Group 1 - The tourism market is experiencing a strong recovery, with inbound tourism showing particularly robust growth, as evidenced by flight execution and travel orders. In 2024, domestic travel has rebounded to 56.1% of historical trends, while inbound tourism has reached 81.9% of historical trends, with travel exports recovering to 138% of 2019 levels [2][10][83] - From the perspective of visitor demographics, tourists from Southeast Asia are showing significant recovery in inbound tourism, while recovery from regions like North America is slower. In 2024, the proportion of visitors to Shanghai from Southeast Asia is 22.5%, up 6.8 percentage points from 2023, while the proportion from North America has decreased by 2 percentage points [2][17][83] - The recovery pace of China's inbound tourism market is accelerating after 2024, indicating that the tourism market's recovery is not solely dependent on scale expansion. By April 2025, inbound tourist numbers in Shanghai reached 115.3% of the 2019 average, surpassing countries like Thailand and Singapore [3][23][83] Group 2 - The increase in inbound tourism is driven by the facilitation of visa policies and cultural exports, which effectively stimulate inbound demand. Since 2024, the expansion of visa-free policies has significantly boosted inbound tourism, with 20.12 million foreign visitors entering through visa exemptions, a year-on-year increase of 112.3% [4][26][84] - Historical examples show that optimizing visa policies can effectively release inbound tourism demand. For instance, Japan's gradual relaxation of visa policies from 2013 led to a substantial increase in inbound visitors, from 8.358 million in 2012 to 31.882 million in 2019 [4][34][84] Group 3 - The potential for growth in inbound tourism is significant, as the current export of travel and entertainment services as a percentage of GDP is notably lower than that of other countries, primarily due to the low openness of the service sector. In 2024, travel exports are projected to account for only 0.1% of GDP, compared to a global average of 1.6% [6][50][61] - The Chinese government is increasing its focus on the opening of the service sector, which is expected to release substantial demand for inbound tourism. Policies aimed at enhancing service sector openness have been introduced, including a comprehensive pilot program to accelerate the opening of the service industry [7][66][61]

Group 1 - The tourism market is experiencing a strong recovery, with inbound tourism showing particularly robust growth, as evidenced by flight execution and travel orders. In 2024, domestic travel has rebounded to 56.1% of historical trends, while inbound tourism has reached 81.9% of historical trends, with travel exports recovering to 138% of 2019 levels [2][10][83] - From the perspective of visitor demographics, tourists from Southeast Asia are showing significant recovery in inbound tourism, while recovery from regions like North America is slower. In 2024, the proportion of tourists from Southeast Asia in Shanghai increased to 22.5%, up 6.8 percentage points from 2023, while the proportion from North America decreased by 2 percentage points [2][17][83] - The recovery pace of China's inbound tourism market is accelerating after 2024, indicating that the tourism market's recovery is not solely dependent on scale expansion. By April 2025, inbound tourist numbers in Shanghai reached 115.3% of the 2019 average, surpassing countries like Thailand and Singapore [3][23][83] Group 2 - The increase in inbound tourism is attributed to the facilitation of visa policies and cultural exports, which effectively stimulate inbound demand. In 2024, the number of foreign visitors entering China through visa exemptions reached 20.12 million, a year-on-year increase of 112.3% [4][26][84] - Historical examples show that optimizing visa policies can significantly release inbound tourism demand. For instance, Japan's gradual relaxation of visa policies from 2013 led to a substantial increase in inbound visitors, from 8.358 million in 2012 to 31.882 million in 2019 [4][34][84] Group 3 - The current low export share of travel and entertainment services in China's GDP indicates significant potential for growth, as the service sector has been relatively closed off. In 2024, travel exports accounted for only 0.1% of GDP, compared to a global average of 1.6% [6][50][61] - The Chinese government is increasing its focus on opening up the service sector, which is expected to release substantial demand for inbound tourism. Recent policies emphasize the importance of service sector openness, which could lead to sustained growth in inbound tourism over the next decade [6][61][66]

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Core Viewpoint - The leading indicators suggest that "export rush" may continue into May, with April exports showing a year-on-year increase of 8.1%, significantly influenced by the end of the Spring Festival distortion [2][3][11]. Export Analysis - The decline in April exports is primarily due to the fading impact of the Spring Festival distortion, with a calculated drag of 6.7 percentage points on the export growth rate [3][11]. - The strong performance in April exports is attributed to "export rush," including re-exports through emerging economies and transit through Mexico, with improvements in the data chain from production to shipping [3][19]. - Exports to ASEAN and South Korea saw significant increases, with growth rates of 21.0% and -0.1% respectively, indicating a recovery in trade relationships [3][19]. Resilience in Exports to the U.S. - Exports to the U.S. showed relative resilience, with a decline of only 20.9%, which is significantly less than the 145% tariff increase, indicating the difficulty of replacing Chinese manufacturing [4][30]. - The strong performance in intermediate and capital goods, such as ships and steel, reflects the trend of exporting production materials to emerging countries for processing and subsequent re-export to the U.S. [4][34]. Future Outlook - Leading indicators suggest that the "export rush" effect may persist into May, but uncertainties loom for June exports due to the 90-day tariff suspension on emerging economies and the one-month shipping delay [5][71]. - The processing trade imports, which are a leading indicator for export trends, showed a year-on-year increase of 5.0%, indicating continued export activity in May [5][71]. Regular Tracking - April exports showed a decline in consumer goods, with notable decreases in electronics and textiles, while capital goods like ships saw significant growth [6][42]. - Import growth in April was driven by a recovery in bulk commodity imports, with copper and iron ore showing increases of 22.0% and 8.0% respectively, reflecting a rebound in domestic investment demand [7][73].