2026 年 1 月 9 日 行业研究 卫星星座组网加速，商业应用不断拓展 ——低轨卫星行业研究系列之四 要点 低轨卫星星座建设进入加速期，轨道与频谱资源争夺日趋激烈。低轨卫星凭借低 延迟、全球覆盖等优势，已成为商业航天发展的核心方向。当前各国正加快推进 低轨星座部署，以抢占有限的轨道和频谱资源。从轨道选择看，LEO 轨道因传 输损耗小、时延低，尤其适合实时通信与全球物联网连接；GEO 轨道容量趋于 饱和，MEO 则主要服务于导航等专项需求。频谱方面，行业正从传统的 C、Ku 频段向 Ka 等更高频段拓展，以支撑高通量数据传输。与此同时，卫星平台与载 荷技术持续升级，推动卫星向低成本、高性能、模块化方向发展，为大规模组网 奠定基础。 卫星平台与有效载荷技术持续突破，推动卫星性能提升与成本下降。卫星平台是 卫星稳定运行的基础，其结构、热控、姿轨控、电源等分系统日益集成化与智能 化。例如，结构分系统采用轻量化材料与模块化设计；热控技术结合被动与主动 手段，适应复杂空间环境；姿轨控系统逐步向星上自主处理演进。有效载荷作为 卫星功能的核心，正向多功能、软件定义方向演进。通信卫星已普遍采用相控阵 天线与处理式转发器，遥 ...

风险提示：提及个股仅用于行业事件分析，不构成任何个股推荐或投资建议。指数等短期涨跌仅供 参考，不代表其未来表现，亦不构成对基金业绩的承诺或保证。观点可能随市场环境变化而调整，不构 成投资建议或承诺。提及基金风险收益特征各不相同，敬请投资者仔细阅读基金法律文件，充分了解产 品要素、风险等级及收益分配原则，选择与自身风险承受能力匹配的产品，谨慎投资。 1月5日，科创板100ETF（588120）涨超1.2%，科技板块中长期逻辑获多重验证。 开源证券指出，科技占优的中长期条件未变：1、TMT板块相对全A的盈利增速开始占优，类似 2013年、2015年、2020~2021年科技风格显著占优的阶段；2、海外映射是本轮科技主线的重要驱动 力，全球科技巨头资本支出扩张带来产业链基本面支撑；3、全球半导体周期共振上行，当前正处于 2023年底启动的新一轮上行初期。商业航天领域，低轨卫星星座成为大国太空博弈新赛道，卫星全产业 链有望从"投入孵化期"步入"盈利兑现期"，上游卫星制造与发射环节在组网高峰率先受益。机器人产业 进入"量产前夜"，政策端加强标准供给推动技术落地。石油化工行业在"反内卷"政策推动下，供给格局 重塑，叠加资 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of the "space photovoltaic" theme in the photovoltaic equipment industry, highlighting its connection to US-China strategic competition and low-orbit resource contention, with fundamental catalysts expected to accelerate faster than emerging industries like nuclear fusion [1] - The European offshore wind demand is showing continuous improvement, with Poland's 3.4GW offshore wind tender being realized, and it is anticipated that the annual grid-connected scale of offshore wind in Europe will exceed 14GW by 2031-2032, leading to an acceleration in the release of future orders for piles, submarine cables, and wind turbines [1] - The price of lithium carbonate is surging, with spot prices breaking through 100,000 yuan/ton, and market inventory falling below 110,000 tons, indicating that prices are expected to remain strong in the short term [1] Group 2 - The photovoltaic 50 ETF (159864) tracks the photovoltaic industry index (931151), which selects listed companies involved in the entire solar photovoltaic power generation industry chain from the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets, including upstream raw material supply, midstream battery component manufacturing, and downstream power station construction and operation [1] - The index focuses on companies that are technologically advanced and competitive in the market, aiming to comprehensively reflect the overall development status and future trends of China's photovoltaic industry [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The commercial aerospace industry is increasingly recognized as a strategic emerging industry, with growing government emphasis on its development as a key measure for enhancing national strength and seizing future technological and economic development opportunities [4][24] - The global commercial aerospace market is entering a golden era of development, driven by low Earth orbit (LEO) satellite internet, characterized by technological integration and collaborative innovation across the entire industry chain [13][22] - The competition for low Earth orbit resources has intensified, with major countries vying for satellite positions and frequency bands under the "first come, first served" principle [5][30] Summary by Sections 1. Government Emphasis on Commercial Aerospace - Commercial aerospace has been included in China's top-level design framework, marking its elevation to a strategic emerging industry in government reports [24][28] - The establishment of the Commercial Aerospace Administration and the introduction of a three-year action plan for its development highlight the government's commitment to this sector [7][28] 2. Competition for Low Earth Orbit Resources - Low Earth orbit is identified as a core strategic resource for commercial aerospace, with satellites in this orbit offering low latency and reduced signal loss, making them ideal for internet services [30][31] - SpaceX's Starlink leads the global LEO satellite constellation development, having launched over 10,203 satellites, which is 45% of all satellites launched since 1957 [5][38] - China has applied to the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) for a total of 51,300 low Earth orbit satellites, with three major constellation plans exceeding 10,000 satellites each [36][47] 3. Formation of a Comprehensive Commercial Aerospace Ecosystem - The commercial aerospace market in China is growing annually, forming a complete ecosystem that covers upstream manufacturing, midstream launch and operation, and downstream application services [6][54] - The key to scaling in this industry is "cost reduction and efficiency enhancement," with reusable rocket technology significantly lowering launch costs and shortening mission cycles [6][55] - The expansion of satellite launch sites is leading to a new phase of high-density and normalized launches [6][54] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report highlights several companies as beneficiaries of the commercial aerospace sector, including West Materials, Superjet Co., and Aerospace Power in the rocket industry chain, and companies like Zhongke Xingtou and Aerospace Hongtu in the satellite industry chain [7]

Core Viewpoint - The successful launch of the Zhuque-3 rocket by Landspace marks a significant achievement in China's commercial space sector, despite the failure to recover the first stage of the rocket [4][5]. Group 1: Zhuque-3 Rocket Details - Zhuque-3 has a payload capacity of 21.3 tons for single-use missions and 18.3 tons for recovery missions to Low Earth Orbit (LEO) at 450 km [6]. - The rocket features a diameter of 5.2 meters and utilizes liquid oxygen and methane as propellants, with a total thrust of 9001 kN [6]. Group 2: Commercial Space Industry Context - China's commercial space industry is thriving, driven by the need to meet the high demand for satellite launches that the "national team" cannot fulfill alone [8][10]. - The concept of "near-Earth orbit space" and "low Earth orbit satellite constellations" is crucial, as these satellites provide faster communication and better coverage [9]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The limited capacity of near-Earth orbit space necessitates rapid deployment of satellites to avoid being outpaced by countries like the US [10]. - SpaceX's Starlink has set a precedent with over 10,000 satellites launched, highlighting the competitive pressure on China's satellite initiatives [9][11]. Group 4: Challenges and Opportunities - The high cost of satellite launches in China, estimated at 150,000 RMB per kilogram, poses a significant barrier, with Zhuque-3 aiming to reduce costs to 20,000 RMB per kilogram [26]. - The Chinese government is actively promoting the development of private space companies to enhance innovation and reduce costs in the industry [33]. Group 5: Future Prospects - The urgency for low Earth orbit satellite constellations is evident, with companies like Qianfan and GW aiming to launch thousands of satellites by 2030, but facing significant delays [17]. - The dual approach of "national team + enterprise team" is seen as beneficial for advancing both major projects and commercial satellite launches [32].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 83.85 RMB [6]. Core Insights - The company has shown significant year-on-year growth in revenue and net profit, with Q3 revenue reaching 97.51 million RMB (up 51.33% YoY) and net profit of 38.64 million RMB (up 337.49% YoY) [1]. - The company is well-positioned in the aerospace industry, particularly in low-orbit satellite constellations and digital phased array technologies, indicating strong competitive advantages and growth potential [1][3]. - The company has improved its cash flow significantly, with operating cash flow reaching 21.53 million RMB compared to a negative 6.15 million RMB in the same period last year [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 302 million RMB (up 65.76% YoY) and a net profit of 101 million RMB (up 598.09% YoY) [1]. - The gross margin for the first three quarters was 82.26%, while the gross margin for Q3 alone was 77.45%, a decrease of 4.73 percentage points YoY due to changes in product mix [1]. Cash Flow and Inventory - The company recorded a total impairment provision of 27.75 million RMB in the first three quarters, up from 17.69 million RMB in the same period last year [2]. - As of the end of Q3, inventory stood at 144 million RMB, a 67% increase from the beginning of the year, indicating sustained demand in the downstream market [2]. Industry Positioning - The company is deeply involved in China's aerospace development, benefiting from the country's focus on becoming a manufacturing and aerospace power [3]. - The company has established a strong competitive position in the satellite sector, with its power management chips and RF transceiver chips already in mature applications within the aerospace field [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report revises the company's net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 downwards by 6.95%, 6.34%, and 4.99% respectively, projecting net profits of 158 million RMB, 276 million RMB, and 409 million RMB [4]. - The estimated EPS for the same years is 0.74 RMB, 1.29 RMB, and 1.91 RMB [4].

Core Viewpoint - The successful launch of the sixth orbital mission of the Geely Constellation marks a significant milestone in China's low Earth orbit satellite network, achieving a total of 64 satellites in orbit and completing the first phase of network deployment [1][2]. Group 1: Launch and Technical Achievements - The Geely Constellation successfully launched 12 satellites using the Jielong-3 rocket, which has a payload capacity of 1500 kg for a 500 km sun-synchronous orbit [2]. - The constellation can provide real-time satellite communication coverage in the latitude range of 60°N to 60°S, with a communication capacity of 340 million times per day, supporting 20 million users globally [1][3]. - The satellites offer stable transmission capabilities, with a single communication capacity of 1900 Bytes and strong anti-interference and anti-eavesdropping capabilities [1]. Group 2: Future Plans and Applications - Following the completion of the first phase of the constellation, plans are in place to launch an additional 8 backup satellites, bringing the total to 72 satellites in orbit [1]. - The Geely Constellation aims to enhance communication capacity and reliability, with future plans for 3 to 4 layers of satellite communication coverage globally [1]. - The satellite communication technology will empower smart connected vehicles, providing connectivity in areas without public network coverage, and is already being integrated into Geely's vehicle models [3]. Group 3: Global Expansion and Collaboration - Geely has established partnerships with over 20 countries across the Middle East, Southeast Asia, Central Asia, Africa, and Latin America, completing commercial communication tests with a success rate of 99.15% and network availability exceeding 99.97% [3].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese commercial space industry is facing a significant bottleneck in rocket launch capacity, which is hindering the deployment of satellite constellations despite a growing demand for satellite services [2][4][10]. Group 1: Market Demand and Challenges - A major rocket launch order worth 616 million RMB from Shanghai Yuanxin Satellite Technology Co. has repeatedly failed to attract enough bidders, highlighting the shortage of capable private rocket companies [2][4]. - The total number of satellites planned by Yuanxin's "Qianfan Constellation" and China Star Network's "GW Constellation" has exceeded 30,000, indicating a substantial demand for launch services [3][4]. - The urgency of satellite launches is emphasized by the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) rules, which impose strict deadlines for satellite deployment to retain orbital and frequency resources [7][8]. Group 2: Current Launch Capacity - As of mid-2025, the Chinese commercial space sector has not produced a liquid rocket that can match the capabilities of SpaceX's Falcon 9, which poses a challenge for satellite companies needing reliable and cost-effective launch options [4][10]. - The recent bidding process by Yuanxin Satellite revealed that there are not enough qualified suppliers to meet the demand for large-capacity launch services, underscoring the industry's operational limitations [12][18]. Group 3: Potential Solutions and Developments - The market is looking towards several upcoming rockets, such as Tianbing Technology's "Tianlong-3," Blue Arrow Aerospace's "Zhuque-3," and CAS Space's "Lijian-2," which are expected to meet the large-scale constellation deployment needs but have yet to complete their first flights [5][23]. - The infrastructure for high-density launches is being developed, with new launch sites and production capabilities being established to support the anticipated increase in launch frequency [24][25]. - The capital market is becoming more accessible for companies in the commercial space sector, with firms like Blue Arrow Aerospace and CAS Space entering the IPO preparatory phase to secure funding for future growth [25].

Summary of Haige Communication Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Haige Communication - **Industry**: Military and Civil Communication, Satellite Navigation Key Points and Arguments Military Business Outlook - Haige Communication maintains a leading position in the military sector in 2025, despite procurement pressures in 2024. Initial signs of order recovery have been observed in early 2025. Full recovery of orders will take time, impacting revenue and profitability in the military segment [2][4][5] - The company has reclassified its business into three categories: communication, navigation, and innovation, with a focus on low-altitude, low-orbit unmanned systems and AI technology. The technological leadership in unmanned systems is a critical evaluation metric [4][10] Civil Business Expansion - Future civil business will focus on the BeiDou satellite navigation system and low-orbit satellite constellations, particularly in the smartphone and vehicle networking markets, which present larger market opportunities compared to previous military operations. Products include navigation and communication functionalities [3][10] Strategic Partnerships - Collaboration with China Mobile began at the end of 2023, enhancing ties and advancing satellite chip projects for smartphones and vehicle networking solutions. This partnership is expected to significantly drive growth between 2026 and 2027 [2][6] International Market Development - Haige Communication has been expanding its international market presence since 2012, with several billion yuan in overseas export orders. Recent international events, such as tensions between China and India, may catalyze overseas demand and accelerate business growth in low-altitude and satellite communication sectors [2][7] Impact of Satellite Internet - The development of satellite internet is expected to significantly benefit Haige's terminal-side business, with low-orbit satellite networking expected to accelerate in the second half of 2026. The company will also benefit from the completion of the BeiDou network, with a focus on commercial partnerships with smartphone manufacturers, operators, and automotive companies [2][8] Investment Considerations - Investors should monitor several factors: military order recovery, civil navigation and communication product development, strategic partnerships, international market catalysts, and progress in low-orbit satellite networking and BeiDou commercial cooperation. These factors could drive stock price increases [2][10] Business Reclassification - The company has re-evaluated its business segments, now categorized into wireless communication, BeiDou navigation, aerospace, and digital ecosystems, with a new classification into communication, navigation, and innovation categories [10][11] Achievements in Unmanned Systems - Haige Communication has achieved notable success in unmanned systems, ranking highly in industry competitions and gaining recognition from various institutions and listed companies for its systems [11][13]

Core Insights - The Chinese government is promoting the large-scale application of new technologies and products in emerging industries such as commercial aerospace and low-altitude economy, aiming for safe and healthy development [1] - The commercial aerospace industry in China is experiencing rapid growth, with advancements in satellite manufacturing and the establishment of a complete industrial chain [3][11] Industry Development - The demand for satellite communication services is increasing due to advancements in computer, data analysis, and artificial intelligence technologies, enabling the rapid and cost-effective production of satellites [3] - A commercial aerospace unicorn in Nantong has achieved a production cycle for satellites similar to that of automobiles, completing the entire process from team formation to market delivery in just over three years [1][3] Investment and Infrastructure - In Chizhou, Anhui, a 2 billion yuan industrial fund and simplified approval processes have attracted multiple commercial aerospace projects, leading to the development of a comprehensive "rocket + satellite + materials" industrial ecosystem [3][5] - The local government is actively promoting the development of low-orbit communication satellite payloads and has established a detailed industrial chain map to facilitate targeted investments [7][9] Technological Advancements - The "Zhishen-1" liquid launch vehicle, developed by a private company, is set for its maiden flight in August 2025, showcasing the rapid advancements in rocket technology [5] - The integration of artificial intelligence, big data, and cloud computing into the aerospace sector is transforming various industries, with applications ranging from navigation to real-time remote sensing [13] Future Outlook - The commercial aerospace industry in China is expected to reach a mature stage by the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan or during the 15th Five-Year Plan, indicating a significant opportunity for growth [11] - The industry is currently in a rapid and healthy growth phase, with companies overcoming initial challenges and focusing on high-quality development [11]