2025 年 5 月 7 日 公司研究 短期业绩承压，25 年积极应对 ——千味央厨（001215.SZ）2024 年年报及 25 年一季报点评 要点 事件：千味央厨发布 2024 年年报与 2025 年一季报，公司 24 年实现总营收 18.68 亿元、同比下滑 1.71%，实现归母净利润 0.84 亿元、同比下滑 37.67%，扣非 归母净利润 0.83 亿元、同比下滑 32.57%，剔除股权激励费用影响，24 年归母 净利润 1 亿元、同比下滑 31.99%。25Q1 总营收 4.7 亿元、同比增加 1.5%，归 母净利润 0.21 亿元、同比下降 37.98%。 24 年传统产品收入有所承压，直营渠道保持稳健发展。1）产品端，24 年油炸 类/烘焙类/蒸煮类/菜肴类及其他产品收入分别为 7.67/3.40/3.93/3.60 亿元，同 比-11.87%/-4.28%/+5.41%/+21.84%，油炸类和烘焙类产品收入承压，主要受 部分老品生命周期影响、同时新品仍处于上市初期贡献有限，油条、芝麻球、春 卷、蛋挞皮等传统单品收入有所下滑。蒸煮类产品收入增长主要为咸包产品收入 贡献、以及子公司味宝食品并表 ...

然而，经销模式收入却出现下滑，同比下降6.04%。经销渠道主要面向中小餐饮企业，受市场竞争和消 费者追求性价比的影响，餐饮企业纷纷降价，导致公司经销收入承压。尽管公司通过增加销售人员、推 行全国大单品策略等措施积极应对，但经销渠道的恢复仍需时间。 核心产品收入下滑，预制菜成唯一亮点 千味央厨的主营业务是为餐饮企业提供定制化、标准化的预制半成品，产品主要分为油炸类、烘焙类、 蒸煮类和菜肴类四大类。2024年，油炸类和烘焙类产品收入均出现下滑，其中油炸类产品收入同比下降 11.87%，烘焙类产品收入也出现明显下降。核心单品如主食油条、芝麻球、春卷和蛋挞皮的销售收入 下滑，直接影响了整体业绩。 相比之下，蒸煮类产品收入有所上升，主要得益于咸包产品的增长以及子公司味宝食品的并表效应。菜 肴类及其他产品收入增幅显著，同比增长273.39%，成为公司业绩的唯一亮点。公司在预制菜领域通过 优化选品和加大新品研发，成功在市场上快速放量。 销售模式调整，直营与经销收入分化 成本与费用压力加大，净利润大幅缩水 2025年5月4日，千味央厨发布了2024年年报。报告显示，公司2024年实现营业收入18.68亿元，同比下 降1.71 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and it is maintained [1] Core Views - The company faced short-term operational pressure in 2024, with a focus on new products and new channel breakthroughs in 2025 to drive growth [4][7] - The revenue for 2024 was 1.868 billion yuan, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 84 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 31.99% [4][9] - The company is expected to achieve revenue growth in 2025 and 2026, with projected revenues of 1.970 billion yuan and 2.141 billion yuan respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 5.46% and 8.65% [9][11] Company Overview - The latest closing price is 25.92 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 2.5 billion yuan [3] - The company has a debt-to-asset ratio of 21.5% and a price-to-earnings ratio of 29.79 [3] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a gross margin of 23.66% and a net margin of 4.48%, with an increase in market expenses impacting net profit [6] - The company’s revenue from various product categories showed mixed performance, with significant growth in frozen prepared dishes [5][7] - The first quarter of 2025 showed a revenue of 470 million yuan, with a net profit of 21 million yuan, indicating a year-on-year decline in net profit [4][9] Earnings Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected to be 1.11 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 23, 20, and 18 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [9][11] - The company aims to narrow overall expense ratios in 2025, which is expected to help restore net profit margins [8]

Core Viewpoint - Qianwei Yangchu, known as the "first stock of the catering supply chain" in A-shares, reported a decline in both revenue and net profit for the year, attributing the performance pressure to the competitive market environment [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, Qianwei Yangchu achieved operating revenue of approximately 1.868 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.71% [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was about 84 million yuan, down 37.67% year-on-year [2]. - The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was approximately 83 million yuan, a decline of 32.57% year-on-year [2]. - Excluding the impact of stock incentives, the net profit attributable to shareholders was 100 million yuan, a decrease of 31.99% [2]. Product Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from fried products decreased by 11.87% to 766.88 million yuan [4]. - Revenue from baked goods fell by 4.28% to 340.07 million yuan [4]. - Revenue from steamed products increased by 5.41% to 392.80 million yuan [4]. - Revenue from dishes and others rose significantly by 21.84% to 359.65 million yuan [4]. - Overall, total revenue from main products was approximately 1.859 billion yuan, down 1.79% year-on-year [4]. Sales Channels and Strategies - The company primarily serves chain restaurants, group meals, hotels, banquets, and new retail brands with customized and standardized frozen products [9]. - In 2024, the revenue from the distribution channel was approximately 1.051 billion yuan, accounting for 56.50% of total revenue, with a year-on-year decline of 6.04% [12]. - Direct sales revenue was approximately 808.80 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 4.34% [10][11]. - The number of major clients increased by 8.81% to 173 by the end of 2024 [10]. Future Plans - In 2025, the company plans to increase investment in research and development, production resources, and customer expansion in the baking and frozen prepared dishes segments to meet customer demands for rapid innovation [1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by 10%-20% over the next six months [7][22]. Core Views - The company continues to face operational pressure, but is focusing on new product growth to drive recovery. Despite a slight decline in revenue for 2024, there is a positive outlook for 2025 as the company aims to enhance product structure and optimize channel efficiency [7][8]. - The company reported total revenue of 1.87 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 1.7%, and a net profit of 0.08 billion yuan, down 37.7% year-on-year. In Q1 2025, revenue increased by 1.5% to 0.47 billion yuan, but net profit decreased by 38.0% [7][8]. Financial Summary - **2024 Financial Performance**: - Total revenue: 1,868 million yuan - Year-on-year growth: -1.7% - Net profit: 84 million yuan - Year-on-year growth: -37.7% - Gross margin: 23.7% [7][8]. - **2025 Financial Projections**: - Total revenue expected to reach 1,942 million yuan, with a growth rate of 4.0% - Net profit projected at 104 million yuan, with a growth rate of 23.7% - Earnings per share (EPS) forecasted at 1.07 yuan [7][11]. - **Long-term Projections**: - Revenue expected to grow to 2,137 million yuan in 2026 and 2,357 million yuan in 2027, with corresponding net profits of 124 million yuan and 144 million yuan [7][11]. Product and Market Insights - The core product lines are under pressure, with specific categories showing varied performance: fried products down 11.9%, baked goods down 4.3%, steamed products up 5.4%, and dishes up 21.8% [7]. - The company is focusing on expanding its frozen prepared dishes and baked goods segments, with significant investment in production resources and R&D to meet customer demand [7][8]. Valuation Metrics - The company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 31 for 2024, decreasing to 25 in 2025, and further to 21 in 2026, indicating a positive trend in valuation as earnings improve [7][11]. - The target price is set at 28.9 yuan, corresponding to a P/E of 27 for 2025 [7][8].