit [5] - By 2025, E-Town aims for 24 successful launches, carrying over 160 satellites, as part of its goal to create a thriving aerospace innovation cluster [5]

2026年开年第一个硬科技大爆点，当属"商业航天"。 火箭发射、卫星组网、概念股涨停，商业航天正以全产业链姿态密集刷屏。与此同时，蓝箭航天、中科宇航、天兵科技等近10家商业航天企业加速冲刺 IPO，一场围绕"商业航天第一股"的争夺战正式打响。 如果把时间线稍微拉长一点就会发现，这种爆发局面的形成并非偶然，而是中国商业航天"十年磨一剑"后，在2025 年完成全方位破局的必然延续。 2025年，政策窗口、技术突破、市场需求、资本环境等要素同时到位、形成合力，直接推动整个行业从 "技术验证"向"规模化与商业化发展"跨越。而 2026年，将是中国商业航天强弱分野、格局初定的关键验证之年。 01 爆发 如果说此前的中国商业航天还处于"单点突破、概念验证" 的探索期，那么2025年则是名副其实的破局之年。背后有三个最直接的推动力。 首先是政策层面的"官宣"。2025年11月，国家航天局专门成立"商业航天司"——这是全球首个国家级商业航天专职监管部门，意味着商业航天从此结束长 期以来"体制外运行"的模糊状态，被纳入到国家航天管理体系，有了"正式身份"。 仅1个月后，12月26日，上交所就发布了 "9号指引"，明确商业航天企 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese commercial rocket industry is poised for significant advancements in reusable rocket technology, with multiple launches and recovery attempts expected in 2026, marking a critical year for the sector [1][4]. Group 1: Company Developments - China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation (CASC) emphasizes the importance of 2026 as a foundational year for the commercial rocket sector, focusing on resource integration and successful launches and recoveries [1]. - The successful launch of the Zhuque-3 rocket by private company Landspace and the Long March 12 rocket by CASC highlights the collaborative efforts between state-owned and private enterprises in advancing reusable rocket technology [2][3]. - The Long March 12 rocket, measuring approximately 70.4 meters in length and weighing about 437 tons, aims for "first-stage reuse" as a core feature, although it did not achieve the recovery goal during its recent flight [2]. Group 2: Industry Trends - The collaboration between state-owned and private enterprises is fostering a strong synergy in the development of reusable rockets, combining the technical expertise of state firms with the agility of private companies [3]. - The anticipated launches of multiple domestic reusable rockets, including the Hyperbola-3 and Xingyun-1, are expected to occur in 2026, further pushing the boundaries of China's capabilities in this field [4]. - The breakthrough in reusable rocket technology is seen as a key factor in reducing launch costs, which could lead to new opportunities in satellite networking and space infrastructure [5]. Group 3: Future Opportunities - The successful recovery of reusable rockets is expected to open up new avenues in the commercial space sector, with companies actively preparing for developments such as space tourism [5][6]. - The Lihong-2 vehicle is set to conduct a 100-kilometer recovery technology verification in 2026, aiming to significantly lower launch costs and validate recovery technologies [6]. - Ongoing research and development in commercial space technology will require substantial investment and collaboration among government, local authorities, and private capital to achieve breakthroughs in core technologies [6].

Core Insights - The recent launch of 19 low-orbit satellites by China's commercial space sector marks a significant step in the country's ambition to become a "space power" as outlined in the 14th Five-Year Plan [2][8] - The rapid advancements in technology and the increasing capabilities of private space companies are driving the commercialization of space, transitioning from supplementary forces to strategic pillars [2][7] Group 1: Launch and Technology Developments - The Long March 12 rocket, used for the recent satellite launch, is China's first 4-meter single-core rocket with a near-Earth orbit capacity of at least 12 tons, supporting various launch missions [3] - Galaxy Space successfully launched its second group of self-developed low-orbit satellites, incorporating advanced technologies such as low-cost phased array antennas and automated production processes to enhance efficiency [2][3] Group 2: Reusable Rocket Technology - The development of reusable rocket technology is seen as a key factor in reducing launch costs and increasing launch frequency, with both state-owned and private enterprises collaborating on this front [5][7] - By the end of 2025, attempts at first-stage recovery tests for the Zhuque-3 and Long March 12A rockets are planned, indicating progress in this area [5] Group 3: Market and Policy Drivers - The rapid growth of China's commercial space sector is driven by favorable policies, capital investment, and technological breakthroughs, with a focus on satellite internet and 6G technology [6][7] - China has submitted applications for an additional 203,000 satellites, with major telecom operators like China Mobile and China Telecom entering the satellite constellation market [7][8] Group 4: Industry Ecosystem - The commercial space industry in China is developing a complete ecosystem from rocket and satellite manufacturing to launch services and communication operations, creating internal momentum for growth [8] - The successful integration of key technologies and the expansion of large-scale applications position China's commercial space sector to play an increasingly important role in the global space economy [8]

Core Viewpoint - The commercial rocket company Zhongke Aerospace has completed its IPO counseling work, indicating readiness for public listing and highlighting the importance of capital in the commercial space industry [1]. Group 1: Company Developments - Zhongke Aerospace's counseling status has changed from "counseling acceptance" to "counseling work completed" as of January 24 [1]. - The company signed a counseling agreement with Guotai Junan Securities in August 2025, completing two phases of counseling by December 2025 [1]. - Zhongke Aerospace, established in December 2018, focuses on the development of medium to large rockets and has successfully launched its "Lijian" series rockets, with the "Lijian No. 1" rocket completing 11 flights and delivering 84 satellites into orbit by the end of 2025 [1]. Group 2: Industry Trends - The commercial space industry is seeing increased IPO activity, with companies like Xinghe Power, Xingji Glory, and Tianbing Technology updating their IPO counseling progress [2]. - The Shanghai Stock Exchange has provided clear pathways for commercial rocket companies to meet the fifth set of listing standards, emphasizing the importance of successful orbital launches using reusable technology [2]. - 2026 is expected to be a pivotal year for multiple commercial rocket companies, with several new main models set for their first flights or critical tests [3][6]. Group 3: Technological Advancements - Blue Arrow Aerospace's "Zhuque No. 3" reusable rocket successfully completed its first flight by the end of 2025, achieving successful orbital insertion of its second stage [4]. - Xinghe Power's reusable rocket "Zhishen No. 1" plans to conduct recovery tests in 2026, while its "Zhishen No. 2" rocket's main engine has recently completed full system hot testing [4]. - Other companies like Dongfang Space and Tianbing Technology are also advancing their projects, with significant milestones expected in 2026 [5][6].