食品饮料/饮料乳品 新乳业（002946.SZ） 2025 年 11 月 03 日 投资评级：增持（维持） | 日期 | 2025/10/31 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 17.42 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 21.49/11.80 | | 总市值(亿元) | 149.93 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 148.19 | | 总股本(亿股) | 8.61 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 8.51 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 54.54 | 低温品类快速增长，盈利能力稳步提升 ——公司信息更新报告 张宇光（分析师） 张思敏（分析师） zhangyuguang@kysec.cn zhangsimin@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790525080001 2025Q3 利润超预期，维持"增持"评级 股价走势图 数据来源：聚源 -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 2024-11 2025-03 2025-07 新乳业 沪深300 相关研究报告 《2025Q2 利润超预期，产品结构持续 优化—公司信息更新报告》-2025.8.31 《2025Q1 利润超预期，结 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 21 yuan [2][9]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 8.434 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 3.49%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 623 million yuan, up 31.48% year-on-year [2]. - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 2.908 billion yuan, a 4.42% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 226 million yuan, reflecting a 27.67% year-on-year growth [2]. - The company continues to see strong growth in its low-temperature dairy segment, with double-digit growth rates, while new product contributions have reached new highs [9]. - The sales structure and expense ratios have been optimized, leading to a net profit margin of 7.99% in Q3 2025, an increase of 1.45 percentage points year-on-year [9]. - The company is expected to outperform the industry due to its strong product and organizational capabilities, with a focus on high-margin low-temperature dairy products [9]. Financial Summary - For 2024A, total revenue is projected at 10.665 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of -2.9%. By 2025E, revenue is expected to rise to 11.201 billion yuan, reflecting a 5.0% growth [5]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 538 million yuan in 2024A, increasing to 717 million yuan in 2025E, which represents a growth rate of 24.8% [5]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is estimated to be 0.62 yuan for 2024A, increasing to 0.83 yuan for 2025E [5].