27日，美国劳工统计局公布的数据显示： 美国1月核心PPI同比 3.6%，预期 3%，前值 3.3%。 美国1月PPI环比0.5%，预期0.3%，前值0.5%。 美国1月核心PPI环比0.8%，预期0.3%，前值0.7%。 美国1月生产者价格指数（PPI）全线超预期上涨，凸显通胀压力依然顽固。这一意外升温主要由服务成本飙升所驱动。剔除食品和能 源的核心PPI环比和同比增幅均大幅超出市场预期，创下近一年来的最快增速。 商品分项则呈现相反走势。1月最终需求商品价格环比下跌0.3%，主要受能源价格拖累——能源分项下降2.7%，食品价格下跌1.5%。 但剔除食品和能源后的核心商品价格环比上涨0.7%，为2022年初以来最大单月涨幅之一。 核心指标创近一年新高 在剔除波动较大的食品和能源成本后，核心PPI的涨幅更为显著，显示出潜在通胀的强劲势头。美国1月核心PPI环比激增0.8%，远高 于预期的0.3%，前值为0.7%。 美国1月PPI同比2.9%，预期:2.6%，前值：3% 生产者价格的强劲上涨引发了市场对通胀路径的重新评估。分析认为，PPI的超预期表现可能导致美联储密切关注的核心个人消费支出 （PCE）物价指数同样 ...

Core Viewpoint - The potential nomination of Kevin Hassett as the next Federal Reserve Chairman has shifted, with President Trump expressing a desire for Hassett to remain in his current role, leading to a decrease in Hassett's nomination probability and an increase for Kevin Walsh [1][3]. Market Reaction - Following Trump's comments, U.S. stock and bond markets experienced a sell-off, with the 10-year Treasury yield surpassing 4.2% for the first time since early September, and all three major stock indices reversing their initial gains [3]. - Investors are concerned that Hassett, viewed as a candidate likely to support interest rate cuts, may not be nominated, contributing to market volatility [3]. Nomination Probabilities - Hassett's probability of becoming the next Fed Chairman had previously been as high as 90% before mid-December last year, but has since declined due to opposition from Trump's allies [4][5]. - Current predictions show Walsh's nomination probability rising to 58% on Kalshi and 60% on Polymarket, while Hassett's has dropped to 15% and 16% respectively [1][3]. Future Outlook - Despite ongoing investigations into current Fed Chairman Powell, market expectations for the Fed's interest rate policy remain largely unchanged, with investors anticipating a total of 54 basis points in rate cuts by year-end [6][8]. - Key upcoming economic data, including the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index and the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), will be crucial in shaping future Fed policy expectations [8].

Core Insights - Morgan Stanley anticipates that the upcoming US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for September will show core CPI remaining elevated, with overall inflation slightly above core inflation due to factors such as tariff costs and rising energy prices [1][3] - The firm predicts a month-over-month increase of 0.32% in core CPI and a year-over-year increase of 3.12%, marking the fourth consecutive month of positive core goods inflation, primarily driven by the gradual transmission of tariff-related costs to consumers [1] - The estimated contribution of tariffs to year-over-year core CPI is projected to rise to 35 basis points if the data meets expectations, approaching half of the total expected impact of tariffs [1] Inflation Performance - Overall CPI is expected to outperform core CPI, with a month-over-month increase of 0.41%, driven by a significant rebound in energy prices, which are forecasted to rise by 2.00% [3] - In contrast, food price inflation is expected to slow down, with a projected month-over-month increase of 0.19%, lower than August's 0.46% [3] Specific Categories - Core goods prices are anticipated to continue a moderate increase, despite a slowdown in the growth rates of clothing, new cars, and used cars, while other categories are expected to accelerate after an unexpected decline in August [5] - Housing rent is projected to see a slight pullback, with month-over-month growth expected to be below 0.30% [5] - Core services inflation, excluding housing, is expected to rebound to 0.40%, primarily driven by medical services, while growth in airline ticket prices and hotel rates is expected to weaken [5] Key Observations - The speed of tariff transmission is ongoing but appears to be slowing, with ISM and PMI price indicators remaining high but recently declining, reducing the likelihood of core goods month-over-month growth exceeding 0.4% [5] - Auto insurance inflation is expected to continue to slow, with year-over-year growth potentially dropping below 2% by Q1 2026 [5] - Seasonal adjustment factors for used car CPI may distort policymakers' interpretation of inflation data [5] Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) - Morgan Stanley forecasts a month-over-month increase of 0.30% in the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, slightly above the previous month's 0.23% [5] - Financial services inflation is expected to remain high at 0.53%, reflecting strong stock market performance in July and August, while medical services inflation is projected to rise from 0.09% in August to 0.50% [5] - Core services PCE, excluding housing, is expected to see a month-over-month increase of 0.32% [5]