黄金亚盘早段一度触及两周低点，回踩至4000美元附近。市场情绪受到中美贸易关系改善的提振，中美 双方在贸易协议框架上达成原则性共识，美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特表示，新协议将取消原定于11月1 日对中国产品加征100%关税的计划，并推动TikTok出售等议题取得突破。美国总统预计将在韩国亚洲 峰会期间与中国领导人举行双边会晤，巩固合作信号。分析人士指出，贸易消息的积极进展短线削弱避 险情绪，但美联储降息前景为黄金提供下方支撑。 美联储将于周三公布最新政策决定，市场普遍押注本次会议将降息25个基点至3.75%—4.00%区间。根 据芝商所（CME）"美联储观察"数据，降息预期概率高达97%。分析认为，此举或降低持有无收益资产 的机会成本，对黄金构成支撑。然而，美国政府停摆风险与持续的通胀压力，使得联储内部在"进一步 宽松"与"维持观望"之间意见不一。若鲍威尔在会后新闻发布会上释放鸽派信号，美元可能继续承压。 美元指数（DXY）在亚洲早盘维持弱势，交投于98.70附近。市场认为，美联储若确认宽松路径，将削 弱美元收益优势。与此同时，中美在出口管制、农产品贸易、芬太尼治理及船舶税等议题上取得共识， 为双边关系改善奠定 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Gold**: The overall trend of Shanghai gold futures is in an upward channel, currently possibly at the end of the trend. In the short - term, the market may maintain high - level oscillations. In the long - term, the long - term support factors remain unchanged, and gold has a solid foundation for long - term growth. It is recommended to wait and see in the medium - term, and for the current week, the main gold contract 2512 is expected to oscillate strongly at a high level, and it is advisable to buy on dips [7][8][11]. - **Silver**: The overall trend of Shanghai silver futures is in a strong upward stage, currently at the end of the trend. In the short - term, it is necessary to be vigilant against fluctuations caused by high - level profit - taking and the easing of the geopolitical situation. In the long - term, the upward logic remains unchanged, and the silver price is expected to continue the upward trend in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to wait and see in the medium - term, and for the current week, silver is expected to oscillate strongly at a high level, and it is advisable to buy on dips [32][33][37]. 3. Summary by Catalog Gold Futures - **Mid - line Market Analysis** - **Trend Judgment**: The overall trend of Shanghai gold futures is in an upward channel, currently possibly at the end of the trend [7]. - **Trend Logic**: Last week, the gold price continued to soar under multiple positive factors, but there was an obvious correction on Friday. This week, the market may maintain high - level oscillations. In the long - term, factors such as continuous gold purchases by global central banks, damage to the US dollar credit system, and the continuation of the monetary easing cycle support the long - term rise of gold [7]. - **Mid - line Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see [8]. - **Variety Trading Strategy** - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: For the gold contract 2512, be vigilant against technical corrections caused by the departure of profit - taking orders, with the lower support level at 898 - 903, and it was recommended to wait and see [10]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: The main gold contract 2512 is expected to oscillate strongly at a high level. It is recommended to buy on dips, with the upper resistance level at 985 - 1000 and the lower support level at 950 - 965 [11]. - **Related Data Situation** - Data on the price trends of Shanghai gold and COMEX gold, SPDR gold ETF holdings, COMEX gold inventory, US 10 - year Treasury bond yields, US dollar index, US dollar against offshore RMB, gold - silver ratio, Shanghai gold basis, and gold internal - external price difference are presented in graphical form [19][22][24] Silver Futures - **Mid - line Market Analysis** - **Trend Judgment**: The overall trend of Shanghai silver futures is in a strong upward stage, currently at the end of the trend [32]. - **Trend Logic**: Last week, silver reached a phased high, driven by factors such as structural shortages in the London spot market, strengthened expectations of Fed interest rate cuts, continuous reduction of domestic inventories, and increased capital activity. In the long - term, the upward logic remains unchanged, and the silver price is expected to continue the upward trend in the fourth quarter, but short - term fluctuations need attention [32]. - **Mid - line Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see [33]. - **Variety Trading Strategy** - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: It was expected that silver would mainly oscillate at a high level, and it was recommended to buy on dips, with the lower support range at 10700 - 11000 [36]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: Silver is expected to oscillate strongly at a high level. It is recommended to buy on dips, with the lower support range at 10940 - 11240 [37]. - **Related Data Situation** - Data on the price trends of Shanghai silver and COMEX silver, SLV silver ETF holdings, COMEX silver inventory, Shanghai silver basis, and silver internal - external price difference are presented in graphical form [44][46][48]

Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various commodities, including energy, metals, chemicals, and agricultural products, and provides short - to medium - term outlooks and trading suggestions based on supply - demand relationships, geopolitical factors, and policy expectations [2][3][4] - Geopolitical factors such as the Russia - US summit, the US government shutdown, and Sino - US trade frictions have significant impacts on the market, causing price fluctuations and uncertainties [2][3][44] - Many commodities face challenges such as high inventory, weak demand, and supply - demand imbalances, which affect their price trends [37][38][40] Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Overnight futures prices declined. Geopolitical risks decreased, and Sino - US trade frictions and inventory increases put pressure on the market. The medium - term outlook is bearish [2] - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Geopolitical factors affected prices. High - sulfur fuel oil has short - term support but medium - term pressure, and low - sulfur fuel oil has a weak fundamental outlook [22] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: Saudi's price forecast increased. In the traditional peak season, demand expectations are strong, and the market is gradually recovering from the low level [24] - **Asphalt**: Inventory decreased, and the supply - demand balance is tight. There is a slight inventory accumulation expectation at the end of 2025, and the support may weaken in the later Q4 [23] Metals - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver reached new highs. The US government shutdown and expected interest rate cuts support the long - term upward trend, but short - term volatility risks are high [3] - **Base Metals**: - **Copper**: Prices are expected to fluctuate temporarily, affected by trade tensions and inventory changes [4] - **Aluminum**: It is running strongly in the short term, testing the previous high resistance. The inventory is at a neutral level, and the supply - demand situation is relatively stable [5] - **Zinc**: LME inventory is low, and the decline has slowed. The domestic market has support at the bottom but lacks upward momentum, and it is expected to fluctuate in a range [8] - **Lead**: It is in a low - level and weak oscillation. The cost has strong support, and it is expected to fluctuate within a specific range [9] - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: Nickel prices are weak, and the fundamentals of stainless steel are poor. The market is affected by macro - factors and inventory changes [10] - **Tin**: High - position short positions can be held. There are resistance levels at certain price points [11] - **Carbonate Lithium**: The price rebounds, and the market trading is light. It is in a low - level oscillation, waiting for a clear trend [12] - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures price rises slightly, and the spot is under pressure. It is expected to oscillate in the short term due to production and cost factors [13] - **Polysilicon**: The futures price rebounds, driven by policy expectations. There is a risk of a callback due to high inventory and uncertain policies [14] - **Iron Ore**: The supply is relatively stable, and the demand is in a recovery stage. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level [16] - **Coke & Coking Coal**: The prices are oscillating upward. The supply is abundant, and the downstream demand provides support. The market is affected by safety inspections and trade frictions [17][18] - **Manganese Silicon & Ferrosilicon**: The prices are oscillating. The demand is stable, and the supply is at a high level. They are affected by external trade frictions [19][20] Chemicals - **Urea**: The price is in a low - level oscillation. The supply is high, and the demand is weak. The market is expected to remain weak [25] - **Methanol**: The import supply in coastal areas has slowed down, and the inventory in production enterprises has increased. It is necessary to pay attention to port inventory and trade disputes [26] - **Pure Benzene**: The current fundamentals are good, but the price may be dragged down by falling oil prices. The industry valuation is low [27] - **Styrene**: The supply is sufficient, and the demand is uncertain due to high inventory and trade conflicts [28] - **Polypropylene, Plastic, & Propylene**: The supply is loose, and the demand is weak. The downstream is cautious in purchasing [29] - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC supply is high, and the demand is weak. The export is under pressure. Caustic soda demand has improved, and the price decline is limited [30] - **PX & PTA**: PX supply is temporarily reduced, and PTA supply is expected to increase. The overall demand is expected to weaken [31] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price is at the bottom of the range, and the market is affected by oil prices and trade relations [32] - **Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip**: Short - fiber demand has improved, and bottle - chip has a good spot market but faces long - term over - capacity pressure [33] Agricultural Products - **Soybeans & Soybean Meal**: The supply is sufficient, and the inventory is high. The price is expected to oscillate downward if the Sino - US trade relationship does not improve [37] - **Edible Oils**: The market has certain resilience. Palm oil has a production reduction cycle, and domestic soybean oil has high inventory. It is recommended to buy at low prices after the price bottoms out [38] - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: The price is expected to oscillate in the short term. The inventory is decreasing slowly, and the trade relationship between China and Canada needs attention [39] - **Soybeans**: The price of domestic soybeans is strong, and the price of imported soybeans may be affected by demand [40] - **Corn**: The price is at the bottom and is expected to gradually approach the bottom [41] - **Pigs**: The futures price is at a low level, and the spot price is rebounding. The industry is in the process of capacity reduction, and the market has support in the medium - term [42] - **Eggs**: The spot price rebounds, and the futures price declines. There is a risk of further price decline in the medium - term [43] - **Cotton**: The price is oscillating. The new cotton cost provides support, but there is also hedging pressure. The demand is weak in the peak season [44] - **Sugar**: The international supply is sufficient, and the domestic production expectation is good. The price is affected by weather and production in different regions [45] - **Apples**: The price is oscillating. The supply is stable, and the inventory may be higher than expected, so the price faces pressure [46] - **Wood**: The supply is low, and the demand is weak. The inventory pressure is small. It is recommended to wait and see [47] - **Paper Pulp**: The supply is relatively loose, and the demand is average. The price is affected by inventory and overseas quotations [48] Others - **Shipping Index (European Line)**: The market is in a situation of weak reality and strong expectation, and the price is oscillating. The actual implementation of price increases needs to be observed [21] - **Stock Index**: The market is oscillating with volume contraction. The style may rotate, and it is recommended to increase the allocation of technology - growth sectors in the medium - term [49] - **Treasury Bonds**: The futures price rises, and the yield curve steepening may end. The market is expected to enter a repair stage [50]

Fundamental Analysis - The spot silver (XAG/USD) continued its pullback on October 17, dropping to $53.65 per ounce, down from the historical high of $54.86 reached the previous day, indicating profit-taking pressure in the short term [1] - Despite the short-term pullback, overall market sentiment remains defensive, supporting silver's strong operational range [1] - As holiday demand diminishes, market volatility is expected to ease, with a return to normal market rhythms anticipated next week [1] - The post-holiday arbitrage and narrowing premiums are likely to stabilize silver prices, while investors begin to take profits and institutional traders rebalance positions [1] - Ongoing safe-haven demand and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts continue to support the medium-term outlook for silver [1] Technical Analysis - The daily chart for silver shows signs of adjustment after forming a temporary top around $54.80, with short-term support at the $53.50 level, which is critical for the recent upward trend [2] - If the price breaks below this support, it may further test the $52.80 level; conversely, if it stabilizes above $54, it could challenge the $55 mark [2] - Technical indicators such as MACD are showing a bearish crossover at high levels, indicating a weakening short-term momentum, while RSI has retreated from the overbought zone to around 65, suggesting a moderate consolidation phase [2] - The silver market is currently in a high-level consolidation phase, with limited downside potential due to safe-haven demand and rate cut expectations, although post-holiday demand decline and technical pullback pressures may increase short-term volatility [2] - The overall outlook for silver in Q4 is expected to be characterized by high-level fluctuations, with a focus on the breakout of the $53 support and $55 resistance levels [2] Market Quotes - As of the latest data, spot gold is quoted around $4370 per ounce, while spot silver is at $54.31 per ounce [4] Trend Judgment - The current silver market is characterized by a price consolidation trend, suggesting strategies for support long positions and resistance short positions [7] - The dollar index is showing a fluctuating downward trend, which may influence silver pricing [7] - Technical indicators suggest that the K-line is operating near the lower boundary, with a support level at $51.30 [7] - MACD indicators are showing upward momentum, but market activity is decreasing, indicating a need for cautious trading and potential low-position long and high-position short strategies [7]

10月11日，全球加密货币市场出现剧烈抛售，主流数字资产比特币在短短数小时内跌幅逼近13%，一度跌破11万美元大关，最低触及约10.6万美元。此次跌 势是自2024年4月以来最大单日回撤，直接触发了前所未有的强制平仓潮。 | | # | Name | | Price | 1h % | 24h % | 7d % | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ಕ್ಕೆ | 1 13 | Bitcoin BTC | Buy | $113,312.61 | -0.99% | - 6.81% | ▼ 7.50% | | 53 | 2 | Ethereum ETH | Buy | $3,903.84 | - 0.45% | ▼ 10.59% | ▼13.90% | | ಕೆ | 3 | Tether USDT | Buy | $1.00 | - 0.21% | - 0.14% | - 0.14% | | ಭ | 4 5 | BNB BNB | Buy | $1,081.19 | - 9.23% | ▼13.93% | ▼8.30% | | 53 | 5 | X ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Futures market conditions during the 2025 National Day holiday varied across different sectors. Some commodities showed price increases due to factors like supply disruptions, geopolitical events, and market sentiment, while others faced downward pressure from factors such as supply - demand imbalances and macroeconomic uncertainties [2][4][9] - Different commodities have different risk levels and corresponding operation strategies based on their specific fundamentals, including factors like supply, demand, inventory, and policy expectations [4][5][6] Summary by Category Financial Futures Index Futures - **Risk Level**: ★★ - **Fundamentals**: The US government shutdown, delayed non - farm data, and changes in global political situations affected the market. Domestic holiday travel and movie consumption showed certain trends [4] - **Operation Strategy**: Focus on IF, IC, IM boosted by the 14th Five - Year Plan [4] Treasury Bonds - **Risk Level**: ★★ - **Fundamentals**: The 10 - year treasury bond rate oscillated around 1.8%, with limited capital gain space. Short - end coupon strategies were relatively stable, but there were risks of increased capital fluctuations in the fourth quarter [5] - **Operation Strategy**: Control duration, prioritize dumbbell - shaped allocation, defend at the short - end, and wait for higher odds for long - end trading [5] Precious Metals Gold - **Risk Level**: ★★ - **Fundamentals**: Delayed non - farm data, lower - than - expected ADP employment data, and the US government shutdown risk drove up the risk - aversion sentiment. There were differences in the market's expectation of the year - end interest rate cut, and the US economic data showed a downward trend [6] - **Operation Strategy**: Hold existing long positions and build new long positions on dips after the holiday [6] Silver - **Risk Level**: ★★ - **Fundamentals**: Similar to gold, and there was still room for the gold - silver ratio to repair during the interest rate cut process [7][8] - **Operation Strategy**: Hold existing long positions, and be cautious about opening new positions [8] Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **Risk Level**: ★★★ - **Fundamentals**: Supply was affected by mine accidents and domestic smelter overhauls. Terminal consumption was weak but had potential for improvement. Inventories were at a low level, and domestic policies might be strengthened [9] - **Operation Strategy**: Hold long positions on dips [9] Aluminum - **Risk Level**: ★★ - **Fundamentals**: The Fed cut interest rates as expected, and there was room for domestic LPR adjustment. Alumina supply was generally loose, while electrolytic aluminum supply was stable with limited growth. Demand entered the peak season, and inventory decreased [11] - **Operation Strategy**: Hold long positions and consider the arbitrage strategy of going long on AD and short on AL [12] Nickel - **Risk Level**: ★★ - **Fundamentals**: Indonesia adjusted the RKAB cycle, which brought uncertainty to the nickel ore supply. Nickel remained in an oversupply situation, and the downstream stainless - steel market was weak [13] - **Operation Strategy**: Observe or hold short positions moderately on rallies [13] Tin - **Risk Level**: ★★ - **Fundamentals**: Supply was tightened due to the closure of illegal tin mines in Indonesia. The semiconductor industry was recovering, and inventories were decreasing [15] - **Operation Strategy**: Hold long positions moderately on dips [14][15] Black Building Materials Steel - **Risk Level**: ★★ - **Fundamentals**: During the holiday, steel billet prices were stable, and iron ore futures rose slightly. The current situation was weak in the industry but strong in the macro - aspect, and attention should be paid to the inventory increase after the holiday [16] - **Operation Strategy**: Observe or conduct short - term trading, and pay attention to the support around 3000 for RB2601 [16] Iron Ore - **Risk Level**: ★★ - **Fundamentals**: Steel mills' profitability was at a relatively high level, and short - term negative feedback was unlikely. The key was whether steel demand could support the high iron - making water output [18] - **Operation Strategy**: Observe or conduct short - term trading [18] Glass - **Risk Level**: ★★ - **Fundamentals**: Market sentiment was boosted by news and price increases of some manufacturers. Supply was stable, demand was in the peak season, and inventories were decreasing [20] - **Operation Strategy**: Maintain the long strategy for the 01 contract, hold existing long positions, and open new long positions on dips, paying attention to the support at 1160 - 1200 [22] Coking Coal and Coke - **Risk Level**: ★★ - **Fundamentals**: Some coal mines in Shanxi had short - term production suspensions, and Mongolian coal imports were expected to increase after the holiday. The first round of coke price increase was implemented, but the second round failed [23] - **Operation Strategy**: Wait and pay attention to the new round of industrial inventory transfer after the holiday [23] Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - **Risk Level**: ★★ - **Fundamentals**: Geopolitical disturbances did not have a substantial impact on supply. The "supply increase and demand decrease" situation persisted, and prices were under pressure during the holiday [25] - **Operation Strategy**: Consider the market as weak and oscillating [25] PVC - **Risk Level**: ★ - **Fundamentals**: Cost was at a low - profit level, supply was high, and demand was affected by the real - estate market and export policies [27] - **Operation Strategy**: No specific strategy provided in the text Caustic Soda - **Risk Level**: ★ - **Fundamentals**: Focus on post - holiday inventory accumulation. Supply was affected by upstream inventory and liquid chlorine, and demand was increasing marginally [28] - **Operation Strategy**: Consider the market as oscillating, and pay attention to the range of 2450 - 2650 for the 01 contract [28] Urea - **Risk Level**: ★★ - **Fundamentals**: Supply increased, agricultural demand was scattered, and inventory was accumulating. The supply - demand pattern of compound fertilizers improved slightly [31] - **Operation Strategy**: Observe the support at 1600 - 1630 for the 01 contract and the positive arbitrage opportunity after the 1 - 5 spread weakens further [31] Methanol - **Risk Level**: ★★ - **Fundamentals**: Supply increased, the demand of the main downstream (methanol - to - olefins) was strong, and inventories were decreasing [33] - **Operation Strategy**: Conduct range trading, and pay attention to the range of 2330 - 2450 for the 01 contract [33] Soda Ash - **Risk Level**: ★ - **Fundamentals**: Supply was abundant, downstream demand was weak, and upstream faced inventory accumulation pressure after the holiday [35] - **Operation Strategy**: Without policy support, the market may weaken PTA - **Risk Level**: ★★★ - **Fundamentals**: The market changed little during the holiday. After - holiday maintenance of some devices and slow recovery of downstream weaving affected the inventory situation. Cost - end oil prices declined [36] - **Operation Strategy**: The price may oscillate between 4500 - 4800, and producers should conduct hedging on rallies in the fourth quarter [36] Agricultural Products Cotton and Cotton Yarn - **Risk Level**: ★★ - **Fundamentals**: Cotton purchase prices were stable during the holiday. Due to the US government shutdown, US cotton data was suspended, and price fluctuations were small [39] - **Operation Strategy**: Conduct selling hedging on rallies [39] Live Pigs - **Risk Level**: ★★ - **Fundamentals**: Pig prices declined during the holiday due to oversupply. In the long - term, supply will increase before May next year, and prices will be under pressure [40] - **Operation Strategy**: The futures market is expected to open lower. Adopt a long - term short - selling strategy for 11, 01, 03, 05 contracts, be cautious about bottom - fishing for 07, 09 contracts, and pay attention to the arbitrage of going long on 05 and short on 03 [41] Corn - **Risk Level**: ★ - **Fundamentals**: New - season corn prices declined due to concerns about quality and increased supply. Demand was weak in the short - term but had potential for recovery in the long - term [43] - **Operation Strategy**: Adopt a short - selling strategy on the futures market, and wait for rallies to enter short positions [43] Eggs - **Risk Level**: ★★★ - **Fundamentals**: Egg prices were weak during the holiday. Supply growth slowed down, but there was still pressure. There was replenishment demand after the holiday, but prices were under pressure in the long - term [45] - **Operation Strategy**: Hold short positions for the 11 - month contract. Be cautious about short - selling the 12 and 01 contracts, and wait for rallies to enter short positions [46] Meal - **Risk Level**: ★★ - **Fundamentals**: CBOT soybeans rose slightly during the holiday. Domestic soybean supply was expected to be loose in the fourth quarter, and soybean meal inventory was increasing. Prices were expected to rise slightly in November [48] - **Operation Strategy**: Hold long positions on dips and reduce positions on rallies for M2601, and pay attention to the support at 2900 - 2930 [48] Oils - **Risk Level**: ★★★ - **Fundamentals**: Palm oil and soybean oil prices rose slightly during the holiday. Malaysian palm oil exports were strong, and there was a possibility of inventory reduction. Domestic oil inventories were high in the short - term [50] - **Operation Strategy**: Adopt a long - buying strategy on dips for 01 contracts of palm, soybean, and rapeseed oils, and pay attention to the positive arbitrage of the rapeseed - soybean oil price spread [50]

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market saw all three major indices rise, with technology stocks leading the gains, particularly driven by strong performances from Nvidia and Microsoft [1] - The market sentiment was boosted by expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut and news of some corporate mergers [1] - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index experienced significant gains, with popular Chinese concept stocks like Luokung, Xunlei, Alibaba, and New Oriental all rising [1] Group 2 - The derivatives market is heavily betting on a nearly 90% probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in October [1] - However, risks such as a potential U.S. government shutdown and delays in the release of key economic data may increase short-term market volatility [1]

【导读】现货黄金突破3840美元再创历史新高 中国基金报记者 李智 现货黄金再创新高！ 现货黄金再创新高 9月30日早盘，现货黄金再创新高，一度升破3840美元/盎司。 | ( W | 伦敦金现 | | | | | O | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | SPTAUUSDOZ.IDC | | | | | | | 3839.120 | 昨信 3832.935 | | | 总量 | | 0 | | +6.185 | 3832.662 +0.16% 开盘 | | | 现于 | | 0 | | 最高价 | 3840.589 持 ਦੇ 0 | | | 外 盘 | | 0 | | 最低价 | 3825.370 増 色 0 | | | 内 盘 | | 0 | | 分时 | 五日 日K 周Ｋ | | | 月K | 电子 | (0) | | 叠加 | | | | 均价:0.000 | | | | 3840.589 | | | | 0.20% | | | | | | | | | -- 3839.470 | | | | | | | | 动- 3839.120 | | ...