证券研究报告 固收定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 11 月 20 日 ——2025 年 10 月经济数据点评 投资要点： 证券分析师 廖志明 SAC：S1350524100002 liaozhiming@huayuanstock.com 马赫 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 联系人 mahe@huayuanstock.com "三驾马车"承压，主要经济指标走弱 核心观点：从 10 月数据上看，支撑 GDP 的"三驾马车"消费、投资和净出口压力 增大，短期经济增长或面临一定的挑战，考虑到今年前三季度经济表现较好，完成 25 年总量+5%的经济增长目标压力不大。10 月社零同比+2.9%，增速连续五个月回 落。10 月进出口总值同比较上月大幅下滑，出口同比-0.8%，较上月-9.2pct，对欧 盟出口较上月大幅下降 13.3pct。1-10 月固投完成额负增长（yoy-1.7%）、基建（不 含电力、热力、燃气及水生产和供应业，下同）累计同比亦负增长（yoy-0.1%）与 房地产开发投资持续探底（yoy-14.7%）凸显传统增长模式乏力。未来半年政策利 率下调与增量工具落地或成关键支撑 ...

Core Insights - The consumer market in October showed stable growth, with a notable increase in service consumption and a positive trend in sales of essential and some upgraded goods [1] Group 1: Service Retail Growth - Service retail sales accelerated, with a year-on-year growth of 5.3% from January to October, outpacing the growth of goods retail sales by 0.9 percentage points [2] - The National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays led to increased spending in dining, accommodation, and transportation, with dining revenue growing by 3.8% in October [2] Group 2: Consumer Goods Market Performance - The total retail sales of consumer goods exceeded 40 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.3% from January to October, which is 0.8 percentage points higher than the previous year [3] - Sales in rural areas outpaced urban markets, with rural retail sales growing by 4.6% compared to urban areas [3] Group 3: Sales of Essential and Upgraded Goods - Over 70% of retail categories in large-scale units saw growth in October, with essential goods sales showing strong performance [4] - Notable growth in upgraded goods, such as communication devices and cultural office supplies, with year-on-year increases of 23.2% and 13.5% respectively [4] Group 4: E-commerce and New Retail Formats - Online retail sales grew by 9.6% from January to October, with physical goods online sales increasing by 6.3% [5] - New retail formats, including membership warehouses and unmanned stores, continued to thrive, with traditional retail adapting through supply chain optimization [5] Group 5: Future Outlook - The overall operation of the consumer market remains stable, with plans to implement policies to boost consumption and innovate new consumption scenarios [6]

Core Viewpoint - Tencent Music is focusing on profitability over user growth, as evidenced by its financial performance in Q3, which shows significant revenue and profit growth despite a decline in active users [1][2]. Financial Performance - Tencent Music's revenue in Q3 increased by 20.6% year-on-year to 8.46 billion yuan, while adjusted net profit rose by 32.6% to 2.405 billion yuan [1]. - Online music revenue grew by 27.2% to 6.97 billion yuan, accounting for 82.3% of total revenue, an increase of 4.2 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - Subscription revenue from Tencent Music's members increased by 17.2% to 4.5 billion yuan, with the number of paying users growing by 5.6% to 126 million [1]. User Engagement - The monthly active users (MAU) for Tencent Music's online music platform decreased by 4.3% year-on-year to 551 million [1]. - The growth rate of paying users has slowed, with a 6.3% increase in Q2 compared to previous periods [1]. Non-Subscription Revenue Growth - Tencent Music's non-subscription revenue grew by over 50% year-on-year to 2.47 billion yuan in Q3 [2]. - The company achieved significant growth in offline performances, hosting 14 sold-out shows for G-DRAGON across six cities, attracting over 150,000 attendees [2]. Strategic Initiatives - Tencent Music plans to expand its performance business and introduce more headliner events to enhance user engagement and drive SVIP subscription growth [2]. - The company is also expanding its artist roster by introducing 15 new Chinese label artists to attract a broader audience [2].

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that 巨星传奇 plans to issue up to 75 million shares at a price of HKD 7.2 per share, with the proceeds primarily aimed at enhancing its entertainment business through concerts and exhibitions [1] - Approximately 67.70% of the net proceeds will be allocated to hosting international concerts and exhibitions, indicating a strong focus on expanding the offline entertainment sector [1] - The company aims to create unique star IPs and related content, with 16.25% of the funds designated for this purpose, reflecting its ambition to strengthen brand influence through international artist collaborations [1] Group 2 - 瑞幸咖啡 has stated that there is no confirmed timeline for its return to the US main board, emphasizing its focus on business strategy and development rather than rushing to list [2] - The company has experienced a strong recovery through store expansion and product innovation following past financial scandals, indicating its commitment to rebuilding brand trust and seeking international market recognition [2] - 瑞幸咖啡's leadership has expressed that the priority remains on business growth, showcasing a more prudent approach to balancing capital and operations [2] Group 3 - 三元股份 clarified that its seasonal product,奶皮子糖葫芦, has a limited sales period and contributes minimally to overall revenue, addressing potential market misinterpretations [3] - The incident highlights the dual nature of the "hit product effect" in the social media era, where market excitement can lead to misreadings of a company's performance [3] - The company's timely clarification serves to stabilize market expectations and encourages investors to maintain a rational perspective on short-term consumer trends [3] Group 4 - The introduction of the first autumn holiday has led to a surge in travel demand, with average domestic flight prices rising by approximately 7% compared to last year [4] - Popular routes during the autumn holiday, such as 成都—三亚 and 杭州—厦门, have seen some flights sold out, indicating a strong consumer response to the new holiday [4] - The autumn holiday not only meets family travel needs but also creates a new peak in tourism outside of traditional holiday periods, demonstrating the positive impact of policy changes on the travel industry [4]

Group 1 - Luckin Coffee is actively working towards relisting on the US main board, which is seen as a significant event with international influence [1][7] - The company has not set a specific timeline for the relisting, focusing instead on executing its business strategy and development [2] - Luckin Coffee's past included a successful IPO on NASDAQ in May 2019, followed by a financial scandal that led to its delisting in June 2020 [3][4] Group 2 - The company has undergone significant changes, including a complete exit of the original shareholders and management team, and the establishment of a new management team under Dazhong Capital [5] - Luckin Coffee reported a revenue increase of 47.1% year-on-year to 12.36 billion yuan and a net profit increase of 43.6% to 1.25 billion yuan in the second quarter [5][6] - The total number of Luckin Coffee stores reached 26,206, with ongoing expansion into overseas markets [5] Group 3 - The company's performance indicates that a relisting on the main board would attract market interest [6] - Luckin Coffee's association with Xiamen highlights its confidence in returning to the US main board [7]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that Giant Star Legend announced the establishment of a joint venture, Yuxing Entertainment Technology Co., Ltd., in collaboration with Beijing Lingyi Technology Co., Ltd. [1] - The joint venture will focus on the development, operation, promotion, and sales of consumer-level IP robots and related derivative products, with both parties holding 50% equity in the new company [1]. Group 2 - Following the announcement, Giant Star Legend's stock price surged over 20% after experiencing a decline for six consecutive trading days [2].

Core Viewpoint - The company announced the establishment of a joint venture, Yuxing Entertainment Technology Co., Ltd., in collaboration with Beijing Lingyi Technology Co., Ltd., focusing on consumer-level IP robots and related derivative products [2] Group 1 - The joint venture agreement was signed on November 11, involving the company's wholly-owned subsidiary, Xing Chuang Yi (Kunshan) Cultural Entertainment Co., Ltd., and Lingyi Technology's wholly-owned subsidiary [2] - Both parties will hold a 50% equity stake in the joint venture, indicating a balanced partnership [2] - The primary responsibilities of the joint venture will include the creation, development, operation, promotion, and sales of consumer-level IP robots and derivative products [2]

Group 1 - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.2% year-on-year and month-on-month in October, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 2.1% year-on-year but increased by 0.1% month-on-month, indicating a recovery in the macroeconomic environment [1] - The improvement in CPI and PPI is attributed to effective domestic demand policies and positive changes in supply-demand relationships in certain industries, highlighting the role of policy, structure, and expectations in driving price recovery [1][2] - The rise in CPI reflects a recovery in the consumption market, significantly influenced by the holiday economy during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival, which boosted service consumption in travel, accommodation, and tourism [1][2] Group 2 - The core CPI has expanded for six consecutive months, indicating a steady increase in demand for healthcare, home services, and entertainment, reflecting a shift in consumer preferences towards experiential and high-quality products [2] - The positive change in PPI signals a stabilization in the industrial economy, with the month-on-month increase in PPI suggesting a gradual recovery in industrial production demand, which supports CPI stability and enhances corporate production willingness and profitability [2] - The collaborative recovery between upstream and downstream industries strengthens the endogenous growth momentum of the economy, laying a solid foundation for sustained economic improvement [2]

Group 1: Starbucks and Strategic Partnerships - Starbucks has announced a strategic partnership with Boyu Capital to establish a joint venture for its retail operations in China, with Boyu holding up to 60% equity and Starbucks retaining 40% [1][20] - The joint venture is based on an enterprise value of approximately $4 billion, and Starbucks expects its retail business in China to exceed $13 billion [1][20] - The new joint venture will be headquartered in Shanghai and aims to expand the number of Starbucks stores in China from 8,000 to 20,000 [1][20] Group 2: Market Trends and Performance - The trend of international restaurant brands, including Starbucks and Pizza Hut, focusing on lower-tier cities is becoming increasingly significant due to better revenue prospects in these markets [3] - Starbucks has reported that new stores opened in the last two years have contributed to same-store sales growth above average, with many of these new locations in lower-tier markets [3] - Yum China reported a 4% year-over-year revenue growth to $3.2 billion in Q3 2025, with KFC and Pizza Hut also showing positive revenue trends [3] Group 3: Consumer Behavior and Pricing - There is a noted decline in average transaction value for Starbucks, Pizza Hut, and KFC, which may benefit their expansion into lower-tier markets [5] - The overall dining market in major cities like Beijing and Shanghai is contracting, prompting brands to seek growth in less saturated markets [4]

Group 1 - Adidas has shown a strong performance in Q3 2025, with global revenue increasing by 12% year-on-year to €6.6 billion (approximately ¥546.41 billion) excluding Yeezy factors, and operating profit rising by 23% to €736 million (approximately ¥60.93 billion) [1] - The Greater China region has been a key driver for Adidas, with revenue in Q3 2025 growing by 10% year-on-year to €947 million (approximately ¥78.40 billion) [1] - For the first three quarters of 2025, Adidas reported global revenue of €18.735 billion (approximately ¥155.11 billion), a 14% increase year-on-year, with Greater China revenue at €2.774 billion (approximately ¥229.66 billion), up 12% [1] Group 2 - Despite the growth, Adidas faces challenges as its revenue growth rate in Q3 was lower than in the first three quarters, indicating ongoing growth pressures in China [2] - Competitors like Anta and Li Ning have reported mixed results, with Anta showing low single-digit growth and Li Ning experiencing a decline in sales [2] - Nike's revenue in Greater China has also declined by 10%, highlighting the competitive landscape [2] Group 3 - Adidas's market share in China has dropped significantly from 15% in 2021 to 8.7% in 2024, while Nike's market share decreased from 18.1% to 16.2%, maintaining its leading position [3] - Anta's market share increased from 9.8% to 10.5%, ranking second, while Li Ning's market share slightly rose from 9.3% to 9.4% [3] - In 2024, Adidas ranked fourth in market share in China, trailing Li Ning by 0.7 percentage points [4] Group 4 - Given Li Ning's sales decline, there is a possibility that Adidas could surpass Li Ning in market position in China [5] - However, Adidas still has a long way to go in terms of self-positioning compared to its competitors [6]