（来源：北京物联网智能技术应用协会） 近日，在"2026 ICT行业趋势年会"上，中国工程院院士邬贺铨发表了以《网络新赛道 创新再出发》为主题的主旨报告，对2026年ICT产业发展提出了七点 预测，并作权威解读。 趋势一、6G标准化在不确定性中开局 邬贺铨认为，2026年6G标准化将正式拉开帷幕，但与3G、5G相比，其技术路径与标准走向充满更多不确定性，全球运营商与设备供应商尚未形成共识。 6G将在现有技术基础上向更深层次突破，调制编码一体化、信源与信道联合编码、时空二维资源协同成为核心方向，超大规模MIMO、智能超表面、分 布式天线支撑的无蜂窝体制将逐步落地。 而语义寻址的新业态为服务走向"意图驱动、自动组装"。对于2C应用，自然语言请求代替URL/APP图标；Agent根据语义请求自动组装个性化服务。对于 2B 应用，服务即可命名可交易资产，第三方可直接订阅或调用服务而无需知道部署位置。传感器数据以语义命名，无需IP配置，大幅简化设备管理与互 操作性。 "现在不可能离开AI，基于AI会进一步挖掘空口的潜力。"邬贺铨强调。值得关注的是，如何将AI引入6G，目前仍然没有形成共识。邬贺铨还提到，当前 6G已经开 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reflects on its achievements in 2025 and emphasizes its commitment to embracing the new era of artificial intelligence while acknowledging the challenges posed by industry cycles and structural adjustments [1][5]. Group 1: Strategic Initiatives - The new "Connection + Computing Power" strategy has been implemented, leading to a return to revenue growth [5]. - The network business remains a solid profit foundation, while the computing power segment is developing new growth engines by serving key clients [5]. - The terminal business has launched the industry's first intelligent body smartphone, exploring new application avenues [5]. Group 2: Achievements and Recognition - The company received the highest SAIL award and topped the open-source rankings with its Intelligent Computing Super Node and "Co-Sight Super Intelligent Body," showcasing its strong R&D capabilities [2][5]. - The company maintained a top-level A rating in climate change leadership from CDP, reflecting its commitment to green development [2][5]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The company recognizes the complexities of the international environment and the uncertainties that may arise, while also noting the opportunities presented by domestic technological innovations such as AI and 5G-A [2][5]. - The company aims to ensure steady and sustainable growth by adhering to the principles of "Harmony and Prosperity" and "Quality Improvement and Profit Growth" [2][6]. Group 4: Market Strategy - The overseas market presents significant opportunities, and the company plans to deepen its presence in existing markets while capitalizing on the expansion of Chinese enterprises abroad [7]. - The domestic operator market will focus on stabilizing network structures and exploring new demand scenarios to expand growth [7]. - The company will enhance its brand and operational capabilities in the terminal business, particularly in the overseas market, while also advancing AI technology in domestic markets [7].

Core Insights - 6G technology is expected to commercialize around 2030 and is currently in the standardization phase, with AI becoming a key driver for its advancement and application scenarios [1] - The integration of AI with 6G will lead to AI capabilities being ubiquitous in future terminals, although edge computing and cloud collaboration will be necessary due to limitations in processing power at the device level [1] - The demand for network capabilities will increase significantly with the rise of AI applications, and telecom operators must adapt by creating integrated services that combine network capabilities with computing and data services to capture the core value of the AI ecosystem [1] Group 1 - The Fourth 6G Frontier Technology and Trends Forum was held in Beijing, highlighting the importance of AI in the development of 6G technology [2] - Experts emphasize the need for telecom operators to collaborate with ecosystem partners to seize new opportunities presented by AI-driven demand [1] - The transition from PC internet to mobile IoT has been significant, and the capabilities of 6G will meet the AI processing and service needs of various terminals [1] Group 2 - Different AI terminal forms will have varying network requirements, indicating a surge in network-related business due to the explosion of AI terminals [1] - The collaboration between terminal manufacturers and telecom operators is essential for enhancing terminal performance and ensuring mutual benefits [1] - The technical pathways for addressing B2B and B2C demands in the 6G era will be similar, focusing on intelligent frameworks to meet diverse needs [1]

Group 1 - The core prediction is that 6G is expected to be commercially available in China, Europe, India, Japan, South Korea, the United States, and Vietnam by 2030, with global connections projected to exceed 5 billion by 2040 [1] - The theme of the conference is "Intelligent Connection of the World, Co-constructing the 6G Technology Innovation Ecosystem," emphasizing the integration of communication, perception, computing, and intelligence technologies [1] Group 2 - 6G is currently in a critical phase of technological innovation and clear industry direction, requiring global collaboration among academia, industry, and users [2] - Terminal innovation is identified as a core aspect of building the 6G ecosystem, with AI smartphones expected to lead the next generation of smartphones, potentially capturing 54% of global smartphone shipments by 2028 [2] - The integration of AI and extended reality (XR) is anticipated to drive 6G development, shifting user experiences from "watching videos" to "entering videos" [2] Group 3 - Spectrum resources are deemed foundational for 6G development, with a significant increase in demand for spectrum in core cities expected over the next five years [3] - The GSMA advocates a "two-step" strategy for 6G, focusing first on maximizing 5G potential before advancing through innovations like AI-native networks and non-terrestrial networks [3] - China has developed over 300 key 6G technologies and established a three-pronged R&D system for technology breakthroughs, testing, and iterative optimization [3] Group 4 - As of November 2025, China is projected to account for 40.3% of global 6G patent applications, with Beijing establishing a collaborative framework to support 6G innovation and commercialization [4]

Core Insights - The 2025 6G Development Conference was held in Beijing, focusing on the application needs, key technologies, international standards, and industry research related to 6G [1][3] - Experts emphasized the necessity for new terminals to support 6G development, highlighting the intersection of 6G and AI as a transformative force for mobile terminals [1][4] Industry Developments - The IMT-2030 (6G) Promotion Group announced enhancements to the capabilities of public R&D facilities for 6G, indicating a critical phase of technological breakthroughs and standard research [3][6] - AI smartphones and intelligent devices are projected to be the main development directions for 6G, with AI smartphones expected to replace traditional smartphones [4][5] Market Trends - The global average smartphone replacement cycle is projected to be 51 months in 2024, with China expected to see a cycle of 44 months in 2025, reflecting a nearly 40% increase in duration since 2020 [3][4] - The consumer market is anticipated to remain the dominant business sector for 6G, necessitating new terminals and application services [4][5] Technological Innovations - AI smartphones will integrate large models into their operating systems, enhancing user experience through real-time interaction and personalized services [4][5] - The integration of AI and XR in terminals is expected to enhance interaction and immersion, positioning them as significant drivers for 6G [5][6] Future Applications - Nine potential application scenarios for 6G were identified, including holographic entertainment, personalized shopping, smart home management, immersive cloud office, and remote smart healthcare [5][6] - The development of new operating systems for intelligent terminals is anticipated to create new interaction points in the digital world [5][6]

Group 1 - The core prediction is that 6G is expected to be commercially available in China and several other countries by 2030, with global connections projected to exceed 5 billion by 2040 [1] - The theme of the conference was "Intelligent Connection of the World, Building a 6G Technology Innovation Ecosystem," emphasizing the integration of communication, perception, computing, and intelligence technologies [1] - Experts believe that 6G will expand its service targets from people and machines to intelligent entities, aiming for a vision of "ubiquitous intelligence and digital twins" [1] Group 2 - The year 2023 marks the full launch of 6G standardization research, with a focus on accelerating technological innovation and clear industry direction [2] - Terminal innovation is identified as a core aspect of building the 6G ecosystem, with AI smartphones expected to lead the next generation of smartphones, potentially capturing 54% of global smartphone shipments by 2028 [2] - The integration of AI and extended reality (XR) is anticipated to drive 6G development, shifting user experiences from "watching videos" to "entering videos" [2] Group 3 - Spectrum resources are deemed the foundation for 6G development, with a significant increase in demand for spectrum in core cities expected over the next five years [3] - The GSMA advocates a "two-step" strategy for 6G, focusing first on maximizing 5G potential before leveraging innovations like AI-native networks and non-terrestrial networks [3] - China has established over 300 key 6G technology reserves and is developing a three-pronged R&D system to support technological breakthroughs and testing [3] Group 4 - As of November 2025, China accounts for 40.3% of global 6G patent applications, with Beijing developing a collaborative framework to support 6G innovation and commercial deployment [4] - The conference was co-hosted by the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology and the IMT-2030 (6G) Promotion Group, with support from local government bodies [4]