[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 7 Jan 2026 MP Materials (MP US) 稀土市场基本面向好；更多利好因素和战略合作伙伴关系有望出现 李丹怡 Catherine Li catherine.dy.li@htisec.com [Table_yemei1] 热点速评 Flash Analysis [Table_summary] (This note is the Chinese translation of a note that was originally written in English and published on 7 Jan 2026) 事件 美战争部会计处理的清晰性：公司对其美战争部交易的会计处理方式十分明确，根据美国通用会计准则，该协议不 属于营收范围（第三方为五角大楼），并将出现营业利润低于营业收入的情况。该协议将包含一笔额外的钕镨付款 部分（即销售价格与 110 美元/千克之间的差额），并且根据用于回收氧化钕镨的分配量的不同，还会从钕镨精矿支 付款项至库存。 自十月中旬以来，MP Material 的股价表现弱于大市约 35%，部 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the non-ferrous metals industry, particularly focusing on copper and aluminum markets, as well as the rare earth sector. [1][2][3] Key Points and Arguments Monetary Policy Impact - The Federal Reserve's dovish signals have increased expectations for interest rate cuts, which are anticipated to benefit industrial metals like copper and aluminum due to a potential weakening of the dollar and increased economic growth. [2][9] - The expected interest rate cut in September is projected to significantly impact the prices of copper and aluminum, enhancing demand for these metals. [2][11] Rare Earth Market Developments - A new regulatory framework for rare earth management has been introduced, shifting from two major smelting groups to designated enterprises, which is expected to tighten supply and drive up prices for rare earth elements like neodymium and praseodymium. [3][4] - The price of neodymium and praseodymium has surged past 600,000 yuan per ton, supported by seasonal demand and recovering export orders. [4] Aluminum Market Dynamics - The aluminum market has shown signs of a fundamental reversal, with LME and COMEX inventories at historical lows, indicating a tightening supply situation. [6][8] - Domestic electrolytic aluminum inventories have also decreased, and downstream operating rates are recovering, suggesting an improving supply-demand structure. [6] - Long-term projections indicate a decline in global aluminum supply growth due to project delays in Indonesia and production cuts in Africa, while demand from power and infrastructure sectors is expected to rise. [6][8] Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include: 1. **China Nonferrous Mining**: Expected to double its self-owned mineral output in five years, with a projected profit of 4 billion yuan this year. Current market cap is 29.9 billion yuan, with a potential 50% upside if valuations align with peers. [5] 2. **Jiangxi Copper H Shares**: Valued at 8 times earnings, with a potential 50% upside. Benefits from a 19% stake in First Quantum, which is expected to enhance copper production. [5] 3. **Nangang Steel**: Projected annual profit exceeding 2.9 billion yuan, with a stable dividend yield of 5%. [5] Seasonal Trends in Construction and Aluminum Demand - The construction industry is expected to experience a seasonal rebound from summer lows to stable autumn activity, which will positively impact aluminum demand. [8] - The upcoming months (September to October) are anticipated to see increased operating rates and significant price volatility in aluminum due to low inventory levels. [8] Risks to Consider - Potential risks include the possibility of rising commodity prices leading to inflation exceeding expectations, which could alter future interest rate cut projections. [13] Additional Important Insights - The overall market valuation is currently low at around 8 times earnings, suggesting potential for growth in dividend-paying stocks with defensive characteristics. [7] - The copper market is expected to benefit from macroeconomic improvements, with supply tightening and demand shifting towards a seasonal peak. [12]

Core Insights - Rare earth elements play a critical role in the global economy and security, driving the clean energy revolution, advancements in artificial intelligence and automation, and increasing national defense needs [1][5][30] - China dominates the rare earth industry not only in mining but also in refining and processing capabilities, controlling the majority of global rare earth processing facilities [1][12][30] - The RockFlow research team identifies MP Materials as the most active rare earth mining company in the U.S., benefiting from government support and significant growth potential [1][20][30] Group 1: Importance of Rare Earth Elements - Rare earth elements, despite their name, are not rare in geological terms but are crucial for modern technology and defense applications [3][5] - They are essential in three key areas: clean energy technologies, robotics and AI, and military applications [5][6][7] - The extraction and processing of rare earths are capital-intensive and environmentally sensitive, leading to a global supply bottleneck [11][12] Group 2: U.S. Supply Chain Challenges - The U.S. has become increasingly aware of its dependence on China for rare earth supplies, prompting efforts to diversify supply chains [15][20] - MP Materials has emerged as a key player in this context, with significant government investment and strategic partnerships [17][24][27] - The U.S. Department of Defense's investment in MP Materials highlights the strategic importance of securing domestic rare earth supply chains [20][24] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - MP Materials is positioned as a leading rare earth producer in North America, with a fully integrated supply chain and government backing [21][27] - Other companies like USA Rare Earth and Ucore Rare Metals are also seen as potential high-growth opportunities in the rare earth sector [25][28][29] - The REMX ETF offers a diversified investment approach in the rare earth and strategic metals space, appealing to investors looking for exposure to this critical industry [26][30]