在刚刚过去不久的周五交易日，市场经历了一场足以载入史册的剧烈波动。 从股票的突然滑坡，到美元的猛烈反弹，再到前美联储"超级鹰派"凯文·沃什（Kevin Warsh）可能取代鲍威尔的重磅传闻，这一系列事件最终引发了黄金、白 银创纪录的单日暴跌。 面对市场在周五上演了过山车般的行情，美国银行首席投资策略师Michael Hartnett重申："货币贬值是基本情境（Debasement is Da Base Case）"。 对于投资者而言，这意味着尽管短期波动剧烈，但 驱动黄金和实物资产上涨的宏观逻辑依然牢固。除非发生比当前宏观叙事更具破坏力的"更大事件"，否则这 场由货币贬值驱动的牛市难以轻易终结。 然而，投资者必须警惕上半年可能出现的流动性去杠杆风险，这将是对"贪婪"情绪的一次剧烈清洗。 高盛交易部门负责人Mark Wilson也表示，尽管市场近期出现剧烈波动，但 投资者不应过度解读这场"持仓清洗"，因为年初至今推动市场的核心驱动因素—— 美元走势延续、AI投资热情不减、美国经济增长势头强劲以及地缘政治重塑等关键变量均未改变。 弱势美元与"铁锈地带"的政治经济学 尽管周五美元汇率出现了反弹，但Hartnett指 ...

Core Viewpoint - Investment is a competitive game where only a few can truly profit, and most participants are at a disadvantage compared to the most skilled and resourceful investors [2][3][4]. Group 1: Asset Allocation Strategy - Personal investors can achieve success through an all-weather asset allocation strategy proposed by Ray Dalio, which allows for profit across various market conditions despite volatility [5][6]. - Different asset classes respond differently to economic growth and inflation, with stocks and commodities performing well in certain conditions, while bonds and gold excel in others [6][8]. - The correlation between different asset classes is low, which supports the concept of "anti-fragility" in investment, allowing for diversification to mitigate risks [9]. Group 2: Importance of Reducing Volatility - The concept of reducing volatility through diversified asset allocation is crucial, as relying on a single asset class can lead to significant losses during market downturns [10][11]. - Historical performance shows that maintaining a diversified portfolio can smooth out returns and provide more consistent performance over time [12]. Group 3: All-Weather Portfolio Implementation - A recommended all-weather portfolio consists of 20% stocks, 15% gold, 15% commodities, and 50% long-term bonds, aiming for an annualized return of around 10% with lower volatility [13]. - Historical data from 2005 to 2025 illustrates the performance of this all-weather portfolio compared to individual asset classes, highlighting its resilience during market fluctuations [14]. Group 4: Conclusion - The key to successful investing lies in acknowledging one's limitations and leveraging systematic strategies to outperform the majority of professional investors [15].

Core Viewpoint - Investment is a competitive game that only a few can profit from, and most participants are at a disadvantage compared to the most skilled and resourceful investors [3][4][5]. Group 1: Asset Allocation Strategy - Personal investors can achieve a favorable position through an all-weather asset allocation strategy proposed by Ray Dalio, which allows for profit across various market conditions [6][7]. - Each asset class can generate returns over the long term, but significant volatility and drawdowns can hinder many investors from realizing these gains [7]. - The correlation between different asset classes is low, which supports the concept of "anti-fragility" in investment [10][12]. Group 2: Importance of Reducing Volatility - The concepts of anti-fragility, asset allocation, and diversification are not original to Dalio but have been developed by various investment masters [12]. - The two key principles of asset allocation are to invest in long-term appreciating risk assets and to buy uncorrelated assets to reduce volatility [12]. - Maintaining a diversified portfolio is crucial as it helps smooth out returns and allows for flexibility in capital allocation [14][15]. Group 3: All-Weather Portfolio Practice - A proposed all-weather portfolio consists of 20% stocks, 15% gold, 15% commodities, and 50% long-term bonds, aiming for an annualized return of 10% [16]. - Historical performance data shows that even during market downturns, such as the 2008 financial crisis, the all-weather portfolio experienced significantly lower losses compared to individual asset classes [17]. Group 4: Conclusion - The all-weather strategy provides a robust investment framework for ordinary investors, enabling them to outperform many professional investors through a systematic approach [19][20].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the "Permanent Portfolio" investment strategy proposed by Harry Browne, emphasizing its stability and lower risk compared to traditional stock investments, while achieving a respectable return over the past decade [1][6]. Investment Strategy Summary - The investment strategy involves a 25% allocation to four asset classes: stocks, bonds, gold, and cash, using specific ETFs for each category [2]. - The backtest results over nearly ten years show a total return of 102%, with an annualized return of 7.33% and a maximum drawdown of 11.09%, indicating a stable performance [3][4]. Performance Comparison - The performance of the Permanent Portfolio is compared to the CSI 300 index, showing a smoother return curve and lower volatility [3]. - The maximum drawdown of the selected stock ETF (Boshi S&P 500) is 31.17%, significantly higher than the Permanent Portfolio's maximum drawdown of 11.09%, highlighting the risk management aspect of the strategy [5]. Investment Philosophy - The article emphasizes that most wealth is accumulated through one's profession rather than through high-risk investments, advocating for a cautious approach to investing [6][7]. - It warns against the dangers of significant losses that can erase years of hard work, suggesting that a stable and gradual increase in wealth is preferable to high-risk strategies [7]. Adaptation of the Strategy - The Permanent Portfolio concept is presented as a flexible framework that can be tailored to individual circumstances, encouraging investors to optimize asset selection and allocation based on their specific needs [7].