丨证券研究报告丨 公司研究丨点评报告丨分众传媒（002027.SZ） [Table_Title] 逆周期稳健增长，并购新潮有望改善梯媒竞争格 局 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 分众公布 2024 年报和 2025 年一季报：2024 年，公司实现营收 122.62 亿/+3.01%，实现归母 净利 51.55 亿/+6.80%；2025Q1，公司实现营收 28.58 亿/+4.70%，实现归母净利 11.35 亿 /+9.14%。公司拟向全体股东每 10 股派发现金红利 2.30 元（含税）。公司收入稳健增长，毛利 率略有上行，并且继续加大点位开拓，收购新潮后有望实现协同发展。公司保持高分红预期， 我们持续看好楼宇媒体赛道的投资价值，维持"买入"评级。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 高超 SAC：S0490516080001 SFC：BUX177 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 分众传媒（002027.SZ） cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title 逆周期稳健增长2] ，并购新潮有望改善梯媒竞争 格局 [Ta ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported its 2024 annual report and 2025 Q1 report, showing mixed performance with a slight revenue growth for the year but a decline in Q4 2024 revenue, while Q1 2025 showed recovery in revenue growth [1][2]. Revenue Summary - For 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 12.262 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3%. In Q4 2024, revenue was 3.001 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 7%, while Q1 2025 revenue was 2.858 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5% [1]. - In H2 2024, elevator media revenue was 6.044 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1%, while cinema media revenue was 235 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 40%. The decline in cinema media was attributed to weak domestic box office performance affecting advertiser demand [2]. Profit Summary - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 was 5.155 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7%. In Q4 2024, net profit was 1.187 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 3%, while Q1 2025 net profit was 1.135 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9% [1]. - The company faced credit impairment losses impacting profits, with Q4 2024 losses of 32 million yuan and Q1 2025 losses of 52 million yuan, reflecting macroeconomic influences on advertiser payment cycles [5]. Cost Summary - In 2024, cinema media costs decreased by 30%, leading to a gross margin increase of 9 percentage points to 70%. Conversely, elevator media rental costs are expected to increase by 9%, with a 2% increase in per unit rental costs [4]. - The company maintained a gross margin of 66% for elevator media, remaining stable year-on-year, aided by reduced equipment depreciation and lower employee compensation costs [4]. Dividend Summary - The company announced a total dividend of 4.766 billion yuan for 2024, with a dividend payout ratio of 92.4%, slightly lower than the previous year's 98.7% [6]. Earnings Forecast - The company forecasts revenues of 12.5 billion yuan, 12.9 billion yuan, and 13.4 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with net profits of 5.4 billion yuan, 5.7 billion yuan, and 6 billion yuan, corresponding to PE ratios of 18x, 17x, and 17x [7].

Group 1: Advertising Market Overview - In 2024, the domestic advertising market increased by 1.6% year-on-year, maintaining reasonable fluctuations despite a slowdown in growth compared to the previous year [3] - The outdoor advertising market in China reached approximately 85.22 billion RMB in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of about 3.86% [3] - The market size of outdoor video advertising in 2024 was approximately 48.32 billion RMB, accounting for about 56.7% of the overall outdoor advertising market [3] - In Q1 2025, the domestic advertising market saw a slight decline of 0.4% year-on-year, with January showing a growth of 3.5% and February experiencing a drop of 6.7% due to the Spring Festival [4] Group 2: Company Performance - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 12,262.10 million RMB, a 3.01% increase from the previous year [5] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 5,155.39 million RMB, up 6.80% year-on-year [5] - In Q1 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 2,857.74 million RMB, a 4.70% increase compared to the same period last year [6] - The net profit attributable to shareholders in Q1 2025 was 1,135.17 million RMB, reflecting a 9.14% year-on-year growth [6] Group 3: Client Structure and Industry Trends - The largest client sector for the company in 2024 was daily consumer goods, contributing 58.76% of revenue from building media [7] - The company is focusing on expanding its client base in cosmetics, internet, cloud computing, artificial intelligence, and emerging brands [7] - In 2024, revenue from daily consumer goods clients in building media grew by 14.63%, significantly outpacing overall revenue growth [8] Group 4: Strategic Insights and Future Outlook - The company aims to enhance operational efficiency and resource allocation through acquisitions, such as the acquisition of New潮传媒 [10] - The company plans to continue its dual strategy of deepening domestic operations while expanding globally, targeting growth in overseas markets [13] - The company is committed to leveraging AI technology to improve client services and operational efficiency [14] - The proposed cash dividend for 2024 is approximately 4.766 billion RMB, representing about 92.45% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [15]

游戏、出版、广告、影视，各显神通。 作者 | 贝壳XY 编辑 | 小白 春节将至，风云君先给大家拜个早年，祝大家蛇年大吉，我们新春看消费系列也迎来收官之作——传 媒。 截至2024年末，申万传媒指数较年初上涨2.78%，区间最大涨幅64.25%。乍一看似乎不错，但在去年 强力政策催化和宏观经济调整下，这样的涨幅显然是不够看的，不仅跑输沪深300、上证指数，而且 在31个行业大类中也位列中下游。 9月下旬起，在政策助力下，传媒板块跟随大盘大涨。11月，又受到海外AI应用陆续爆发的影响，国 内AI营销、AI玩具等赛道一时成为市场焦点，带动传媒板块进一步上涨。年尾又随着热度消退而跌 回起点，仅比年初高出2.78%。 聚焦传媒板块前十大公司，包括分众传媒（002027.SZ）、芒果超媒（300413.SZ）、昆仑万维（3004 18.SZ）、三七互娱（002555.SZ）、凤凰传媒（601928.SH）、恺英网络（002517.SZ）、光线传媒 （300251.SZ）、中南传媒（601098.SH）、万达电影（002739.SZ）、东方明珠（600637.SH），表现 多数优于板块整体。 注：剔除被实施风险警示股票S ...