业 及 产 业 农林牧渔 2026 年 03 月 01 日 节后猪价如期下跌，看好产能去化加速 看好 —— 农林牧渔周观点（2026.2.23-2026.3.1） 本期投资提示： 券 研 究 报 证券分析师 盛瀚 A0230522080006 shenghan@swsresearch.com 研究支持 朱珺逸 A0230521080004 zhujy@swsresearch.com 胡静航 A0230524090002 hujh@swsresearch.com 联系人 盛瀚 A0230522080006 shenghan@swsresearch.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 行 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证 告 - ⚫ 本周申万农林牧渔指数上升 4.0%，沪深 300 上涨 1.1%。个股涨幅前五名：亚盛集团（17.5%）、绿康 生化（13.2%）、冠农股份（12.8%）、新赛股份（12.8%）、众兴菌业（12.3%），跌幅前五名：中水渔业 （-4.3%）、国联水产（-3.8%）、中宠股份（-1.8%）、播恩集团（-1.7%）、京 ...

连队大食堂门口已经热闹起来了，人们正忙着杀年猪。猪是连队副业组饲养的，喂了整整一年。此刻， 一群人围在雪地上，一头肥猪被死死按倒，猪发出犀利的嚎叫声，刺破了冬日的宁静。高高的土灶边， 一口大铁锅架在上面，锅里的水已经咕嘟咕嘟地沸腾了。灶边的平台上，躺着一头刚宰杀完的大肥猪。 两人端着水瓢往猪身上浇烫水，另两人拿着刮毛的铁铲，弯着腰用力刮毛。我和小伙伴站在一旁，开心 地咧着嘴笑——因为我们知道，很快就能吃上香气扑鼻的红烧肉了。 那天傍晚，父亲下班回家，一进屋就对母亲说："今年春节会餐一定很隆重，我刚才回来，见食堂门口 杀了好几头大肥猪。"母亲笑了，说："那敢情好，咱们的孩子们都快要馋死了。但愿这回红烧肉能给多 一点。" 雪花仿佛也闻到了浓浓的年味，大年三十这天急急地赶来，在天空中漫天飞舞。连队的大喇叭里，老连 长洪亮的声音传了出来："全连的职工同志们请注意，今天食堂给大家会餐！听到通知后，速来大礼堂 就餐！不想在这里吃的，也可以领回去，与家人一起吃！" 话音落下，白雪覆盖的连队里，犬吠声、开门声、踏雪声响成一片，汇聚成了新年的进行曲。职工们纷 纷出门，兴高采烈地端着碗、拿着盆，踏着积雪向大礼堂走去。 ●张继 春 ...

Investment Rating - The food and beverage industry is rated as stable for 2025 and 2026 [1] Core Insights - The food and beverage industry in China includes various sub-industries such as agriculture, food processing, and beverage manufacturing, closely linked to economic development, population structure, and consumer preferences. Despite ongoing economic pressures and weak consumer demand, the industry continues to grow, although revenue growth rates are declining and profitability is weakening [1][6] - The agricultural sector shows a steady increase in grain planting area and production, with major crops like rice, wheat, and corn maintaining a balance between supply and demand. However, some crop prices are under pressure due to supply-demand dynamics and international trade conditions [24][25] - The food manufacturing sector is experiencing stable growth, with overall profitability remaining flat. The industry is characterized by increasing fixed asset investments and a slight increase in total assets [52][53] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance - The food and beverage industry has a total asset value of 8.42 trillion yuan at the end of 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 3.59%. The industry’s revenue for 2024 is 9.07 trillion yuan, showing a slight decline of 0.20% year-on-year [7][11] - By the end of September 2025, the industry’s total assets increased to 8.61 trillion yuan, with a revenue of 6.71 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.75% [7][11] 2. Agricultural Sector - The agricultural sector's total output value reached 162,787.5 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 2.7%. The grain planting area for 2024 and 2025 is projected to be 11,931.9 million hectares and 11,940.9 million hectares, respectively [24][25] - Grain production is expected to increase, with total grain output for 2024 and 2025 estimated at 70.65 million tons and 71.49 million tons, respectively [27] 3. Feed Industry - The feed industry is experiencing growth in production, influenced by the recovery of the livestock sector. The total industrial feed production for 2024 is 31,503.1 million tons, showing a year-on-year decline of 2.1% [45] - The feed prices are expected to remain low due to fluctuations in raw material prices and weak downstream demand [49] 4. Food Manufacturing - The food manufacturing sector continues to grow, with total assets reaching 2.41 trillion yuan by September 2025, reflecting a 4% increase year-on-year. The revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 is 1.63 trillion yuan, with a slight decrease in profit margins [52][53] 5. Livestock Industry - The livestock sector is under pressure, with pork prices gradually declining. The production of beef is increasing, while sheep meat production is decreasing due to weak demand [56][58] - The overall production of meat is expected to grow, with pork production for 2024 and 2025 estimated at 5,706.03 million tons and 5,938 million tons, respectively [58]

以下文章来源于21财闻汇 ，作者谢之迎 21财闻汇 . 21世纪经济报道官方旗下矩阵成员，做有趣有料的财经新闻。 记者丨谢之迎 编辑丨谭璐 泰国富豪家族，参投全球最大养猪企业。 2月上旬，牧原股份成功登陆港交所，募资超100亿港元。在一众明星基石投资者中， 正大集 团一家认购2亿美元，约合14亿人民币，金额位居首位。 这笔投资，也在情理之中。 在中国，正大集团的布局，遍布饲料、养殖、食品加工等各个领域。养猪的牧原，就在其产 业链上。 正大由泰国华人谢氏家族掌舵，产业遍及全球。 在2025胡润全球富豪榜上，谢氏家族的身家 超2200亿元，位列全球第50。 谢镕仁 图源：正大集团 据报道，侯孝海入职后，主要将负责正大集团中国区消费品的市场与营销整合工作，包括鸡 蛋、猪肉、鸡肉、食品、饲料等业务的营销整合。 从业务来看，谢氏家族"从农场到餐桌"的产业链相当完备，覆盖种植、饲料、养殖、屠宰、 深加工、物流配送、商业零售和餐饮。 以正大食品为例，旗下包括鸡蛋、猪肉、水产、蔬果等生鲜食品，以及速冻面点、休闲小食 等方便食品。甚至延伸到葡萄酒、茶叶、咖啡、矿泉水等饮品。 | No. 50 | ~ 5 | ¥ 2200 亿 ...

Overall Situation - A total of 77 batches of food were sampled, including 23 batches of edible agricultural products, 9 batches of frozen foods, 9 batches of candy products, 9 batches of condiments, 6 batches of meat products, 4 batches of alcoholic beverages, 4 batches of drinks, 3 batches of fried foods and nuts, 3 batches of sugar, 3 batches of fruit products, 2 batches of potato and puffed foods, 1 batch of dairy products, and 1 batch of grain processing products [3]. Food Safety Supervision - All sampled food products were found to be qualified, indicating a successful food safety supervision effort by the Heping County Market Supervision Administration [2][3]. Consumer Safety Tips - Consumers are advised to purchase food from reliable channels and retain shopping receipts, check packaging for relevant labels (such as production date, shelf life, producer name and address, ingredient list, and food production license number), avoid products without factory name, address, production date, and shelf life, and refrain from purchasing expired products or those listed as unqualified [4].

Core Viewpoint - Tyson Foods reported a 5.1% year-over-year revenue growth in Q1 of fiscal year 2026, driven by strong performance in the chicken segment, while the beef segment's losses narrowed [1][3]. Recent Events - The company announced the closure of a major beef processing plant in Lexington, Nebraska, which accounted for approximately 4.8% of the national daily processing capacity, and plans to reduce production at a Texas beef plant to a single shift. This decision is in response to ongoing losses in the beef sector, which recorded a loss of $426 million in fiscal year 2025, and industry-wide challenges related to a shortage of beef supply in the U.S. [2] Performance and Operations - Total revenue for the first quarter of fiscal year 2026 reached $14.313 billion, exceeding market expectations. The chicken segment's sales increased by 3.6% to $4.212 billion, prompting the company to raise its adjusted operating profit forecast for this segment to between $1.65 billion and $1.9 billion for the year [3]. - The beef segment saw an 8.2% increase in revenue, with average prices rising by 17%. However, the adjusted operating loss was $319 million. Management narrowed the annual loss forecast for the beef segment from a range of $400 million to $600 million to between $250 million and $500 million, reflecting improvements in cost control and pricing power [3]. Company Status - The company will distribute a dividend of $0.51 per share on June 1, 2026, with the ex-dividend date and record date being the same day, and the payment date set for June 15, 2026 [4]. Future Development - The company is shifting its strategic focus towards the chicken segment, enhancing competitiveness through smart farming, automated processing line upgrades, and increased investment in organic and antibiotic-free chicken products [5]. - The industry continues to face supply bottlenecks, with the U.S. cattle herd at a 75-year low, and high procurement costs for live cattle are expected to constrain the recovery of beef profits. Tyson Foods' performance and pricing dynamics are viewed as important indicators for observing the stickiness of food inflation in the U.S. [5]

财报分析 经济观察网泰森食品2026财年第一季度总营收143.13亿美元，同比增长5.1%，超出市场预期；调整后每 股收益0.97美元，高于分析师平均预期，但同比下降15%。公司上调了鸡肉业务全年利润预期，并收窄 了牛肉业务的亏损预期。 泰森食品于2026年2月2日公布2026财年第一季度(截至2025年12月27日)业绩，总营收达143.13亿美元， 同比增长5.1%，超出市场预期；调整后每股收益0.97美元，高于分析师平均预期的0.95美元，但同比下 降15%。公司上调鸡肉业务全年调整后经营利润预期至16.5亿—19亿美元(原预期12.5亿—15亿美元)，牛 肉业务亏损预期收窄至2.5亿—5亿美元(原预期4亿—6亿美元)。鸡肉业务销售额42.12亿美元，同比增长 3.6%，连续第五个季度销量增长；牛肉业务营收57.71亿美元，同比增长8.2%，但调整后运营亏损3.19 亿美元，受美国牛源短缺拖累。 股票近期走势 近7个交易日(2026年2月6日至12日)，泰森食品股价区间振幅4.43%，累计下跌2.47%，成交额约6.38亿 美元。截至2月12日收盘，股价报63.59美元，单日下跌1.17%，年初至今累计 ...

Core Insights - Tyson Foods reported better-than-expected performance for Q1 of FY2026, with total revenue reaching $14.313 billion, a 5.1% year-over-year increase, surpassing Wall Street expectations [2] Financial Performance - The beef segment revenue increased by 8.2% to $5.771 billion, with average prices rising by 17% year-over-year [2] - Chicken segment revenue grew by 3.6% to $4.212 billion [2] - Adjusted earnings per share were $0.97, exceeding analyst expectations [2] - The company narrowed its projected operating loss for the beef segment from a range of $400 million to $600 million to $250 million to $500 million [2] Business Developments - Tyson Foods announced the closure of a major beef plant in Lexington, Nebraska, which processes about 4.8% of the U.S. beef supply, and scaled back production at a Texas beef processing facility [3] - These adjustments aim to address ongoing losses in the beef segment, which reported a loss of $426 million in FY2025, and to tackle the issue of beef supply shortages, with cattle herd sizes at a 75-year low [3] - The company indicated that these changes may alleviate cost pressures by reducing competition on the supply side [3] Industry Environment - Tyson Foods' performance reflects the persistent nature of food inflation in the U.S., particularly in beef prices and strong chicken demand, which may impact future cost structures and pricing strategies [4] - The USDA indicates that the beef supply shortage is unlikely to be resolved in the short term, potentially continuing to constrain profit recovery in the beef segment [4]

（原标题：过去五年巴西肉类出口增长近38%） 巴西农业频道1月20日报道，2021年至2025年期间，巴西肉类出口量从681万吨增长至937万吨，增 幅达37.6%。其中，鸡肉出口量由424万吨增至496万吨，增长17.0%；牛肉出口量从156万吨上升至309 万吨，增幅高达98.1%；猪肉出口量由101万吨增至132万吨，同比增长30.7%。中国是巴西牛肉和鸡肉 的主要出口国，分别占巴西牛肉出口总量的近50%以及鸡肉出口总量的18%。尽管南共市与欧盟签署的 自由贸易协定有望进一步推动巴西肉类出口，但该协定对出口的积极影响在2026年或2027年尚不明显， 预计自第五年起效应将逐步显现。 ...

Core Insights - Tyson Foods reported Q1 FY2026 revenue of $14.31 billion, a 5.1% year-over-year increase, exceeding market expectations [1][2] - Adjusted operating income was $572 million, reflecting a 13% decline compared to the previous year [1][2] - The company raised its full-year adjusted operating profit forecast for the chicken segment to $1.65 billion to $1.9 billion, up from a prior estimate of $1.25 billion to $1.5 billion [2] - The beef segment's loss forecast was narrowed to $250 million to $500 million, down from an earlier estimate of $400 million to $600 million [2] Financial Performance - Chicken segment sales reached $4.21 billion, marking a 3.6% year-over-year growth, achieving sales growth for the fifth consecutive quarter [2] - Beef segment revenue was $5.77 billion, an 8.2% increase year-over-year, but adjusted operating loss was $319 million [2] Stock Performance - Over the past 7 trading days (February 5 to 11, 2026), Tyson Foods' stock price fluctuated by 3.37%, with a cumulative decline of 0.35% and a trading volume of approximately $611 million [3] - The latest closing price on February 11 was $64.77, with a single-day drop of 0.29% and a year-to-date increase of 10.49% [3] - The price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) stands at 115.66, with a dividend yield of 3.13% [3] Recent Events - Tyson Foods announced a dividend of $0.51 per share, with the ex-dividend date set for June 1, 2026, and the payment date on June 15, 2026 [4] Institutional Insights - As of February 2026, 16 institutions cover Tyson Foods, with 38% recommending buy or hold, and 56% suggesting hold [5] - The average target price is set at $68.09, with Q1 FY2026 earnings per share expected to be $0.946, a 14.91% year-over-year decline [5]