证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2025 年 08 月 28 日 潮宏基（002345.SZ） 25H1 盈利能力显著提升，下半年开店有望提速 消费品/商业 25H1 公司实现收入 41.02 亿元/+19.54%，归母净利润 3.31 亿元/+44.34%； 25Q2 收入 18.50 亿元/+13.13%，归母净利润 1.42 亿元/+44.29%。上半年产品 结构优化带动毛利率改善，规模效应下费用率持续优化，盈利能力显著提升。 渠道端上半年进行直营店调整，下半年开店有望提速。预计公司 2025-2027 年 归母净利润分别为 4.98 亿、6.30 亿、7.61 亿，对应 25PE25.6X，维持"强烈 推荐"评级。 强烈推荐（维持） 目标估值：NA 当前股价：14.36 元 基础数据 | 总股本（百万股） | 889 | | --- | --- | | 已上市流通股（百万股） | 867 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 12.8 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 12.5 | | 每股净资产（MRQ） | 4.1 | | ROE（TTM） | 8.1 | | 资产负债率 | 36.3% | | 主要股东 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The gold and jewelry industry is undergoing a transformation from a B2B (channel-driven) model to a B2C (user-driven) value chain, necessitating a shift towards a user value-centric business philosophy [1][2][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Consumer Segmentation**: There is a clear differentiation in consumer groups, with stable demand in the high-end market (e.g., Lao Feng Xiang, Chow Tai Fook) and opportunities in the mass market. Brands need to accurately position themselves to meet diverse consumer needs, particularly targeting the younger generation (ages 18-34), which contributes approximately 30% of retail sales [1][2][5]. - **Shift in Consumption Patterns**: Gold consumption is transitioning from a focus on value preservation to self-pleasure, indicating a need for brands to adapt their market positioning from repetitive to aesthetic consumption [1][6]. - **B2B vs. B2C Value Chains**: The B2B value chain relies on deep distribution and channel expansion, while the B2C value chain focuses on creating user value and meeting consumer needs. The B2B model is becoming less sustainable due to over-distribution, leading to significant retail terminal losses (15%-20%) [1][7][12]. - **Impact of Information Technology**: The empowerment of consumers through information technology has accelerated the transition from B2B to B2C. User-generated content (UGC) significantly influences purchasing decisions, necessitating brands to prioritize consumer feedback and engage in precise marketing [1][8]. Additional Important Insights - **Differentiation Strategies**: Some brands have achieved counter-cyclical growth through differentiated positioning. For instance, Lao Pu targets high-net-worth individuals, while Chao Hong Ji focuses on the light luxury middle class, and Man Ka Long appeals to the young fashion demographic [1][9][10]. - **Cultural and IP Significance**: Cultural elements and intellectual property (IP) are crucial for enhancing competitiveness. Unique designs, such as Van Cleef & Arpels' four-leaf clover, contribute to brand recognition and market strength [3][13]. - **Challenges of Price Models**: The one-price model is unlikely to become mainstream, as it is more suited for luxury and small-weight products. Brands need to enhance their value chain reconstruction capabilities and invest in R&D [3][15][17]. - **Emerging Designer Brands**: The market may see the rise of small, unique designer brands that leverage social media for marketing and sales. These brands, while small, can achieve high profitability and may eventually be acquired by larger companies [26]. Future Considerations - **Brand Upgrades**: Brands like Junpei Jewelry and Chow Tai Fook's DIY sub-brand are noteworthy for their innovative approaches to product lines and consumer engagement [25]. - **Market Trends**: The overall sales of emerging jewelry brands like Man Ka Long are still relatively low, but they are gaining traction through unique designs and innovative marketing strategies [27][28]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the ongoing changes and challenges within the gold and jewelry industry.

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong financial performance in Q1 2025, with significant year-on-year growth in revenue and net profit, indicating a positive trend in product strength and consumer recognition [1][4]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 2.252 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.36%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 189 million yuan, up 44.38% year-on-year [1]. - The company's net profit for 2024 was 194 million yuan, reflecting a decline of 41.91% year-on-year, while the adjusted net profit was 187 million yuan, down 38.72% year-on-year [1]. - The comprehensive gross margin for Q1 2025 was 22.93%, a decrease of 1.99 percentage points compared to the previous year [1]. Expense Management - The company's expense ratio for Q1 2025 was 11.48%, down 3.09 percentage points year-on-year, with specific expense ratios for sales, management, R&D, and finance being 8.76%, 1.30%, 1.03%, and 0.39% respectively [2]. - In 2024, the overall expense ratio was 15.29%, which also saw a year-on-year decline of 2.47 percentage points [2]. Product and Channel Development - The company is focusing on enhancing product design and has launched several new series, including collaborations with well-known IPs like Doraemon and Crayon Shin-chan to attract younger consumers [3]. - In 2024, the total number of "CHJ潮宏基" jewelry stores increased by 129, reaching 1,505 stores, with 1,268 being franchise stores [3]. - The company has expanded into overseas markets, opening stores in Malaysia and Thailand in 2024 [3]. Profit Forecast - The company has raised its profit forecast, increasing the expected net profit for 2025 and 2026 by 1% and 2% to 441 million yuan and 502 million yuan respectively, and has added a forecast for 2027 of 544 million yuan [4]. - The company continues to expand its product matrix, enhance product design, and optimize channel structure, maintaining a "buy" rating [4].