众所周知，马云不仅是商界大佬，而且在房地产领域也有其"独到的见解"。早在2017年马云在接受采访时表示："未来房价如葱"。当时房地产市场正处于上 升周期，具有较好的赚钱效应。为此，很多投资客都在连夜排队买房，而开发商也都在疯狂拿地。所以，大家对马云当时的言论并没有太在意。 而在未来5年内，各地房价调整的趋势仍会继续下去。实际上，与房价同时贬值的，可能还有存款。主要原因是，现在存款利率越来越低，以目前的存款利 率很难跑赢通货膨胀。与此同时，由于货币超发严重，未来几年通胀的可能性很大。这意味着老百姓放在银行里面存款的购买力会越来越弱。对此，有业内 人士提醒大家，未来5年，把存款换成这4个资产，或将衣食无忧。 第一，应多学几样技能 由于实体经济不景气，很多企业效益下滑，就选择裁员降薪。如果你手里掌握着一项或者多项技能，那被裁员的可能性就会大幅降低。此外，就算企业倒闭 了，手里掌握技术的人才也会很快找到满意的工作。 与此同时，如果你手里掌握着多技能之长，又觉得现在的公司薪水太低，也可以利用业余时间去做一份副业。比如，杨亮就是在TI公司上班，现在公司因效 益不好，都在降薪或裁员。而杨亮则可以利用业余时间，去开网约车，这 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Beijing Housing Provident Fund Management Center announced that the interest for the 2024-2025 fiscal year will be set at 1.5%, which is significantly higher than current bank deposit rates, providing a stable investment opportunity for employees' provident fund accounts [1][2]. Group 1: Interest Rates and Benefits - The interest rate for personal provident fund accounts is set at 1.5%, which allows for a potential annual interest of 1500 yuan on a 100,000 yuan balance, surpassing bank deposit interest by 550 yuan [1]. - The provident fund employs an annual compound interest model, which can yield approximately 16,300 yuan over 10 years for a 100,000 yuan balance, compared to 15,000 yuan from a bank's simple interest model [2]. - The stability of the provident fund interest rate is guaranteed by national policy, remaining unaffected by market fluctuations, unlike bank rates which have seen a significant decline [2]. Group 2: Housing Loan Advantages - The provident fund offers a lower interest rate for first-time home loans at 2.6%, which is 0.45 percentage points lower than commercial loans, potentially saving borrowers about 53,600 yuan in interest over 20 years [3]. - The fund allows for flexible withdrawal scenarios for housing-related expenses, including rent and home purchases, enhancing its utility for contributors [3]. - Contributors can check their interest accrual through various platforms, ensuring they are aware of their benefits and rights [3].

Core Viewpoint - The significant increase in household deposits, amounting to 11.09 trillion yuan from January to July this year, reflects public concerns about the economic outlook and a risk-averse mentality [1] Group 1: Deposit Appreciation - The continuous interest rate cuts in 2023 have led to historically low bank deposit rates, resulting in deposit interest income falling below inflation rates, indicating a risk of asset depreciation for savers [5] - Investors are encouraged to seek alternative appreciation channels, such as low-risk bond funds, and to diversify their asset allocation based on their risk tolerance [5] Group 2: Deposit Safety - Many individuals mistakenly believe that depositing money in banks is entirely safe; however, risks still exist, particularly for elderly individuals who may be vulnerable to scams due to reliance on others for banking transactions [6] - The risks associated with bank-distributed financial products should not be overlooked, as there have been cases where customers faced difficulties accessing their funds due to unsuitable purchases [6] - Choosing to deposit in smaller banks for higher interest rates carries risks, as evidenced by cases of bank failures; diversifying deposits and avoiding exceeding the 500,000 yuan limit in a single bank are effective risk mitigation strategies [6] Group 3: Deposit Liquidity - Many individuals opt for long-term fixed deposits to achieve higher interest rates, but this can lead to poor liquidity, resulting in significant interest losses if funds need to be accessed early [7] - It is advisable to stagger deposit terms by dividing funds into different fixed deposit durations to balance yield with liquidity needs [9] - Overall, while enjoying the security of bank deposits, individuals should focus on appreciation, safety, and liquidity of their deposits, actively taking measures to prevent risks and ensure wealth preservation [9]

Core Viewpoint - The current economic environment in China is leading to a depreciation of wealth primarily held in cash and real estate, with expectations of continued downward pressure over the next three years [1][3]. Group 1: Real Estate - Real estate values have been declining since the second half of 2021, spreading from third-tier cities to some second-tier cities and even provincial capitals, with prices reverting to levels seen three years ago [1]. - Families with multiple properties are experiencing significant asset depreciation, with greater losses correlated to the number of properties owned [1]. Group 2: Cash and Inflation - The purchasing power of cash is decreasing due to loose monetary policies resulting in rising prices, with daily expenses significantly increasing; for example, grocery shopping costs have risen from 100-200 yuan to at least 300-500 yuan [3]. - Bank deposit interest rates are falling, with rates above 3% becoming rare, which is insufficient to counteract inflation, leading to a decline in the real value of savings [3]. Group 3: Alternative Assets - There are suggestions to invest in gold as a hedge against inflation, but gold investment carries risks due to price volatility; it is considered a good investment only when prices fall below $1200 per ounce, while risks increase significantly when prices exceed $1800 per ounce [5]. - The domestic gold market has barriers to entry, making it difficult to liquidate investments, and the probability of investment losses is notable [5]. Group 4: Valuable Assets and Skills - Urban land resources are becoming scarce due to ongoing population influx into major cities, making them a valuable asset for the wealthy and real estate companies, as they can serve as collateral for loans during financial difficulties [7]. - Possessing professional skills is crucial during inflationary periods, as skilled workers have more job opportunities and relatively stable incomes, which can be supplemented through part-time work [9]. - Maintaining good health is emphasized as a priceless asset, reducing medical expenses and improving quality of life, especially as healthcare costs rise during inflation [11]. - Mastery of financial management skills is essential for effectively managing personal wealth, mitigating risks, and achieving asset appreciation in a complex economic environment [11].

Core Viewpoint - The second-hand housing market in major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Hangzhou is experiencing a slight decline in transaction enthusiasm, with a 6% month-on-month decrease in April 2025, while year-on-year growth has narrowed to 10% [2][3]. Group 1: Market Trends - The number of new listings in major cities showed a significant decrease in April 2025, with Beijing and Shanghai seeing increases of 17% and 60% respectively, while Shenzhen and Hangzhou experienced declines of 7% and 29% [3]. - High-end properties in Beijing, Shanghai, and Hangzhou have seen a steady increase in listing activity, particularly in the price segments above 30 million yuan, which reached a peak since the beginning of 2025 [3][4]. - The listing activity for larger properties (over 160 square meters) remains stable or slightly increasing in Beijing, Shanghai, and Hangzhou, while Shenzhen shows a notable decline in this segment [4]. Group 2: Owner and Investor Sentiment - The trade war and economic slowdown have shifted owner and investor mindsets, leading to a rise in short-term listings due to three main factors: a desire to cash out at high prices, a need for liquidity to optimize asset allocation, and a trend of upgrading to new properties [10]. - The demand for high-end and improved housing remains robust, with the proportion of transactions over 10 million yuan increasing in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen, indicating a preference for quality assets amidst limited new supply [12][13]. Group 3: Price Stability and Investment Recommendations - The price stability of high-end properties in core urban areas is evident, with price fluctuations remaining within 10%, and a significant percentage of properties in Shanghai and Shenzhen showing price increases [17]. - Investors are advised to focus on core urban areas, select larger improved housing products, and avoid properties in suburban areas or those lacking functional amenities to mitigate risks in the current market environment [21][23].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the "Permanent Portfolio" investment strategy proposed by Harry Browne, emphasizing its stability and lower risk compared to traditional stock investments, while achieving a respectable return over the past decade [1][6]. Investment Strategy Summary - The investment strategy involves a 25% allocation to four asset classes: stocks, bonds, gold, and cash, using specific ETFs for each category [2]. - The backtest results over nearly ten years show a total return of 102%, with an annualized return of 7.33% and a maximum drawdown of 11.09%, indicating a stable performance [3][4]. Performance Comparison - The performance of the Permanent Portfolio is compared to the CSI 300 index, showing a smoother return curve and lower volatility [3]. - The maximum drawdown of the selected stock ETF (Boshi S&P 500) is 31.17%, significantly higher than the Permanent Portfolio's maximum drawdown of 11.09%, highlighting the risk management aspect of the strategy [5]. Investment Philosophy - The article emphasizes that most wealth is accumulated through one's profession rather than through high-risk investments, advocating for a cautious approach to investing [6][7]. - It warns against the dangers of significant losses that can erase years of hard work, suggesting that a stable and gradual increase in wealth is preferable to high-risk strategies [7]. Adaptation of the Strategy - The Permanent Portfolio concept is presented as a flexible framework that can be tailored to individual circumstances, encouraging investors to optimize asset selection and allocation based on their specific needs [7].