文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 今天大盘整体上涨，截止到收盘，还在4.1星。 距离4.0星也不远了。 大中小盘股都上涨。大中盘股上涨略多一些。 螺丝钉也汇总了红利类品种的估值，供参考，见文章下方图片。 成长风格上涨多一些。 科创50、创业板领涨。 价值风格今天也上涨。 自由现金流、港股红利等上涨。 港股今天下跌。 港股科技、港股医药等指数波动比较大。 港股指数，假期里也出现了波动。 今天港股类基金会把假期里的波动+9日当天的波动一起更新。 所以含有港股的一些基金，今天会低迷一些。组合里也含有港股，也会受影响。不过今年以来港股整体涨幅还是比A股多不少。 港股最近也回到了3.5-3.6星上下。 随着上涨，低估的股票基金数量也逐渐减少。 也有朋友问，不同星级该买什么基金品种呢？ 1. 5星级 是股票基金投资价值最高的阶段。 例如主动优选、指数增强，在5点几星，投资价值是最高的。 当然，也是投资者对股票基金最缺少信心的阶段。 在5点几星，不管是定投还是加仓，都需要勇气。 2. 4星级 在4点几星，随着上涨，一些股票基金逐渐回到正常估值。 低估品种也逐渐减少。 每一轮从熊市底部上涨，领涨的品种会有区别。 例如2 ...

↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 作者： 极简投资人 来源：雪球 一 、 我们都是投资中的傻瓜 投资是一个全世界的人都不得不参与的比赛 ， 但是这个比赛很残酷 ， 只有极少的人能够实实在在赚到钱 。 有一句话比较有意思 ， 如果你在牌桌上玩了一会 ， 没有看出来谁是傻瓜 ， 那么你就是那个傻瓜 。 对于大多数人而言 ， 我们都是傻瓜 。 如果你通过预测市场涨跌来进行投资 ， 那你就是在和世界范围内最聪明 、 最有耐心 、 资金最雄厚的人来对弈 ， 他们无论为在能力 ， 经验 ， 资源 ， 精力方面完全碾压你 ， 想从他们手中赚绝对收益或者超过收益是不可能的事情 。 想要投资赚钱 ， 必须要承认自己的弱小 ， 才能有所敬畏 ， 有所不为 。 二 、 能立于不败之地的资产配置方案 那么 ， 对于个人投资者 ， 想玩这个游戏还能立于不败之地吗 ， 达利欧给出的答案是可以 ， 就是全天候配置 。 每类资产长期看都是能挣到钱的 ， 但是中间的波动和回撤太大 ， 以至于让很多人拿不住 ， 赚不到钱 。 每种资产虽然波动大 ， 但是都会适应 某种市场环境 。 | | 增长 | 通胀 | | --- | --- | --- ...

Core Viewpoint - Investment is a competitive game that only a few can profit from, and most participants are at a disadvantage compared to the most skilled and resourceful investors [3][4][5]. Group 1: Asset Allocation Strategy - Personal investors can achieve a favorable position through an all-weather asset allocation strategy proposed by Ray Dalio, which allows for profit across various market conditions [6][7]. - Each asset class can generate returns over the long term, but significant volatility and drawdowns can hinder many investors from realizing these gains [7]. - The correlation between different asset classes is low, which supports the concept of "anti-fragility" in investment [10][12]. Group 2: Importance of Reducing Volatility - The concepts of anti-fragility, asset allocation, and diversification are not original to Dalio but have been developed by various investment masters [12]. - The two key principles of asset allocation are to invest in long-term appreciating risk assets and to buy uncorrelated assets to reduce volatility [12]. - Maintaining a diversified portfolio is crucial as it helps smooth out returns and allows for flexibility in capital allocation [14][15]. Group 3: All-Weather Portfolio Practice - A proposed all-weather portfolio consists of 20% stocks, 15% gold, 15% commodities, and 50% long-term bonds, aiming for an annualized return of 10% [16]. - Historical performance data shows that even during market downturns, such as the 2008 financial crisis, the all-weather portfolio experienced significantly lower losses compared to individual asset classes [17]. Group 4: Conclusion - The all-weather strategy provides a robust investment framework for ordinary investors, enabling them to outperform many professional investors through a systematic approach [19][20].

Group 1 - The core idea of the article revolves around Ray Dalio's Bridgewater Associates and its unique strategies that allowed it to thrive during financial crises, particularly the 2008 financial crisis, where it achieved a 14% return while the market plummeted [2][3] - Dalio's "economic machine" framework identifies three core drivers of the economy: productivity growth, short-term debt cycles (5-8 years), and long-term debt cycles (75-100 years), emphasizing the importance of understanding these cycles to anticipate market movements [3][4] - The concept of "radical transparency" at Bridgewater, where all meetings are recorded and employees can challenge executives, fosters a culture of open communication and accountability, which is crucial for decision-making [4][5] Group 2 - The "All Weather Portfolio" strategy, which allocates 30% to stocks, 40% to long-term bonds, 15% to intermediate bonds, and 15% to commodities and gold, is designed to perform well in various market conditions, demonstrating the importance of diversification [5][6] - Dalio's historical perspective, where he studies past economic crises to inform current decisions, allows Bridgewater to avoid pitfalls that others may fall into, as seen in their early withdrawal from the Turkish lira crisis in 2018 [7][8] - The article emphasizes that the true value lies not in the wealth accumulated but in the replicable systems established by Dalio, which enable ordinary individuals to make extraordinary decisions [8][9]

Group 1 - The article discusses the increasing uncertainty in global economic policies and the challenges investors face in wealth growth, particularly in the context of low interest rates in China and high volatility in equity assets [1][4] - It introduces two classic asset allocation models: the Permanent Portfolio and the All Weather Portfolio, which aim to create low-volatility investment strategies that can withstand economic cycles [1][4] - Historical data from 1971 to 2024 shows that both models have achieved annualized returns of 8-9% in the US market, with the Permanent Portfolio yielding 8.4% and the All Weather Portfolio yielding 8.7% [10][11] Group 2 - The long-term effectiveness of these models is attributed to three main reasons: economic growth and monetary expansion leading to positive returns on underlying assets, low correlation among assets reducing portfolio volatility, and diversification and rebalancing enhancing compound returns [2][19] - The article emphasizes that the long-term returns of various asset classes are generally positive, with equities outperforming other assets, which is crucial for the portfolio's ability to exceed nominal GDP growth [2][20][22] Group 3 - The article details the asset allocation ratios for both models, explaining that there is no optimal allocation ratio as it depends on individual risk preferences and return objectives [3][55] - It highlights the importance of understanding the long-term returns and volatility of underlying assets, as well as their correlations, to make informed allocation decisions [56][57] Group 4 - The article analyzes the performance of the Permanent and All Weather Portfolios in the US market, showing that both portfolios have lower volatility compared to individual asset classes while achieving returns close to equities [14][18] - It provides a detailed examination of the historical performance of these portfolios, including their maximum drawdowns and annual returns over the years [10][11][12]